Celebrate the Fourth of July with BrownBagBets: Baseball, Barbecue, and Big Wins!

July is out of the gates strong, sitting at 120% of our starting bankroll. Today is July 4th, and we have an extensive schedule of MLB games to enjoy. Is there a better way to celebrate the Fourth of July than by barbecuing and watching baseball? We can’t think of one — except, of course, making some money while watching that baseball.

Adding to the excitement, we have a single Copa America quarterfinal today. Argentina, with superstar Lionel Messi expected in the lineup, will continue their defense of the title with a matchup against Ecuador at Houston’s NRG Stadium. This promises to be a thrilling encounter, ripe with opportunities for strategic betting.

Let’s leverage our early success in July and capitalize on today’s action-packed slate. Here’s to a profitable and enjoyable Fourth of July with BrownBagBets!

Copa America Quarterfinal: Argentina vs Ecuador

Pick: Argentina ML + Under 3.5 Goals / Wager: 4%

Pick: Argentina Win to Nil / Wager: 5%

Argentina’s Dominance and Defensive Prowess

Argentina enters their quarterfinal matchup against Ecuador with significant momentum, having finished atop Group A with a perfect 3-0-0 record. The Albiceleste have not only won all their group stage matches but have also kept a clean sheet throughout, outscoring their opponents 5-0. This stellar defensive performance underscores Argentina’s ability to control matches and effectively shut down opposing attacks.

Even with the potential absence of Lionel Messi, who is recovering from hamstring issues but has been practicing, Argentina’s depth and talent across the squad are formidable. Players like Lautaro Martínez and Paulo Dybala are capable of stepping up in the attacking third, ensuring the team’s offensive threat remains potent. Defensively, Argentina is anchored by experienced players such as Nicolás Otamendi and Lisandro Martínez, who have provided a solid foundation for their success.

Ecuador’s Struggles and Tactical Challenges

Ecuador, on the other hand, comes into this quarterfinal on shakier ground. They managed a 1-1-1 record in Group B, finishing second by a slim goal differential. Ecuador’s journey included a draw against Mexico and less convincing performances in their other group matches. The team has struggled to find consistent form and faces a daunting task against a well-organized Argentine side.

Ecuador’s captain, Enner Valencia, received a red card in their opener, disrupting their early plans. Despite securing a spot in the knockout stages, Ecuador has shown vulnerabilities, particularly in their attack. Their recent 0-0 draw with Mexico highlighted their difficulties in breaking down well-organized defenses, a challenge they are likely to face again against Argentina.

Head-to-Head Advantage

When these teams met in World Cup Qualifying in 2023, Argentina dominated the match, securing a 1-0 victory while winning the xG battle 2.3 to 0.1. Ecuador managed just three shots and failed to capitalize on five counterattack opportunities, not registering a single shot from these transitions. This past performance further illustrates Argentina’s defensive solidity and Ecuador’s struggles against high-caliber opponents.

Match Expectations and Betting Insights

Argentina’s tactical approach under manager Lionel Scaloni emphasizes discipline and structure, which should help them manage the game effectively and limit Ecuador’s chances. Given their defensive strength and Ecuador’s attacking struggles, this match is set to be controlled and low-scoring.

Copa America knockout matches go straight to penalty kicks if tied after regular time, adding further incentive for Ecuador to sit deep in their 5-3-2 formation and try to deny Argentina high-quality chances. However, based on their previous encounter, it seems unlikely that Ecuador will be able to hold off Argentina for a full 90 minutes.

The combination of Argentina’s winning potential with under 3.5 goals reflects the expected game dynamics. Additionally, considering Ecuador’s offensive challenges and Argentina’s robust defense, the value on Argentina winning to nil at -110 is appealing.

Expect Argentina to dominate possession, create scoring opportunities through their talented midfield and forward line, and secure a victory while keeping the scoreline relatively low. Whether Messi plays or not, Argentina’s depth ensures they have the quality to win without needing a high-scoring game.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 4%

Pitching Matchup

The New York Yankees look poised to break their recent losing streak with a favorable pitching matchup today. Frankie Montas will be on the mound for the Reds, having struggled mightily in his last four starts, all of which resulted in losses. Montas’ difficulties provide a prime opportunity for the Yankees’ hitters to capitalize and gain the upper hand early in the game.

