Wednesday’s Top Bets: England - Netherlands Takes Center Stage

Yesterday was an even day, and unfortunately, our winning streak in Euro plays came to a crashing end with a wild 20 minutes in the Spain vs. France match. But we are back at it today, ready to dive into another exciting lineup of games with renewed focus and determination.

Euro 2024 Semifinal: Netherlands vs. England

Today, the Netherlands and England meet for a heavyweight clash in the Euro 2024 semifinals. The Netherlands outlasted Turkey to get here, but they were not impressive in doing so. The Oranje’s three wins in this tournament came against below-average teams, so with England being a step up in class, they are likely to struggle. England, on the other hand, has made it to the semifinals with Gareth Southgate’s uber-conservative tactics. Despite not looking pretty against Slovakia and Switzerland, these tactics have gotten England this far, and they just might take them all the way to the final for back-to-back Euros.

Copa America Semifinal: Colombia vs. Uruguay

Colombia hopes to set a club record and advance to the final for the first time in more than two decades when they face Uruguay at Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, NC, in the 2024 Copa America semifinals. Colombia, whose most recent final appearance in the tournament came when they won their lone title in 2001, routed Panama 5-0 in the quarterfinals to extend their unbeaten streak across all competitions to 27 contests (21-6-0), matching the team mark set from 1992-94. Uruguay, even with Argentina at 15 Copa America championships, kept alive their chance to take the all-time lead by defeating Brazil on penalties in the quarters. These sides met in the 2021 quarterfinals, with the Colombians advancing on penalties.

MLB Slate

And of course, we have a full day of MLB games to choose from. Our comprehensive analysis will help identify the top picks to maximize our returns and keep our momentum going.

Let’s leverage our strategic insights and disciplined approach to make the most of today’s opportunities. Here’s to another successful day with BrownBagBets!

Euro ‘24 Semifinal: England vs Netherlands

Pick: Both Teams to Score @ +105 / Wager: 4%

The Netherlands and England will clash in Dortmund for an intriguing Euro 2024 semifinal showdown on Wednesday. The Dutch come into this match with a wave of confidence after a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Turkiye in the quarterfinals, showcasing their offensive prowess with nine goals in five games, highlighted by the fine form of striker Cody Gakpo. Meanwhile, England, despite their underwhelming performances, are favorites according to sportsbooks. They have managed to grind out results, largely due to their individual brilliance in the forward line.

Individual Brilliance Carries England to the Semifinals

England’s journey to the semifinals has been a mixed bag. Gareth Southgate’s men delivered a series of lackluster performances during the group stage, scraping out a 1-0 win against Serbia before drawing 1-1 with Denmark, which was met with boos from the fans. A 0-0 draw with Slovenia saw them win their group, but it was far from convincing. Their Round-of-16 clash with Slovakia almost ended in disaster, trailing 1-0 until Jude Bellingham’s spectacular overhead kick in the dying moments forced extra time. Harry Kane then secured a 2-1 victory.

In the quarterfinals against Switzerland, Southgate opted for a tactical switch to a 3-4-2-1 formation. Yet, England struggled once again, relying on a late equalizer from Bukayo Saka to take the game to penalties, where they emerged victorious. Despite the win, it is clear that England’s progress has heavily relied on moments of individual brilliance rather than cohesive team play.

Dutch Defense Has Been Surprisingly Porous

The Netherlands have had their ups and downs in this tournament. They finished third in Group D after a 3-2 loss to Austria but advanced as one of the best third-placed teams. They then comfortably beat Romania 3-0 in the Round of 16 before coming from behind to defeat Turkiye 2-1 in the quarterfinals. Wout Weghorst’s introduction at halftime against Turkiye changed the game, giving the Dutch a more potent attacking setup and allowing Gakpo and Memphis Depay to thrive on the flanks.

While the Netherlands have been effective offensively, their defense has been surprisingly leaky, conceding a goal per game despite having top defenders like Virgil Van Dijk, Stefan de Vrij, and Nathan Aké. This vulnerability could be problematic against England’s attack featuring Kane, Saka, Bellingham, Phil Foden, and Cole Palmer.

