Deck the Halls with Bets: A Christmas Eve Special Featuring NCAA Dark Horses, A Premier League Showdown, & NFL Action

Welcome to a special Christmas Eve edition of BrownBagBets, where the holiday spirit meets the thrill of sports betting. Today, we’ve got a festive lineup that spans the globe and the gridiron. In the world of NCAA basketball, we’re eyeing four pivotal matchups and are ready to back an underdog that’s primed to upset. Over in the Premier League, the Wolves are set to challenge Chelsea in a match that’s stirring up excitement. But that’s not all - it’s Week 16 in the NFL, a unique week filled with nine different viewing windows, perfect for the holiday weekend.

As we approach the final three weeks of the NFL season, the stakes couldn’t be higher, with almost every game impacting playoff seedings or survival. Amidst the holiday cheer, teams are battling for their postseason lives, making every play and every game count. Excluding the clashes between teams with slim playoff hopes, every matchup is loaded with implications. So, as you settle in with your holiday treats and festive mood, join us for a day of strategic bets and high-stakes drama across NCAA basketball, the English Premier League, and the NFL. It’s Christmas Eve, and we’re unwrapping the gift of winning picks and insightful analysis.

EPL Plays

Wolves vs Chelsea

Pick: Wolves +0.5 / Wager: 3%

In match week 18 of the Premier League, Chelsea, positioned 10th, makes the journey to the West Midlands to confront a 13th-placed Wolves team. With a mere three points separating the two and Chelsea not quite living up to preseason hype, the stage is set for an intriguing battle at Molineux. Despite Christopher Nkunku’s recent debut and a win over Sheffield United, Chelsea’s inconsistent form, particularly in the first half of games, raises questions about their performance away from home.

On the other side, Wolves, potentially buoyed by the return of forward Pedro Neto, are poised to elevate their attack. Neto’s exceptional dribbling skills and significant contribution in xG + xA, even in limited playtime, inject a potent threat into Wolves’ offense. Manager Gary O’Neil has strategically honed Wolves, particularly in set pieces where they excel both defensively and offensively, potentially neutralizing one of Chelsea’s key strategies. With Wolves showing strength in transition and set plays, they are well-positioned as underdogs.

Despite Chelsea’s ability to force high turnovers and create dynamic attacks, their inconsistency and struggles against lower defensive blocks have been evident. With Wolves enhancing their health and strategy, and Chelsea’s odds not truly reflecting the tight nature of this clash, backing Wolves at +0.5 acknowledges their potential to disrupt and hold their own against a fluctuating Chelsea side, making this an intriguing match with the Wolves poised to possibly defy expectations.

NFL Plays

Commanders @ Jets

Pick: Commanders +3 / Wager: 2%

You don’t like Commanders +3? I’m not sure why we like it either actually. Not that we don’t like it, but our Tinder Sharp is sharing these and if we can cross it with the process, we take it, b/c we trust him and he didn’t work, we just don’t have a reason.

Colts @ Falcons

Pick: Colts +2.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Drake London over 55.5 Receiving / Wager: 2%

The Indianapolis Colts enter this matchup with an impressive 9-5-0 record against the spread this season, consistently defying the odds and surpassing betting expectations. Despite a more modest record of two wins in eight games as the underdog, the close +2.5 spread suggests a tight contest that aligns with the Colts’ trend of competitive performances. Furthermore, the Falcons, potentially hampered by injuries and a weaker 4-10-0 record against the spread, may find themselves vulnerable. This context sets the stage for the Colts, not just to cover the narrow spread but perhaps to clinch an outright victory, leveraging their knack for outperforming in closely contested games.

Packers @ Panthers

Pick: GB under 37.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Chuba Hubbard over 88.5 Rushing/ Receiving/ Wager: 2%

Pick: Chuba Hubbard over 16.5 Rushing Attempts / Wager: 2%

Green Bay and Carolina’s season averages for point totals surpass the over/under of 37.5 set for their upcoming game, hinting that the line might be lower than these teams’ typical scoring. However, scoring trends for both teams have shown variability, with instances of both surpassing and falling short of total points lines. This unpredictability, coupled with their respective offensive challenges, paints a picture of a potentially low-scoring affair. The Panthers, ranking 29th in points scored, and the Packers, who have not been a high-scoring team themselves, are likely to engage in a game where defensive prowess overshadows offensive attempts, making the under 37.5 a plausible outcome.

Seahawks @ Titans

Pick: Seahawks -3 / Wager: 5%

Pick: DJ Metcalf over 60.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 4%

The Seattle Seahawks enter their matchup with a notable advantage at the quarterback position, with Geno Smith expected to provide a stable and effective offensive front. In contrast, the Tennessee Titans face uncertainty in their quarterback role, potentially destabilizing their offense. Seattle’s defense, which has been prepping to capitalize against the Titans’ struggling offense, is anticipated to curb Tennessee’s ability to extend drives and score, particularly in the latter half of games. The Seahawks, fresh off a strong victory and witnessing a favorable shift in betting mid-week, are perceived as a confident pick by bettors. With the Titans recently faltering in hitting the Game Total Over, Seattle’s defense is well-positioned to exploit these offensive woes, making the Seahawks a strong candidate to cover the -2.5 spread.

