BrownBagBets' Winning Streak: Euro 2024, NHL Playoffs, and MLB Action Today

Recap of Last Night

Last night was another solid performance for BrownBagBets. We ended with a 5-2 record, showcasing our strategic approach to betting. Wins from SEA -142, CIN +125, MIN -180, Over 8.5 -110 in the TB vs. ATL game, and NYY -1.5 -105 helped us achieve a 41.86% ROI. While we took a couple of losses with DET -106 and SD -1.5 +154, the overall outcome was a net positive, reinforcing the strength of our methodology.

What Makes BrownBagBets Special

At BrownBagBets, we believe in a disciplined approach to bankroll management. We spread our bets strategically to manage risk and maximize returns over the course of a month. Our volume betting strategy helps accrue loyalty tier credits, ensuring we benefit from every wager, win or lose. We don't just give picks; we teach the strategy behind them, empowering our community to bet smarter and more effectively. This disciplined approach has helped us maintain consistent success and resilience, even through the ups and downs of the betting landscape.

Preview of Today

Today promises to be an exciting day for sports betting enthusiasts. We have three massive Euro 2024 Cup matches lined up:

• Italy: The defending champions kick off their campaign, looking to assert their dominance once again.

• Croatia vs. Spain: Luka Modric’s Croatian side takes on the impressive and growing Spanish team, known for their tiki-taka style of play.

• Switzerland vs. Hungary: Xhaka’s Swiss team aims for an early win against a surprising Hungary squad.

In addition to the Euro 2024 action, we have Game 4 in Edmonton, where the Panthers are poised to sweep with brooms in hand. This game is critical, and we have our eyes set on it for some strategic plays.

And let’s not forget the full slate of 15 MLB games today, offering a plethora of opportunities to apply our strategic insights and continue our winning streak.

Let’s get this money!

Euros 2024: Croatia vs Spain

Pick: Croatia +0.5 / Wager: 4%

Overview:

Spain and Croatia face off again after their last encounter in the round of 16 of the previous Euros, where Spain emerged victorious. Both teams bring unique strengths to this match, with Spain’s dominance in possession and Croatia’s defensive solidity.

Spain’s Dominance:

Spain comes into the Euros with an impressive record from the qualifiers, winning seven of their eight matches. They boast one of the most talented squads in Europe, making them one of the favorites for the tournament. Luis de la Fuente, who has been managing Spain’s youth teams for over a decade, now leads the national team. Spain’s style under him continues to emphasize possession, a hallmark of their play under previous manager Luis Enrique.

Spain is the most possession-dominant team in the tournament, never holding less than 67% possession in their qualifying matches. This style allows them to control the game but can also be a double-edged sword. While Spain is adept at controlling the ball, they often struggle against well-organized defensive blocks. Their qualifying match against Scotland highlighted this issue, where despite their dominance in possession, they managed only 1.37 xG and nine shots. Spain’s reliance on crosses from wide areas is another concern, as they rank 17th in cross completion rate among Euro teams.

Croatia’s Resilience:

Croatia has been a formidable opponent in recent international tournaments, reaching the final of the 2018 World Cup, taking Spain to extra time in the last Euros, and making it to the semifinals of the 2022 World Cup. Despite an aging core, Croatia’s experienced squad remains difficult to break down.

Defensively, Croatia is among the best in the tournament, allowing only 0.58 xG per 90 minutes in qualifying. Their midfield trio of Brozovic, Kovacic, and Modric employs a zonal marking system, while the defense uses man-to-man marking, making it difficult for opponents to find openings. Croatia's success comes from their organization and ability to stay compact, preventing opponents from creating overloads and breaking through centrally.

Match Dynamics:

Spain’s game plan revolves around possession and quick ball recovery through counter-pressing. They led Euro qualifying in PPDA (passes per defensive action) and were second in high recoveries, showcasing their ability to win the ball back quickly. However, this aggressive approach can leave them vulnerable to counterattacks, a weakness that Croatia could exploit if they were more effective in transition. Unfortunately for Spain, Croatia prefers a slower build-up and is not particularly quick in transition, limiting the opportunities to catch Spain off guard.

