Winning Weekend Momentum Carries Into MNF and Monday’s Betting Slate

What a day to be part of the BrownBagBets family! Yesterday, we demonstrated why disciplined volume betting paired with strategic bankroll management isn’t just a theory—it’s a winning formula. With 28 plays on the slate, we not only came out ahead but also stacked those all-important tier and reward credits with our preferred betting services. For those who followed along and stuck to the calculated wager amounts, you saw the power of staying the course.

December might have tested us early, but we’re far from out of this fight. With two winning days in a row over the weekend, the momentum is back in our corner, and there’s no better time to keep building.

Winning days like yesterday are the perfect reminder of the BrownBagBets difference. We aren’t chasing unicorn wins or betting blindly—we’re focused on long-term growth, passive income, and disciplined wagering that delivers consistent results. Even when the road gets bumpy, as it has at times this month, our approach always positions us for recovery and sustained success. This is a marathon, not a sprint, and every single day brings new opportunities to grow.

Let’s kick off this Monday with purpose and precision. It’s an exciting lineup featuring two Monday Night Football games:

• Bears vs. Vikings: A divisional matchup that promises defensive sparks and betting angles.

• Falcons vs. Raiders: Intrigue abounds in this game with plenty of prop and live-betting potential.

Beyond the NFL action, we’ve got:

• A light but intriguing NCAAB slate offering a few gems to evaluate.

• 3 NHL games—small in number but packed with value potential.

• Enough NBA matchups to keep us busy analyzing and betting strategically.

There’s no shortage of ways to build on yesterday’s momentum, and we’re ready to tackle the board with the same discipline and drive that got us here.

Final Thought:

Winning two days in a row is great—but we’re not stopping there. Every day is a chance to get closer to our long-term goals, and today’s no different. Whether you’re banking tier credits, growing your bankroll, or grinding through the plays, remember: it’s not about perfection, it’s about progress. Let’s make today count.

English Premier League: West Ham United at Bournemouth

Pick: Bournemouth ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Matchweek 16 wraps up with Bournemouth hosting West Ham United at Vitality Stadium. Bournemouth have been one of the league’s pleasant surprises, sitting in seventh place with 24 points. A win or draw here would elevate them into the top six—a remarkable achievement. Conversely, West Ham finds itself struggling in 14th place despite a morale-boosting 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton last week.

Bournemouth have turned their home ground into a fortress, boasting signature victories over Tottenham, Manchester City, and Arsenal in three of their last four home matches. Their dynamic attack was on full display during their 1-0 win over Spurs, where they fired off 21 shots, eight of which were on target. This efficiency contrasts sharply with a West Ham side that has faltered on the road, losing two of their last three away fixtures, including a 3-1 defeat to Leicester City. Defensively, West Ham has been leaky, conceding 28 goals and posting a concerning -8 goal differential.

Indicators:

• Home Dominance: Bournemouth have won three of their last four matches at home, defeating top-tier teams.

• West Ham’s Away Struggles: The Hammers have lost two of their last three away league games, showing inconsistency on the road.

• Defensive Issues: West Ham’s 28 goals conceded this season highlight a vulnerability Bournemouth can exploit.

• Attacking Output: Bournemouth’s ability to generate consistent scoring opportunities, as seen in their 21-shot performance against Spurs, makes them dangerous at Vitality Stadium.

Projection:

Bournemouth continues their stellar form at home with a well-earned 2-1 victory, keeping their push for a top-six finish alive.

NFL: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Sam Darnold over 1.5 TD Passes / Wager: 2%

Pick: Jordan Addison over 22.5 Longest Reception / Wager: 2%

Pick: D’Andre Swift under 15.5 Total Carries / Wager: 2%

Pick: TJ Hockenson over 42.5 Total Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

In six true home games this season, Sam Darnold has thrived, throwing 17 touchdown passes, with at least two TD throws in five of those six contests. The Bears rank dead last in yards per attempt allowed over the past six games, a clear sign that opposing QBs are exploiting their secondary. Kevin O’Connell’s offense encourages aggressive passing, which makes this a solid spot for Darnold to exceed 1.5 TD passes.

