Frisco Bowl, NBA Cup Final, and College Basketball Opportunities

Yesterday’s Results – Discipline Wins the Day:
Last night’s 7-10 record may have produced a losing slate on paper, but here’s the magic of what we do: bankroll intelligence saved us from unnecessary losses. While others betting flat units might’ve felt the sting, our disciplined approach—leveraging strategic wager management—softened the blow and kept us in position for long-term success. This is why we don’t panic, we don’t chase, and we stay focused on the bigger picture.

One bright spot? College basketball continues to shine. Over the last 7 days alone, we’ve quietly put together a 23-14 record—a reminder that opportunities are always there for those willing to lean into the research and stick to the system.

The BrownBagBets Difference:
Our philosophy doesn’t waiver in the face of adversity. A tough night isn’t a setback; it’s part of the game. By focusing on bankroll intelligence, volume, and discipline, we’re building consistency and resilience for the long haul. College basketball remains December’s diamond in the rough, and we’ll continue to lean into what works.

As we head into the final weeks of 2023, we’re not here to win a single day—we’re here to win the month and set the stage for year-over-year growth. Stick with the process, trust the system, and let’s keep grinding together.

Today’s Slate – Excitement Across the Board:
Today, we’re blessed with opportunities across multiple leagues:

• College Bowl Season Kicks Off:
  The Frisco Bowl gives us a first taste of bowl season, with Memphis vs. West Virginia stepping onto the stage. College football always brings excitement, and we’ll be ready for the action.

• The NBA Cup Final:
  It’s championship night as the Bucks and Thunder battle it out in Las Vegas’ T-Mobile Center for the NBA Cup. Expect intensity, sharp lines, and plenty of angles to evaluate.

• Massive College Basketball Slate:
  December’s hottest trend continues. Today’s loaded slate is full of opportunities, and we’ll be diving deep to uncover the value plays that keep us ahead.

• NHL Value Canvas:
  With today’s strong NHL matchups, we see clear potential for value plays. These games provide us with another chance to execute smart, well-calculated bets.

Final Thought – Eyes on the Long Game:
We don’t measure success in single days. Yesterday reminded us of the strength in our approach—bankroll management protected us while college hoops continued to deliver. As we look to today, we have a full slate of opportunities, from bowl season kickoff to NBA excitement and beyond. Remember: it’s not about perfection—it’s about progress. Let’s stay sharp, stay disciplined, and keep stacking wins.

NCAAF - Frisco Bowl: Memphis vs West Virginia

Pick: Memphis ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Frisco Bowl presents two programs in vastly different positions heading into this matchup. Memphis, fueled by a dynamic offense and bowl game momentum, enters as the more stable and motivated team. West Virginia, meanwhile, is reeling from the firing of head coach Neal Brown, which has led to significant roster attrition via the transfer portal, leaving the Mountaineers in a precarious position.

Memphis boasts a potent offensive attack led by senior quarterback Seth Henigan, a Texas native who will relish the chance to play in his home state, and running back Mario Anderson. Their combined efforts have propelled the Tigers to average 35.2 points per game. In contrast, West Virginia’s defense has been a liability, surrendering 31.1 points per game and ranking 106th nationally.

The Mountaineers are under interim leadership, creating uncertainty and a lack of continuity. Memphis, on the other hand, is riding a three-game bowl winning streak and playing with a sense of purpose. The Tigers are highly motivated to claim a victory over a Power-5 opponent, and the team’s fondness for head coach Ryan Silverfield, who stands to earn a $50,000 bonus with a win, only adds fuel to their determination.

Indicators:

• Motivation: Memphis is eager to defeat a Power-5 team and extend their bowl game success streak.

• Roster Stability: West Virginia has been decimated by transfer portal losses following their coaching change.

• Offensive Strength: Memphis averages 35.2 points per game, led by QB Seth Henigan and RB Mario Anderson.

• Defensive Advantage: West Virginia’s 106th-ranked defense has struggled to contain opponents, allowing over 31 points per game.

• Coaching Stability: Memphis benefits from continuity and a motivated head coach, while West Virginia faces challenges under interim leadership.

Projection:

Memphis’ high-powered offense capitalizes on West Virginia’s defensive vulnerabilities and roster instability to secure a convincing victory. Final score: Memphis 38, West Virginia 24.

NBA Cup Final: Milwaukee Bucks vs Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo over 41.5 Points + Rebounds / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This NBA Cup Final promises to be a spectacle, but when it comes to wagering, one angle stands out: Giannis Antetokounmpo’s dominance. Giannis thrives in high-stakes environments, and with a championship on the line, we expect him to give everything he has. The Greek Freak has consistently stepped up with Damian Lillard on the floor this season, clearing this combined points and rebounds line in 13 of 20 games, including 8 of the last 10.

