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Euro 2024 (Round of 16): Austria vs. Turkey

Pick: Both teams to score - yes / Wager: 3%

Pick: Over 2.5 goals / Wager: 3%

Pick: Turkey Over 1.5 goals @ +220 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Austria Over 1.5 goals @ +100 / Wager: 3%

High-Scoring Potential

This Round of 16 clash between Austria and Turkey promises to be a thrilling encounter with plenty of goal-scoring opportunities. Both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring matches during the group stage, with Austria scoring six goals and conceding four, while Turkey managed five goals but also let in five. Austria topped Group D, surprising many by finishing ahead of France and the Netherlands. Meanwhile, Turkey battled through a tough Group F, proving their mettle with some solid performances.

Austria has displayed a potent attacking force, netting the second-most goals in the tournament so far, just behind Germany. Their high pressing system under Ralf Rangnick, characterized by a 4-4-2 formation, has been effective, albeit leaving them vulnerable at times. This setup has allowed Austria to dominate possession and create numerous chances, particularly through their fullbacks, who often find themselves in one-on-one situations, leading to dangerous crosses. Turkey’s defensive struggles, highlighted by their allowance of the fourth-most crosses into the penalty area, provide Austria with a clear path to exploit.

Turkey, on the other hand, thrives in transition and counter-attacks, capable of launching dangerous long balls over the top. Despite some defensive frailties and struggles in building out from the back, they have excellent ball carriers and technicians who can navigate Austria’s high press. Turkey’s manager, Vincenzo Montella, is adept tactically and will likely set up his team to counter Austria’s aggressive pressing, making for a very open and transitional match.

Defensive Vulnerabilities and Tactical Insights

Both Austria and Turkey have shown significant defensive vulnerabilities, ranking in the bottom five for expected goals allowed during the group stage. Austria’s pressing system, while effective in creating offensive opportunities, leaves them exposed at the back, especially against teams capable of breaking the press with long balls and quick transitions. Turkey’s defense, despite being capable in possession, has not been particularly solid, as evidenced by the high number of expected goals they’ve conceded.

Austria’s approach of building up in a 3-1-6 formation, often dominating the midfield and creating chances through the wings, aligns perfectly against a Turkey side that struggles to defend crosses. Conversely, Turkey’s reliance on direct play and their ability to exploit high defensive lines with speed and precision makes them a formidable threat on the counter.

The tactical battle between Rangnick and Montella adds another layer of intrigue to this matchup. Rangnick’s pressing system requires precise timing and high intensity, which Austria has managed well so far. However, Montella’s tactical acumen and Turkey’s ability to adapt and exploit spaces left by Austria could make this a very high-event match.

Given the offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, this match is likely to see plenty of action at both ends of the pitch. We have projected a high probability of goals, making the over 2.5 goals bet, as well as both teams to score, attractive options. Additionally, given the individual offensive strengths, both Austria and Turkey are likely to score multiple goals, adding further value to the bets on each team scoring over 1.5 goals.

Euro 2024 (Round of 16): Netherlands vs Romania

Pick: Netherlands -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 3%

Strong Start for the Netherlands

The Netherlands emerged from their group with a mix of results, including one win, one draw, and one loss. Despite this, the Oranje boast the talent and depth to be a formidable force in the knockout stages. Finishing third in the group typically sets up a tough first-round opponent, but the Netherlands find themselves facing Romania, a team they are well-equipped to handle.

Romania topped Group G with a modest four points and a +1 goal differential. They’ve allowed three goals in the tournament so far, with two of those coming in the first 30 minutes of play. This vulnerability suggests the Netherlands can capitalize early. The Dutch are expected to dominate possession and pressure Romania from the onset, making an early goal highly likely. This aligns well with the Netherlands’ strategy of taking control of the match early, which is why a bet on them leading at 30 minutes offers good value.

Cody Gakpo has been a standout performer for the Netherlands, scoring twice in the tournament already. His impressive season at Liverpool, where he registered eight goals and five assists, demonstrates his capability. Under Ronald Koeman’s management, Gakpo’s role is crucial. His speed, agility, and ability to cut past defenders make him a significant threat to Romania’s defense, which conceded 20 shots (nine on target) in their group stage loss to Belgium. Gakpo is well-positioned to exploit these weaknesses and potentially add to his goal tally.

