Big Sunday @ BrownBagBets

Euro 2024: Slovenia vs Denmark

Pick: Both Teams to Score / Wager: 5%

Match Overview:

Favored Denmark meets Slovenia in a pivotal fixture on Sunday, crucial for both teams’ hopes of advancing to the knockout phase of Euro 2024. The urgency of this match is underscored by their familiarity from two recent qualifying meetings in Group H, where Denmark took four points from the two tightly contested games. Denmark aims to replicate their impressive run to the semifinals in Euro 2020 and bounce back from a disappointing group stage exit in the 2022 World Cup. Meanwhile, Slovenia is seeking to advance to their first major tournament knockout phase in their second European Championship appearance.

Slovenia’s Tactical Approach:

Slovenia’s tactical approach is somewhat of a throwback, utilizing a 4-4-2 formation with a low block under manager Matjaž Kek. This strategy has proven effective on the international qualifying stage, where simplicity often prevails due to limited training time. Key to Slovenia’s success is RB Leipzig’s 21-year-old striker Benjamin Šeško, who scored five times during qualifying, helping Slovenia edge ahead of Denmark on goal difference.

In goal, Slovenia boasts one of the tournament’s most experienced No. 1s, Atlético Madrid’s Jan Oblak. Despite an uneven club season, Oblak kept four clean sheets in eight qualifying appearances, saving 76.9% of the shots on target he faced. Slovenia’s solid defensive setup and the attacking prowess of Šeško make them a formidable opponent.

Denmark’s Offensive Edge:

Denmark finished ahead of Slovenia atop Group H, primarily due to their superior head-to-head record. However, the Danes could have made their qualification process easier with more clinical finishing in the final third. Despite dominating possession — averaging over 58% in all ten qualifiers and exceeding 80% in three of those — Denmark only scored more than three goals once, in a 4-0 win over San Marino.

Manchester United’s Rasmus Højlund was the focal point of Denmark’s attack, scoring seven of their 19 goals and averaging just over one goal per 90 minutes. His club teammate Christian Eriksen, alongside Wolfsburg’s Jonas Wind, provided crucial assists, with each player contributing three assists during qualifying. Manager Kasper Hjulmand’s squad is seeking their first tournament-opening win since their 1-0 victory over Peru in the 2018 World Cup.

Euro 2024: Serbia vs England

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals / Wager: 5%

Exploiting Serbia’s Defensive Weaknesses

England will aim to exploit Serbia’s defensive weaknesses when the teams meet at Arena AufSchalke in Gelsenkirchen on Sunday. The Serbians crashed out of the 2022 World Cup at the group stage after conceding eight goals in three games. While they boast a wealth of attacking talent, their defense has consistently been their Achilles’ heel.

England’s Attacking Threat

England captain Harry Kane is ideally placed to expose Serbia’s defensive frailties. Kane had an incredible season, scoring 36 goals in just 32 Bundesliga games and breaking several records. His prowess in front of goal could pose significant problems for Serbia’s centerbacks.

England’s Recent Form and Fitness Concerns

England are co-favorites to win Euro 2024 after breezing through the qualifying campaign with an unbeaten record. Impressive wins against Italy and Ukraine suggest that this might finally be the time for the Three Lions to end their trophy drought, which dates back to the 1966 World Cup.

However, expectations were tempered following a shock 1-0 defeat to Iceland in a pre-tournament friendly. Manager Gareth Southgate hopes that this result serves as a timely wake-up call for his players ahead of the Euros.

Defensive Injuries for England

England cannot afford to be complacent against a Serbian team with a potent attacking unit. One of England’s regular centerbacks, Harry Maguire, will miss the tournament due to injury. His defensive partner, John Stones, is struggling with an illness but is expected to recover in time to face Serbia.

There are also concerns over the fitness of left-back Luke Shaw, which may force Kieran Trippier, a right-footed defender, to play on the left flank. As a result, England’s defense looks somewhat vulnerable right now.

England’s Offensive Depth

Fortunately for England fans, Southgate has an abundance of attacking talent at his disposal. While Kane was breaking records at Bayern Munich, Jude Bellingham was leading Real Madrid to a Champions League and La Liga double.