Jordan Addison continues to be a major downfield threat for Minnesota. He torched the Bears on November 24, catching eight passes for 162 yards, including a 69-yarder. Addison has cleared his longest reception prop in four consecutive games while commanding 30% of the Vikings’ targets and 42% of their air yards. The Bears’ secondary ranks 30th in explosive pass rate allowed, further supporting this pick.

D’Andre Swift has struggled with efficiency since the 20-19 home loss to Green Bay. Facing the NFL’s top run defense, and likely to play in a negative game script, Swift is unlikely to see enough carries to clear this number. He has stayed under this total in four consecutive games and is a strong candidate to do so again tonight.

Finally, T.J. Hockenson looks poised for another productive outing against a Bears defense that gives up the sixth-most receiving yards to tight ends (62.6 per game). Hockenson had his best game of the season against Chicago, racking up 114 yards on seven receptions. Chicago has surrendered 290 receiving yards and two touchdowns to tight ends over their past three games, making Hockenson a prime target for Darnold on Monday Night Football.

Projection:

Minnesota 27, Chicago 17. Sam Darnold surpasses two TD passes, Addison hits a long reception, and Hockenson has another standout game against the Bears. Swift continues to see a decline in usage, falling well short of his carry total.

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at Las Vegas Raiders

Pick: Raiders +5.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Michael Mayer over 20.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%
Pick: Bijan Robinson over 18.5 Total Carries / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Falcons have hit rock bottom over the past month, with Kirk Cousins throwing zero touchdowns and eight interceptions during their ongoing four-game skid. Atlanta’s offense is struggling to get out of its own way, averaging fewer than 15 points per game in that span. Now Cousins and company face a Raiders team that, while inconsistent, can make life miserable for quarterbacks. The Raiders’ defense has been solid at home, pressuring QBs into mistakes—something Cousins has been prone to under duress.

Bijan Robinson becomes the focal point for the Falcons to protect Cousins from costly turnovers. Robinson has seen 19+ carries in four of his past five games, the lone exception coming in a blowout loss at Denver. In matchups projected as neutral or positive game scripts—like this one—Atlanta has leaned heavily on their run game, rushing 46.8% of the time on the road this season. Look for Arthur Smith to simplify things by feeding his best offensive weapon early and often.

For Las Vegas, Michael Mayer is becoming a key part of the offense, especially in 12 personnel sets that the Raiders ran on two-thirds of their plays last week. Mayer delivered his best performance of the season, logging seven catches for 68 yards, and his role should only expand as the Raiders settle into their new two-tight-end approach alongside rookie star Brock Bowers. With Mayer running a season-high number of routes last week and Atlanta’s defense vulnerable to tight ends, Mayer should comfortably clear 20.5 receiving yards.

Indicators:

• Defensive Pressure Advantage: The Raiders’ pass rush is well-equipped to rattle Cousins, who has struggled with turnovers under pressure.

• Game Script for Bijan: Neutral or positive game scripts favor Atlanta’s run-heavy approach, maximizing Bijan’s workload.

• Increased Role for Mayer: The Raiders' reliance on 12 personnel and Mayer’s snap count/route increase highlight his emerging role.

• Falcons Offensive Struggles: Atlanta's inability to score consistently makes covering this spread challenging, especially against a disciplined defense like Vegas.

Projection:

The Raiders keep it close as home underdogs, frustrating Cousins with pressure and feeding their emerging weapons like Mayer in the passing game. Bijan Robinson racks up carries as the Falcons look to control the clock, but ultimately, the Raiders do enough to cover and keep this game competitive into the final whistle.

NCAAB: Citadel at Central Arkansas

Pick: Central Arkansas ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Monday's matchup in the Atlantic Sun vs. Southern Conference Challenge features Central Arkansas hosting Citadel. While the Bears may sport a less impressive record, their struggles are largely due to a demanding non-conference schedule that included Georgia Tech, BYU, Utah, and Arkansas—all formidable opponents. Central Arkansas has been battle-tested, and this home game presents a prime opportunity to snap their four-game losing streak.