Yankees’ Offense and Motivation

Despite losing the last two games to the Reds and struggling recently with seven losses in their last nine games, the Yankees’ lineup has shown resilience by mounting comebacks late in games, though falling short by one run. On this 4th of July, the Yankees will be highly motivated to turn things around and deliver a victory for their home fans. Playing at Yankee Stadium on a significant day like the 4th of July, the Yankees will have the home crowd’s energy boosting their performance. This added motivation can play a crucial role in securing a decisive victory.

With Frankie Montas’ recent poor performances and the Yankees’ need to break their losing streak, this game presents a good opportunity for the Yankees to cover the -1.5 run line. The combination of Montas’ struggles and the Yankees’ home advantage makes this a compelling bet. Betting on the Yankees to win by more than one run at +105 provides solid value.

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Guardians -1.5 / Wager: 4%

Pitching Matchup and Home Advantage

Cleveland has shown remarkable strength this season, reflected in their solid record and impressive run differential of +93. Ben Lively, the Guardians’ starting pitcher, has been a key factor in their success, particularly at home. Lively boasts a stellar 2.15 ERA at home, with the Guardians winning all five of his starts at Progressive Field. Notably, four of those victories were by two runs or more, highlighting their ability to secure decisive wins when Lively is on the mound.

Team Performance and Day Game Record

The White Sox, on the other hand, have struggled significantly, with a run differential of -157. Their inconsistency has been evident, and they have particularly faltered in day games, holding a poor 10-26 record. In contrast, the Guardians have thrived in day games, boasting a 21-10 record, further solidifying their edge in this matchup.

With Cleveland’s strong home performance, led by Ben Lively’s excellence, and their superior record in day games, the Guardians are well-positioned to cover the -1.5 run line against a struggling White Sox team. Betting on the Guardians to win by more than one run at this juncture presents a solid opportunity.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 6%

Recent Dominance and Offensive Firepower

The Boston Red Sox have demonstrated their offensive prowess in this series, dominating the Miami Marlins with consecutive victories by scores of 8-3 and 7-2. This offensive explosion is a testament to Boston’s lineup, which has consistently produced runs and pressured opposing pitchers. With Nick Pivetta on the mound, the Red Sox have a reliable starter who has navigated through tougher offenses recently and now faces a Miami team struggling to score.

Pitching Advantage and Bullpen Vulnerabilities

Nick Pivetta’s matchup against Miami’s lackluster offense is a significant advantage for Boston. The Marlins have one of the worst run-scoring records in MLB, making this an opportune moment for Pivetta to shine. Conversely, the Marlins’ starter, Kyle Tyler, is not expected to last long, leaving the game to a bullpen that has failed to contain the Red Sox bats in the past two games.

Given Boston’s recent dominance, potent offense, and favorable pitching matchup, the Red Sox are well-positioned to secure another decisive victory over the Marlins. Betting on the Red Sox to cover the -1.5 run line at +105 offers strong value in this context.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins

Pick: Twins -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 6%

Twins’ Strong Home Performance and Maeda’s Struggles

The Minnesota Twins are poised to rebound from their disappointing home loss last night. With Kenta Maeda struggling significantly, sporting a 5.76 ERA and facing a string of six consecutive losses in his starts, the Tigers are at a clear disadvantage. Maeda’s performance on the road has been particularly poor, as evidenced by his 8.53 ERA and opponents batting .324 against him. In just 25.1 innings away from home, he has allowed seven home runs, contributing to the Tigers losing his last four road starts by multiple runs, with a combined run differential of minus-18.

Ober’s Dominance at Home and Recent Form

In contrast, the Twins will rely on Bailey Ober, who has excelled at Target Field. Ober’s home/road splits highlight his preference for pitching at home, where he boasts a 3.62 ERA and has struck out 37 batters in 32.1 innings. Additionally, Ober has been impressive in his recent outings, allowing only four runs and 12 hits over 21.1 innings in his last three starts. His previous encounters with the Tigers this season further emphasize his dominance, having pitched six innings on two occasions, allowing just one run on five hits in total.

