Winning Strategy: Euro 2024, MLB Picks, and Stanley Cup Action

Another 3-3 night for BrownBagBets, but once again we ended up winning the evening with a 4% bankroll gain. The highlight of the night was our play on the Phillies, who rolled over the Padres, bringing in a solid +110 return. A big congratulations to the Boston Celtics on their NBA championship win last night! We have never been happier to see a Boston team win here at BrownBagBets, as it signals the end of the NBA Playoffs, which have been an Achilles heel for us this season.

Today is packed with exciting opportunities. We have the final set of initial group matches at Euro 2024, with a key focus on Czech Republic vs. Cristiano Ronaldo’s Portugal side. Additionally, we have 15 MLB games to choose from, providing a rich landscape for strategic betting. Let’s not forget Game 5 of the Stanley Cup, adding to the thrilling sports action.

Let’s aim for a big night and dive into today’s picks and wagers. With our disciplined approach and strategic insights, we’re ready to make the most of these opportunities.

Euro 2024: Turkey vs Georgia

Pick: Under 2.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

Pick: Turkey ML / Wager: 2%

Opening Match Dynamics:

Turkey and Georgia kick off their Euro 2024 campaign with a critical Group F clash. Turkey, returning to the Euros after a disappointing previous outing, has rejuvenated its squad with young talent. Georgia, making their debut in the European Championship, aims to make a statement in their first match.

Turkey’s Form and Strategy:

Turkey enters this tournament in a transitional phase, showcasing a youthful and promising squad. Their qualifying journey was tumultuous initially, prompting a managerial change. Vincenzo Montella took the reins in October 2023, immediately improving their performances. Under Montella, Turkey created 5.01 expected goals in three qualifying matches and even triumphed over Germany in a friendly.

Montella’s tactical approach emphasizes quick, fluid passing and creating transition opportunities with skilled ball carriers. However, Turkey will need to break down a defensively structured Georgia side, similar to their 1-1 draw against Wales, where they managed 1.46 expected goals.

Georgia’s Tactical Setup:

Georgia’s strength lies in their attacking duo of Kvaratskhelia and Mikautadze. Despite this, their overall squad lacks depth, particularly in defense. They adopt a passive defensive approach, often sitting back in a 5-3-2 formation, attempting to deny central space and pushing play wide. This defensive strategy, however, has proven shaky, as they conceded 2.25 xG per 90 minutes during qualifying — the highest among the Euro field.

Georgia’s vulnerability in wide areas could be exploited by Turkey, which excelled in accurate crosses during qualifying. Turkey’s 19-year-old Kenan Yıldız, from Juventus, is a key player to watch. His ability to beat defenders and create scoring opportunities will be pivotal against Georgia’s defense.

Match Expectations:

Given the stakes, both teams are likely to adopt a cautious approach, particularly in the early stages. Turkey has struggled to find the net recently, scoring only twice in their last four matches. Conversely, Georgia has shown defensive resilience, keeping clean sheets in two of their last three fixtures.

Expect a low-scoring encounter as both teams prioritize a solid defensive foundation to avoid an opening-match defeat. Turkey’s superior squad depth and tactical nous under Montella give them the edge, but goals may be at a premium.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals (Game 5): Edmonton Oilers at Florida Panthers

Pick: Panthers ML / Wager: 4%

Panthers’ Focus and Home Advantage:

The Florida Panthers had a chance to sweep the series in Game 4 but seemed to lose focus, resulting in a blowout loss to the Edmonton Oilers. This situation mirrors what we saw in the NBA Finals, where the Celtics, after a loss on the road, came back to finish off the series at home. Historically, no team has ever won Game 5 on the road in the Stanley Cup Finals when originally trailing 3-0, which bodes well for the Panthers’ chances.

Florida has shown resilience at home, winning four straight in these playoffs. The familiar environment of the BB&T Center should help them refocus and leverage the home crowd’s energy. Their playoff performance at home has been solid, and they will be eager to capitalize on this opportunity to clinch the Cup.

Sergei Bobrovsky’s Playoff Performance:

Goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been a cornerstone of Florida’s playoff success. After a loss in the playoffs this year, Bobrovsky has bounced back with a stellar record of 4-1, a 1.97 GAA, and a .914 save percentage. His ability to recover and perform at a high level after a setback is crucial for the Panthers’ confidence heading into Game 5.

Bobrovsky’s experience and poise in high-stakes situations will be vital as the Panthers aim to close out the series. His performance can set the tone for the rest of the team, providing the defensive stability needed to fend off the Oilers’ potent offense.

Oilers’ Challenges on the Road:

The Edmonton Oilers face a daunting task, attempting to win Game 5 on the road after being down 3-0 in the series. Historically, this has proven to be an insurmountable challenge in the Stanley Cup Finals. The Oilers did manage a significant victory in Game 4, but maintaining that momentum in the hostile environment of a potential series-clinching game for Florida is a different challenge altogether.

Key Matchups and Strategies:

The Panthers need to tighten their defensive play and limit the scoring opportunities for Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and the rest of the Oilers’ top offensive players. Expect Florida to focus on a structured defensive approach while looking to capitalize on transition opportunities and power plays.

On the flip side, the Oilers will need to replicate their Game 4 offensive explosion while finding a way to solve Bobrovsky’s goaltending. Edmonton must maintain disciplined play, avoid unnecessary penalties, and sustain offensive pressure to keep the Panthers on their heels.

