Massive Friday of Betting: Euro ‘24 and Copa America Quarterfinals & MLB Plays

Euro 24 (Quarterfinal): Germany vs Spain

Pick: Spain Draw No Bet / Wager: 4%

Pick: Both Teams to Score - Yes / Wager: 4%

Spain’s Momentum and Tactical Prowess

Spain is riding a wave of confidence heading into this Euro 2024 quarterfinal against Germany, having secured top spot in their group with a flawless record. La Roja demonstrated their dominance with comprehensive victories over Croatia, Italy, and Albania, and then showcased their offensive prowess by thrashing Georgia 4-1 in the Round of 16.

This Spanish team is technically adept, boasting key players who can change the game at any moment. The wings, powered by Nico Williams and Lamine Yamal, have been particularly effective, posing significant challenges for any defense they face. Manager Luis de la Fuente has effectively utilized his squad, resting his starters for the less critical group stage matches, ensuring they are fresh and ready for tougher challenges.

In their Round of 16 clash against Georgia, Spain’s 35 shots on goal and 13 on target were testaments to their attacking depth and versatility. Despite going down early due to an own goal, Spain’s ability to respond with four goals highlights their resilience and attacking capability. This momentum makes them slight favorites against Germany.

Germany’s Resilience and Key Players

Germany, unbeaten in their last eight games, enters this match with a solid record but a few concerns. They started their Euro 2024 campaign strongly with a 5-1 victory over Scotland and a 2-0 win against Hungary, but their form wavered slightly with a draw against Switzerland and a hard-fought 2-0 win over Denmark in the Round of 16.

Manager Julian Nagelsmann has navigated through some close encounters, relying heavily on the attacking prowess of Jamal Musiala, who has been outstanding throughout the tournament. Musiala’s ability to create and finish chances makes him a significant threat to Spain’s defense. Additionally, veterans Toni Kroos and Ilkay Gündogan have provided stability and experience in midfield, although they may face challenges against Spain’s dynamic midfield trio of Rodri, Pedri, and Ruiz.

Germany’s recent performances indicate a struggle to convert dominance into comfortable wins, as seen in their narrow victories and reliance on late goals. Their defensive lapses could be exploited by Spain’s high-tempo, technical game.

Match Expectations

Given Spain’s recent form and Germany’s potential vulnerabilities, we see Spain as the likely team to edge out this encounter. However, with Germany playing at home and having the support of the local fans, it won’t be an easy task. Both teams possess significant offensive capabilities, making the “Both Teams to Score” bet a logical choice.

Spain’s defensive record at the tournament has been impressive, conceding only once, but Germany’s attacking threats mean this might change. A balanced approach, focusing on Spain’s tactical superiority and Germany’s home advantage, suggests a close, competitive match with both sides finding the net.

Given these dynamics, we recommend betting on Spain with a Draw No Bet option to cover the possibility of a draw, alongside a bet on both teams to score. This strategy captures Spain’s form and Germany’s home field advantage, providing a balanced outlook on the game.

Euro ‘24 (Quarterfinal): Portugal vs France

Pick: Both Teams to Score - No / Wager: 4%

Pick: France ML @ +140 / Wager: 4%

Portugal’s Struggles in Front of Goal

The quarterfinal clash between Portugal and France, featuring some of the world’s best offensive talent, is expected to be an exhilarating affair. However, despite the firepower on display, recent form suggests we might be in for a more subdued, defensive encounter. Portugal started the tournament on a high note, netting five goals against Czechia and Turkey. Yet, their offensive output has since dwindled, failing to score in their last 210 minutes of play. This includes a 2-0 defeat to Georgia and a goalless draw with Slovenia, even through extra time.

Despite boasting world-class talents like Cristiano Ronaldo and Bruno Fernandes, Portugal has been plagued by missed opportunities and an inability to convert chances into goals. Facing France, whose defensive capabilities are significantly stronger than either Georgia or Slovenia, Portugal may find it difficult to break through. In knockout stages, teams often prioritize caution over aggression, aiming to avoid the costly first mistake.

France’s Defensive Prowess

France, ranked No. 2 in the world, also hasn’t lived up to their attacking potential. Featuring strikers like Kylian Mbappe and Olivier Giroud, the French team has only managed to score twice in their initial three matches. Their latest victory over Belgium was secured by a Belgian own goal, highlighting their offensive struggles. Despite their star-studded lineup, France has adopted a more cautious approach, focusing on defensive solidity.

In knockout competitions, this strategy often prevails, with teams avoiding risks and playing conservatively. Both Portugal and France have shown a tendency to prioritize defense, which sets the stage for a low-scoring, tightly contested match. Given the current form of both teams, it’s reasonable to expect another defensive display, with few goals likely.

Match Dynamics and Betting Strategy

Given Portugal’s offensive struggles and France’s defensive focus, the “Both Teams to Score - No” bet offers value. France’s disciplined defense is likely to stymie Portugal’s misfiring attack. Moreover, betting on a France victory at +140 is appealing, considering their overall quality and experience in managing tight games.

In summary, while the match features high-profile attackers, recent performances suggest a more defensive contest. Betting on both teams not to score and backing France to win aligns with the current form and tactical approaches of both sides.

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs

Pick: Cubs -1.5 @ +108 / Wager: 6%

Angels’ Offensive Struggles

The Los Angeles Angels are in a freefall, compounded by significant injuries. Losing Mike Trout was a huge blow, but the recent wrist injury to their best remaining hitter, Luis Rengifo, exacerbates their woes. The Angels have been particularly poor in Griffin Canning’s road starts, posting an 0-6 record, with five of those losses by two or more runs. This trend suggests a lack of both talent and energy, as evidenced by their dismal performance in their recent series against the Oakland Athletics.

