Final Day of July: Embrace the Journey with BrownBagBets

Last night, we wrapped up a solid 6-5 performance, gaining 1% to our total bankroll. This puts us at 183% of our starting July bankroll as we head into the final day of sports betting for July.

At BrownBagBets, we believe in more than just placing wagers. We are committed to a strategic approach that enables you to take cash out of your accounts as passive income when each month ends. Our philosophy is built on the idea that sports betting can be a sustainable, profitable venture, akin to investing in the stock market and generating income through dividends. If you’ve been with us for the full year, you’ve already enjoyed cashing out from your betting investment fund in January, February, and March, and now July marks the fourth time out of seven months year-to-date. This is the essence of our approach—winning the month, winning the quarter, and ultimately winning the year.

Our methodology is straightforward but profound: we provide the answers to the test. Every pick comes with detailed rationale, and our betting amounts are adjusted for each individual pick. This meticulous strategy ensures that even if the wins and losses balance out, you still come out ahead. This is what sets BrownBagBets apart from typical handicappers who might leave you in the red.

Today, we’re diving into a robust slate of 14 MLB games. As we analyze the matchups, we’re reminded that the journey isn’t just about today’s wins but about the long-term growth and sustainability of our betting strategy.

As we close out July and prepare to reset our bankrolls, let’s remember this: greatness in betting comes not from avoiding losses, but from persevering despite them. Our resilience and relentless pursuit define our journey. July is a testament to this philosophy, reflecting our ability to adapt, learn, and ultimately, thrive.

Let’s win this final day of July and carry this momentum into the new month!

MLB: Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays

Dominant Pitching

Taj Bradley has been phenomenal for the Rays recently, quietly putting up some of the best numbers in the majors for July. With an 0.35 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP, Bradley is a major reason why Tampa Bay has been able to stay competitive in the AL wild card race. His dominant performances on the mound give the Rays a significant edge.

Struggling Opponent

The Marlins, who have been weakened in the short-term by their trade deadline moves, are sending Roddery Munoz to the mound. Munoz was torched in his last outing, allowing three home runs in a 7-6 loss to the Orioles. Given his recent struggles and the Marlins’ current form, they are vulnerable against a surging Rays team.

Team Form

The Rays have won 10 of their last 15 games and are looking to continue their push for a playoff spot. In contrast, the Marlins are dealing with the aftermath of their trade deadline sell-offs and are in a weaker position. This disparity in team form and motivation makes the Rays a solid pick for a comfortable win.

Value Play

Considering the dominant form of Taj Bradley and the recent struggles of Roddery Munoz, taking the Rays on the run line (-1.5) offers good value. Tampa Bay is well-positioned to capitalize on their advantages and secure a decisive victory.

Bet: Rays -1.5 / Wager: 5%

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles

Strong Offensive Habits

The Orioles have returned to good habits at the plate, focusing on line drives and using the entire field rather than trying to hit home runs. This approach has led to 21 runs and 33 hits in the first three games of this series. Baltimore’s hitters are in a groove, and the team’s offensive consistency is a significant advantage.

Grayson Rodriguez’s Home Dominance

Grayson Rodriguez has been solid at home, boasting a 3.19 ERA. He was strong in an earlier start against Toronto, and the Orioles have won 13 of his 19 starts this season, with each victory coming by at least 2 runs. Rodriguez’s home performance and his ability to keep the Blue Jays in check add to the Orioles’ confidence.

Blue Jays’ Struggles and Weak Bullpen

The Blue Jays have depleted an already weak bullpen and are running out a makeshift lineup with several AAAA players. They are also starting a 37-year-old opener with a 5.06 career ERA, rather than a tough lefty who was originally scheduled to start. This pitching disadvantage is likely to be exploited by the Orioles’ rejuvenated offense.

Key Offensive Contribution

Gunnar Henderson, moved from the leadoff spot to the 3-hole, is getting locked back in, providing a crucial boost to the Orioles’ lineup. His resurgence adds another layer of threat to an already potent Baltimore offense.

Bet: Orioles -1.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox

Dominant Pitching by Brady Singer

Brady Singer has been exceptional against the White Sox this season, posting a 1.47 ERA in 18.1 innings. Given the White Sox’s ongoing struggles at the plate, Singer is likely to keep their offense in check. The Royals’ pitching advantage is a key factor in this matchup.

White Sox’s Offensive Struggles

The White Sox are in the midst of a significant scoring drought, compounded by internal issues and a depleted bullpen. Their lineup has been largely ineffective, and the team is mired in a 16-game losing streak. This lack of offensive production is expected to continue, especially against a strong pitcher like Singer.

Introduction of Drew Thorpe

Drew Thorpe, one of the top pitching prospects in the league and a key acquisition in the Dylan Cease trade, will be starting for the White Sox. While Thorpe has shown potential, he has also had a couple of rough outings this season. He did, however, throw six shutout innings against Kansas City on July 20. The White Sox will likely want to protect their young starter, which could limit his innings and expose their vulnerable bullpen.