Phil Foden won all the big individual awards in the Premier League, Bukayo Saka continues to excel, and Cole Palmer enjoyed a breakout season. Additionally, players like Anthony Gordon, Jarrod Bowen, and Eberechi Eze provide exciting depth. This wealth of talent should allow England to capitalize on Serbia’s defensive issues.

Serbia’s Attacking Firepower

Serbia possesses enough attacking talent to take advantage of England’s defensive vulnerabilities. Aleksandar Mitrović is a powerful center forward, with Dušan Vlahović of Juventus and Luka Jović of AC Milan providing depth.

Dušan Tadić and Filip Kostić can deliver dangerous crosses into the box, and Sergej Milinković-Savić is a superb playmaker, capable of making life difficult for England. However, Serbia may struggle to match England’s strength in midfield, where players like Declan Rice, Bellingham, and Foden can control the game.

MLB: St Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs

Pick: Cardinals ML @ +115 / Wager: 6%

Overview:

The St. Louis Cardinals take on the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field, aiming to continue their recent surge in form. Despite a setback against Shota Imanaga on Saturday, the Cardinals have been playing well over the past few weeks and look to capitalize on the recent struggles of the Cubs.

Cardinals’ Recent Form:

The Cardinals have been on a notable uptick, winning 14 out of their last 23 games. This resurgence has propelled them back into the thick of the National League wild card race, giving them plenty of motivation to continue their strong play. Under manager Oliver Marmol, the Cardinals have shown resilience and the ability to bounce back from tough losses.

Miles Mikolas on the Mound:

Miles Mikolas has been a standout for the Cardinals in June, delivering impressive performances in his recent starts. In his two starts this month, Mikolas has posted a stellar 1.38 ERA and an exceptionally low 0.54 WHIP. His command and control have been impeccable, making him a formidable opponent for any lineup. Mikolas’ ability to keep hitters off balance and limit baserunners will be crucial in this matchup.

Cubs’ Recent Struggles:

The Cubs, on the other hand, have had a rough stretch recently. Despite winning on Saturday, they have lost five of the last six starts made by Jameson Taillon. Taillon has struggled to find consistency on the mound, and this has contributed to the Cubs’ difficulties in securing victories. Their offense has been inconsistent, often failing to provide the necessary run support.

Jameson Taillon’s Challenges:

Jameson Taillon’s recent performances have not been up to par, contributing to the Cubs’ struggles. His inability to consistently pitch deep into games and his susceptibility to giving up runs have been problematic for Chicago. The Cardinals’ lineup, which has been hitting well recently, will look to take advantage of Taillon’s vulnerabilities.

Cardinals’ Offensive Potential:

The Cardinals’ offense has been clicking, with key hitters finding their form. Players like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have been leading the charge, providing the necessary firepower to support their pitching staff. Against a struggling Taillon, the Cardinals’ hitters should have opportunities to score runs and put pressure on the Cubs.

MLB: Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals

Pick: Nationals ML / Wager: 8%

Overview:

The Washington Nationals face off against the Miami Marlins at Nationals Park, continuing their impressive season series dominance. The Nationals have managed to win all six meetings against the Marlins this year, outscoring them by a significant margin. This matchup sees the Nationals’ emerging pitching talent Mitchell Parker go up against Miami’s struggling Jesus Luzardo.

Nationals’ Dominance Over Marlins:

Who could have anticipated that the Nationals would have such a commanding record against any team this season? Washington has swept all six games against Miami, outscoring them 48-17. Their recent victories at Nationals Park have been particularly dominant, winning the last two games by a combined score of 12-1. This sustained dominance provides a strong psychological edge going into Sunday’s game.

Mitchell Parker’s Emergence:

Mitchell Parker has been a bright spot in the Nationals’ rotation. In three starts in June, Parker has posted a solid 2.60 ERA, showcasing his ability to effectively navigate through lineups and hand the game over to a bullpen that has been surprisingly reliable. Parker’s ability to keep hitters off balance and his recent form make him a crucial part of Washington’s strategy to secure another victory.