Citadel, while improved in certain areas, has struggled to find consistency away from home. Central Arkansas’ challenging schedule has prepared them well for a game against a team of Citadel’s caliber. The Bears also boast the advantage of playing on their home court, where they’ve performed significantly better.

Indicators:

• Strength of Schedule: Central Arkansas has faced much tougher opponents, preparing them for matchups like this.

• Home-Court Advantage: The Bears will benefit from familiarity and a favorable environment to rebound from recent struggles.

• Challenge Momentum: The Atlantic Sun Conference has shown success in this challenge format, and Central Arkansas is well-positioned to follow suit.

Projection:

Central Arkansas capitalizes on the home advantage and their experience against tougher competition to secure a much-needed win, ending their losing streak and triumphing over Citadel.

NCAAB: Grand Canyon at Louisiana Tech

Pick: La Tech +2.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Grand Canyon thrives on an up-tempo style, averaging 74.4 possessions per game (top 55 nationally). However, their offense has not been as consistent as last season, particularly against strong defenses. The Antelopes have already dropped three games to teams with defenses ranked in the top 100 in efficiency, exposing vulnerabilities when pressured. Louisiana Tech, while not a team that necessarily pushes the pace, has shown the ability to compete in fast-paced contests, as demonstrated in games against Memphis, Southern, and Georgia Southern.

The Bulldogs have distinct advantages at home, shooting a solid 57.4% on their court while holding opponents to just 30.3% from three-point range and 47% overall. Their defensive consistency and ability to adapt to different playing styles make them a difficult matchup for the Antelopes, especially on their home floor.

Indicators:

• La Tech Home Edge: Bulldogs shooting 57.4% at home and holding opponents to inefficient shooting.

• Grand Canyon’s Struggles: The Antelopes have faltered against strong defenses, losing three games to top-100 efficiency teams.

• Pace Flexibility: While not a fast-paced team, Louisiana Tech has proven they can keep up in higher-tempo games.

• Defensive Control: La Tech excels at limiting perimeter scoring and can stymie Grand Canyon’s offensive rhythm.

Projection:

Louisiana Tech controls the pace and leverages their home-court shooting efficiency to stymie Grand Canyon’s up-tempo game, covering the spread and pulling off a narrow win.

NCAAB: South Alabama at Texas Christian University (TCU)

Pick: S. Alabama +12.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Horned Frogs return to action after an eight-day layoff but face significant adversity with the loss of their top player, Frankie Collins. Collins, who leads TCU in scoring, assists, and steals, is sidelined for the season, leaving the Horned Frogs searching for offensive cohesion. This absence has contributed to their struggles, as TCU is just 2-7 against the spread and has lost three of their last four games outright.

South Alabama, on the other hand, has shown resilience, boasting a 5-4 record against the spread, including an impressive 3-1 ATS on the road. The Jaguars come into this game with minimal fatigue, as they cruised to an easy victory over a smaller program on Sunday, allowing their key players to stay fresh. With their defensive prowess and ability to keep games competitive, South Alabama is well-positioned to cover this significant spread against a TCU team in transition.

Indicators:

• TCU’s Recent Struggles: The Horned Frogs are 2-7 ATS and have dropped three of their last four games outright.

• Key Absence: Frankie Collins’ season-ending injury leaves TCU without its primary offensive and defensive leader.

• Road Success: South Alabama is 3-1 ATS on the road, showcasing their ability to compete in tough environments.

• Rest Advantage: Despite playing Sunday, South Alabama’s low-stress win allowed their starters to conserve energy for this matchup.

Projection:

South Alabama keeps it competitive, leveraging TCU’s instability without Collins. Expect a tightly contested game with TCU pulling off a narrow win but failing to cover the spread. Final score: TCU 70, South Alabama 63.

NCAAB: Alcorn State at Rice

Pick: Rice -16.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup presents a clear disparity in team quality, making the sizable spread feel insufficient. Alcorn State has consistently struggled with offensive efficiency, with all of the Four Factors metrics falling below national averages. On the other hand, Rice ranks well above average in effective defensive field goal percentage, which could further stymie Alcorn State's limited offensive capabilities.