Browns @ Texans

Pick: Browns -2 / Wager: 4%

Pick: David Njoku over 50.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 3%

The Cleveland Browns, despite some road game challenges, possess a defensive line capable of significantly stifling the Texans’ offense, especially with Houston’s quarterback uncertainties and key injuries at receiver and offensive line positions. This defensive advantage is pronounced early in games where the Browns shine, ranking fifth in defensive EPA and first in success rate during the first quarter. This early game strength, coupled with the Texans’ compromised offensive lineup, sets the stage for the Browns to potentially seize an early lead and maintain control throughout the game, making them a solid bet to cover the -2 spread.

Lions @ Vikings

Pick: Justin Jefferson over 6.5 receptions / Wager: 2%

Pick: Justine Jefferson over 81.5 Yards Receiving/ Wager: 3%

Cardinals @ Bears

Pick: Bears -4 / Wager: 4%

The Chicago Bears enter their matchup against the Arizona Cardinals with a slight edge in recent history, holding a 3-2 lead in their last five encounters. This season's 68.6% implied probability of winning and a strong 4-1-1 ATS record in their last six games underscore their potential to outperform. Chicago's robust rushing offense, ranked 5th in the NFL, is well-positioned to capitalize on the Cardinals' 31st-ranked run defense. Combined with their notable defensive strides, ranking third in EPA since Week 5, the Bears seem primed to exploit Arizona's vulnerabilities, particularly on the road where the Cardinals hold a dismal 1-6 record.

Expert predictions and subtle odds movements have solidified the Bears' position as favorites, with the line shifting from -3.5 to -4, reflecting growing confidence in their ability to cover the spread. While the Cardinals have shown sporadic offensive potential, their persistent issues, especially in pass defense and away games, further bolster the case for Chicago. Given the Bears' recent improvements and the Cardinals' consistent struggles, Chicago's favored status suggests a strong likelihood of them covering the spread, making them a compelling pick in this NFL showdown.

Jaguars @ Buccaneers

Pick: over 43 / Wager: 4%

Another one straight from the Tinder Sharp. This one checks out though, so we got more to share here. We think Trevor Lawrence coming back helps add points to this match. The Jags were on fire until stalling out last week against the Ravens. We also see Baker slinging it here. Take the over.

Patriots @ Broncos

Pick: Patriots +7.5 / Wager: 4%

The New England Patriots enter their game against the Denver Broncos with a formidable defensive front that leads the NFL in rush EPA and success rate, a vital asset considering the Broncos’ dependence on their running game. Despite facing some overall challenges this season, the Patriots have covered the spread in their last two outings and have showcased a particularly robust defense against the run, a strategic advantage they’ll likely lean into against Denver. Historically, the Patriots hold a favorable record over the Broncos, winning three of their last five encounters. This track record, combined with their knack for stepping up in crucial moments, positions them well to cover the spread once more.

Moreover, with cold weather expected to influence the game dynamics, leading to a heavier reliance on the ground game, the Patriots’ defensive prowess becomes even more critical. The conditions could play right into the hands of their defensive strategy, enhancing their chances of not just containing the Broncos but also securing a win against the spread. Given these factors, the Patriots’ standing at +7.5 looks increasingly promising, making them a strong candidate for bettors looking for a team that can capitalize on its defensive strengths and weather conditions.

Parlay Play

Packers @ Panthers

Cowboys @ Dolphins

Pick: Packers ML + Dolphins ML @ +163 / Wager: 3%

NCAAM Plays

Temple vs Portland

Pick: Portland ML @ +140 / Wager: 2%

This money line pick is drawn from a significant differential in bet percentages and the amount of money wagered, suggesting sharp bettors see value in Portland. With 75% of bets on Temple but an equal distribution of money, it indicates larger, possibly more strategic bets on Portland. This, alongside the potential for a higher payout due to the underdog odds, makes a money line bet on Portland an attractive, albeit riskier, proposition.

TCU vs Hawai’i

Pick: TCU -5.5 / Wager: 4%

For TCU to cover the -5.5 spread against Hawaii, the analysis considers the convergence of KenPom’s prediction of a 5-point TCU win and the substantial betting trends that show a heavy lean of the money towards TCU covering. The bet percentage is evenly split, but the money is not, indicating that those wagering larger sums are favoring TCU significantly. This suggests a confidence in TCU’s ability to outperform the spread, possibly due to their stronger overall performance or matchup advantages.

Nevada vs Georgia Tech

Pick: Georgia Tech +6.5 / Wager: 4%

The choice to back Georgia Tech with the points is informed by a striking differential in the betting data, with a whopping 96% of the money on Georgia Tech despite only 33% of the bets. This suggests that the sharps see value in Georgia Tech, perhaps due to matchup nuances or an undervaluation by the market. KenPom’s projection shows a win for Nevada, but the betting insights imply that Georgia Tech will perform better than the public expects, making them a valuable pick with the points.

Old Dominion vs University of Massachusetts

Pick: Under 154.5 / wager: 3%

The under bet for the ODU vs. UMass game aligns with the “Neutral Court Unders” betting system, which boasts a historically profitable record for under bets in neutral court settings. Although KenPom predicts a high-scoring affair, the significant support for UMass to cover a substantial spread suggests a belief in their defensive capability to control the game’s pace and keep the score down, justifying a moderate bet on the under.