Bouncing Back with MLB: Today’s Winning Picks

Yesterday wasn’t our best day, but it’s not the end of the world. Every bettor knows that not every day will be a winning day, and the key to long-term success is maintaining discipline and focus. Today, we bounce back with renewed energy and a clear focus on MLB.

Today’s Slate

We have a full day of MLB games ahead, providing us with plenty of opportunities to apply our strategic insights and meticulous analysis. Our goal is to identify the best value plays and make smart, data-driven bets to regain our momentum.

Let’s leverage our disciplined approach and get back on the winning track. Here’s to a successful day with BrownBagBets! Stay tuned for today’s picks and let’s make the most of the opportunities ahead.

MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Pirates ML / Wager: 6%

Backing Paul Skenes and the Pittsburgh Pirates looks like a solid play in this matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers. Skenes has been exceptional since his promotion from AAA, and his road performances have been particularly impressive. Here’s why the Pirates are a strong pick to win this game:

Paul Skenes’ Dominance on the Road

Paul Skenes has been a revelation for the Pirates, and his performance on the road has been nothing short of spectacular. The Pirates are 7-3 when he starts, including a 3-1 record in away games. Skenes has a road ERA of 1.11, which is significantly better than his home ERA. Opponents are batting just .169 against him on the road, and his WHIP stands at an impressive 0.74. His ability to limit hits and walks while pitching away from his home ballpark makes him a formidable opponent for any lineup.

Milwaukee’s Offensive Challenges

The Brewers have had their share of struggles offensively, which could play into Skenes’ strengths. Milwaukee’s lineup has been inconsistent, and facing a pitcher with Skenes’ caliber could further expose their weaknesses. His dominant fastball and effective off-speed pitches should neutralize the Brewers’ hitters, especially in a daytime setting where his stuff tends to play up even more.

Aaron Civale’s Inconsistencies

Aaron Civale, who has struggled throughout the season, presents an opportunity for the Pirates’ offense to capitalize. Although Civale has had some decent outings since moving to the National League, his overall performance has been below par. He has struggled with consistency, and while he did manage to contain the Pirates in an earlier start, his overall form leaves much to be desired. The Pirates’ hitters should be able to take advantage of Civale’s vulnerabilities, especially with the added confidence of having Skenes on the mound.

Pirates’ Recent Form and Motivation

The Pirates are motivated to make a push and build on their recent form. Skenes’ presence on the mound gives them a significant boost, and they have shown resilience in games he starts. The team has rallied behind their ace, and his ability to keep games close on the road has been a key factor in their success.

Game Analysis

With Paul Skenes on the mound, the Pirates have a significant advantage in this matchup. His road dominance, combined with Milwaukee’s offensive struggles and Aaron Civale’s inconsistencies, make Pittsburgh a strong pick to secure the win. The Pirates’ hitters will look to provide enough run support for Skenes, knowing that he can limit the Brewers’ scoring opportunities.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Reds -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 6%

The Cincinnati Reds are poised to bounce back after a close loss to the Colorado Rockies last night. Despite the setback, the Reds have demonstrated offensive firepower throughout this series, scoring 23 runs in the first three games. Here’s why the Reds are a strong pick to cover the spread in this matinee matchup:

Hunter Greene’s Recent Dominance

Hunter Greene was exceptional in his last start, pitching seven shutout innings while allowing just three hits against the Detroit Tigers. His performance showed signs of the elite potential that made him a top prospect. Greene’s ability to dominate on the mound will be crucial against a Rockies lineup that has struggled on the road this season. His high-velocity fastball and improved command give the Reds a significant edge in the pitching department.

Rockies’ Road Struggles and Austin Gomber’s Inconsistencies

The Colorado Rockies have consistently struggled on the road, and Austin Gomber’s road ERA of 5.44 this season doesn’t inspire confidence. Gomber has been unable to find consistency away from Coors Field, often giving up big innings and allowing opponents to build substantial leads. Cincinnati’s potent offense, which has already demonstrated its ability to score runs in bunches this series, should capitalize on Gomber’s vulnerabilities.

Cincinnati’s Offensive Firepower

The Reds’ offense has been firing on all cylinders, scoring 23 runs in the first three games of this series. Their lineup has shown depth and the ability to rally, even in games where they fall behind early. This resilience and offensive capability are crucial, especially when facing a pitcher like Gomber who is prone to giving up runs. Look for the Reds’ hitters to continue their hot streak and provide ample run support for Greene.