Marlins’ Struggles:

The Marlins have had a difficult season, particularly when it comes to generating offense. Their inability to score runs consistently has been a major issue, and this is evident in their season series against the Nationals. Miami’s offensive woes are likely to continue against Parker, who has shown the capability to shut down opposing lineups.

Jesus Luzardo’s Inconsistencies:

Jesus Luzardo has had a challenging season, struggling to find consistency on the mound. His 5.11 ERA reflects his difficulties in maintaining control and limiting damage. Luzardo has been prone to giving up runs, and with the Nationals’ offense currently in good form, he could be in for another tough outing. Trusting Luzardo in this matchup seems risky, given his recent performances and the Marlins’ overall struggles.

Nationals’ Offensive Firepower:

The Nationals’ offense has been clicking against the Marlins, with key players stepping up to produce runs. The likes of Juan Soto and Josh Bell have been instrumental in driving the offense, providing the necessary run support for their pitchers. Against a struggling Luzardo, the Nationals’ lineup is well-positioned to continue their scoring spree.

MLB: San Diego Padres at New York Mets

Pick: Padres ML / Wager: 5%

Overview:

The San Diego Padres are looking to avoid a sweep as they face the New York Mets in the final game of the series. With Dylan Cease on the mound, the Padres have a strong chance to bounce back, especially given Cease’s extra day of rest and his solid early-day game performance. The Mets counter with Tylor Megill, who has had a mixed season so far.

Dylan Cease’s Advantage:

Dylan Cease comes into this game well-rested, with an extra day off providing him the opportunity to be at his best. Cease has demonstrated the ability to limit hard contact, with a hard-hit rate of 36.6%. This skill will be crucial in navigating through a Mets lineup that has shown vulnerability in recent games.

Cease also tends to perform well in early-day games, maintaining focus and command which has helped him deliver quality starts. The Padres will be relying on him to set the tone early and keep the Mets’ offense in check.

Mets’ Pitching Concerns:

Tylor Megill has been reliant on his four-seam fastball, throwing it 50% of the time. However, this could play into the hands of the Padres’ hitters, particularly Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr., who both excel against this pitch type. Both hitters rank in the top 10 in run value against the four-seam fastball, making them dangerous matchups for Megill.

Additionally, Megill has a hard-hit rate of 43.1% and his expected ERA (xERA) is significantly higher (4.31) than his current ERA (3.51). This suggests that he might be due for some regression, especially against a Padres lineup capable of taking advantage of pitchers who give up hard contact.

Padres’ Strong Record in Game Threes:

The Padres have shown resilience in bouncing back in the final game of a series. They have an impressive 8-4 record in game threes following a loss. This ability to adjust and come back strong is a positive indicator for their chances in avoiding the sweep against the Mets.

Mets’ Travel Distraction:

The Mets have not performed well when Tylor Megill starts, holding a 1-4 record in those games. With the team scheduled to travel to Texas after this game, there might be some distraction or lack of focus, which could further tilt the scales in favor of the Padres.

MLB: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Yankees -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 8%

Overview:

The New York Yankees look to bounce back and secure the rubber match in their series against the Boston Red Sox. Despite a rare stumble on Saturday, the Yankees are in strong form, winning 12 of their last 16 games. They will be confident heading into this game with Marcus Stroman on the mound, who has been consistently effective in his recent outings.

Yankees’ Strong Performance:

The Yankees have been one of the hottest teams in baseball recently, boasting a 12-4 record over their past 16 games. This strong stretch of play has been fueled by solid pitching, timely hitting, and a deep lineup that has managed to produce runs in crucial moments.

Marcus Stroman’s Recent Success:

Marcus Stroman has been a key contributor to the Yankees’ success. Winning nine of his past eleven starts, Stroman has been in excellent form, providing the Yankees with a reliable arm on the mound. His latest outing against Kansas City was particularly impressive, as he threw 5 2/3 innings of shutout baseball, showcasing his ability to dominate opposing lineups.

Red Sox’s Struggles with Kutter Crawford:

The Red Sox have had a challenging season, and one of the surprising stats has been their struggles in games started by Kutter Crawford. Boston has lost seven consecutive games when Crawford starts, indicating a pattern of difficulty in providing run support and maintaining leads. This trend is concerning for the Red Sox, especially against a strong Yankees team.