Vegas Vibes: BrownBagBets Board Retreat & Thursday Night Picks

106% and Growing – Live from Las Vegas!
The BrownBagBets Board of Directors has officially landed in Las Vegas, Nevada, for our annual Board Retreat—not to be confused with our upcoming March Leadership Retreat. While January has us sitting at 106% of our starting bankroll, this weekend is about more than just celebrating our gains so far—it’s about setting the vision for what’s next.

A Board Retreat, BrownBag Style:
In true board retreat fashion, we’ll be hunkering down at Caesars properties to discuss the finer points of the BrownBagBets strategy:

• Strategic Planning: Reviewing past months, identifying strengths, and plotting how to crush 2025 with even more precision and flair.

• Budget Allocation: Deliberating how much Caesars Buffet is too much, while carefully allocating our personal tier credits for maximum value.

• Team Building: Rallying together over heated debates on the better sportsbook lounge: Caesars Palace or The LINQ.

• Market Research: Conducting thorough on-site analysis of Vegas betting lines, trends, and cocktail offerings.

This isn’t just any retreat—it’s a chance to combine business with pleasure, all while keeping our focus on delivering consistent wins for our community.

Live from Caesars – Divisional Round Playoffs:
We’ll be live at Caesars properties for the NFL Divisional Round playoffs, bringing you insights, updates, and maybe even some celebratory selfies. If you’re in the area, come find us or send us a message to connect!

Tonight’s Slate – Plays Across the Board:

• College Basketball Picks:

  • A strong slate of NCAAB action kicks off the weekend.

• NBA and NHL Action:

  • Select plays in both leagues round out tonight’s opportunities.

Final Thought – Building Momentum in January:
At 106% of our starting bankroll, January is shaping up to be a solid month, and this weekend is a perfect time to set the tone for what’s ahead. Whether you’re following our picks from afar or planning to meet us in Vegas, remember: this is about consistency, discipline, and fun along the way.

Let’s make tonight another step toward a winning month. We’re in Vegas, and we’re ready to crush it. Let’s go!

NCAAB: Elon at Drexel
Pick: Under 134.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
Both teams are known for their defensive prowess and slower pace of play, making this total feel a bit high. Drexel thrives in grind-it-out games, with five of their last six contests going under the total. Their defense holds opponents to 59.2 points per game at home, emphasizing their ability to control the tempo. Elon, despite a weaker record, has maintained solid defensive performances, allowing just 67 points per game across their last 12 matchups. Both teams also rank in the bottom third nationally in offensive efficiency, which could lead to extended possessions and fewer scoring opportunities.

Betting Indicators:

• Pace of Play: Both Drexel and Elon rank near the bottom nationally in adjusted tempo, favoring a slower game.

• Defensive Trends: Drexel has seen five of its last six games stay under the total, while Elon is on a 9-2 under run.

• Recent Matchups: In games against similarly defensively-minded opponents, neither team has managed to exceed 70 points.

Projected Outcome:
A defensive battle likely keeps this total under. Expect a game in the low 60s for both sides, with a projected scoreline around Drexel 67, Elon 60.

NCAAB: Marist at St. Peter’s
Pick: Marist +1 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
John Dunne makes his return to Jersey City, leading a red-hot Marist squad riding a nine-game win streak and sitting atop the Metro-Atlantic standings. Dunne's squad thrives on a controlled pace and disciplined defense, allowing just 65 points per game. Offensively, they lean on Josh Pascarelli (17.3 PPG) to deliver key buckets. Saint Peter’s, led by Bashir Mason, has struggled in conference play, going 0-4 in the MAAC before a gift-wrapped win against Canisius. The Peacocks rely heavily on former Richmond transfer Marcus Randolph, but when he's off—like in recent losses to Quinnipiac and Niagara (a combined 5-for-20 shooting)—they’ve faltered.

Betting Indicators:

• Marist on fire: Nine-game win streak and atop the MAAC standings.

• Defensive strength: Marist allows just 65 PPG, a hallmark of Dunne’s coaching style.

• Saint Peter’s offensive struggles: Peacocks rely heavily on Randolph, who has been inconsistent recently.

Projection:
Marist 64, Saint Peters 58

NCAAB: Michigan at Minnesota
Pick: Michigan -9 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
Michigan comes into this game on a roll, having won and covered five straight games in dominant fashion. Dusty May’s team, bolstered by several transfers, is putting up 94 points per game during this stretch and boasts five double-digit scorers, led by Vladislav Goldin, who has averaged 20 PPG over the last six contests. Minnesota, on the other hand, has yet to secure a Big Ten win, sitting at 0-6 in conference play. With Michigan's offense firing on all cylinders and Minnesota’s lack of firepower, this feels like a mismatch.

Betting Indicators:

• Michigan dominance: Scoring 94 PPG in their last five games and hitting 51.2% from the floor.

• Balanced attack: Five double-digit scorers provide consistency across the board.

• Minnesota struggles: 0-6 in Big Ten play and showing no signs of improvement.

Projection:
Michigan 86, Minnesota 69

NCAAB: Eastern Kentucky at Austin Peay
Pick: Eastern Kentucky -2.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
Eastern Kentucky has shown promise this season, including a strong performance against Louisville. The Colonels feature a potent duo in George Kimble III (17.9 PPG) and Devontae Booker (16.6 PPG), who have elevated their offense in recent games. Austin Peay, meanwhile, looks underpowered, scoring just 65.6 PPG on inefficient shooting (39.1% from the field, 30.5% from three). Outside of NC State transfer LJ Thomas (16.8 PPG), the Governors lack consistent scoring options, which has been evident in their struggles against more competitive teams.