Milwaukee head coach Doc Rivers has shown no hesitation in extending Giannis' minutes in competitive games, with 36-38 minutes becoming the standard for the two-time MVP in tight contests. With no blowout in sight for a Cup Final, expect Giannis to hit that floor once again tonight.

The Thunder pose a tough challenge overall but lack a direct matchup to slow Giannis. OKC’s top defenders—Lu Dort and others—will be busy containing Damian Lillard and Milwaukee’s perimeter options, leaving Giannis with opportunities to dominate the interior. Additionally, while OKC is strong defensively as a team, they are susceptible to elite bigs crashing the boards, and Giannis is among the league’s best at converting his physicality into both scoring and rebounding opportunities.

Indicators:

• Elite Recent Form: Giannis has cleared 41.5 P+R in 8 of his last 10 games, showcasing his consistency.

• High Minutes Projection: Doc Rivers’ trust in Giannis' extended minutes keeps his production ceiling high.

• Thunder’s Mismatch Issue: OKC lacks a strong one-on-one defensive matchup for Giannis, giving him ample chances to dominate.

• Damian Lillard Factor: With OKC’s defensive attention split, Giannis will exploit the interior and grab second-chance opportunities.

Projection:

Giannis delivers a massive performance with both scoring and rebounding, clearing 41.5 Points + Rebounds as the Bucks lean on their superstar to push for the inaugural NBA Cup trophy. Expect a stat line flirting with 30+ points and 14+ boards as Milwaukee’s franchise player rises to the occasion.

NCAAB: Drexel at Howard

Pick: Over 144 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This early 3 PM ET tip-off provides a unique opportunity, as it isn’t likely to draw much attention from the casual betting public. Yet, the significant line movement from 137.5 to 144 indicates that sharp money has come in hard on the Over, a clear signal of value in this spot. Professional bettors appear to be all over this total, and for good reason.

Howard brings a fast-paced style of play, ranking well above the national average in tempo. Their offense has been clicking, averaging over 75 points per game, especially when facing defenses that struggle to contain penetration. Drexel, known for a more methodical style, has shown improved scoring efficiency this season, shooting nearly 35% from three and converting well inside the arc. Both teams have defenses that sit below the national average in efficiency, which opens the door for plenty of scoring opportunities.

Furthermore, Howard's home games tend to trend higher in totals, with the Bison pushing the pace on their home court. Coupled with Drexel’s ability to score in transition and knock down open looks, this game sets up well for a high-scoring outcome.

Indicators:

• Line Movement: Opened at 137.5, now sitting at 144, showing strong professional interest on the Over.

• Howard’s Tempo: High-paced team that excels at home, averaging over 75 points per game.

• Defensive Weaknesses: Both teams rank below the national average in defensive efficiency.

• Projections: Sharp models and internal projections forecast this total hitting around 148 points.

Projection:

With the pace and scoring efficiency both sides bring to the table, we project a 77-73 result, pushing the total comfortably Over 144.

NCAAB: University of Nevada Las Vegas at Dayton

Pick: Dayton -10.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

UNLV continues to underwhelm this season after significant roster turnover has left Kevin Kruger’s squad struggling for consistency. The departures of the Boone brothers and versatile guard Luis Rodriguez have stripped this team of both defensive versatility and offensive fluidity. Efforts to integrate 6-foot-11 juco transfer Bear Cherry into the lineup have only further slowed the offense, as Cherry has been held to single-digit scoring in four consecutive games. Sophomore guard Dedan Thomas is carrying far too much of the offensive burden for a team that has now dropped five straight games against the spread and seven of eight overall.

On the other side, Dayton is proving itself to be a legitimate force this season. The Flyers are a remarkable 8-2 against the spread and are coming off an impressive statement win on Saturday, where they rallied from 13 points down to beat 6th-ranked Marquette 71-63. That game showcased Dayton’s ability to adjust, lock down defensively, and execute in key moments. Playing at the UD Arena, one of the toughest environments in college basketball, the Flyers have the advantage both in form and momentum.

Indicators:

• UNLV’s Offensive Struggles: A lack of offensive versatility and reliance on Dedan Thomas has resulted in underachievement.

• Dayton’s Home Dominance: The Flyers are thriving at home and are 8-2 ATS on the season, including a statement win over Marquette.