Projections show Rice winning by at least 23 points, providing a significant cushion against the 16.5-point spread. KenPom’s rankings also reflect the vast gap in overall team performance, as Alcorn State sits well below Rice in national standing. Furthermore, Rice’s ability to capitalize on their defensive strengths aligns with Alcorn’s inefficiency, especially in shooting.

Adding confidence to this pick is the sharp money movement, with 37% more cash coming in relative to the number of individual bets, indicating strong support from sharp bettors for Rice to dominate.

Indicators:

• Projections Favor Rice: Models have Rice winning by 23 points, well above the 16.5-point spread.

• KenPom Rankings: Significant national ranking disparity, with Rice far outclassing Alcorn State.

• Key Statistical Advantage: Rice’s above-average effective defensive FG% against Alcorn State’s subpar offensive FG%.

• Money Movement: 37% more cash compared to the ticket count indicates sharp confidence in Rice.

Projection:

Rice leverages their superior defense and offensive efficiency to dominate from the outset, coasting to a comfortable victory. Final score: Rice 85, Alcorn State 62.

NBA: Philadelphia 76ers at Charlotte Hornets

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers -3 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The 76ers will be without Joel Embiid again, but that hasn’t slowed them down in favorable matchups like this one. The Sixers recently defeated the Hornets on December 3rd, showcasing their ability to dominate even without their star big man. Paul George had a standout performance in that game, scoring 29 points on an impressive 63% shooting, leading the offensive charge.

Philadelphia’s depth and adaptability without Embiid remain key strengths, as Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris have consistently stepped up. Meanwhile, the Hornets continue to struggle against disciplined, well-coached teams. Their defensive inefficiencies, particularly in guarding the perimeter, leave them vulnerable to the Sixers' sharp shooting and ball movement.

Adding to this, Philadelphia’s strong road record against weaker opponents further bolsters their case to cover the modest 3-point spread.

Indicators:

• Recent Head-to-Head Matchup: Philadelphia’s dominant win on December 3rd despite Embiid’s absence.

• Key Performances: Paul George’s resurgence with 29 points on 63% shooting, supported by Maxey and Harris.

• Opponent Struggles: Charlotte’s inability to defend the perimeter and consistent defensive lapses.

• Road Strength: The Sixers’ solid road record and proven ability to cover small spreads against sub-.500 teams.

Projection:

Philadelphia outpaces Charlotte with a balanced offensive attack and capitalizes on the Hornets' defensive weaknesses. Final score: Philadelphia 111, Charlotte 10NBA: Chicago Bulls at Toronto Raptors

Pick: Under 240.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

A total set at 240 is hard to ignore, particularly in a game featuring teams like the Bulls and Raptors. While Chicago leans toward an up-tempo style with little regard for defense, the math just doesn't support this game soaring to that number. Even if both squads hit their season averages offensively and defensively, the combined total projects to fall well below 240.5, emphasizing the value in the Under.

The potential absence of Zach LaVine for the Bulls further tilts this game toward the Under, as his scoring would be missed and could slow the Bulls' offense. Additionally, the Raptors have been trending under the total lately, with the Under cashing in four of their last five games.

Toronto's defensive tenacity, particularly at home, combined with Chicago's offensive inconsistencies, could lead to a lower-scoring game than the oddsmakers expect.

Indicators:

• Market Context: A lofty 240.5 total, which seems inflated given both teams' season averages.

• Key Player Impact: Possible absence of Zach LaVine, a significant offensive piece for Chicago.

• Trends: The Under is 4-1 in Toronto's last five games.

• Model Projection: Our internal model forecasts 231 total points, creating substantial value on the Under.

Projection:

A slower-paced game with missed opportunities keeps this total well below the line. Final score: Toronto 117, Chicago 110.3.

NBA: Miami Heat at Detroit Pistons

Pick: Tyler Herro Over 3.5 3-Pointers Made / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Detroit Pistons continue to struggle defensively, particularly against perimeter shooting, and Tyler Herro is in a prime position to capitalize. At home, the Pistons are allowing opponents to shoot 40% from beyond the arc, one of the worst marks in the NBA.