Croatia's ability to stifle Spain’s central attacks will be crucial. Spain’s struggle against solid defensive blocks could play into Croatia’s hands, especially considering their midfield’s ability to maintain shape and discipline. While Croatia’s offensive production was inflated by matches against weaker opponents in qualifying, they still possess the experience and tactical nous to trouble Spain.

This match promises to be a tactical battle, with Spain’s possession-based approach clashing with Croatia’s disciplined defensive setup. While Spain is favored, Croatia’s resilience and defensive organization make them a tough opponent. Given the factors at play, backing Croatia to avoid defeat with a +0.5 handicap offers value. The experience and tactical acumen of Croatia’s core players could frustrate Spain and result in a closely contested match.

Final Pick:

• Croatia +0.5 / Wager: 4%

Expect a disciplined Croatian side to make life difficult for Spain and potentially come away with a positive result in this tightly contested fixture.

Euros 2024: Italy vs Albania

Pick: Italy win to nil / Wager: 4%

Italy, the defending Euro champions, face Albania in Group B as they begin their title defense. Despite failing to qualify for the last two World Cups, Italy remains a formidable force under the guidance of Luciano Spalletti, the former Napoli manager. Albania, having impressively topped their qualifying group, are entering only their second European Championship and are considered one of the tournament's long shots.

Italy’s Tactical Approach:

Italy has shown improvement under Spalletti, adopting a system that emphasizes attacking through wide areas and creating chances via crosses. Spalletti’s Italy employs fullbacks who push high and invert in the final third, forming wide passing triangles to generate scoring opportunities. This approach has been effective, yielding 12.16 expected goals in six matches under Spalletti. However, many of these chances have come when Italy is in a favorable game state.

A key consideration for Italy is their choice of striker. Spalletti has favored Giacomo Raspadori from his Napoli days, starting him in several qualifying matches. However, Gianluca Scamacca, currently one of the hottest strikers in Europe with Atalanta, could be a more suitable option given his proficiency in a system reliant on wide attacks and crosses. Scamacca's form and familiarity with such a style could provide Italy with a potent offensive edge.

Defensively, Italy has been solid, deploying a 5-3-2 block that has proved difficult to break down. Under Spalletti, Italy allowed only 4.7 expected goals in six matches, boasting the fifth-highest duel win rate and the fifth-fewest progressive passes conceded. This robust defensive setup will be crucial against an Albanian side that struggles to create high-quality chances.

Albania’s Defensive Setup:

Albania, managed by Sylvinho, will likely adopt a defensive and passive approach, focusing on man-marking and applying pressure in the final third to win the ball and create transition opportunities. Their shape tends to be narrow, making it challenging for opponents to penetrate through the middle. Albania's defensive solidity is reflected in their qualifying campaign, where they conceded only four goals and 0.98 expected goals per 90 minutes.

Offensively, Albania relies heavily on counterattacks and shots from outside the box. They registered the fifth-most counterattack shots in the Euro field, but their method of creating chances is not sustainable. Of the 12 goals Albania scored during qualifying, seven were low-quality chances from distance, predominantly from Jasir Asani. Although they missed their best striker, Armando Broja, during qualifying, he will likely find himself isolated against Italy's strong defense.

Match Dynamics:

This match is expected to be slow-paced, with Italy controlling possession and Albania sitting back in a compact defensive block. Italy’s challenge will be breaking down Albania’s well-organized defense. Despite Italy's potential struggles to create high-quality chances against Albania's setup, their superior talent and tactical discipline should eventually prevail.

Italy's defensive resilience and ability to control possession, coupled with Albania's lack of offensive firepower, make a "win to nil" scenario for Italy a plausible outcome. While Albania will aim to frustrate Italy with their compact defensive structure, Italy’s tactical acumen and superior quality should see them secure a victory without conceding.

Final Pick:

• Italy win to nil / Wager: 4%

Expect Italy to dominate possession and eventually break through Albania's defense while maintaining their defensive solidity to secure a clean sheet victory.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals (Game 4): Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers

Pick: Oilers -1.5 @ +215 / Wager: 6%

As the Stanley Cup Finals progress, the Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a do-or-die situation against the Florida Panthers. Following the example set by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, the Oilers aim to stave off elimination and extend the series with a victory tonight. Although Edmonton has struggled against Florida this season, failing to secure a win in five meetings, there is a glimmer of hope from their spirited third-period fightback in Game 3.