Motivation and Momentum

The Reds are motivated to close out this midweek series on a high note. They’ve already demonstrated their ability to bounce back from setbacks and will be eager to make a statement after last night’s narrow loss. With the series on the line and the opportunity to take 3 of 4 games, expect Cincinnati to come out strong and assert their dominance early.

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at San Francisco Giants

Pick: Giants ML / Wager: 6%

The San Francisco Giants are well-positioned to secure a win against the Toronto Blue Jays as they face off in game six of Toronto’s grueling nine-game road trip. Here’s why the Giants are a strong pick for this matchup:

Model Confidence in the Giants

The models project the Giants to win 56.5% of simulations, implying the line should be closer to -130. Getting them at -110 offers significant value, especially given the current form and circumstances of both teams.

Pitching Matchup: Jordan Hicks vs. Kevin Gausman

Jordan Hicks has had his ups and downs this season but remains a formidable presence on the mound. While he hasn’t been as dominant lately, his familiarity with the Blue Jays’ lineup – given his previous stint with Toronto – could play to his advantage. Hicks will be looking to capitalize on his home-field edge and deliver a strong performance to help the Giants secure the win.

Kevin Gausman, on the other hand, has seen his performance dip since June. His 5.27 ERA and the alarming nine home runs allowed in 42 2/3 innings over that period are causes for concern. Gausman’s fastball has been particularly problematic, with a .415 xwOBA and a 93.1 MPH average exit velocity, both significantly below MLB average. This decline in form could spell trouble against a Giants lineup that has been effective at home.

Home Advantage for the Giants

San Francisco has been impressive at Oracle Park, winning seven of their last nine games there and boasting a 26-19 home record for the season. Their familiarity with the home environment and the support of the home crowd provide an added advantage.

Blue Jays’ Road Woes and Fatigue

The Blue Jays are struggling on the road, particularly during this extended trip. As they approach the end of this nine-game stretch, fatigue is likely setting in. Toronto’s 6-14 record in their last 20 games highlights their current struggles and the negative impact of prolonged road trips on their performance.

Trade Deadline Distractions

The looming trade deadline adds another layer of uncertainty for the Blue Jays. With potential roster changes on the horizon, the team’s focus and cohesion might be compromised, further tilting the scales in favor of the Giants.

Game Analysis

Given the current form of both pitchers, the home advantage for the Giants, and the fatigue and distractions plaguing the Blue Jays, San Francisco has a clear edge in this matchup. Hicks’ familiarity with the Blue Jays’ lineup and Gausman’s recent struggles make the Giants the more reliable pick.

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Orioles ML / Wager: 4%

The Baltimore Orioles are poised to bounce back and avoid a sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs. Here’s why backing the Orioles on the moneyline is a smart play:

Series Resilience

The Orioles have demonstrated resilience in series finales, particularly following a loss. They are 7-3 in game threes of a series after suffering a defeat, indicating their ability to rally and perform under pressure in crucial games.

Albert Suarez’s Home Dominance

Albert Suarez has been notably effective when pitching at home. His home stats include a stellar 1.50 ERA and a .212 average against, compared to a 3.31 ERA and a .248 average against on the road. This performance disparity highlights Suarez’s comfort and effectiveness at Camden Yards, giving Baltimore a strong starting advantage.

Cubs’ Struggles with Justin Steele

The Cubs are sending Justin Steele to the mound, coming off an impressive complete game where he allowed just two hits and one earned run. Despite his recent form, the Cubs have struggled to convert Steele’s starts into wins, posting a 4-9 record when he pitches. This indicates that even with a solid starting effort from Steele, the Cubs’ overall support and bullpen have been unreliable.

Baltimore’s Offense vs. Left-Handed Pitchers

Baltimore’s lineup has been potent against left-handed pitchers, ranking third in OPS (.786) in such matchups. This offensive prowess against lefties sets them up well to challenge Steele and capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Offensive Improvement Expected

The Orioles went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position on Wednesday, an uncharacteristic performance that is likely to correct itself. Given their strong overall performance against left-handed pitchers, a better offensive output can be expected as they look to avoid the sweep.