Herro is on a heater this month, shooting a blistering 46.6% from three-point range and showing no hesitation to let it fly. When Miami last visited Detroit on November 12th, Herro drained 10 of 17 three-point attempts, clearly exploiting Detroit's weak perimeter defense. With his volume and accuracy, Herro has made at least four three-pointers in seven of his last nine games, and all indicators point to another strong shooting night for him.

Indicators:

• Pistons' Perimeter Defense: Allowing opponents to shoot 40% from beyond the arc at home.

• Herro's Shooting Form: 46.6% from three this month, making 4+ treys in 7 of his last 9 games.

• Historical Matchup: Hit 10 of 17 threes against Detroit earlier this season.

• Volume: Herro is averaging double-digit three-point attempts in recent games, giving him ample opportunity to clear this mark.

Projection:

Herro takes advantage of Detroit’s porous perimeter defense and continues his hot streak, finishing with 4-5 made threes in a strong shooting performance.

NBA: Denver Nuggets at Sacramento Kings

Pick: Kings ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Kings are riding a rare three-game win streak, their longest since the opening week of the season, and are showing signs of cohesion despite missing sparkplug Kevin Huerter (shoulder). Domantas Sabonis has been the driving force behind Sacramento's resurgence, highlighted by his 32-point, 20-rebound masterpiece against the Pelicans. Head coach Mike Brown has also found key contributions from the supporting cast, giving the Kings a balanced attack.

On the other side, the Nuggets have been inconsistent, going just 3-3 in their last six games. While Denver enjoyed impressive wins against Atlanta and the Clippers, their road struggles are worth noting—they had dropped three straight away games before a bounce-back in Atlanta last Sunday. With Nikola Jokic's brilliance a constant, the Nuggets remain formidable, but their road form leaves an opening for the Kings.

Sacramento’s home crowd and momentum from their recent win streak make this a tough spot for Denver to pull off a road victory.

Indicators:

• Sacramento Momentum: Three straight wins, highlighted by Sabonis' dominant performances.

• Denver Road Struggles: Lost three straight road games before narrowly breaking the streak in Atlanta.

• Kings’ Depth: Contributions from across the roster despite Huerter’s absence.

• Motivation: Sacramento looking to solidify its standing in the West against a marquee opponent.

Projection:

The Kings, buoyed by their home crowd and Sabonis' dominant play, edge out the Nuggets in a tightly contested matchup, securing a victory to extend their win streak to four games.

NHL: Florida Panthers at Edmonton Oilers

Pick: Oilers ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup carries emotional weight for the Oilers, who undoubtedly want to make a statement after falling to the Panthers in a dramatic seven-game 2024 Stanley Cup Final. Edmonton comes in riding a five-game winning streak, their longest of the season, with Leon Draisaitl leading the charge with multiple points in each victory. The Oilers appear to be hitting their stride offensively, which makes them a dangerous opponent at home.

Meanwhile, the Panthers' recent struggles are hard to overlook. Florida has been shut out in back-to-back games, signaling significant offensive issues. Their situation could worsen if Aleksander Barkov, the reigning Selke Trophy winner, misses the game due to illness. Barkov’s absence would leave a noticeable void in the Panthers' lineup, both offensively and defensively.

Edmonton’s depth, momentum, and the emotional edge tied to last season’s Finals give them the upper hand in this matchup, particularly on home ice.

Indicators:

• Momentum: Edmonton enters on a five-game winning streak, their best stretch this season.

• Key Player Impact: Florida’s Aleksander Barkov is questionable due to illness; his absence would severely impact their two-way play.

• Head-to-Head Context: Revenge factor for Edmonton after losing the Stanley Cup Finals to Florida last season.

• Offensive Form: Leon Draisaitl is in excellent form, posting multiple points in each of the past five games.

Projection:

Edmonton capitalizes on their momentum and Florida’s offensive struggles to take the win at home. Final score: Edmonton 4, Florida 2.