Edmonton Oilers’ Offensive Potential:

Despite being on the brink of elimination, the Oilers' dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been creating quality scoring opportunities throughout the series. Their relentless offensive pressure finally began to show results in Game 3, where they managed to put Sergei Bobrovsky under significant duress. McDavid and Draisaitl's ability to generate high-danger chances suggests that a breakthrough is imminent, provided they can maintain their intensity and precision.

Panthers’ Defensive Prowess:

Florida’s defense, anchored by Bobrovsky, has been formidable. Bobrovsky’s performances have been a major factor in the Panthers' dominance in the Finals. However, the sustained offensive pressure from the Oilers in Game 3 exposed some vulnerabilities. Edmonton’s strategy must focus on replicating and amplifying this pressure to crack Bobrovsky’s armor and capitalize on their scoring opportunities.

Oilers’ Need for Defensive Discipline:

For Edmonton to succeed, they must pair their offensive firepower with a disciplined defensive performance. Limiting Florida's counterattacks and managing puck possession will be crucial. The Oilers’ blue line, led by Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie, must stay sharp and support goaltender Stuart Skinner, who will need to deliver a solid performance to give Edmonton a chance.

Psychological Edge:

Facing a 0-3 deficit, the Oilers must harness a sense of urgency and channel it into a focused, high-energy performance. Historically, teams in such positions have rarely rallied, with only four comebacks from a 0-3 deficit in NHL history. However, all Edmonton needs tonight is one win to keep their hopes alive. The fightback in Game 3 demonstrated their resilience and potential to turn the tide.

Game Dynamics:

Expect Edmonton to come out with an aggressive forecheck, aiming to disrupt Florida's breakout plays and create turnovers in the offensive zone. Special teams will also play a pivotal role; the Oilers must capitalize on power-play opportunities while maintaining discipline to avoid giving the Panthers any advantage.

While the odds are stacked against them, the Oilers have shown they can generate quality scoring chances and apply sustained pressure. A disciplined, high-energy performance from Edmonton, coupled with a breakthrough in their finishing, could see them secure a much-needed victory.

Final Pick:

• Oilers -1.5 @ +215 / Wager: 6%

Bet on the Oilers to win by at least two goals, banking on their offensive talent finally converting opportunities and a disciplined defensive effort to stave off elimination.

NHL Stanley Cup Finals (Game 4): Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers

Pick: Oilers -1.5 @ +215 / Wager: 6%

Overview:

As the Stanley Cup Finals progress, the Edmonton Oilers find themselves in a do-or-die situation against the Florida Panthers. Following the example set by the Dallas Mavericks in the NBA Finals, the Oilers aim to stave off elimination and extend the series with a victory tonight. Although Edmonton has struggled against Florida this season, failing to secure a win in five meetings, there is a glimmer of hope from their spirited third-period fightback in Game 3.

Edmonton Oilers’ Offensive Potential:

Despite being on the brink of elimination, the Oilers' dynamic duo of Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl have been creating quality scoring opportunities throughout the series. Their relentless offensive pressure finally began to show results in Game 3, where they managed to put Sergei Bobrovsky under significant duress. McDavid and Draisaitl's ability to generate high-danger chances suggests that a breakthrough is imminent, provided they can maintain their intensity and precision.

Panthers’ Defensive Prowess:

Florida’s defense, anchored by Bobrovsky, has been formidable. Bobrovsky’s performances have been a major factor in the Panthers' dominance in the Finals. However, the sustained offensive pressure from the Oilers in Game 3 exposed some vulnerabilities. Edmonton’s strategy must focus on replicating and amplifying this pressure to crack Bobrovsky’s armor and capitalize on their scoring opportunities.

Oilers’ Need for Defensive Discipline:

For Edmonton to succeed, they must pair their offensive firepower with a disciplined defensive performance. Limiting Florida's counterattacks and managing puck possession will be crucial. The Oilers’ blue line, led by Darnell Nurse and Tyson Barrie, must stay sharp and support goaltender Stuart Skinner, who will need to deliver a solid performance to give Edmonton a chance.