Canning’s struggles on the mound are another critical factor. He has allowed nine home runs in his last eight starts, bringing his season total to 16. This vulnerability is particularly concerning given the hitter-friendly conditions at Wrigley Field. The Angels’ depleted lineup is unlikely to provide the necessary run support to overcome these pitching deficiencies.

Cubs’ Home Field Advantage

On the flip side, the Chicago Cubs have been solid at home, and they enter this matchup with a clear advantage on the mound. Left-hander Justin Steele has been a reliable starter for the Cubs, providing them with stability and effectiveness. While the Angels have fared decently against left-handed pitchers, Steele’s form and the overall strength of the Cubs’ roster should give Chicago the upper hand.

The Cubs’ ability to capitalize on Canning’s weaknesses, combined with their home field advantage, positions them well for a decisive victory. Given the Angels’ current state, betting on the Cubs to cover the -1.5 run line at +108 offers solid value. This matchup is a prime opportunity for Chicago to exploit Los Angeles’ struggles and secure a comfortable win.

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Washington Nationals

Pick: Cardinals -0.5 First 5 innings / Wager: 4%

Cardinals’ Recent Form and Pitching Edge

The St. Louis Cardinals have emerged as one of the best teams in baseball over the past six weeks, showcasing a strong and consistent performance. Key to their success has been the solid pitching of Sonny Gray, who continues to deliver quality starts for the team. Gray’s reliability on the mound gives the Cardinals a significant edge in the first five innings of this matchup.

Nationals’ Struggles with Patrick Corbin

On the other hand, the Washington Nationals have been struggling, particularly when Patrick Corbin is their starting pitcher. Corbin has been getting shelled consistently, and the Nationals have a poor 5-12 record in games he starts, with 11 of those losses coming by multiple runs. Corbin’s continued difficulties on the mound make the Nationals vulnerable early in games.

The Cardinals have a winning record against left-handed pitchers, which bodes well for their matchup against Corbin. Given the Nationals’ persistent issues and the Cardinals’ strong form, backing St. Louis to cover the -0.5 run line in the first five innings at +108 offers a valuable betting opportunity. Expect the Cardinals to take advantage of Corbin’s struggles and establish an early lead.

MLB: Red Sox at New York Yankees

Pick: Red Sox ML @ +120 / Wager: 4%

Red Sox’s Recent Dominance Over Yankees

The Boston Red Sox have recently had the upper hand over the New York Yankees, even when the Yankees were healthier and in better form. This trend is likely to continue given the current state of both teams. The Yankees’ lineup is struggling, relying heavily on Aaron Judge and Juan Soto, with little support from the rest of the batting order. The lack of a consistent leadoff hitter and limited power makes the Yankees’ offense less threatening.

Pitching and Bullpen Advantage

Boston also holds the advantage in both starting pitching and bullpen performance for this matchup. The Yankees’ starter, Nestor Cortes, has become less effective as opponents have adjusted to his deceptive delivery, making him a mid-rotation pitcher at best. In contrast, Tanner Houck of the Red Sox has been impressive on the road, boasting a stellar 1.85 ERA and holding opponents to a .185 batting average away from Fenway Park. Notably, Houck has successfully contained Aaron Judge in their past encounters, adding to his reliability.

Furthermore, the Red Sox’s bullpen has been superior to the Yankees’, providing another layer of security in backing Boston. Given these factors, the Red Sox are the better overall team at the moment and have demonstrated stronger performance against AL East rivals. Taking the Red Sox to win at +120 offers solid value in this matchup.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Reds ML / Wager: 7%

Consistent Struggles of Reese Olson

When betting on MLB games, sometimes the best strategy is the simplest. The Detroit Tigers’ Reese Olson has been a consistent weak link, with the team losing 13 of his last 15 starts. Olson’s June performance was particularly concerning, as he posted a 5.73 ERA across six starts. This rough patch contributed to the Tigers’ broader struggles, highlighted by an 8-18 skid since early June. Olson’s continued inability to perform effectively makes betting against the Tigers when he’s on the mound a straightforward decision.

Cincinnati’s Recent Momentum and Reliable Pitching

On the other hand, the Cincinnati Reds are in a favorable position. They just swept the Yankees and didn’t even need to leave New York, minimizing travel fatigue. Reds’ starter Carson Spiers has been solid, maintaining a 2.70 ERA since mid-May. This reliable pitching, combined with the team’s recent momentum, gives Cincinnati a significant edge over a struggling Tigers squad. The straightforward nature of this matchup, with Olson’s persistent issues and the Reds’ current form, makes backing Cincinnati an attractive option.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Oakland Athletics

Pick: Under 8.5 @ +100 / Wager: 6%

Oakland’s Improved Pitching and Bullpen Performance

The Oakland Athletics have recently shown surprising resilience, particularly with their midweek sweep of the Angels at the Coliseum, which included back-to-back shutouts. Manager Mark Kotsay’s bullpen has been performing exceptionally well, providing a strong defensive backbone for the team. Friday’s starter, Hogan Harris, has been mostly serviceable with a 3.18 ERA, contributing to the team’s improved pitching dynamics. This renewed defensive strength sets the stage for a low-scoring game.

Baltimore’s Offensive Struggles on the Road

The Baltimore Orioles’ offense has struggled to find its rhythm on the current road trip, contributing to lower scoring games. Additionally, Oakland’s offense has been inconsistent, further supporting the likelihood of a low-scoring matchup. Orioles’ starter Albert Suarez has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.43 ERA, and he is expected to limit Oakland’s scoring opportunities before turning the game over to his capable bullpen. Given the recent performance trends of both teams, clearing a total of 8.5 runs seems unlikely. Betting on the Under is a prudent choice in this context.