Santa’s Sportsbook: Unwrapping Christmas Day’s Best NFL and NBA Bets

Greetings, bettors! Welcome to Santa’s Sportsbook, a BrownBagBets exclusive, where we combine the joy of the season with the precision of top-tier sports betting insights. As your trusted consultant, we’re here to guide you through Christmas Day’s NFL and NBA lineup with expert picks and strategies honed by our innovative bankroll management system. If you’re new here, be sure to check out our Manifesto which will get you caught up in no time! Whether you’re here for reliable guidance or the nuanced angles that give seasoned bettors their edge, our breakdown of today’s games—from the strategic plays in Kansas City to the high-stakes battles in the NBA—is tailored to elevate your betting game. So, grab your brown bag, and let’s unwrap the potential of each matchup with the acumen and foresight of seasoned handicappers.

NFL Plays

Las Vegas Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: over 40.5 / Wager: 5%

The focus is on the Las Vegas Raiders’ visit to the Kansas City Chiefs, with an intriguing over 40.5 on the table. Despite some narrative around the Chiefs’ offense facing challenges, they’ve managed to exceed the total in three of their last four outings. Particularly against the Raiders in Week 12, Kansas City demonstrated their scoring potential with Mahomes leading the charge, renowned for his impressive performances against Las Vegas.

The Chiefs’ offensive anticipation is bolstered by the strategic utilization of receivers like Rashee Rice and the expected comeback of Travis Kelce, exploiting the Raiders’ defensive shortcomings, especially against tight ends. The shift in the Chiefs’ defensive efficiency, from stellar to struggling, particularly against the run, offers the Raiders, with Josh Jacobs at the ready, a chance to contribute significantly to a high-scoring game.

Both teams present the right mix of offensive capability and defensive gaps to suggest a total surpassing 40.5.

Pick: Travis Kelce over 67.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Amidst a bad weather game, betting on Travis Kelce’s over 66.5 receiving yards is a smart play. Despite fewer explosive plays recently, Kelce consistently meets yardage targets, especially against Las Vegas, with a solid track record at Arrowhead Stadium. The Raiders’ weaker outdoor defense and the game’s high-profile nature set the stage for Kelce to shine. Considering the favorable conditions and his previous performance, this prop bet stands out as a valuable opportunity.

NY Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: AJ Brown anytime TD @ +125 / Wager: 2%

Pick: AJ Brown over 74.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Boston Scott anytime TD @ +350 / Wager: 1%

Pick: Darren Waller over 3.5 Receptions / Wager: 2%

Baltimore Ravens @ San Francisco 49ers

Pick: 49ers -5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: 49ers over 27 points / Wager: 4%

Pick: Christian McCaffery over 84.5 Rushing yards / Wager: 4%

Pick: Gus Edwards over 41.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 4%

The 49ers’ current form is a class apart, especially when considering the Ravens’ struggles on both ends. The rotating offensive line against a formidable San Francisco defense spells trouble for Baltimore, especially on the road. The Ravens’ defensive weaknesses, particularly against the run and recent dip in sack rate, align poorly against a healthier and more dynamic 49ers squad. The trends and matchup specifics, particularly the 49ers’ impressive streak and the Ravens’ defensive lapses, point to San Francisco covering the spread.

San Francisco’s offensive consistency, especially at home with LT Trent Williams, makes the over 26.5 points an attractive bet. The Ravens’ defense, while statistically strong, has shown vulnerabilities that the 49ers are well-equipped to exploit, especially with their effective use of RBs in the passing game. The Niners’ scoring record at home and the Ravens’ recent defensive performances suggest a high-scoring output from San Francisco.

McCaffery’s performance since the 49ers’ bye week has been stellar, consistently exceeding this yardage total. The Ravens’ defense, particularly weak against pitch plays and the run, is likely to struggle against McCaffrey’s rushing prowess. His success on pitch plays and the Ravens’ inability to defend such strategies reinforce the likelihood of him surpassing 84.5 rushing yards in this matchup.

Gus Edwards steps into the spotlight with 16 carries last week after Mitchell’s unfortunate exit. Despite a shifting game script, Edwards is well-positioned to surpass 41.5 rushing yards against a 49ers’ defense grappling with injuries. With Armstead out and Hargrave’s status in the air, the 49ers’ recent falter against Arizona’s ground game — yielding 234 yards — exposes vulnerabilities. The drop to 20th in yards-per-attempt allowed presents a ripe opportunity for Edwards to exploit and exceed the set yardage.

NBA Plays

It’s Christmas Day. We aren’t going to be giving you the details below for these NBA games. We always do, but it’s a holiday and the writing team is getting the day off. So we got them to do the NFL ones above, but we decided to let them be with their families today. Merry Christmas and Happy holidays. We will be back in full effect tomorrow. The picks are below, just no details.

Milwaukee Bucks @ NY Knicks

Pick: Bucks -3 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Jalen Brunson over 26.5 points / Wager: 2%

Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets

Pick: Nuggets -4.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Aaron Gordon over 14.5 Points / Wager: 2%

Pick: Jamaal Murray over 33.5 Points+ Rebs + Assists / Wager: 2%

Boston Celtics @ LA Lakers

Pick: Under 234.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Derrick White over 15.5 Points / Wager: 2%

Pick: Anthony Davis under 12.5 Rebounds / Wager: 2%

Philadelphia Seventy-Sixers @ Miami Heat

Pick: Tyrese Maxey over 6.5 Assists / Wager: 3%

Dallas Mavericks @ Phoenix Suns

Pick: Over 241.5 / Wager: 4%