Kansas City’s Offensive Potential

While the Royals were held in check by White Sox rookie Jonathan Cannon, they have the potential to exploit Chicago’s spent bullpen. The Royals’ lineup, coupled with the White Sox’s internal turmoil and bullpen issues, suggests that Kansas City can score enough to cover the run line.

Bet: Under 9.5 / Wager: 3%

Bet: Royals -1.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Minnesota Twins at New York Mets

Home Field Advantage

The Mets have been dominant at home, particularly with Luis Severino on the mound. Severino has posted a 4-1 record with a 2.88 ERA at home, making him a reliable option for New York in this matchup. The Mets’ home-field advantage is a significant factor, and their recent success against the Twins adds to their confidence.

Key Lineup Changes

The Twins will be without their leading hitter, Jose Miranda, which is a crucial blow to their offensive potential. Miranda’s absence at the end of a road trip could make it challenging for the Twins to generate runs against a strong Mets pitching staff.

Impact of Francisco Alvarez

The Mets have a notably better record when second-year catcher Francisco Alvarez starts. His presence in the lineup today, after missing the first two games of the series, is a positive sign for the Mets. Alvarez’s ability to manage the game and contribute offensively boosts the Mets’ chances.

Recent Series Performance

The Mets have won each of the first two games of the series by multiple runs, indicating their strong form against the Twins. This recent performance suggests that the Mets should not be considered underdogs at home, and their momentum is expected to continue.

Bet: Mets +1 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Washington Nationals at Arizona Diamondbacks

Recent Team Performance

The Washington Nationals have been struggling significantly, displaying signs of a team that has essentially given up on the season. Their lackluster performance recently makes them vulnerable, especially against stronger teams.

Pitching Matchup

Arizona’s ace, Zac Gallen, takes the mound tonight. Gallen was nearly unbeatable at home last year and, while not quite at that level this season, he still boasts a respectable 5-3 record with a 3.40 ERA at home. His ability to control games and limit opposing offenses remains a key asset for the Diamondbacks.

Nationals’ Pitching Woes

On the other side, Washington lefty Mackenzie Gore has struggled mightily with a 6.51 ERA since the start of June. This poor performance makes him an easy target for the Diamondbacks’ hitters. Additionally, the possibility of seeing Joan Adon in relief, who was recently recalled from the minors, doesn’t inspire confidence for the Nationals.

Offensive Surge

The Diamondbacks’ offense is coming off a 22-hit game, indicating their bats are hot and capable of capitalizing on the Nationals’ pitching weaknesses. Such offensive momentum is crucial, especially when backed by strong pitching.

Home Field Advantage

Arizona’s home field has been a fortress with Gallen on the mound, and even though he hasn’t been as dominant as last season, his home performance still provides a significant edge.

Bet: Diamondbacks -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds

Pitching Edge

Nick Lodolo offers a significant edge for the Reds from the mound. When he is on, Lodolo can be exceptionally difficult for hitters to handle, especially from the left side. He demonstrated this effectiveness against the Cubs just last month, pitching back-to-back starts where he allowed only three earned runs across 12 innings. His ability to dominate the Cubs’ lineup, which has struggled against lefties, is a key factor in this matchup.

Cubs’ Struggles Against Lefties

The Cubs have one of the worst records in the league against left-handed pitching, sitting at 7-14. This ties them with the Marlins and White Sox for the fewest wins against left-handed pitchers in MLB. Lodolo’s effectiveness, combined with the Cubs’ struggles, enhances the Reds’ chances significantly.

Home Performance

The Reds have a solid track record when Lodolo starts at home, with a 6-3 record in his home starts. This home-field advantage, coupled with Lodolo’s strong performance, gives Cincinnati a crucial edge.

Cubs’ Road Woes

The Cubs are not playing their best baseball at the moment. They have a poor 4-15 record when Kyle Hendricks starts and have lost five of their last six road games. Hendricks’ recent performance away from home does not inspire confidence, and the Cubs’ overall form further tips the scales in favor of the Reds.

Bet: Reds ML / Wager: 3%

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres

Momentum and Recent Form

The San Diego Padres enter this matchup with significant momentum following an impressive comeback win last night. The Dodgers, on the other hand, are dealing with the absence of their All-Star Freddie Freeman, who is out due to a family emergency. This absence further tips the scales in favor of the Padres, who have been surging in the NL West.

Dodgers’ Pitching Concerns

Clayton Kershaw is still a formidable pitcher but is limited to about five innings these days. This limitation puts additional pressure on the Dodgers’ bullpen, which may have to cover a substantial portion of the game. Given Kershaw’s reduced workload, the Padres could have opportunities to exploit the Dodgers’ relief pitchers.

Padres’ Strong Bullpen Additions

While Dylan Cease’s recent performances have been stellar, there is a slight concern due to the high pitch count in his last start, which included a no-hitter. However, the Padres have bolstered their bullpen with All-Star relievers Tanner Scott and Jason Adam. Scott, recently acquired from the Marlins, should be available, and Adam, who didn’t pitch Tuesday, is fully rested. If Cease can provide a solid 6-7 innings, the Padres’ reinforced bullpen should be able to secure the win.

Bet: Padres ML / Wager: 3%