Unwrap the Wins: Boxing Day Specials from BrownBagBets Across EPL, NCAAF, and NBA

Welcome back to BrownBagBets for a special Boxing Day edition, where the thrill of the holiday sports continues! Today, we’re diving into an exciting mix of English Premier League soccer, three nail-biting NCAAF bowl games, including the Quick Lane Bowl in Michigan and the much-anticipated Guaranteed Rate Bowl between Kansas and UNLV, plus a selection of NBA showdowns. Our expert insights and strategic picks are here to guide you through this packed day of action. Whether you’re a football fanatic or a basketball buff, we’ve got the angles, stats, and strategies to give you the edge. So, grab your post-Christmas coffee, and let’s get into the heart of today’s sporting feast!

Boxing Day: EPL Plays

Nottingham Forrest @ New Castle

Pick: New Castle Win to Nil @ +125 / Wager: 2%

Pick: New Castle -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 2%

As Newcastle squares off against Nottingham Forest to kickstart the Premier League’s traditional Boxing Day slate, the stage is set at St. James Park, a fortress of home-field advantage where Newcastle has not just played but dominated. Despite a recent upset at Luton Town, the underlying stats suggest a stronger performance, hinting at their true competitive edge.

Newcastle’s identity is forged in an aggressive, high-press style, making life tough for bottom-half table teams forced into their frenetic pace. Their record against lower-tier competition is impressive, boasting a +32 expected goal differential in 30 matches since the 2022-23 season began. With a healthier attack and key players like Alexander Isak and potentially Joelinton returning, Newcastle’s offensive might looks poised for a significant impact.

Nottingham Forest’s recent tactics under Espírito Santo, shifting to a 4-2-3-1 formation, haven’t quite solidified their position, especially with a struggling transitional play this season. Their defensive woes, evidenced by a concerning number of expected goals conceded, suggest a vulnerability Newcastle is well-equipped to exploit.

In this matchup, Newcastle’s home strength and strategic press play, coupled with Nottingham Forest’s form and tactical consistency issues, paint a clear picture. The spread at St. James Park seems undervalued, making Newcastle an attractive bet to cover and continue their dominance at home.

Luton Town @ Sheffield United

Pick: over 2.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

This is an interesting pick for us. We have no real explanation for this one that we can find via readily available information. If you look at the history of these two teams playing each other, you’d surely take the under. There’s no reason to take the over. With that being said, let’s take a run at the converse. Both teams are coming into the match with positive results from their recent games. Sheffield United’s near-win against Aston Villa and Luton Town’s victory over Newcastle may boost their confidence and offensive aggression. This newfound momentum could lead to a more attacking approach from both sides, potentially resulting in more goals. Historical Outliers is we explained, historically, matches between these two have seen fewer than 2.5 goals, football is unpredictable, and patterns can change, especially with new players or management. Any recent changes in team dynamics, key players returning from injury, or a shift in strategy could disrupt the usual low-scoring trend and lead to an unexpectedly high-scoring match. All these things that may or may not happen, take the over. Trust our EPL guy!

Fulham @ Bournmouth

Pick: over 2.5 goals / 2% Wager

Both teams have demonstrated the ability to score and concede goals. Bournemouth’s recent high-scoring game against Nottingham Forest and Fulham’s ability to score in bunches, as seen in their matches against Nottingham Forest and West Ham, suggest potential for a high-scoring affair. Additionally, with both teams positioned mid-table and looking to climb, a more open game could ensue, leading to more scoring opportunities .

Pick: Bournmouth ML @ +100/. Wager: 2%

The team of writers had to settle this one. Since we couldn’t seem to get consensus on who wins here or if it was a draw, the writers get the final say here. We like Bournmouth to win as opposed to a draw. It be safe to say this is a lean towards Bournemouth ML. Bournemouth has been in solid form recently, winning five of their last six matches and showcasing a strong attacking style under Andoni Iraola. This momentum, coupled with their performance against teams like Manchester United and Newcastle, suggests they have the edge and confidence to secure a win rather than settling for a draw .