Psychological Edge:

Facing a 0-3 deficit, the Oilers must harness a sense of urgency and channel it into a focused, high-energy performance. Historically, teams in such positions have rarely rallied, with only four comebacks from a 0-3 deficit in NHL history. However, all Edmonton needs tonight is one win to keep their hopes alive. The fightback in Game 3 demonstrated their resilience and potential to turn the tide.

Game Dynamics:

Expect Edmonton to come out with an aggressive forecheck, aiming to disrupt Florida's breakout plays and create turnovers in the offensive zone. Special teams will also play a pivotal role; the Oilers must capitalize on power-play opportunities while maintaining discipline to avoid giving the Panthers any advantage.

Conclusion:

While the odds are stacked against them, the Oilers have shown they can generate quality scoring chances and apply sustained pressure. A disciplined, high-energy performance from Edmonton, coupled with a breakthrough in their finishing, could see them secure a much-needed victory.

Final Pick:

• Oilers -1.5 @ +215 / Wager: 6%

Bet on the Oilers to win by at least two goals, banking on their offensive talent finally converting opportunities and a disciplined defensive effort to stave off elimination.

MLB: Oakland Athletics at Minnesota Twins

Pick: Under 8 @ +100 / Wager: 5%

Overview:

The Oakland Athletics face the Minnesota Twins in a matchup that sees both teams struggling offensively. With the A’s in the midst of a seven-game losing streak and the Twins looking to stabilize their pitching, this game presents a solid opportunity to bet on the under.

Oakland Athletics’ Offensive Struggles:

The Athletics are currently in a death spiral, having lost seven straight games. This slump is largely attributed to their sputtering offense, which has managed to score only 23 runs across their last ten games. Even when they managed to get a grand slam from Shea Langeliers in the first inning of Friday's game, they could only muster one more run, eventually losing in ten innings. This ongoing offensive malaise significantly impacts their ability to put up runs consistently.

Minnesota Twins’ Pitching:

Minnesota's starter Bailey Ober could use a break, and the struggling A's offense might just provide it. Ober has had some slumping performances recently, but facing an anemic Oakland lineup could help him get back on track. Ober has shown he can be effective, and this matchup presents an ideal scenario for him to regain his form.

Athletics’ Decent Pitching:

Despite their struggles, pitching hasn't been the major issue for the A's. Joey Estes, their scheduled starter, has posted respectable numbers with a 3.13 ERA over his last four starts, bouncing back well after a rough outing on May 15th against Houston. This shows that Estes is capable of limiting the damage, especially against a Minnesota lineup that hasn't been consistently explosive.

Game Dynamics:

Given the Athletics' offensive struggles and the potential for a strong performance from Bailey Ober, the game is likely to be low-scoring. Oakland’s recent trend of low-scoring games, combined with Estes’ decent form, points towards a game where runs could be at a premium. Both teams’ current form and tendencies lean heavily towards a low total.

With both teams struggling offensively and showing tendencies towards lower-scoring games, betting on the under seems a prudent choice. Bailey Ober has an excellent chance to rebound against a weak Oakland lineup, while Joey Estes has shown he can limit opposing offenses. The A’s offensive woes and the Twins' need for pitching stability further bolster the case for a low-scoring affair.

Final Pick:

• Under 8 @ +100 / Wager: 5%

Expect a low-scoring game as both teams' current form and pitching matchups favor a total below the line. This matchup's dynamics strongly support betting on the under.

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros

Pick: Astros ML / Wager: 5%

The Houston Astros host the Detroit Tigers in a matchup that favors the Astros in multiple aspects. The Astros' ace, Justin Verlander, is on the mound, facing a struggling Tigers lineup. This game presents a solid opportunity to back the Astros, especially with the uncertainty surrounding Tigers' starter Jack Flaherty.