MLB: San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +135 / Wager: 5%

San Diego’s Road Woes:

The Padres are struggling mightily on the road, currently enduring an eight-game road losing streak. Their latest defeat came in a 9-2 loss to the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, highlighting their ongoing issues away from Petco Park. Despite Michael King’s recent strong performances on the mound, San Diego’s inability to secure road victories remains a significant concern.

Michael King’s Performance:

Michael King has indeed been a bright spot for the Padres, showing impressive form on the mound with six wins in his last eight starts. However, individual brilliance has not been enough to overcome the collective struggles of the Padres, particularly when they are the visiting team. The challenge for King will be to maintain his high level of performance while receiving the necessary run support from his teammates, which has been lacking on the road.

Phillies’ Home Dominance:

Conversely, the Phillies have been exceptional at home, winning 12 of their last 13 games at Citizens Bank Park. This home field advantage has played a crucial role in their recent success, allowing them to build momentum and confidence in front of their fans. Philadelphia’s lineup has been productive, and their pitching staff has provided the stability needed to secure victories.

Aaron Nola’s Impact:

While Aaron Nola had a rough outing against the Red Sox last Thursday, the Phillies have generally thrived with him on the mound. Prior to that game, Philadelphia had won 11 of Nola’s last 12 starts, indicating his reliability as a starting pitcher. Nola will be motivated to bounce back from his recent setback and deliver a strong performance to help the Phillies continue their home winning streak.

Key Matchups and Strategies:

Philadelphia’s offense will look to capitalize on any mistakes made by King and the Padres’ pitching staff. The Phillies have been efficient in scoring runs, particularly at home, and will aim to put pressure on San Diego early in the game. Defensively, the Phillies will need to contain the Padres’ hitters and provide Nola with the run support necessary to secure a decisive victory.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Washington Nationals

Pick: Nationals ML / Wager: 5%

Nationals’ Recent Form:

The Washington Nationals are on a hot streak, winning eight of their last nine games, and they are close to reaching the .500 mark for the season. This resurgence has been driven largely by their pitching staff, which has outperformed expectations and provided the stability needed for their recent success. The Nationals have been playing with confidence and cohesion, making them a formidable opponent.

Jake Irvin’s Performance:

Jake Irvin has been a standout for the Nationals, delivering stellar performances consistently. With a remarkable 1.48 ERA over his last five starts, Irvin has become a reliable arm in the rotation. His ability to keep opposing batters off balance and limit runs has been crucial to the Nationals’ recent winning streak. Irvin’s form will be key to Washington’s chances of securing another victory.

Diamondbacks’ Struggles:

The Arizona Diamondbacks, on the other hand, have been struggling and appear overvalued in this matchup. They are not the same team that made a deep postseason run last year. Arizona’s recent form has been less than impressive, and they are now opting to start Slade Cecconi, who has struggled mightily with an 8.25 ERA in his three June starts. This decision underscores the difficulties the D-backs are facing in finding consistent pitching.

Pitching Matchup:

The contrast in starting pitching heavily favors the Nationals. Jake Irvin’s recent dominance on the mound provides a significant edge over Cecconi, who has been unable to find his footing in the majors. The Nationals will look to capitalize on this mismatch and put pressure on Cecconi early in the game.

Home Advantage:

Playing at home, the Nationals have the additional benefit of familiarity and support from their fans. This home-field advantage could play a crucial role in maintaining their momentum and securing another win.

Offensive Support:

While the pitching has been a focal point, the Nationals’ offense has also contributed effectively during their winning streak. Timely hitting and the ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities have been instrumental. The Nationals will need to continue this trend to support Irvin and secure a win.

MLB: New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles

Pick: Over 8.5 / Wager: 5%

Simulations and Projections:

Our expert simulations suggest that the total for this game should be set higher, between 9 (-125) and 9.5 (-105), indicating a strong likelihood of a high-scoring game. This projection aligns well with our analysis of the teams’ recent performances and conditions for the game.

Weather Conditions:

Weather can play a significant role in baseball outcomes, particularly with regard to scoring. On Tuesday, the conditions at Yankee Stadium are expected to be ideal for hitters, with temperatures in the upper 80s and high humidity. These factors typically help the ball carry further, potentially turning routine fly balls into home runs.

Yankees’ Offense:

The Yankees have a potent lineup capable of scoring runs in bunches. They have shown the ability to capitalize on favorable hitting conditions and will look to do so again in this game. Key hitters in the lineup, such as Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, can significantly impact the total with their power.

Orioles’ Contributions:

The Baltimore Orioles have also been productive at the plate and should be able to contribute enough to the total. Nestor Cortes, the Yankees’ starting pitcher, has struggled with his fastball, allowing a .346 wOBA and an average exit velocity of 92.6 MPH. This suggests that the Orioles’ hitters could have success against him, driving up the score.

Pitching Matchup:

Nestor Cortes’ recent struggles with his fastball make him a vulnerable target for the Orioles’ offense. His inability to effectively control and limit damage with his primary pitch could lead to several scoring opportunities for Baltimore. Conversely, the Orioles’ pitching staff has also been inconsistent, which bodes well for the Yankees’ high-powered offense.

Recent Trends:

Both teams have been involved in high-scoring games recently, adding confidence to the over bet. Their respective offensive strengths and pitching vulnerabilities create a perfect storm for a game that could easily surpass the 8.5 total.