Expectations for the Match

Given the offensive capabilities and defensive vulnerabilities of both teams, betting on both teams to score seems prudent. The Netherlands’ ability to find the net, combined with their defensive frailties, suggests they will both score and concede.

Copa America Semifinal: Uruguay vs Colombia

Pick: Both Teams to Score / Wager: 3%

Pick: Uruguay Draw No Bet / Wager: 3%

The semifinal clash between Uruguay and Colombia promises to be a thrilling encounter, featuring two teams with high expectations and the capability to deliver a high-scoring affair.

Uruguay’s Defensive Prowess and Attacking Threat

Uruguay enters this match on a high, having eliminated Brazil, one of the tournament favorites, in a gritty quarterfinal contest. Despite being reduced to ten men for the final 20 minutes, Uruguay displayed elite defensive skills, preventing Brazil from scoring and securing their place in the semifinals. Led by striker Darwin Núñez, Uruguay boasts a formidable attacking line, complemented by a solid defense. Their resilience and tactical discipline make them a strong contender for the final.

Uruguay’s track record in Copa America is impressive, and they will be aiming to add another title to their collection. The team has shown they can defend against top-tier opponents and has the offensive firepower to pose significant threats. Núñez’s form, combined with the team’s overall depth and experience, will be crucial in breaking down Colombia’s defense.

Colombia’s Offensive Surge

Colombia has emerged as one of the most formidable teams in the tournament, showcasing a blend of defensive solidity and offensive prowess. Traditionally known for their defensive strength, Colombia has adopted a more aggressive approach in this competition, evidenced by their dominant performances in the group stage and the quarterfinals.

In the group stage, Colombia defeated Paraguay 2-1, dismantled Costa Rica 3-0, and held Brazil to a 1-1 draw, defying expectations. Their quarterfinal match against Panama was a statement of intent, as they cruised to a 5-0 victory. They are unlikely to sit back and will look to exploit any weaknesses in Uruguay’s defense.

Match Expectations

This semifinal is set to be a tightly contested battle, with both teams bringing different strengths to the pitch. Uruguay’s defensive resilience and attacking capabilities, led by Núñez, will be matched against Colombia’s offensive surge and solid backline. The tactical approaches of both teams suggest a balanced game, likely resulting in goals from both sides.

Given the attacking talents and recent performances, betting on both teams to score appears to be a prudent choice. Additionally, Uruguay’s experience and depth could give them a slight edge, making the “Draw No Bet” option on Uruguay an appealing wager.

In summary, expect an exciting, hard-fought encounter with both teams finding the back of the net, but Uruguay potentially edging out Colombia to secure their place in the final.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (Game 1)

Pick: Cardinals ML / Wager: 4%

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to maintain their momentum as they begin a six-game homestand before the All-Star break, following a successful five-and-two road trip. The Cardinals have been on a roll, winning 12 of their last 17 games. After a tough stretch in May where they went 15-24, the Cardinals have rebounded impressively with a 33-18 record since, putting them six games above .500.

Cardinals’ Recent Surge

The Cardinals have found their groove, demonstrating resilience and consistency in their recent performances. They are coming off a strong road trip and seem well-positioned to capitalize on their home-field advantage against the struggling Kansas City Royals. The Cardinals’ lineup, featuring key players in good form, appears ready to take on the Royals in this first game of the series.

Royals’ Struggles

In stark contrast, the Kansas City Royals are in a free fall, having just lost three of four games, including two of three to the Rockies. Royals’ right-hander Alec Marsh has struggled significantly on the road, posting a 2-4 record with a 5.21 ERA. Marsh has lost three of his last four starts, giving up 15 runs in those losses. This poor form makes the Royals vulnerable as they face a confident Cardinals team.

Matchup Analysis

The Cardinals have a clear advantage in this matchup, with their regular starters in the lineup for Game 1. In contrast, the Royals have some of their regulars sitting out, further tilting the scales in favor of St. Louis. The Cardinals’ ability to capitalize on their offensive opportunities, coupled with Marsh’s road struggles, sets the stage for a likely Cardinals victory.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals (Game 1)

Pick: Cardinals ML / Wager: 4%

The St. Louis Cardinals are looking to maintain their momentum as they begin a six-game homestand before the All-Star break, following a successful five-and-two road trip. The Cardinals have been on a roll, winning 12 of their last 17 games. After a tough stretch in May where they went 15-24, the Cardinals have rebounded impressively with a 33-18 record since, putting them six games above .500.

