Turning Setbacks Into Momentum: BrownBagBets Eyes Another Winning Day

Finding Strength in the Rebound

Yesterday started off as one of those days that could’ve defined the entire month in the worst possible way. We took a risk we shouldn’t have, leaning too heavily into Champions League plays early in the day, and let’s be honest—it backfired. A 3-8 record in that space had us down big before the evening slate even began. It wasn’t pretty, and the depression hit hard.

But this is BrownBagBets, and if there’s one thing we know how to do, it’s bounce back. When the chips were down, we turned to the one thing we trust most: college basketball. Our NCAAB plays came roaring back, going 7-3, and just like that, we turned what could have been a disastrous day into a winning day.

That’s the message we want to share with all of you today: it’s not over until it’s over.

The Path Forward: December’s Still Wide Open

It’s easy to let a rough start or even one bad stretch define how you feel about the whole month. But here’s the reality: we’re only a third of the way through December. There are so many games left to be played, so many opportunities left to capitalize on, and so much time to turn things around.

The comeback started last night. The discipline to stick with what works—the bread and butter of college basketball—reminded us why this process has worked for us over the long haul. December has plenty of runway left, and we’re ready to keep climbing.

For everyone reading this, let us be the example: bad starts don’t mean bad endings. If you’re disciplined, focused, and willing to learn from mistakes, you can always find a way forward.

What’s on the Slate Today

1. Champions League, Matchday 6

• Another slate of UCL games is on tap today, and while we’re not going heavy in this space, we’ve learned from yesterday and have a more calculated approach.

2. College Basketball

• This remains our strongest sport by far this season. Tonight’s slate is packed with value plays, and we’ve identified some spots we feel confident in to build on yesterday’s success.

3. NHL and NBA

• Hockey continues to provide consistent opportunities, and we’re focused on key matchups that align with our indicators. On the NBA side, tonight’s slate gives us some intriguing lines and player props worth exploring.

A Word to Our Community

Yesterday wasn’t perfect, but it was a turning point. It reminded us that the process works when we stay true to it. It reminded us that rebounding is always possible, and it reminded us that one day—good or bad—never defines the month.

If you’re in this with us, know that we’re just as committed as ever. The research is done, the adjustments have been made, and we’re ready to take another step forward. Together, we’ll keep grinding, keep improving, and keep pushing toward a winning December.

Let’s Keep Building

The foundation is there. The confidence is back. Now, it’s time to put in the work and keep stacking wins. Let’s make today count, one play at a time

Champions League: Slovan Bratislava at Atletico Madrid

Pick: Atletico Madrid -2.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Slovan Bratislava has been completely outclassed throughout this Champions League campaign, suffering five defeats while conceding 18 goals and scoring just four. Their -14 goal difference highlights their struggles against Europe's elite. Previous heavy losses—5-1 to Celtic, 4-0 to Manchester City, and 4-1 at home to Dinamo Zagreb—demonstrate their inability to compete at this level. Facing a dominant Atlético Madrid side, the Slovak champions appear set for another drubbing.

Atlético, by contrast, are in scintillating form. They have scored an astounding 18 goals in their last four matches, including a 6-0 demolition of Sparta Prague in their previous Champions League outing. Atlético thrives in high-stakes home matches and has shown a ruthless streak against weaker opposition. With their dynamic attack firing on all cylinders, led by Antoine Griezmann and Alvaro Morata, Atlético could easily cover this large spread.

Betting Indicators:

• Slovan Bratislava Form: Five consecutive UCL losses, conceding 18 goals and scoring only 4.

• Atletico Madrid Form: Scored 18 goals in their last 4 matches, including a 6-0 UCL win.

• Head-to-Head Dynamics: Slovan has been blown out by weaker teams than Atletico, making this matchup particularly daunting.

• Home Advantage: Atletico Madrid is a powerhouse at home, and the disparity in class between the two sides is evident.

Final Prediction:

Atletico Madrid should dominate from start to finish, using their attacking depth and tactical discipline to exploit Bratislava’s vulnerabilities. Expect a convincing win that easily clears the -2.5 spread.