• Defensive Edge: Dayton’s defensive prowess will exacerbate UNLV’s scoring struggles, particularly with Bear Cherry’s limited production.

• Momentum and Confidence: Dayton is riding high off a signature win and continues to trend upward while UNLV searches for answers.

Projection:

Dayton capitalizes on UNLV’s offensive issues and inconsistent play, comfortably covering the spread with a dominant performance at home. Look for a final score in the range of 76-60 as the Flyers’ depth and defensive intensity overwhelm the struggling Runnin’ Rebels.

NCAAB: Florida at University of North Carolina (UNC)

Pick: UNC +4.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

This sets up as a prime "buy-low" opportunity on North Carolina against a Florida team that looks impressive on paper but has yet to be tested by elite competition. Florida's record may sparkle, but it’s worth noting that the Gators have achieved their success against the 161st-toughest schedule according to KenPom rankings. The story is much different for the Tar Heels, who have navigated one of the most challenging schedules in the country.

UNC has already faced the gauntlet of Kansas and Michigan State, both tight games where they fell by a mere three points. While the Tar Heels are just 1-4 against KenPom's Top 30, those close battles have honed their resilience and should prepare them well for another competitive matchup. Florida may carry the momentum here, but they have yet to be tested in a high-pressure environment against a team of UNC’s caliber.

The line opened at +3.5 and has since shifted to +4.5, likely due to public perception and Florida’s inflated early-season performance. I don't expect this line to climb much higher, and the current value is excellent given UNC’s proven ability to keep games close against top-tier opponents.

Indicators:

• Strength of Schedule Disparity: Florida has succeeded against far weaker competition, while UNC has been battle-tested against some of the nation’s best.

• Close Losses for UNC: Tight defeats to elite teams like Kansas and Michigan State show UNC's ability to stay competitive.

• Line Movement: The adjustment to +4.5 provides added value for a Tar Heels team that matches up well in this spot.

• KenPom Metrics: Florida's impressive start is slightly misleading given the quality of competition; UNC remains capable of rising to the challenge.

Projection:

This game will mirror UNC’s previous performances against top-tier teams — a tightly contested battle that comes down to the wire. Expect the Tar Heels to cover the spread, with a projected final score of 75-72 in favor of Florida. UNC keeps it close, cashing the +4.5 ticket.

NCAAB: St. Bonaventure at Siena

Pick: St. Bonaventure -6.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

While the line movement here might suggest some buyback on Siena after opening close to -9, we see this as an overadjustment and an opportunity to pounce on St. Bonaventure at a discounted number. The current -6.5 line represents clear value, especially when paired with key betting indicators. Right now, 79% of the cash sits on the Bonnies, a significant 41% delta above the total number of wagers. This disparity strongly signals sharper action backing St. Bonaventure.

The Bonnies come into this matchup as the superior team in almost every measurable way. They have a significant edge in defensive efficiency, holding opponents to under 65 points per game, and Siena will struggle to find consistent offense against this elite unit. On the other side of the ball, St. Bonaventure’s scoring efficiency, particularly in the half-court, should allow them to pull away late against a Siena team that ranks near the bottom in defensive metrics nationally.

Additionally, Siena’s lack of depth and struggles in transition defense provide further reason to believe the Bonnies can exploit mismatches and create separation on the scoreboard.

Indicators:

• Line Overadjustment: Dropped from -9 to -6.5, creating a favorable value spot.

• Sharp Cash: 79% of total cash on St. Bonaventure, with a delta of 41% over total wagers.

• Projections: Our models and trusted sources project the Bonnies winning by as much as 16 points.

• Defensive Edge: St. Bonaventure ranks among the nation’s top defensive units, while Siena struggles with efficiency and transition defense.

Projection:

We expect St. Bonaventure to control the tempo and leverage their defensive dominance to create a comfortable margin. Final score projection: 74-58, covering the -6.5 spread with ease.

NCAAB: Coastal Carolina at North Carolina A&T

Pick: Coastal Carolina ML @ +155 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This matchup presents significant value on Coastal Carolina as a moneyline underdog. While oddsmakers have set the Chanticleers as 3- to 4-point dogs, multiple trusted projections indicate Coastal Carolina as the likely outright winner. A +155 price tag suggests a much closer matchup than the market implies, and our data shows this moneyline should be closer to -130 or better, creating a clear edge for a 2% wager.

KenPom rankings further bolster our confidence, as Coastal Carolina is positioned 48 spots higher than North Carolina A&T in the national rankings. That disparity underscores the talent gap and inefficiency in this line. Coastal Carolina’s balanced offensive attack and superior ability to capitalize on defensive mistakes give them a clear path to victory.