Liverpool @ Burnley

Pick: over 2.5 Goals / Wager: 2%

Pick: Mohamed Salah to score / Wager: 2%

The prediction for the game to have over 2.5 goals is based on a few factors:

Liverpool’s Attacking Prowess: Liverpool is known for its strong offensive play, particularly away from home against Burnley, where they have an impressive win record. Their attacking lineup, including players like Mohamed Salah and Darwin Nunez, is capable of scoring multiple goals, which has been evident in their performances throughout the season .

Recent Form and Historical Context: Historically, Liverpool has dominated this fixture, winning a significant number of their matches against Burnley, including seven out of eight away matches in the Premier League. This trend suggests Liverpool’s ability to score and win, particularly in away games against Burnley, contributing to the potential for a high-scoring match .

Burnley’s Performance: While Burnley has had some struggles, they have improved in recent weeks. As they face a formidable opponent, they may find opportunities to counter-attack, especially if Liverpool commits numbers forward. This dynamic could lead to goals from both sides, pushing the total above.

Season Performance: Salah has consistently been one of Liverpool’s top scorers and key players. Throughout this season, he’s continued to find the back of the net regularly. His ability to score in various situations—whether from open play, set-pieces, or penalties—makes him a constant threat.

Match Context: Given Liverpool’s historical dominance over Burnley and their strong away record, the game context might provide Salah with more opportunities to score. If Liverpool controls the match and maintains an offensive push, Salah, as a primary attacking outlet, is likely to have multiple chances on goal.

Aston Villa @ Manchester United

Pick: Villa Draw No Bet @ +100 / Wager: 2%

The Manchester United vs Aston Villa match sees United struggling with a four-game scoreless streak and recent losses, while Villa is second in the Premier League, winning five of their last six. United’s poor form at home and Villa’s solid recent performance, avoiding defeat in three of their last four against United, suggests Villa might secure at least a point from this visit, 3 points also possible.

NCAAF Bowl Games

Quick Lane Bowl

Bowling Green State vs University of Minnesota

Pick: over 39.5 / Wager: 5%

Bowling Green’s offense, led by dynamic back Ta’Ron Keith and an improving Connor Bazelak, looks to exploit Minnesota’s vulnerable run defense. Despite losing key defensive players, the Falcons’ offense has shown marked improvement, especially in the latter half of the season. Minnesota, starting a third-string quarterback, will likely lean heavily on its run game, challenging Bowling Green’s struggling run defense. The previous upset by Bowling Green as a 30.5-point underdog adds an intriguing layer of motivation for Minnesota. With a projected total of 47.2 points, this matchup is set to be a strategic battle with both teams having points to prove.

First Responders Bowl

Texas State vs Rice

Guaranteed Rate Bowl

UNLV vs Kansas

Pick: Kansas -12.5 / Wager: 5%

Kansas is poised as a 12.5-point favorite against UNLV in the Guaranteed Rate Bowl, reflecting their robust season and offensive capabilities, even amidst coaching changes and player shifts. Despite UNLV’s commendable season, recent losses and the potential departure of key players like QB Jayden Maiava hint at vulnerabilities. Kansas’s depth and resilience, coupled with UNLV’s uncertainties, make the -12.5 line a calculated bet, banking on Kansas’s ability to capitalize on UNLV’s transitional phase and secure a decisive victory.

NBA Plays

Nets @ Pistons

Pick: Nets -6.5 / Wager: 4%

Pacers @ Rockets

Pick: Rockets ML / Wager: 4%

Pick: Fred VanVleet over 18.5 points / wager: 4%

Magic @ Wizards

Pick: Magic -7.5 / Wager: 4%

Jazz @ Spurs

Pick: Spurs ML / Wager: 3%

Grizzlies @ Pelicans

Pick: Jonas Valanciunas over 10.5 Rebounds / Wager: 4%

Pick: Ja Morant over 7.5 Assists / Wager: 4%

Hornets @ Clippers

Pick: Kawhi Leonard over 26.5 points / Wager: 4%