Jack Flaherty’s Struggles:

Jack Flaherty is known to be a creature of habit, and being bumped back or having extended rest periods tends to disrupt his rhythm. Flaherty has had to be shut down briefly several times last year and did not respond well to the changes. Going on 10-days rest this time, there are concerns about his sharpness and consistency. Given his track record, it is likely that he might not be as effective, especially against a potent Astros lineup.

Justin Verlander’s Form:

Justin Verlander, on the other hand, is in good form and has been a model of consistency. Facing a limited Tigers lineup that lacks power, Verlander is expected to dominate. He thrives in matchups against his former team and enjoys pitching against them, making it an even more favorable scenario for Houston. Verlander's experience and current form give the Astros a significant edge on the mound.

Tigers’ Offensive Limitations:

The Detroit Tigers’ lineup has been underwhelming, particularly in terms of power hitting. They lack the ability to score quickly and have not been able to put up big numbers consistently. This plays right into the hands of Verlander, who can exploit their weaknesses and limit their scoring opportunities. The Tigers also do not have strong splits against Verlander, further diminishing their chances of generating offense.

Astros’ Advantage:

Houston's lineup is capable of capitalizing on Flaherty’s potential struggles. The Astros have been playing well and have a balanced attack that can put pressure on opposing pitchers. With Verlander on the mound and the Astros' lineup ready to exploit any mistakes from Flaherty, Houston is well-positioned to secure a win.

The combination of Verlander's strong form, Flaherty's potential issues with extended rest, and the Tigers' offensive limitations make this a favorable spot to back the Astros. Houston’s lineup is expected to take advantage of any mistakes, and Verlander should be able to shut down the Tigers' offense effectively.

Final Pick:

• Astros ML / Wager: 5%

With all the indicators pointing towards a Houston victory, betting on the Astros to win straight up is a solid choice. Verlander’s form and the Tigers’ struggles make this a promising bet.

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers

Pick: Reds ML @ +115 / Wager: 5%

Overview:

The Cincinnati Reds are making a strong push in the National League wild card race, winning 14 of their last 19 games. This hot streak has them back in the playoff picture and aiming to continue their success against the Milwaukee Brewers. With a promising pitcher on the mound in Andrew Abbott, and considering the Brewers’ recent struggles, this game presents a favorable opportunity to back the Reds.

Cincinnati Reds' Momentum:

The Reds have found their rhythm, winning 14 of their last 19 games. This impressive run has not only boosted their confidence but also brought them back to the .500 mark, making them a serious contender in the wild card race. Their recent form has been excellent, showcasing both strong hitting and effective pitching.

Andrew Abbott’s Performance:

Andrew Abbott has been a reliable starter for the Reds, especially since the beginning of May. Excluding one rough outing against the Cardinals, Abbott has maintained a stellar 2.31 ERA. His ability to keep opponents in check has been a significant factor in the Reds' recent success. Abbott's form and consistency provide the Reds with a solid chance to win this game.

Brewers’ Recent Struggles:

The Milwaukee Brewers have been less convincing lately, going 4-6 in their last ten games. Their inconsistency has been a concern, and their pitching staff has shown vulnerabilities. Bryse Wilson, who is set to start for the Brewers, has struggled in his recent outings, posting a 9.00 ERA in his last two appearances. This indicates a potential weakness that the Reds’ lineup can exploit.

Head-to-Head Matchup:

The Reds started this weekend series on a positive note with a win and aim to continue their momentum. Their ability to perform well against the Brewers, combined with Milwaukee's recent form, makes Cincinnati a compelling pick for this game.

The combination of the Reds’ strong form, Abbott’s reliable pitching, and the Brewers' recent struggles creates a favorable scenario for Cincinnati. Betting on the Reds to win straight up provides good value, especially at +115 odds.

Final Pick:

• Reds ML @ +115 / Wager: 5%

With the Reds riding high on their recent success and Abbott's solid performance on the mound, backing Cincinnati to secure another win against the Brewers is a strategic and value-laden choice.

MLB: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

Pick: Yankees -1.5 / Wager: 8%

The New York Yankees are in exceptional form, particularly on the road, and continue to offer great value for bettors. As they face off against the Boston Red Sox, the Yankees' recent performance and favorable matchups make them a strong pick to cover the run line.