Romania’s Tactical Approach and Challenges

Romania’s pragmatic approach under manager Edward Iordănescu emphasizes the importance of a strong start, as evidenced by their three goals inside the first hour against Ukraine. However, their attacking output dwindled significantly thereafter, with only 1.37 non-penalty expected goals and a single non-penalty big chance in the remaining group matches. Despite these offensive struggles, they advanced by scoring the most goals in Group E.

A key absence for Romania will be left-back Nicușor Bancu, who is suspended after receiving a second yellow card in their final group match against Slovakia. Romania’s gameplay intensity notably decreased once they secured progression, which might not bode well against a relentless Dutch side.

The Netherlands had a mixed group stage, notably holding France to a 0-0 draw but conceding three times in a thrilling 3-2 loss to Austria. Despite this, the xG (expected goals) metrics suggested they were the superior side, hinting at underlying strength. Manager Ronald Koeman’s tactical adjustment against Austria, switching from a 4-3-3 to a 4-2-3-1, might prove crucial in this knockout stage, offering better midfield control and offensive options.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees

Pick: Under 8.5 / Wager: 3%

Pitching Analysis

New York’s Luis Gil is poised for a rebound performance after struggling in his last two outings. Facing tough matchups against Baltimore and the red-hot Mets contributed to his recent downgraded performances. However, Gil has demonstrated his ability to be an effective pitcher earlier in the season, showcasing a repertoire that can shut down even potent lineups when he's on form. The Reds' recent offensive struggles further bolster the case for a strong outing from Gil.

Gil’s pitching metrics have shown promise, particularly when he can harness his control and effectively mix his pitches. His fastball can overpower hitters, and his off-speed pitches have induced swings and misses. The Reds' lineup, which has been underperforming, provides an ideal opportunity for Gil to regain his confidence and command.

Reds’ Offensive Struggles

Cincinnati's offense has been in a notable slump, getting shut out in two of their last three games. This lack of production is a significant concern as they face a Yankees team that has been generally solid on the mound. The Reds have struggled to generate consistent offensive momentum, and their lineup lacks the depth and power to pose a consistent threat.

Given their recent form, it’s reasonable to expect the Reds will continue to have difficulty putting runs on the board. The combination of facing a motivated Gil and their own struggles at the plate points towards a low-scoring output for Cincinnati. Even if the Yankees manage to put up five or six runs, the Reds' offensive woes should help keep the game’s total score under 8.5 runs.

The combination of Gil’s potential rebound and Cincinnati’s recent struggles at the plate makes the Under 8.5 a compelling pick.

MLB: Houston Astros at Toronto Blue Jays

Pick: Astros -1.5 / Wager: 5%

Astros’ Hot Streak

Houston Astros continue to deliver solid performances, currently riding a 10-1 run. This impressive streak has seen all of their victories come by two or more runs, showcasing their ability to win convincingly. Despite a quieter day at the plate yesterday against a spot starter, the Astros still managed to cash in and secure a win. The consistency in their performance, even when not firing on all cylinders, is a testament to their depth and quality.

Houston's bats are expected to rebound today, with several key hitters boasting strong splits against Blue Jays' starter Jose Berrios. The Astros’ lineup is capable of causing significant damage, particularly when facing a pitcher with vulnerabilities that they can exploit. This offensive potential, coupled with their current form, makes them a formidable opponent.

Pitching Matchup

While Houston is sending one of its lesser starters, Spencer Arrighetti, to the mound, the recent trend has seen the Astros' starters provide good length, allowing the bullpen to be fresh and effective. Manager Dusty Baker is likely to have a quick hook for Arrighetti if he struggles, ensuring that the game does not get out of hand early. This strategic approach has worked well for the Astros during their hot streak.

On the other side, Toronto’s bullpen has been a notable weak point, often failing to hold leads or keep games close. This liability could be crucial, especially if Berrios struggles early. Houston’s lineup, with its depth and experience, is well-equipped to take advantage of any weaknesses and put up runs in bunches.

Toronto’s Home Struggles

The Blue Jays have struggled against the spread at home, with a 15-27 record ATS. This indicates a tendency to either lose outright or win by narrow margins, often failing to cover larger spreads. Given Houston's form and the propensity to win by multiple runs, this matchup strongly favors the Astros, even on the road.

With Houston's current form, solid offensive matchups, and Toronto’s bullpen issues, backing the Astros -1.5 at a nice price provides a compelling betting opportunity. The expectation of a quick hook for Arrighetti if needed, combined with Houston's ability to bounce back offensively, further strengthens the case for this pick.