Momentum Restored: BrownBagBets Eyes Thursday Night Football, NBA, NCAAB, and NHL Plays

A Return to Form

Finally! A day that feels like classic BrownBagBets. After what felt like an eternity navigating a rough patch, we’ve officially turned the corner with an 8-2 day across 10 plays. A 4-0 sweep in NCAAB, paired with 2-0 performances in both NHL and NBA, made for the kind of night that reminds us why we stick to the process. Even with our ongoing struggles in Champions League (where our two losses lived yesterday), the day was everything we needed to start rebuilding momentum.

This wasn’t just about the wins; it was about what the journey has taught us. Losing streaks don’t just test your patience—they refine your discipline. They challenge you to adapt, refocus, and double down on what works.

Lessons from the Slump

Over this recent stretch, we’ve been forced to reexamine everything. Here’s what we’ve learned and how we’ll carry it forward:

1. Stick to the Strengths:

   • NCAAB has been a consistent winner, even during the slump. The data shows it, the results prove it, and last night solidified it. Going forward, we’re leaning into this space even more.

2. Don’t Force Plays in Struggling Spaces:

   • Champions League has been challenging, no doubt. Instead of forcing plays, we’re going to approach it more selectively, focusing only on spots where our confidence is highest.

3. Adaptation is Key:

   • By analyzing every loss over the past few weeks, we’ve fine-tuned our indicators across all leagues. This is how we’ve consistently rebounded, and it’s what ensures long-term success.

4. Resilience Matters More Than Perfection:

   • We didn’t abandon our discipline, and that’s why we’re here today, celebrating a winning night. The process works if you stick with it.

What’s on the Slate Tonight

1. Thursday Night Football

• The 7-6 LA Rams travel to San Francisco to take on the 6-7 49ers in what promises to be a pivotal NFC West matchup. While the NFL hasn’t been our strongest league this season, we’ve identified a few key plays that align with our refined approach.

2. NCAAB: The Battle for Iowa

• Iowa State vs. Iowa takes center stage in a raucous environment that favors the Hawkeyes. Despite a lighter slate of college hoops tonight, this game—and a couple of others—have stood out in our research.

3. NBA and NHL Abundance

• Both leagues have packed schedules, offering plenty of opportunities to build on last night’s success. As always, we’re targeting matchups where our proprietary indicators show the clearest value.

A Look Forward

One great day doesn’t define the month, just like one bad day doesn’t either. But what a day like yesterday does is remind us what’s possible when you stick to the principles that have worked time and time again. We’re not just aiming for another winning night; we’re building momentum to close out December on a high note.

For everyone following along, this is the kind of stretch that proves the value of discipline. Stick with the plan, and the results will follow.

Let’s Build on the Momentum

The plays are researched, the adjustments are made, and the confidence is back. Today’s another opportunity to keep climbing. Let’s make it count.

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Rams ML @ +125 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Colby Parkinson over 8.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Jauan Jennings over 70.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Deebo Samuel over 3.5 Receptions / Wager: 2%

Pick: Deebo Samuel over 50.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

The Los Angeles Rams look to complete the season sweep against the San Francisco 49ers. Sean McVay’s squad comes into this game healthier and more balanced, while the 49ers have struggled with inconsistency in key areas, particularly at quarterback. Although Kyle Shanahan has historically succeeded against McVay in the regular season, the Rams’ overall health, improved offensive line, and big-game performance tendencies position them well as underdogs. The Rams’ 11-5 record when Matt Stafford has his top weapons available is a strong indicator of their potential to pull off the upset.

Colby Parkinson has consistently cleared his receiving yardage prop, aided by consistent involvement in the Rams’ passing game. The 49ers’ rediscovered pass rush will push Stafford to check down frequently, giving Parkinson opportunities to surpass this low threshold.

Jauan Jennings has emerged as a primary target in the absence of Brandon Aiyuk, commanding a massive 30% target share. His past success against the Rams (175 yards in Week 3) combined with their defensive vulnerabilities against explosive plays suggests another big outing.

Deebo Samuel, frustrated with his recent lack of involvement, could be in line for an increased workload. Shanahan and Purdy have both acknowledged the need to feature him more prominently, which aligns with his proven track record in prime-time games and his success in past matchups with the Rams (42 catches in his last seven significant appearances against LA).

