Winning the Day with BrownBagBets: Euro 2024 and Copa America Semifinals + MLB Action

Yesterday was a very light day with just a small slate of MLB games to comb through. Despite that challenge, we found value in a couple of plays, and even though we went 1-1, we ended up winning the day, thanks to our proprietary bankroll intelligence. This is a testament to the strength of the BrownBagBets approach, where strategic bet sizing and disciplined wagering lead to sustained success.

Today’s Slate

Today, we have an action-packed lineup that promises excitement and opportunities:

• Euro 2024 Semifinal: A massive clash between France and Spain. This is set to be a thrilling encounter, and our detailed analysis will guide you to the best value plays.

• Copa America Semifinal: Argentina takes on the underdogs, Canada. With Lionel Messi expected to shine, this match offers some intriguing betting angles.

• MLB: Back to full force with 15 games on the docket. Our comprehensive analysis will help identify the top picks to maximize our returns.

Let’s leverage our strategic insights and disciplined approach to make the most of today’s opportunities. Here’s to another successful day with BrownBagBets!

Euro 2024 Semifinal: France vs Spain

Pick: France to advance @ +105 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Draw @ Half Time

France’s Defensive Dominance

France has been somewhat under the radar in this Euro 2024 tournament, quietly showcasing an exceptional defensive record. Despite underperforming offensively and failing to score a goal from non-penalty situations, their defensive prowess has been outstanding. France has not conceded a non-penalty goal, with opponents generating only 3.7 non-penalty expected goals (npxG) over five matches. This is the lowest among the remaining teams, highlighting their defensive strength.

The center-back pairing of William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano has been instrumental in this defensive solidity. Their elite box defending and ball-winning abilities make them the best center-back duo in the tournament. This defensive setup is ideal for a match against Spain, who are expected to control the majority of the possession. France’s strategy will likely involve exploiting transitions and counter-attacks, areas where they can capitalize on Spain’s high pressing and aggressive possession play.

Spain’s Challenges and Strategy

Spain has shown its capability to dominate possession and create chances, but they face significant challenges in this semifinal. With two crucial suspensions in their backline, their defensive setup will be tested against a resilient French side. Moreover, Spain’s style of play necessitates being aggressive both in possession and in their counter-pressing when they lose the ball. This approach may leave them vulnerable to France’s counter-attacks.

France’s ability to remain compact and disciplined defensively while waiting for the right moments to launch quick transitions can be decisive. Spain’s struggles to create high-quality chances against the best defensive team in the tournament will be a significant factor in this matchup.

Match Dynamics and Betting Insights

Given the strengths and weaknesses of both teams, the game is likely to be tightly contested, especially in the first half. A draw at halftime appears a plausible outcome as both teams will be cautious, avoiding early mistakes. As the game progresses, France’s defensive stability and counter-attacking prowess could give them the edge.

Statistically, France has a +1.34 expected goal difference (xGD) per 90 minutes since September 2021, compared to Spain’s +1.24. Additionally, France has a significantly higher team transfer value, reflecting their superior overall quality and depth.

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Orioles -1.5 @ +140 / Wager: 5%

Dean Kremer’s Strong Return

The Baltimore Orioles received a significant boost with Dean Kremer’s successful return to the mound last week. Kremer was exceptional in Seattle, pitching five shutout innings and allowing only two hits in a 4-1 victory over the Mariners. This performance underscores Kremer’s ability to deliver under pressure, and it sets a positive tone for the Orioles as they head back home.

Kremer’s form is particularly encouraging for the Orioles, who have been solid both on the road and at home. His performance in Seattle is a testament to his capability to control games and keep opposing offenses at bay. As the Orioles return to Camden Yards, they bring this momentum with them, which could be crucial against a struggling Cubs team.

Cubs’ Pitching Woes with Shota Imonaga

The Cubs, on the other hand, are dealing with a rough patch, especially with Shota Imonaga on the mound. Imonaga, who started the season with high expectations, has seen his ERA balloon from an impressive 0.84 to a concerning 3.16 over the past five weeks. This dramatic increase in ERA reflects his struggles, particularly over his last seven starts, where he has posted a 6.51 ERA.

Imonaga’s recent performances have been less than stellar, and this downward trend is troubling for the Cubs as they face a potent Orioles lineup. Baltimore’s offense has been effective at home, and with Imonaga’s current form, the Orioles are well-positioned to take advantage and put runs on the board early.

Expectations for the Matchup

Considering the current form of both teams, the Orioles have a clear advantage. Baltimore’s solid home record and Kremer’s strong pitching contrast sharply with the Cubs’ struggles and Imonaga’s recent decline. The Cubs have been on a skid, and facing an in-form Kremer does not bode well for their chances.

With the Orioles riding high from another successful road trip and now playing in the familiar confines of Camden Yards, they are expected to continue their winning ways. The Cubs’ pitching issues further tilt the scales in favor of Baltimore.

MLB: New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Pick: Rays ML @ +105 / Wager: 4%

Yankees’ Struggles with Carlos Rodon on the Mound

Carlos Rodon’s recent outings have highlighted significant issues for the Yankees. In his last four starts, the Yankees have consistently faltered, losing all four games. This trend points to deeper issues within the team, both in terms of pitching and offensive support. Rodon, who was expected to bolster the Yankees’ rotation, has not met expectations, and the team’s struggles during his starts have been pronounced.

Offensive Woes for the Yankees

The Yankees’ offensive production has been particularly troubling during Rodon’s starts. In three of the last four games, New York has scored two runs or less, indicating a substantial decline in their ability to generate runs. This offensive slump has been compounded by lopsided losses to division rivals like Toronto and Boston, further dampening their confidence and momentum.