Given Maeda’s ongoing struggles and Ober’s solid performance at home, the Twins have a strong chance of securing a decisive victory. With the Twins winning their last seven games by two or more runs, betting on them to cover the -1.5 run line at +115 offers excellent value.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners

Pick: Orioles ML / Wager: 5%

Orioles’ Recent Success and Burnes’ Dominance

The Baltimore Orioles are in a strong position to capitalize on the Seattle Mariners’ current struggles. The Mariners have been in a slump at home, losing four straight at T-Mobile Park despite previously winning 14 of 15 there. Their offense has faltered significantly, producing only one run in the last two games against the Orioles.

Baltimore’s ace, Corbin Burnes, has been exceptional since the start of May, posting a 2.14 ERA and leading the Orioles to victories in seven of his last eight starts. Burnes’ ability to shut down opposing lineups provides a substantial advantage for Baltimore in this matchup. In contrast, Mariners’ pitcher Bryce Miller has been less effective, recording a 4.94 ERA since the beginning of May, which does not bode well against a potent Orioles lineup.

Mariners’ Offensive Struggles

Seattle’s offensive woes have been a key factor in their recent losses. The Mariners’ inability to generate runs has been glaring, and facing Burnes will likely compound their difficulties. Their lineup has failed to produce consistently, which has put additional pressure on their pitching staff. Even at home, where they were once dominant, the Mariners have not been able to find their rhythm.

Given the Orioles’ current form and Burnes’ impressive track record, Baltimore has a clear edge in this matchup. The Mariners’ ongoing offensive issues and Miller’s recent struggles make the Orioles’ money line a valuable pick for bettors.

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Atlanta Braves

Pick: Under 8 / Wager: 5%

San Francisco’s Struggles Against Right-Handed Pitching

The Giants have had significant trouble hitting right-handed pitchers on the road over the past month. With a .206 batting average and a .667 OPS against righties, San Francisco’s offense has been lackluster. This inability to generate runs against right-handers makes it likely that the Giants will struggle to score in this matchup.

Charlie Morton’s Home Dominance

Charlie Morton has been stellar at home recently. Following an eight-run hiccup against the Nationals, Morton has rebounded impressively, allowing just one run over his last 18.1 innings pitched at Truist Park. His strong form at home is expected to continue, limiting the Giants’ scoring opportunities.

Atlanta’s Offensive Woes

The Braves have also been struggling offensively. Over the last 15 days, they have hit only .223 with a .662 OPS. Atlanta’s recent lack of production at the plate adds to the likelihood of a low-scoring game, especially given their tendency to play in low-scoring contests.

Trend Towards Unders at Home

The Braves have consistently been involved in games hitting the under, particularly at home. They are the top under team in the league, and seven of their last eight home games have gone under the total, with one push, when facing teams with a sub-.500 record. This trend further supports the expectation of a low-scoring game in this matchup.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers

Pick: Under 8.5 / Wager: 5%

Zac Gallen’s Road Performance

Despite Zac Gallen’s struggles on the road this season, he has managed to limit damage effectively. With a 4.33 ERA away from home, Gallen has only allowed more than three runs once in his six road starts. His ability to mitigate scoring even when not at his best suggests a potential for a low-scoring game.

Dodgers’ Performance Against Right-Handed Pitching

The Los Angeles Dodgers boast one of the most potent lineups in baseball, but their performance against right-handers at home has been underwhelming recently. Over the past month, the Dodgers are hitting just .245 with a .794 OPS against right-handed pitchers at Dodger Stadium. This underperformance could continue, reducing overall run production in this game.

Landon Knack’s Consistency

Landon Knack has been a reliable presence on the mound for the Dodgers, especially against the Diamondbacks. He has yet to allow more than two runs in any of his outings this season. Knack’s consistency in keeping runs off the board provides additional confidence in the under hitting in this matchup.