Cardinals’ Recent Surge

The Cardinals have found their groove, demonstrating resilience and consistency in their recent performances. They are coming off a strong road trip and seem well-positioned to capitalize on their home-field advantage against the struggling Kansas City Royals. The Cardinals’ lineup, featuring key players in good form, appears ready to take on the Royals in this first game of the series.

Royals’ Struggles

In stark contrast, the Kansas City Royals are in a free fall, having just lost three of four games, including two of three to the Rockies. Royals’ right-hander Alec Marsh has struggled significantly on the road, posting a 2-4 record with a 5.21 ERA. Marsh has lost three of his last four starts, giving up 15 runs in those losses. This poor form makes the Royals vulnerable as they face a confident Cardinals team.

Matchup Analysis

The Cardinals have a clear advantage in this matchup, with their regular starters in the lineup for Game 1. In contrast, the Royals have some of their regulars sitting out, further tilting the scales in favor of St. Louis. The Cardinals’ ability to capitalize on their offensive opportunities, coupled with Marsh’s road struggles, sets the stage for a likely Cardinals victory.

MLB: Minnesota Twins at Chicago White Sox (Game 1)

Pick: Twins ML / Wager: 4%

The Minnesota Twins look to continue their dominance over the Chicago White Sox as they face off in this matchup. The Twins have been unstoppable against the White Sox, winning nine straight games, including seven this season. Currently sitting 13 games above .500, the Twins have found a significant portion of their success at the expense of the White Sox.

Twins’ Recent Success

The Twins have been in excellent form recently, with notable contributions from Jose Miranda and Byron Buxton, who have been among the hottest hitters in baseball over the past two weeks. Their consistent performances at the plate have been instrumental in the Twins’ winning streak against the White Sox.

Pitching Advantage

Minnesota’s Bailey Ober has been in top form, winning four of his last five starts. He has been particularly effective in his recent outings, allowing only two runs over his last two starts. This level of performance has been crucial in maintaining the Twins’ winning momentum.

White Sox Struggles

On the other hand, the Chicago White Sox have struggled, with Erick Fedde losing two of his last three starts. The White Sox have found it challenging to match up against the Twins, contributing to their continued struggles this season.

Matchup Analysis

Given the Twins’ recent dominance over the White Sox, combined with the current form of their key players and starting pitcher Bailey Ober, Minnesota appears well-positioned to secure another victory. The Twins’ ability to capitalize on their offensive opportunities and the White Sox’s recent pitching struggles make the Twins a strong pick to win this game.

MLB: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Yankees ML @ +110 / Wager: 4%

The New York Yankees are looking to bounce back after a narrow defeat in the first game of the series against the Tampa Bay Rays. Despite matching Tampa Bay in hits, the Yankees left eight runners on base, highlighting their struggle to capitalize on scoring opportunities.

Pitching Advantage with Stroman

Marcus Stroman takes the mound for the Yankees, bringing his impressive ground-ball rate of 50.3% (83rd percentile). Stroman has managed to keep the Rays’ lineup in check, limiting them to a .633 OPS over 40 combined at-bats. His performance on the road has been notably better this season, boasting a 5-1 record with a 2.54 ERA, compared to a 2-3 record and 4.59 ERA at home. This indicates his comfort and effectiveness in away games, which will be crucial for the Yankees.

Offensive Threats

Juan Soto stands out as a key player for the Yankees, particularly against Tampa Bay’s starter, Zach Eflin. Soto has an impressive batting average of .464, including two home runs and a 1.315 OPS in 28 at-bats against Eflin. This favorable matchup could provide the offensive spark the Yankees need to overcome their recent hitting woes.

Team Performance Metrics

The Yankees have demonstrated stronger performance metrics on the road this season, evidenced by their +67 run differential in away games. In contrast, the Rays have struggled more at home, with a -36 run differential. This disparity underscores the Yankees’ ability to perform well in hostile environments, providing them with an edge in this matchup.