Yankees' Dominance on the Road:

The Yankees have been a powerhouse on the road, winning by 2 or more runs in 14 of their last 18 away games. Their ability to perform consistently away from home is a significant factor in favoring them in this matchup. The team's offensive and defensive synergy is evident, making them a formidable opponent in any ballpark.

Boston Red Sox Home Struggles:

The Red Sox have struggled significantly at home, going 11-25 ATS at Fenway Park. This poor performance in front of their home crowd contrasts sharply with the Yankees' road success. The disparity in home and away form between these two teams further tilts the balance in favor of New York.

Carlos Rodon's Impact:

Carlos Rodon has been a key contributor to the Yankees' success, particularly in his last nine starts where the team has gone 8-1, with all eight wins by 2 or more runs. Rodon's dominance on the mound has been a game-changer, and his current form suggests he will continue to be a strong asset for the Yankees in this game.

Red Sox Pitching Woes:

On the other hand, Boston’s starter Cooper Criswell has not shown the consistency needed to challenge the Yankees' potent lineup. His difficulty in lasting beyond five innings in most starts puts additional pressure on an already struggling bullpen, giving the Yankees an edge both early and late in the game.

Yankees’ Offensive Firepower:

The Yankees' lineup is one of the most dangerous in MLB, capable of putting up big numbers against any pitcher. Their recent performance, highlighted by their offensive explosion in the Fenway series opener, underscores their ability to dominate games and cover the run line effectively.

Given the Yankees’ stellar road performance, Rodon’s exceptional recent starts, and the Red Sox’s struggles at home, backing New York on the run line presents a high-value betting opportunity. The odds remain attractive, making this a must-recommend bet.

Final Pick:

• Yankees -1.5 / Wager: 8%

With the Yankees' current form and the Red Sox's home difficulties, the bet on New York to cover the run line is well-supported by recent trends and performance metrics. Expect the Yankees to continue their dominance and secure a convincing win at Fenway Park.

MLB: Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners

Pick: Rangers ML @ +110 / Wager: 5%

Overview:

The Texas Rangers face off against the Seattle Mariners in a matchup that pits two strong starting pitchers against each other. However, with the Rangers having a potential edge in offensive firepower and Nathan Eovaldi on the mound, the value lies with Texas to secure a win.

Mariners' Offensive Struggles:

Seattle has had a tough time generating consistent offense, a trend that has persisted throughout the season. Their struggles at the plate are especially pronounced against strong pitchers, which is a significant concern going up against Eovaldi. The Mariners' lineup, including key hitters like Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Haniger, Cal Raleigh, and JP Crawford, has not found much success against Eovaldi historically.

Nathan Eovaldi’s Dominance:

Nathan Eovaldi has been in excellent form recently, dominating opponents and giving his team a chance to win every time he takes the mound. Eovaldi has been particularly effective against the Mariners’ key batters, and his ability to control the game and limit Seattle’s scoring opportunities makes him a significant asset in this matchup. The Rangers have won four of his last five starts, often in convincing fashion, showcasing his impact on the team’s success.

Rangers’ Offensive Potential:

While the Rangers have been middling overall, they possess more potential for offensive outbursts compared to the Mariners. Texas has the thump in their lineup to capitalize on opportunities and put runs on the board. Even in a battle between two excellent starting pitchers, the Rangers' ability to generate offense gives them a slight edge.

Seattle’s Starting Pitcher:

On the other side, Seattle's starter is also formidable, making this a contest likely to be decided by small margins. However, the Mariners' inability to consistently support their pitchers with run production puts them at a disadvantage. The Rangers' hitters have a better chance of breaking through and providing the necessary run support to secure a victory.

The combination of Nathan Eovaldi’s current form, his historical success against Seattle’s lineup, and the Rangers' greater offensive potential makes Texas a smart bet in this matchup. With the Mariners struggling to score and Eovaldi controlling the game from the mound, the value lies with the Rangers to come out on top.

Final Pick:

• Rangers ML @ +110 / Wager: 5%

Given the current dynamics and form, backing the Texas Rangers to win on the money line presents a solid value bet. Eovaldi’s dominance and the Rangers' ability to provide run support should be enough to secure a win against the Mariners.