Additionally, Coastal Carolina has excelled against teams that struggle defensively in the paint, an area where the Aggies rank well below average in defensive efficiency. The Chanticleers should have success getting high-percentage looks while controlling the pace of play.

Indicators:

• Projections: Models favor Coastal Carolina to win outright despite the +155 line.

• KenPom Edge: Coastal Carolina ranks 48 spots higher than North Carolina A&T.

• Value Assessment: +155 ML pricing should be closer to -130 or better based on projections.

• Defensive Matchup: A&T struggles defending inside, an area where Coastal thrives offensively.

Projection:

We see Coastal Carolina controlling the tempo and winning a tightly contested matchup. Final score projection: 71-67 Chanticleers, delivering excellent value at +155.

NCAAB: Tennessee Tech at Western Illinois

Pick: Western Illinois ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Conference play kicks off for both programs in this Ohio Valley Conference matchup, and early-season insights suggest a notable gap between these teams. The league’s coaches and media projections — while imperfect — are a valuable indicator here, and they’ve pegged Western Illinois as a contender, picked to finish second, while Tennessee Tech sits at the bottom of the preseason poll.

Western Illinois' Sean Smith is a player to watch, coming off back-to-back triple-doubles, the first in OVC history to achieve that feat. Smith’s form, combined with the Leathernecks' home-court edge, gives them the upper hand. The Leathernecks also have continuity on their roster and enter this game with clear momentum.

Tennessee Tech, on the other hand, has struggled to establish any rhythm offensively and hasn’t faced much competition that suggests they can handle a higher-tier OVC team like Western Illinois. Last season, WIU won this very matchup by seven points on the road, and now with the home crowd and improved form, they’re well-positioned to take care of business.

Indicators:

• Coaches/Media Projections: Western Illinois picked second, Tennessee Tech projected last in the OVC.

• Historical Matchup: WIU defeated Tennessee Tech by seven points on the road last season.

• Player Performance: Sean Smith's historic back-to-back triple-doubles give WIU a clear individual edge.

• Home Advantage: WIU now gets to host Tennessee Tech in what is typically a competitive venue for the Leathernecks.

• Model Projection: Our model has Western Illinois winning by six points, aligning well with current expectations.

Projection:

Western Illinois asserts itself as one of the top teams in the Ohio Valley Conference with a controlled victory at home. Look for the Leathernecks to secure the win, 75-68, as they capitalize on Tennessee Tech’s offensive struggles and Sean Smith continues his stellar play.

NHL: New Jersey Devils at St. Louis Blues

Pick: Under 5.5 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Since Jim Montgomery took over behind the bench for the St. Louis Blues in late November, the team’s defense has transformed into one of the NHL's stingiest units. That trend continued on Sunday with a 3-2 win over the New York Rangers, as St. Louis delivered another disciplined performance. In Montgomery's short tenure, the Blues have excelled in nearly every key defensive metric, making it clear that his defensive-minded approach is paying immediate dividends.

Expect Jordan Binnington back in net tonight after Joel Hofer earned his fourth consecutive victory on Sunday. Binnington has already shut out these very Devils, 3-0, on November 27 at Prudential Center, in what was his first start under Montgomery. On the other end of the ice, the Devils will counter with Jacob Markstrom, who has been equally impressive in December, boasting a 1.39 GAA and .934 save percentage across five starts. Markstrom's steady play gives New Jersey the foundation to keep this game low-scoring.

Both teams are trending toward tighter, more methodical play. While New Jersey is typically more offensively potent, their recent games have leaned more conservative, and St. Louis’ structured system under Montgomery will look to stifle any quick transitions. Combine that with two goalies in strong form, and this matchup has all the ingredients for a defensive battle.

Indicators:

• St. Louis Defensive Improvement: Blues rank high in defensive metrics since Jim Montgomery took over.

• Goalie Matchup: Jordan Binnington recently blanked the Devils 3-0, and Jacob Markstrom is riding a stellar December stretch.

• Recent Trends: Markstrom has a 1.39 GAA in his last five starts; St. Louis has held opponents to 2 goals or fewer in 6 of its last 7 games.

• Head-to-Head: The previous meeting between these teams finished 3-0 in favor of St. Louis.

• Game Style: Blues’ defensive structure combined with Markstrom’s form suggests another low-scoring affair.

Projection:

Expect a tight, defensive game between two well-coached teams and strong goaltenders. We project a 3-1 St. Louis victory, keeping the total comfortably under the 5.5 goal mark.