Hump Day: Early July Betting Wins Stacking Up @ BrownBagBets

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins

Pick: Red Sox ML / Wager: 5%

Miami’s Struggles at Home

The Miami Marlins have been one of the less reliable teams in baseball this season, particularly at home where their performance has been notably poor. They are among the bottom six teams in the league in terms of home ATS, indicating a significant struggle to cover spreads and win games convincingly. This matchup does not bode well for them given their inconsistency and tendency for non-competitive outings.

Trevor Rogers’ Home Woes

Trevor Rogers has been a consistent fade, especially when pitching at home. While he has won his last two starts, the broader trend has been grim: the Marlins are 1-8 when Rogers starts at home, and all eight of those losses have come by two or more runs. This pattern suggests a fundamental issue in both his performance and the team’s ability to support him effectively. Rogers’ inconsistency and the Marlins’ struggles to back him up make this a prime spot to bet against Miami.

Boston’s Advantage with Brayan Bello

On the flip side, Brayan Bello has been a reliable starter for the Red Sox, particularly on the road. Boston is 6-2 in Bello’s road starts, highlighting his capability to deliver strong performances away from Fenway Park. Bello has the potential to pitch a gem against a Marlins lineup that has been inconsistent and underwhelming for much of the season.

The Red Sox have the offensive firepower and pitching depth to take advantage of Miami’s vulnerabilities. Bello’s ability to shut down opposing offenses combined with Boston’s potent lineup creates a favorable scenario for the Red Sox to secure a win.

MLB: Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Astros ML / Wager: 6%

Houston's Resilience and Form

The Houston Astros demonstrated impressive resilience in their near-comeback against the Blue Jays last night, highlighting their never-say-die attitude. Despite the loss, the Astros have been on a roll, winning 10 of their last 12 games. This stretch of success has kept them in a strong position in the AL West, and their current form suggests they are primed to bounce back swiftly. The Astros' ability to mount a challenge even when significantly behind shows the depth and tenacity of their lineup, which will be crucial in tonight's game.

Pitching Matchup

Ronel Blanco has been a revelation for the Astros recently. Over his last four outings, Blanco has posted a stellar 1.75 ERA, indicating that he has found a groove on the mound. His recent performances give confidence that he can handle the Blue Jays' lineup effectively.

On the flip side, Yusei Kikuchi has struggled mightily for the Blue Jays. Over his last three starts, Kikuchi has been tagged with a 10.64 ERA, suggesting that opposing hitters are seeing the ball well out of his hand. The Blue Jays are also in a rough patch, with a 4-10 record in their last 14 games. This recent form doesn't bode well for their chances against a red-hot Astros team.

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies

Pick: Brewers -1.5 / Wager: 5%

Hudson’s Struggles at Home

Dakota Hudson’s performance at Coors Field has been dismal, to say the least. Pitching in Denver, with its high altitude and hitter-friendly conditions, has proven disastrous for Hudson, who currently holds an 8.51 ERA at home. Opposing batters are feasting on his pitches, hitting .361 against him in Colorado. The Rockies’ record when Hudson starts at home is a bleak 1-7, and they’ve lost his last five home starts by at least four runs, accumulating a run differential of -26 in that span. This combination of poor individual performance and the Rockies’ general struggles makes them a prime candidate to bet against.

Brewers’ Improved Offense and Rea’s Road Success

The Milwaukee Brewers are showing signs of breaking out of their recent power slump, and playing in Denver could further fuel their offensive resurgence. Coors Field tends to amplify offensive production, and the Brewers could capitalize on this against a struggling Hudson.

Colin Rea, on the other hand, has been a reliable starter on the road for the Brewers. They have won seven of his eight road starts, which speaks volumes about his ability to handle away games effectively. Rea’s consistent performance away from​ home has been strong.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Texas Rangers

Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ +140 / Wager: 5%

Rangers' Home Advantage and Recent Form

The Texas Rangers appear to have turned a corner after a rough six-game losing streak on the road. Their recent back-to-back wins suggest a resurgence, and they have looked particularly strong playing at Globe Life Field, where they recorded their fifth consecutive home win last night. The comfort of home seems to bring out the best in them, providing a favorable backdrop for tonight's game.

Pitching Matchup

Jon Gray will take the mound for the Rangers, and despite some recent struggles, his overall performance this season has been solid. Gray had an impressive start to the year, posting a 1.52 ERA through April and May. While he has had a few poor outings recently, his potential to deliver strong performances remains high. A return to form at home, where the Rangers have been dominant, is highly possible.

For the Padres, rookie Adam Mazur presents a significant risk. Mazur has struggled with consistency, as evidenced by his 7.25 ERA. The Padres' decision to give him another start might not yield favorable results, especially against a Rangers lineup that seems to be regaining its confidence and offensive prowess.