Building Momentum: Today’s MLB Picks and Bankroll Gains

Yesterday was a .500 day in terms of picks, but we still achieved a net gain in our bankroll. Currently, we are sitting at 130% of our starting bankroll for July! This steady progress highlights the strength of our disciplined approach and strategic betting.

As we eagerly await the Copa America and Euro 2024 Finals on Sunday, today we turn our focus to the MLB. With 15 games on the slate, we have plenty of opportunities to continue our winning ways. Our comprehensive analysis and meticulous research will guide us in identifying the best value plays.

Let’s make the most of today’s MLB options and keep building on our success. Here’s to another profitable day with BrownBagBets!

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Detroit Tigers

Pick: Tigers -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 6%

The Los Angeles Dodgers head into Detroit to face a revived Tigers team after being swept by the Phillies. This is not an ideal situation for the Dodgers, especially with their depleted pitching staff.

Dodgers’ Struggles and Paxton’s Road Woes

The Dodgers’ pitching staff is severely impacted by injuries, leaving them with James Paxton as the only veteran in the rotation. Unfortunately, Paxton’s performance on the road has been far from stellar. He carries a 5.36 ERA away from home, which does not bode well for a team looking to rebound from a series sweep.

Tigers’ Resurgence and Skubal’s Dominance

On the other side, the Tigers are experiencing a resurgence. Led by AL Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal, Detroit has shown considerable improvement. Skubal has been exceptional in his recent outings, posting a 1.80 ERA over his last three starts. His strong performance provides the Tigers with a significant advantage, especially at home.

Matchup Analysis

With the Dodgers reeling from their recent performance and struggling with pitching injuries, they face an uphill battle. Paxton’s road struggles add another layer of difficulty, and going up against a dominant Skubal puts them at a further disadvantage. The Tigers, playing with renewed confidence and having the upper hand in pitching, are well-positioned to take control of this game.

Betting Recommendation

Given the current form and situational advantages, betting on the Tigers to cover the -1.5 run line at +135 presents excellent value. With Skubal’s recent dominance and the Dodgers’ woes, Detroit should have the upper hand in this matchup, likely leading to a multi-run victory.

Conclusion

The Tigers are poised to capitalize on the Dodgers’ current struggles, particularly with their pitching rotation issues. Backing the Tigers to win by at least two runs offers a strong opportunity for bettors given the favorable odds and current team dynamics.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies -1.5 / Wager: 5%

Backing Ranger Suárez, especially at home, has consistently paid off this season. The Philadelphia Phillies have been stellar with Suárez on the mound, boasting a 14-4 record when he starts, and an impressive 8-1 at home, with six of those victories coming by two or more runs. His 2.49 ERA at home further solidifies the Phillies’ advantage in this matchup.

Phillies’ Home Dominance and Suarez’s Excellence

Ranger Suárez has been a reliable force for the Phillies, particularly at Citizens Bank Park. The Phillies’ ability to support him offensively, especially against left-handed pitching, makes them a formidable opponent. Philadelphia is 22-15 against left-handed pitchers and ranks sixth in MLB in OPS against lefties at home. Moreover, they are second in the league in hard-hit rate at home versus left-handed pitching, indicating their strong offensive potential in this matchup.

Athletics’ Struggles and Bullpen Issues

The Oakland Athletics, on the other hand, are struggling significantly. Their bullpen, once considered a strength, has faltered, ranking 23rd in slugging percentage allowed since June 1. The A’s pitching staff, particularly Hogan Harris, faces a daunting task against a potent Phillies lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark. Harris, who has enjoyed some success, may find Citizens Bank Park to be a far more challenging environment than the spacious confines of the Oakland Coliseum.

Phillies’ Offensive Firepower

The Phillies’ offense has been heating up, especially at home. Following a series against the Dodgers, they should be keen to maintain their momentum. Philadelphia’s proficiency against left-handed pitchers, combined with their power and hard-hit capabilities, suggests they will put significant pressure on Oakland’s pitching staff.

Betting Recommendation

Given the current form and situational advantages, betting on the Phillies to cover the -1.5 run line offers strong value. Suárez’s consistent home performances, coupled with Philadelphia’s offensive prowess against left-handed pitching, should see them secure a comfortable victory.

Conclusion

The Phillies are well-positioned to capitalize on the Athletics’ recent struggles, especially with Suárez on the mound. With Philadelphia’s strong home form and Oakland’s faltering bullpen, backing the Phillies to win by at least two runs presents an excellent betting opportunity.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at New York Mets

Pick: Mets -1.5 / Wager: 5%

The New York Mets are poised to capitalize on their momentum as they face a struggling Colorado Rockies team. Here’s why backing the Mets to cover the -1.5 run line is a smart play:

Mets’ Offensive Momentum

The Mets’ offense has been on fire recently, feasting on the Washington Nationals’ pitching staff. They have won five of their last six games, with four of those victories by two or more runs. This offensive surge bodes well as they now face a Colorado Rockies team with one of the weakest pitching staffs in the league.