Rays’ Consistency and Home Advantage

The Tampa Bay Rays have been one of the most consistent teams in MLB this season, particularly at home. The Rays’ ability to capitalize on opponents’ weaknesses and maintain steady performance levels gives them a significant edge. Facing a Yankees team struggling both on the mound and at the plate, the Rays are well-positioned to exploit these vulnerabilities.

MLB: Washington Nationals at New York Mets

Pick: Mets ML / Wager: 5%

Washington’s Recent Struggles

The Nationals’ pitching woes have become increasingly apparent since their 1-0 victory on the fourth of July. In the four games that followed, Washington’s pitching staff has consistently struggled, giving up six or more runs in each game. This troubling trend highlights the vulnerability of their bullpen, which has failed to contain opposing offenses effectively.

Jake Irvin’s Inconsistency

Although Jake Irvin had a standout performance against the Mets on Independence Day, his overall inconsistency remains a concern. Even if Irvin manages to put together another strong outing, the Nationals’ bullpen has proven to be a weak link, often squandering any advantage gained by the starters. This ongoing issue could once again leave Washington exposed, particularly against a motivated Mets lineup.

Mets’ Offensive Potential

The Mets have the offensive firepower to exploit Washington’s pitching deficiencies. Despite a season marked by ups and downs, New York’s lineup features several potent bats capable of capitalizing on mistakes from the Nationals’ pitchers. This game presents an opportunity for the Mets to regain momentum and take advantage of Washington’s recent pitching struggles.

MLB 2 Team ML Parlay: Boston Red Sox ML + Milwaukee Brewers ML @ +150 / Wager: 3%

Red Sox vs. Athletics

Boston’s Offensive Surge

The Boston Red Sox have been in excellent form recently, winning 16 of their last 22 games. This resurgence has positioned them to potentially get back into the AL East race. The Red Sox’s success can be attributed to their potent offense, which has consistently put up runs. Boston has won 22 straight games when scoring at least five runs, highlighting their ability to dominate when their bats are hot.

Oakland’s Road Struggles with Joey Estes

Oakland’s 22-year-old rookie Joey Estes had a remarkable performance with a complete-game shutout of the Angels. However, facing the Red Sox at Fenway Park is a different challenge altogether. Estes has struggled on the road this season, with a 1-3 record and a 7.00 ERA. The Red Sox lineup will look to capitalize on Estes’ road woes and continue their offensive surge.

Brewers vs. Pirates

Brewers’ Home Advantage with Colin Rea

The Milwaukee Brewers are well-rested after an off day and will have Colin Rea on the mound. Rea has been impressive at home, boasting a 5-1 record with a 2.83 ERA. His recent form has been even better, as he is 5-0 with a 2.56 ERA in his last eight outings overall. Rea delivered a quality start against the Pirates on May 13, although he was a tough-luck loser in that game. Given his current form, he is well-positioned to stymie the Pirates’ lineup again.

Fading Pittsburgh’s Rookie Quinn Priester

The Pirates had a matinee on Monday before traveling, which could impact their performance. Additionally, their good young shortstop Oneil Cruz, who hit two homers, was pulled with a tight hamstring, potentially sidelining him. The Pirates are expected to start rookie Quinn Priester, who has struggled with a 0-5 record and a 4.83 ERA. Priester’s inexperience and recent performance issues make him a prime candidate to be faded in this matchup.

Parlay Overview - Rationale

Combining the Red Sox and Brewers in a moneyline parlay at +150 provides solid value given the current form and matchups. The Red Sox’s potent offense and home-field advantage against a struggling rookie pitcher, along with the Brewers’ well-rested ace facing an inexperienced and struggling Pirates rookie, make this parlay a strong play.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros -1.5 / Wager: 4%

Fading Trevor Rogers

Trevor Rogers has been a consistent fade this season, with the Marlins losing 14 of his 17 starts. More concerning is that 13 of those losses have been by two or more runs, highlighting his struggles on the mound. Rogers’ 4.91 ERA reflects his inconsistency and vulnerability, especially against potent lineups.

Houston’s Home Dominance

The Astros have been on a tear recently, winning nine of their last 11 home games, with each victory coming by at least two runs. This recent surge has propelled them back to the top of the AL West, and they are well-positioned to continue this form against a struggling Marlins team. Houston’s lineup has thrived in their home ballpark, making them even more formidable.

Miami’s Road Woes

The Marlins have struggled on the road, sporting a 14-27 record away from home. They have failed to cover the run line in seven of their last nine road losses, emphasizing their difficulties when traveling. This matchup against a strong Astros team in a favorable ballpark further tilts the scales in Houston’s favor.

MLB: Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres

Pick: Mariners ML / Wager: 5%

Struggles of Padres Starter Adam Mazur

Adam Mazur’s recent performances have not inspired confidence in his ability to remain with the big club. In his latest outing, Mazur allowed four runs and seven hits over just 4 innings pitched last Wednesday at Texas, pushing his ERA to a concerning 7.52 since his call-up in early June. This trend suggests that Mazur is struggling to adjust to major league hitting, making him a liability on the mound for the Padres.

Mariners’ Resilience and Logan Gilbert’s Away Form

Despite a few rough weeks, the Mariners continue to lead the AL West, showcasing their resilience and overall team strength. Logan Gilbert, their starting pitcher for this game, has been notably effective on the road. His away ERA of 2.75 reflects his ability to handle opposing teams in their home ballparks, providing a steady and reliable presence on the mound.

Comparative Performance and Momentum

While the Mariners have faced some challenges recently, their ability to bounce back and maintain their lead in the AL West speaks volumes about their depth and quality. On the other hand, the Padres are dealing with significant inconsistency, particularly with their starting pitching. This game presents a prime opportunity for the Mariners to capitalize on Mazur’s struggles and secure a win.