Betting Indicators:

• Rams’ Record in Division Games: McVay is 23-10-1 in December games and thrives in tight divisional matchups.

• San Francisco’s Fourth Quarter Struggles: The 49ers rank among the worst in fourth-quarter performance this season, which could allow the Rams to capitalize late.

• Colby Parkinson’s Consistency: Parkinson has cleared his receiving prop in four consecutive games and is poised to exploit short-yardage opportunities.

• Jauan Jennings’ Target Share: Jennings has averaged over 70 yards per game since Aiyuk’s injury.

• Deebo’s Prime-Time Impact: Samuel has averaged 6 catches per game in his last meaningful contests against LA and thrives in Thursday night games.

Final Prediction:

The Rams exploit their health advantage and offensive balance to upset the 49ers in a tightly contested game. Colby Parkinson and Jauan Jennings take advantage of matchup vulnerabilities, while Deebo Samuel regains his offensive rhythm as the 49ers look to keep pace.

Final Score Prediction: Rams 27, 49ers 24

NCAAB: North Carolina A&T at Virginia Tech

Pick: NC A&T +15.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Virginia Tech has not looked like its usual self under head coach Mike Young this season. The Hokies are struggling offensively, particularly with their three-point shooting, which has dropped to 31%, far below the typical 35-40% range that defines Young's teams. The dismissal of former Temple guard Hysier Miller has compounded issues, leaving the backcourt without a consistent scoring threat, and no guard is currently averaging double figures. Forward Toibu Lawal leads the team with 11.9 points per game, but he alone cannot lift a struggling offense.

North Carolina A&T, while projected to finish in the middle-to-lower ranks of the Coastal Athletic Association, has shown they can be competitive in losses. The Aggies have managed to stay within striking distance in most games this season and have a respectable 4-2 record against the spread in road games.

The Aggies hold an apparent edge in the backcourt with a trio of guards who can put up points. Ryan Forrest (19.9 ppg), Landon Glasper (17.6 ppg), and Jahnathan Lamothe (12.3 ppg) offer a balanced scoring threat that could exploit Virginia Tech’s defensive lapses. If the Aggies’ guards play to their potential, they can make this a closer contest than the spread suggests.

Betting Indicators:

• Virginia Tech's Offensive Woes: Shooting just 31% from three, a significant drop-off for Mike Young's teams.

• NC A&T's ATS Record: 4-2 ATS on the road, consistently competitive in losses.

• Backcourt Firepower: NC A&T's trio of guards (Forrest, Glasper, Lamothe) combine for over 49 points per game, a notable strength against a guard-light Hokies team.

Final Prediction:

North Carolina A&T leverages its strong backcourt to keep the game close against a struggling Virginia Tech squad. While the Hokies might win, the Aggies should cover the spread.

Final Score Prediction: Virginia Tech 74, NC A&T 64

NCAAB: Iowa State at Iowa

Pick: Iowa +6.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

The Cy-Hawk Series rivalry game returns with a clash between Iowa and Iowa State. Despite the Cyclones' strong season thus far, the Hawkeyes have dominated this matchup at home, winning the last four contests in Iowa City by an average margin of 18.8 points. While an 18.8-point win may be unlikely in this matchup, the spread of +6.5 provides strong value for Iowa in what promises to be a raucous, hostile environment for Iowa State.

This game represents Iowa State's first true road test of the season, and the intensity of the Cy-Hawk rivalry adds an extra layer of difficulty. Iowa's defense has been stout, holding eight of nine opponents under 50% shooting, a testament to their ability to grind down opposing offenses.

While Iowa State enters as the more well-rounded team on paper, the Hawkeyes' home-court advantage and track record in this rivalry make it difficult to justify a line as steep as 6.5 points.

Betting Indicators:

• Home Dominance: Iowa has won its last four Cy-Hawk games at home by an average of 18.8 points.

• Iowa's Defensive Strength: Hawkeyes have held eight of nine opponents under 50% shooting this season.

• First Road Game: Iowa State is playing its first true road game of the season in a hostile environment.

• Model Projection: Iowa State by 4 points, suggesting value on Iowa at +6.5.

Final Prediction:

Iowa's ability to stifle opponents defensively and the intensity of their home crowd should allow the Hawkeyes to stay competitive in this game. Expect a close contest with Iowa covering the spread.