Rockies’ Road Struggles

The Rockies have been abysmal on the road this season, ranking as the fourth worst team against the spread (ATS) away from home. Their road OPS of .638 is second worst in the league, indicating their significant struggles to generate offense outside of Coors Field. This road slump has been evident lately, as they have lost four of their last five games, all by six runs or more.

Pitching Advantage: Sean Manaea

Sean Manaea has been outstanding for the Mets in his recent outings. Over his last five starts, Manaea has posted a stellar 1.57 ERA and has allowed just a .485 OPS against. During this span, he has given up only one home run, showcasing his ability to limit damage and keep opponents off the scoreboard. The Mets have won four of these five starts, reflecting Manaea’s influence on the team’s success.

Rockies’ Pitching Woes

On the mound for the Rockies is Tanner Gordon, who faces a tough task against the Mets’ potent lineup. Colorado’s pitching staff has been one of the weakest in the league, and their recent performance has done little to inspire confidence. With the Rockies’ recent form, it is hard to see them containing a Mets lineup that has been firing on all cylinders.

Conclusion

Given the current form of both teams, the Mets have a clear edge in this matchup. Their offensive momentum, combined with Sean Manaea’s stellar pitching, puts them in a strong position to win by a comfortable margin. The Rockies’ struggles on the road and their recent form make the Mets a solid pick to cover the -1.5 run line.

Back the Mets to continue their winning ways and cover the -1.5 run line against the Rockies.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox

Pick: Pirates ML @ +135 / Wager: 6%

The Pittsburgh Pirates look like a strong value play tonight against the struggling Chicago White Sox. Here’s why taking the Pirates on the moneyline is a wise bet:

Garrett Crochet’s Situation

Garrett Crochet has been a bright spot for the White Sox this season, posting a respectable 3.08 ERA and an even more impressive 2.38 ERA at home. However, despite his solid individual performance, the White Sox have failed to capitalize on his outings, losing his last four starts. The primary issue has been their anemic offense, which has struggled to provide run support. Chicago’s overall record of 27-68 underscores their broader struggles this season.

White Sox Offensive Woes

The White Sox’s inability to score runs is a significant factor in their poor performance. This team has consistently failed to generate enough offense to support their pitchers, leading to numerous losses. Even with Crochet on the mound, the White Sox’s lineup has been unable to produce, which bodes well for the Pirates’ chances.

Pirates’ Opportunity for Momentum

The Pirates have a great opportunity to build some momentum heading into the All-Star break. They’re facing a White Sox team that’s been in freefall, and a win here could be a nice boost. Former Mariner Marco Gonzales is set to take the mound for Pittsburgh. Gonzales pitched well in April with a 2.65 ERA over three starts before going down with a forearm strain. If he can return to that form, he should give the Pirates a strong chance to win.

Capable Pirates Bullpen

Pittsburgh’s bullpen has shown it can be effective and could play a pivotal role in securing the win tonight. If Gonzales can deliver a solid start, the bullpen should be able to hold the line against a weak White Sox offense.

MLB: Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Brewers -1.5 / Wager: 5%

The Milwaukee Brewers look poised to extend their recent dominance at home when they take on a Washington Nationals team that has been struggling lately. Here’s why the Brewers covering the -1.5 run line is a strong bet:

Nationals’ Decline

Washington has been punching above its weight for much of the season, but their recent form suggests the wheels are starting to come off. They’ve lost five consecutive games, all by multiple runs, and have been outscored 34-10 during this span. This downward trend is compounded by a bullpen that no longer has the strength it showcased earlier in the season.

Jackson Rutledge’s Struggles

Jackson Rutledge, once a top prospect, is making his second appearance of the season. His initial outing in 2023 was rough, and given his past struggles, there is little reason to expect a significant turnaround in this game. The Brewers’ lineup should be able to exploit Rutledge’s vulnerabilities and put runs on the board early and often.

Brewers’ Home Advantage

Milwaukee has been formidable at home, boasting the second-best ATS win percentage in the league. The Brewers’ home-field advantage is a significant factor, and they’ve consistently performed well in front of their fans.

Freddy Peralta’s Strong Form

Freddy Peralta has been excellent in his last four starts, rebounding from a nightmare outing against the Reds. Over these four games, Peralta has a 3-1 record with a 2.45 ERA, a .493 OPS against, and has racked up 26 strikeouts while allowing just 13 hits in 22 innings. Peralta’s season tally of 124 strikeouts highlights his ability to miss bats, and facing a Nationals lineup with an above-average strikeout rate on the road bodes well for him.

Conclusion

The Brewers are in a prime position to capitalize on the Nationals’ recent struggles. With Washington’s bullpen looking thin ahead of the All-Star break and Jackson Rutledge’s questionable form, Milwaukee’s bats should have a field day. Freddy Peralta’s recent dominance further tilts the scales in favor of the Brewers, who have been excellent at home.

Given these factors, backing the Brewers to cover the -1.5 run line is a confident play. Expect Milwaukee to extend Washington’s losing streak and do so in convincing fashion.