Game Analysis

Given Stroman’s strong ground-ball rate and his effective road performance, combined with the potential for Soto to continue his success against Eflin, the Yankees have a solid foundation to secure a victory. Additionally, the Yankees’ superior road run differential compared to the Rays’ home struggles further supports the case for New York.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Red Sox -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 4%

The Boston Red Sox have been on a tear, transforming from a sub-.500 team at the start of June to holding a current AL wild card position. They have won 20 of their last 29 games, showing a consistent and formidable form. The momentum continued from their series win at Yankee Stadium into their first game against the Athletics, where they scored 12 runs. This offensive prowess indicates a strong likelihood of maintaining their winning streak.

Nick Pivetta’s Recent Dominance

Nick Pivetta takes the mound for the Red Sox, coming off an exceptional performance where he pitched seven shutout innings and allowed just one hit against the Marlins last Thursday. Pivetta’s recent form is a significant advantage for the Red Sox, providing them with a reliable and dominant presence on the mound. His ability to control the game and limit opponents’ scoring opportunities boosts the Red Sox’s chances of securing a decisive win.

Oakland’s Struggles with JP Sears

In contrast, the Athletics are sending JP Sears to the mound. Sears has struggled significantly, particularly in June where he posted a 7.94 ERA. His inability to contain opposing offenses has been a glaring issue, and facing a hot Red Sox lineup could exacerbate these problems. The Red Sox’s recent offensive explosion, including their 12-run performance against Oakland, suggests that they are well-positioned to exploit Sears’ vulnerabilities.

Offensive Surge

The Red Sox’s bats have been alive, and their offensive depth has been a key factor in their recent success. Scoring 12 runs against the Athletics showcases their ability to put up big numbers, a trend that could continue against an inconsistent Oakland pitching staff. This offensive firepower gives them a solid edge in covering the run line.

Team Performance Metrics

The Red Sox’s recent form is a testament to their overall team strength. Their resurgence from a sub-.500 team to a playoff contender highlights their capability to perform under pressure. Meanwhile, the Athletics have struggled mightily, sitting at the bottom of the standings with consistent issues in both pitching and hitting.

Game Analysis

Given the Red Sox’s current form, Pivetta’s dominance, and the Athletics’ ongoing struggles, betting on Boston to cover the -1.5 run line at +105 offers solid value. The Red Sox have the momentum, pitching strength, and offensive firepower to secure a comfortable win against an Oakland team that is significantly outmatched.

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Reds -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 4%

The Cincinnati Reds are in a favorable position as they take on the Colorado Rockies at home, leveraging the benefits of home-field advantage, mid-summer conditions, and a clear edge on the mound. The Reds have been potent offensively at home, while the Rockies struggle significantly on the road.

Kyle Freeland’s Road Struggles

Kyle Freeland has had a particularly tough time away from Coors Field, posting an alarming 11.94 ERA and a 2.4 WHIP in road games. His struggles have been highlighted by allowing a .407 batting average to opponents, which is a concerning statistic as he prepares to face a hot Reds lineup in a hitter-friendly ballpark like Great American Ball Park. The combination of high temperatures and Freeland’s road issues makes it likely that Cincinnati will capitalize offensively.

Frankie Montas’ Home Advantage

In contrast, Reds’ pitcher Frankie Montas has excelled at limiting home runs in his home starts, a crucial skill when pitching in a ballpark known for its propensity to allow long balls. Montas’ ability to keep the ball in the park will be essential against a Rockies lineup that can occasionally flash power, though inconsistently, especially on the road.

Offensive Prowess of the Reds

The Reds have been scoring prolifically at home, putting up 18 runs over the first two games of this series. This offensive surge underscores their capability to not only win but to cover the spread effectively. The Reds’ bats have been lively, and with Freeland’s struggles on the mound, Cincinnati is in an excellent position to extend their scoring spree.

Rockies’ Road Woes

The Rockies are among the worst road teams in the majors, struggling significantly away from the altitude of Coors Field. Their performance on the road has been dismal, making them a prime target for a home team like the Reds, who are performing well in their home environment.