Atletico Madrid 5, Slovan Bratislava 0

Champions League - Same Game Parlay: FC Barcelona at Borussia Dortmund

Pick: Dortmund +0.5 + Over 3.5 Goals @ +315 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

This highly anticipated clash between Borussia Dortmund and FC Barcelona could turn into an offensive spectacle. Dortmund has thrived in the Champions League this season, securing four wins in five matches and tallying an impressive 16 goals. They’ve dominated at home, winning both UCL games comfortably. Young striker Jamie Gittens is in fine form, scoring in four consecutive matches, adding firepower to Dortmund’s high-octane attack.

Barcelona, level on points with Dortmund in the group standings, has struggled for consistency recently, winning just two of their last six games across all competitions. On the road in the Champions League, their performances have been less than stellar, with one win and one loss in two matches. While Robert Lewandowski has the potential to shine in his return to Signal Iduna Park, Barça's defensive vulnerabilities, combined with Dortmund's attacking momentum, suggest this could be a tightly contested match.

Both teams boast prolific offenses in this tournament—Barça has scored 17 goals in their last four UCL games—which makes the Over 3.5 Goals a strong play. With Dortmund hosting and displaying superior form in Europe, the +0.5 handicap ensures value in a match where they are unlikely to lose outright.

Betting Indicators:

• Borussia Dortmund's UCL Form: Four wins, one loss, and 16 goals scored in five games.

• Barcelona's Recent Form: Only two wins in their last six matches and inconsistent road performances.

• High Scoring Trends: Dortmund averages over 3 goals per UCL game, while Barcelona has netted 17 in their last four.

• Dortmund's Home Record: Perfect in UCL play this season with commanding performances.

• Star Power: Jamie Gittens’ scoring streak and Lewandowski’s return to Dortmund elevate the attacking potential.

Final Prediction:

Expect an action-packed affair as both sides look to secure a favorable position heading into the knockout rounds. Dortmund’s home advantage and Barcelona’s firepower should lead to goals aplenty, with the hosts poised to at least secure a draw.

Final Score Prediction: Borussia Dortmund 3, FC Barcelona 2

NCAAB: Dartmouth at Notre Dame

Pick: Dartmouth +18 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Ivy League continues to prove it’s no pushover in non-conference play, as demonstrated by Brown’s win over Rhode Island. Dartmouth, while not a top-tier Ivy contender, exemplifies this trend. The Big Green recently secured an impressive road victory over ACC opponent Boston College, showcasing their competitiveness. Led by experienced guard Ryan Cornish (14.6 PPG) and a roster full of upperclassmen, Dartmouth has the tools to stay within this sizeable spread.

Notre Dame, on the other hand, has struggled offensively in the absence of leading scorer Markus Burton, managing just 62 points per game over the last four contests. The Fighting Irish lack the sharp edge needed to dominate opponents, particularly with their offensive production dipping significantly.

Betting Indicators:

• Dartmouth’s Resilience: Recent win over Boston College highlights their capability against higher-tier opponents.

• Notre Dame’s Offensive Struggles: Averaging 62 PPG without Markus Burton in the past four games.

• Veteran Leadership: Dartmouth’s roster, filled with juniors and seniors, provides stability and experience in challenging road matchups.

• Spread Consideration: A large +18 spread provides a cushion for a competitive Dartmouth team against a struggling Notre Dame offense.

Final Prediction:

Dartmouth's experience and Notre Dame’s recent scoring woes should result in a closer-than-expected contest. The Big Green have shown they can compete against quality teams and should be able to cover this large spread.

Final Score Prediction: Notre Dame 70, Dartmouth 59

NCAAB: Wisconsin-Milwaukee at Green Bay

Pick: Under 159.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Green Bay’s slow start under HC Doug Gottlieb has been exacerbated by an unusual situation involving top scorer Anthony Roy (28 PPG). Despite his scoring prowess, Roy was benched in Saturday’s 83-61 loss to Cleveland State. This incident raises questions about team chemistry and offensive cohesion. Even if Roy returns tonight, Green Bay’s offensive rhythm may remain disrupted, as evidenced by their 6-of-19 three-point shooting in his absence.

