BrownBagBets' Winning Strategy: Euro 2024, NBA Finals, and Tailored Picks

Yesterday was a 3-3 day for BrownBagBets, but thanks to our meticulous approach to adjusting each pick with different wager guidance, we still managed to achieve a 4% bankroll growth overnight. This exemplifies what makes BrownBagBets special. We don’t just pick teams; we analyze the likelihoods and adjust our wagers accordingly for each game, ensuring that our strategies are dynamic and tailored to maximize returns.

Our method involves thorough research and analysis for every pick, considering factors such as recent form, team dynamics, and specific match conditions. By continuously adjusting our strategies based on these insights, we can maintain a disciplined approach that optimizes our chances of success, even on days when results are mixed.

As we look to today, Euro 2024 continues with exciting matchups between Slovakia vs. Belgium and France vs. Austria. Additionally, Game 5 of the NBA Finals is on the horizon. However, given our recent challenges with NBA playoff picks, we’ll be playing that one safe.

Now, let’s dive into today’s picks and make the most of these opportunities.

Euro 2024: Belgium vs Slovakia and France vs Austria

Picks:

• Belgium ML + France ML @ 130 / Wager: 3%

• Romelu Lukaku anytime goal scorer / Wager: 3%

Overview:

Before we dive into these matchups, let's reflect on the first few days of UEFA Euro 2024. Historically, the Euros have been characterized by low-scoring, cagey affairs. However, the first four matches of this tournament have defied that trend, with all four games seeing Over 2.5 goals and BTTS hitting in three of them, with only Croatia failing to score. While it's early to declare a definitive trend, the vibrant atmosphere in Germany's Bundesliga stadiums has certainly been a contributing factor, encouraging teams to play more openly and aggressively.

Belgium vs Slovakia

Belgium’s Offensive Power

Group E is a tricky one. Belgium, boasting stars like Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku, and Leandro Trossard, are favorites to win the group. Despite falling short of expectations in recent years, Belgium has the potential to be a dark horse in this competition. Their offensive unit is strong, and they control the midfield well, which should give them an edge over Slovakia.

Slovakia’s Resilience

Slovakia might lack the superstar names, but they are a consistent and tough side. They scored twice against Portugal in the qualifiers and have been potent offensively. Key players like Robert Bozenik and Lukas Haraslin will be crucial in their attack. However, their defense can be slow, and Lukaku could exploit this vulnerability in their opener.

Match Analysis

Despite Belgium being heavy favorites at -250, this game could follow the high-scoring trend seen so far in the tournament. Both teams have the capability to find the net, but Belgium’s superior talent should see them through. The link-up play between De Bruyne and Lukaku will be vital, and Slovakia will look to counter-attack whenever possible. Belgium’s coach, Domenico Tedesco, prefers a high-press philosophy which has worked well against stronger opponents.

France vs Austria

France’s Quest for Redemption

After losing on penalties in the 2022 World Cup final, France is seeking redemption at the Euros. With Kylian Mbappé, they have the best player in the world and are co-favorites to win the tournament. However, their group is challenging, and Austria poses a tricky first match.

Austria’s Tactical Setup

Austria, under Ralf Rangnick, had an impressive qualifying campaign, finishing second to Belgium. They are well-organized defensively and effective in transition. They create opportunities through high turnovers and crosses, which will test France’s defense, known to allow a high cross-completion rate.

NBA Finals (Game 5): Dallas Mavericks at Boston Celtics

Pick: Mavericks +6.5 / Wager: 7%

Boston Celtics’ Game 4 Performance:

After a no-show effort in Game 4, the Celtics might deserve a mulligan, but it raised questions about their ability to close out the series. Boston had been dominant earlier in the series, but their recent performance leaves room for doubt.

Dallas Mavericks’ Resurgence:

The Mavericks, while still down 3-1 in the series, have dramatically shifted the dynamics over the past five quarters. After trailing by 21 points last Wednesday, Dallas has outscored Boston by a staggering 52 points. This surge has been driven by improved offense and a more aggressive Luka Doncic, who has been attacking the paint effectively.

Key Changes:

1. Offensive Revival: The Mavericks’ offense has started to function cohesively, with contributions from both starters and bench players. This balanced attack has made them more formidable.

2. Boston’s Defensive Challenges: The Celtics have missed the rim protection that Kristaps Porzingis could have provided. This defensive gap has allowed Dallas to exploit the paint more effectively.