Game Analysis

Given the considerable disparity in the pitching matchup and the current form of both offenses, the Reds are well-placed to cover the -1.5 run line. Freeland’s severe difficulties on the road, combined with the Reds’ recent offensive success, create a scenario where Cincinnati can secure a decisive win.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at St. Louis Cardinals

Pick: Cardinals ML / Wager: 5%

Today’s MLB card features a packed schedule with seventeen games, and the second game of a doubleheader between the Kansas City Royals and St. Louis Cardinals presents a compelling value opportunity. The Cardinals are making a strong push in the NL playoff race, currently just four games behind the Milwaukee Brewers for the NL Central division lead. Here’s why the Cardinals are the pick for this game:

St. Louis Cardinals’ Playoff Push

The Cardinals have been one of the hottest teams in the league recently, surging forward to put themselves in contention for the NL Central title. Their recent form has been impressive, and they will look to continue this momentum against a struggling Royals team. The home-field advantage at Busch Stadium also plays into their favor, as the Cardinals have been strong at home throughout the season.

Michael Wacha’s Return to St. Louis

Royals starter Michael Wacha is set to make his return to St. Louis, where he spent the first seven years of his MLB career. While this homecoming may add an emotional layer to the game, it also brings significant pressure. Wacha’s familiarity with the ballpark and the fans could work against him, as he faces a Cardinals lineup that has been effective against right-handed pitchers.

Cardinals’ Strong Lineup

The Cardinals boast a deep and potent lineup, with key hitters such as Nolan Arenado, Paul Goldschmidt, and Tommy Edman leading the charge. Their ability to generate runs and capitalize on scoring opportunities will be crucial against Wacha. St. Louis’ offense has been clicking, and they should be able to put up runs against a Royals team that has struggled on the mound.

Royals’ Struggles on the Road

Kansas City has had a tough season overall, particularly on the road. Their pitching staff has been inconsistent, and the offense has not been able to provide enough support. This combination of factors makes them a vulnerable team, especially against a Cardinals squad that is firing on all cylinders.

Game Analysis

In the second game of the doubleheader, the Cardinals are well-positioned to take advantage of the Royals’ weaknesses. Wacha’s return to St. Louis adds an interesting storyline, but the Cardinals’ overall strength, home-field advantage, and playoff aspirations give them a significant edge.

MLB: Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels

Pick: Rangers ML / Wager: 5%

The Texas Rangers are on a roll, winning five straight games and making significant strides up the standings. They now sit at 44-48 and are playing with renewed vigor and purpose. This recent surge suggests that the team has finally shaken off the World Series hangover and is ready to compete at a high level again. Here’s why the Rangers are the pick to win this matchup against the Los Angeles Angels:

Rangers’ Winning Streak and Momentum

The Rangers have found their groove, winning five consecutive games. This winning streak is a testament to their improved form and newfound focus. They are climbing up the standings and appear determined to make a push for the playoffs. This momentum is crucial as they face the Angels, a team that has had its own struggles this season.

Michael Lorenzen’s Recent Performance

Michael Lorenzen, the Rangers’ starter for this game, comes off an impressive performance in his last outing. He didn’t allow any runs over five innings against the Tampa Bay Rays, leading Texas to a 3-0 victory. Lorenzen’s ability to keep the opposing lineup in check bodes well for the Rangers as they look to extend their winning streak.

Griffin Canning’s Inconsistency

Angels’ starter Griffin Canning has allowed four runs in his last two starts, indicating some inconsistency on the mound. While he has shown flashes of potential, Canning’s recent performances suggest he could struggle against a resurgent Rangers lineup. Texas’ offense has been clicking, and they should be able to capitalize on any mistakes Canning might make.

Angels’ Struggles and Lack of Momentum

The Angels have had a tough season, struggling to find consistency both on the mound and at the plate. This lack of momentum makes them vulnerable, especially against a Rangers team that is firing on all cylinders. The Angels’ recent form does not inspire confidence, and they face an uphill battle against a Texas team that is playing with renewed purpose and energy.

Game Analysis

With the Rangers’ recent winning streak, improved form, and a solid performance from Michael Lorenzen, they have a significant edge in this matchup. The Angels’ inconsistency and struggles add to Texas’ advantage. The Rangers’ offense has been effective, and their pitching has held up well, setting the stage for another victory.