Milwaukee, on the other hand, is coming off a strong 79-67 win over Cleveland State, showcasing a disciplined approach under HC Bart Lundy. While Milwaukee is the steadier team in this matchup, their offensive ceiling is limited by 29.2% three-point shooting, which could suppress overall scoring. This game’s pace and recent form suggest a total well under 160.

Betting Indicators:

• Green Bay Offensive Concerns: Anthony Roy’s availability and the team’s cohesion remain question marks after recent developments.

• Milwaukee’s Shooting Woes: The Panthers are hitting just 29.2% from beyond the arc, limiting high-scoring potential.

• Recent Performances: Green Bay managed only 61 points in their last game, while Milwaukee’s controlled style kept Cleveland State to 67 points.

• Team Disparity: Milwaukee’s consistent performance and Green Bay’s offensive struggles hint at a controlled game, keeping the total under.

Final Prediction:

Milwaukee’s steadier offense and Green Bay’s internal issues suggest a slower-paced, lower-scoring game. Expect defensive intensity and poor shooting to keep this one comfortably under the total.

Final Score Prediction: Milwaukee 74, Green Bay 65

NCAAB: Indiana University of Indianapolis (IUI) at Purdue Fort Wayne (PFW)

Pick: Over 150.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup features two teams capable of putting up points at a high clip, making the over a strong play. Purdue Fort Wayne (PFW) has been in excellent form offensively, averaging 82 points per game and scoring 77 or more in seven of its last eight games. Their fast-paced style—marked by over 60 shot attempts per game—and a balanced lineup featuring four double-digit scorers, led by Jalen Jackson (19.1 PPG) and Rasheed Bello (14.4 PPG), ensure consistent offensive production.

On the other side, Indiana University of Indianapolis (IUI) is also adept at scoring, averaging 78 points per game under new HC Paul Corsaro. His successful integration of standout D-II transfers Paul Zilinskas (18.7 PPG) and Jarvis Walker (16.3 PPG) has boosted the Greyhounds’ offensive capabilities.

With both teams leaning into their offensive strengths and playing at a brisk tempo, this game projects as a high-scoring affair.

Betting Indicators:

• PFW Offensive Prowess: The Mastodons average 82 PPG and have scored 77+ in seven of their last eight games.

• High-Tempo Play: PFW shoots more than 60 times per game, ensuring a high number of possessions.

• IUI Offensive Momentum: IU Indy scores 78 PPG, led by high-impact transfers Zilinskas and Walker.

• Recent Form: PFW is 6-2 to the over in its last eight games, and both teams are well-suited for a scoring battle.

Final Prediction:

Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring contest with both teams firing on all cylinders offensively. With consistent scoring threats on both sides, the over should hit comfortably.

Final Score Prediction: PFW 84, IUI 77

NCAAB: New Jersey Tech at Delaware State

Pick: Delaware State ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup features two struggling programs, but the edge lies with Delaware State, particularly on their home court. While both teams rank among the country's lowest overall, NJIT has been completely outmatched on the road. Despite facing a tough schedule, NJIT’s inexperience is glaring, with only three players on the roster having previous Division I experience.

Delaware State, though far from dominant, has taken advantage of its home environment, remaining unbeaten at home—albeit against lower-tier competition. Their performances at home provide a semblance of consistency compared to NJIT, which has failed to mount a serious challenge on the road.

Betting Indicators:

• NJIT Road Struggles: NJIT has not come close to a road win, highlighting their struggles away from home.

• Roster Inexperience: NJIT fields a roster with only three players who entered this season with prior Division I experience.

• Delaware State’s Home Edge: The Hornets are unbeaten at home, using their familiar environment to offset their weaknesses.

• Motivation Factor: In a battle between two struggling teams, Delaware State’s consistency at home provides the edge.

Final Prediction:

While this game features two of the country’s weakest teams, Delaware State has shown just enough at home to back them on the money line. Expect the home court advantage to play a key role in securing the victory.