3. Scoring Averages: Boston’s scoring has dipped significantly in this series, averaging only 100 points per game, well below their season averages. This scoring struggle is a critical factor that keeps games closer than anticipated.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +110 / Wager: 6%

Analysis:

The San Diego Padres find themselves in a challenging situation as they face the Philadelphia Phillies on the road. Having just been swept by the Mets at Citi Field, the Padres' road woes continue, extending their losing streak away from home to seven games. The discomfort of playing away from the familiar confines of Petco Park is evident, particularly for Monday's starter Randy Vasquez, who has struggled significantly on the road with a 5.50 ERA.

In contrast, the Philadelphia Phillies are thriving in their home environment. The Phillies have a stellar home record, winning 11 of their past 12 games at Citizens Bank Park. This impressive run is bolstered by the performance of their Monday starter, Christopher Sanchez, who has been exceptional at home. Sanchez boasts an impressive 1.95 ERA in six home starts, indicating his comfort and effectiveness on the mound in Philadelphia.

Given the Phillies' recent home dominance and the Padres' continued struggles on the road, the edge clearly favors Philadelphia in this matchup. The Phillies' ability to consistently win by multiple runs at home, combined with Sanchez's strong pitching performances, makes the run line an attractive option. Expect the Phillies to continue their winning ways and cover the -1.5 spread against a Padres team that is struggling to find its footing away from San Diego.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Under 8 @ +100 / Wager: 6%

Pick: Pirates -0.5 1st 5 Innings / Wager: 4%

Waiting for the line movement has paid off, as the total has risen from 8 to 8.5 at several books. Although it seems unlikely to rise further, the current total provides a solid value, particularly given the starting pitchers for this matchup. The listed pitchers are rookie right-handers Carson Spiers for the Reds and Paul Skenes for the Pirates.

Paul Skenes, the Pirates' rookie, has quickly become a must-watch talent. With an impressive ERA of 2.43 and a WHIP of 0.96 through his first six starts, Skenes has more than lived up to his pre-season hype. His latest performance saw him stifle the Cardinals, limiting them to just two hits over six innings. The Reds will face Skenes for the first time, which historically favors the pitcher in such matchups.

On the other side, Carson Spiers may not carry the same level of recognition as Skenes, but the 26-year-old has been effective since his call-up. Over his past 15.1 innings, Spiers has allowed just two earned runs, showcasing his ability to keep opponents in check. The Pirates, who also have not faced Spiers yet, may struggle initially against the unfamiliar pitcher.

Both teams feature rookie pitchers who have yet to be seen by their opponents, creating a scenario where the offenses may have difficulty adjusting. While the first five innings (F5) total of 4 is less appealing than a potential 4.5, the full game under remains an attractive option, especially given the uncertainty surrounding the reliability of both bullpens.

Considering the effectiveness of both rookie pitchers and their unfamiliarity to the opposing lineups, the under appears to be a strong play. Skenes has been dominant, and Spiers has shown he can handle major league hitters. With both bullpens being less reliable, focusing on the starting pitching and betting the full game under 8 offers value.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Colorado Rockies

Pick: Under 12 @ +100 / Wager: 6%

Despite winning two of three games against the Royals, it was a challenging weekend for the Dodgers, who saw key players Yoshinobu Yamamoto (arm) and Mookie Betts (hand) sustain injuries, sidelining them indefinitely. Now, the Dodgers head to Denver to face the Rockies, where they will encounter one of the National League's top pitchers, Cal Quantrill.

Cal Quantrill has been in excellent form, posting a stellar 1.91 ERA across his last eight starts. Although the majority of these starts were away from the hitter-friendly Coors Field, Quantrill has also performed well at home. In his last two starts at Coors Field, he has maintained a respectable 2.25 ERA. Moreover, none of the last eight games he started have featured scorelines exceeding 10 runs, indicating his ability to manage games effectively, even in a challenging pitching environment like Denver.

The Dodgers' offense has also been struggling recently, managing only 12 runs in their last five games. The absence of Betts significantly impacts their lineup, reducing their scoring potential. Additionally, the Rockies' offense has not been particularly explosive, which further supports the case for a lower-scoring game.

Given Cal Quantrill's recent dominance and the Dodgers' offensive struggles, betting the under on a high total of 12 runs appears to be a strong play. Even in the high-altitude environment of Coors Field, the combination of Quantrill's effective pitching and the Dodgers' reduced firepower makes the under a favorable bet.