Betting Indicators:

• Eastern Kentucky’s offense: Averaging over 85 PPG in recent contests, led by a strong 1-2 punch.

• Austin Peay’s inefficiency: Shooting just 39.1% from the field and 30.5% from deep.

• Head-to-head edge: Eastern Kentucky’s ability to score gives them a clear advantage in this matchup.

Projection:
Eastern Kentucky 76, Austin Peay 68

NCAAB: Santa Clara at Loyola Marymount
Pick: Santa Clara -4.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
Gersten Pavilion is often a challenging venue for visiting teams due to its unique acoustics and shooting backdrop, but Loyola Marymount’s recent form doesn’t inspire confidence. The Lions were completely outclassed in blowout losses to WCC powerhouses Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga, exposing their struggles against top-tier conference competition. Meanwhile, Santa Clara is arguably the hottest team in the WCC right now, winning nine of their last ten games. Herb Sendek’s Broncos put on a clinic against San Francisco, turning a close game into a 56-26 second-half demolition. Guard Carlos Stewart (18.3 PPG, 55% from three over his last three games) is playing at an elite level and should lead the Broncos to another convincing victory.

Betting Indicators:

• Santa Clara’s hot streak: Nine wins in their last ten games, including a blowout over USF.

• LMU struggles: Poor showings against Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga highlight their issues against top competition.

• Carlos Stewart’s form: Averaging 18.3 PPG and shooting 55% from three in his last three games.

Projection:
Santa Clara 78, Loyola Marymount 70

NHL: Edmonton Oilers at Colorado Avalanche
Pick: Under 6.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
The Oilers head into Denver riding a hot streak, winning seven of their last eight games, including a 5-3 victory over Minnesota last night. They’ve also proven capable on the second night of back-to-backs, winning four of their last five in such situations. However, tonight’s matchup against the Avalanche at Ball Arena should present a tougher challenge. Colorado has been thriving since acquiring Mackenzie Blackwood from the Sharks. Blackwood has posted stellar numbers in January, with a 1.49 GAA and .941 save percentage in six appearances, leading to an 8-2 record in his last ten starts. On the other side, Edmonton’s Stuart Skinner returns to the net after shutting out the Bruins and Kings in two of his last three starts. Both teams boast in-form goaltenders, which sets the stage for a low-scoring affair.

Betting Indicators:

• Goaltender dominance: Blackwood’s 1.49 GAA and .941 save percentage in January, paired with Skinner’s recent shutouts against top teams.

• Edmonton’s strong B2B form: Winning four of their last five on the second night of back-to-backs.

• Low-scoring trend in net: Colorado's recent reliance on Blackwood and Edmonton’s defensive strength with Skinner.

Projection:
Avalanche 3, Oilers 2

NBA: Houston Rockets at Sacramento Kings
Pick: Over 225 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:
This game features two surging offenses and a favorable matchup for a high-scoring outcome. The Kings have been on a roll under interim head coach Doug Christie, winning seven of their last eight games and averaging a blistering 121 points per game during that stretch. DeMar DeRozan has been pivotal, averaging 26 points over the last four contests and driving Sacramento to a 5-1 record to the over in their last six. Meanwhile, the Rockets are also heating up, with a five-game win streak that includes over results in four of those victories. Their recent offensive output was on full display in Denver last night, where they controlled the game with high efficiency.

The last time these teams met at Golden 1 Center, the final score comfortably hit the over, and with both offenses firing on all cylinders, a repeat seems likely.

Betting Indicators:

• Recent Over Trends: Kings are 5-1 to the over in their last six games; Rockets are over in four of their last five.

• High Offensive Output: Kings averaging 121 points per game across their last eight; Rockets showing upward offensive momentum during their win streak.

• Historical Matchup: Last meeting at Golden 1 Center went over with a 120-111 Sacramento win.

Projection:
Kings 122, Rockets 116

NBA: Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons
Pick: Pistons ML / Wager: 4%
Pick: Cade Cunningham over 34.5 Points + Assists / Wager: 2%

Analysis:
The Pistons have been one of the surprise stories this season, bouncing back from a historically poor campaign under Monty Williams to playoff contention. Detroit has won eight of their last ten games, largely thanks to Cade Cunningham, who is playing at an All-Star level. Cunningham's offensive leadership and ability to create plays have been key, and he could take advantage of a weakened Indiana defense.

The Pacers are without Bennedict Mathurin, a critical piece of their offense, and may also be missing Tyrese Haliburton for a second straight game due to a groin strain. Haliburton's absence would be a significant blow to Indiana's playmaking and scoring, leaving the Pacers vulnerable on the road. Detroit is playing with momentum and confidence, and this looks like a strong spot for them to continue their run.

Betting Indicators:

• Pistons' Recent Form: Detroit has won eight of their last 10 games, showing resilience and improved execution.

• Injury Concerns: Indiana is missing Mathurin and potentially Haliburton, significantly reducing their offensive firepower.

• Cunningham’s Role: Cade Cunningham is averaging high totals in points and assists, and without Indiana's primary scorers, he could thrive in this matchup.

Projection:
Pistons 112, Pacers 104