Final Score Prediction: Delaware State 68, NJIT 63

NHL: New York Rangers at Buffalo Sabres

Pick: Rangers ML / Wager: 3%

Pick: Under 6.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The New York Rangers are in desperate need of a bounce-back performance after suffering back-to-back disappointing losses, including a stunning defeat at home to Chicago. Despite the recent skid, Igor Shesterkin remains a consistent presence in goal, allowing only two goals in each of his last two starts against Pittsburgh and Buffalo. Shesterkin’s career record vs. the Sabres (9-2-2, 2.29 GAA, .921 SV) suggests he can be the key to stopping the Rangers’ slide.

On the other hand, the Buffalo Sabres are mired in a worse slump, losing seven straight overall and six consecutive games at home. The absence of Rasmus Dahlin, their star defenseman, further compounds Buffalo’s woes, particularly on the defensive end. Goalie Ukko Pekka Luukkonen has struggled mightily in December, posting a 4.27 GAA, which doesn’t inspire confidence for a team desperate to find answers.

While Buffalo managed a shocking 6-1 win over the Rangers earlier in the season, Luukkonen’s stellar play in that game (stopping 25 of 26 shots) seems more like an outlier given his current form. Conversely, the Rangers’ struggles have been more about finishing chances than poor defensive structure, which should make this a low-scoring affair.

Betting Indicators:

• Rangers’ Goaltending Edge: Igor Shesterkin has been solid despite the team’s struggles and has excellent career stats against Buffalo.

• Sabres’ Defensive Issues: Ukko Pekka Luukkonen’s poor December performance (4.27 GAA) and the absence of Rasmus Dahlin leave Buffalo vulnerable.

• Low-Scoring Trends: Both teams have struggled offensively, with New York managing just one goal vs. Chicago and Buffalo unable to score consistently during their losing streak.

• Desperation Factor: The Rangers, after two disheartening losses, are in a prime "get-right" spot against a struggling Sabres team.

Final Prediction:

The Rangers should capitalize on Buffalo’s defensive issues and lack of form to secure a much-needed road win. Meanwhile, the combination of Shesterkin’s steadiness in goal and Buffalo’s inability to generate consistent offense should keep this game under the total.

Final Score Prediction: Rangers 3, Sabres 2

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Houston Rockets

Pick: Rockets ML / Wager: 2%

Pick: Under 223.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Houston Rockets aim to end a staggering 15-game losing streak against the Golden State Warriors in an NBA Cup quarterfinal matchup. While Golden State snapped a five-game losing skid with a win over the T-wolves on Sunday, the team’s form remains shaky, having lost six of their last eight games. Steph Curry returned and scored 30 in that win, but the Warriors’ offense hasn’t translated into high-scoring games, as they’ve gone 9-2 to the under in their last 11 contests. The absence of Andrew Wiggins and Moses Moody further diminishes their offensive depth.

The Rockets, meanwhile, are in a strong position to capitalize. Houston has shown grit at home, particularly with Fred VanVleet likely to return and Tari Eason cleared to play. The Rockets’ defense is one of the league’s most improved this season, and their ability to control pace could limit Golden State’s scoring opportunities. Despite the Warriors’ dominance in this series, Houston’s home-court edge and Golden State’s inconsistent road play give the Rockets a chance to end the streak.

Betting Indicators:

• Under Trends: The Warriors have hit the under in 9 of their last 11 games, focusing on defense rather than pace.

• Rockets’ Defensive Strength: Houston has improved defensively this season, capable of slowing down Golden State's offense.

• Warriors’ Road Struggles: Golden State has been inconsistent away from home, compounded by potential absences of Wiggins and Moody.

• Return of Key Players: Houston gets a boost with Fred VanVleet expected back and Tari Eason cleared to play.

Final Prediction:

The Rockets snap their losing streak against Golden State with a well-balanced performance on both ends of the court. Meanwhile, the Warriors’ recent under trend continues, with Houston’s defense limiting Golden State’s scoring opportunities in a slower-paced contest.

Final Score Prediction: Rockets 110, Warriors 105