Final Score Prediction: Iowa State 71, Iowa 68

NHL: Chicago Blackhawks at New York Islanders

Pick: Islanders -1 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The New York Islanders have been inconsistent this season, but this matchup against a depleted Chicago Blackhawks team presents a favorable opportunity. The Blackhawks are dealing with significant issues on the blueline due to injuries and will be without their No. 1 goaltender Petr Mrazek. While backup Arvid Soderblom has performed admirably this season, his long-term track record suggests he's overachieving and vulnerable to regression.

On the Islanders' side, Ilya Sorokin has been steady in net with a 2.29 GAA and .919 save percentage over his last six games. When the Islanders score three or more goals, they are 11-2-4 this season, which bodes well considering Chicago’s defensive struggles. The Blackhawks have been anemic offensively, scoring two or fewer goals in five of their last six games.

Although the Islanders' moneyline is priced heavily at around -190, taking the -1 puck line provides a safer alternative with a chance to push rather than risk a higher cost for the outright win.

Betting Indicators:

• Blackhawks' Offensive Woes: Chicago has scored two or fewer goals in five of their past six games.

• Injuries: Blackhawks' blueline is depleted, and No. 1 goaltender Petr Mrazek is out.

• Islanders' Goal Support: New York has scored three or more goals 17 times this season, going 11-2-4 in those games.

• Goaltending Advantage: Ilya Sorokin is in form with a 2.29 GAA and .919 save percentage over his past six.

Final Prediction:

The Islanders' goaltending and Chicago's offensive struggles should dictate this matchup. If the Islanders manage at least three goals, they should secure the win or push on the -1 line.

Final Score Prediction: Islanders 4, Blackhawks 2

NHL: San Jose Sharks at St. Louis Blues

Pick: Blues ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The St. Louis Blues find themselves in an advantageous spot as they host the San Jose Sharks, who are nearing the end of a grueling road trip. The Sharks have improved from their dismal start to the season but enter this game on a three-game losing streak. The team could also be without top defenseman Cody Ceci, and newly acquired goaltender Alexander Georgiev is expected to make his debut after struggling in Colorado with a 3.38 GAA and .874 SV this season.

Meanwhile, the Blues have been rejuvenated under their new head coach, going 5-1-1 in their last seven games. This will be their first game at home in two weeks, providing a welcome advantage. Key player Robert Thomas has been in exceptional form since returning from injury, tallying 13 points in 10 games (four goals, nine assists). Additionally, St. Louis is 2-0 against the Sharks this season, though both games required overtime or a shootout.

Given San Jose's travel fatigue, potential roster limitations, and goaltending uncertainty, the Blues are in an excellent position to capitalize and secure a win.

Betting Indicators:

• Sharks' Travel Fatigue: San Jose is at the end of a long road trip and on a three-game losing streak.

• Goaltending Disadvantage: Alexander Georgiev debuts for San Jose after struggling in Colorado with a 3.38 GAA and .874 SV.

• Blues' Momentum: St. Louis is 5-1-1 under new coaching and returns home after a two-week road stretch.

• Player Impact: Robert Thomas has been a standout with 13 points in 10 games since returning from injury.

• Head-to-Head: The Blues are 2-0 vs. the Sharks this season, with both games extending to OT or a shootout.

Final Prediction:

The Blues' recent form and the Sharks' travel fatigue give St. Louis a decisive edge. San Jose may keep it close, but the Blues should prevail in regulation or overtime.

Final Score Prediction: Blues 4, Sharks 2

NHL: Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

Pick: Stars -1 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Nashville Predators are in a tailspin, losing eight straight games and entering this matchup shorthanded. Key players Ryan O'Reilly (5G, 9A) and Roman Josi (7G, 16A), arguably the best two-way defenseman in the NHL, are already ruled out or highly doubtful for Thursday. This severely limits Nashville’s ability to compete against a Dallas Stars team that is finding its groove.

Dallas has won four consecutive games at home and continues to look strong at the American Airlines Center. The Stars also hold a psychological edge after defeating the Predators 4-3 on opening night in Nashville—a game that set contrasting expectations for both teams this season. While Nashville appeared poised to contend after offseason acquisitions like Steven Stamkos, the team has underperformed significantly, and this matchup feels like a "punt game" for the Preds as they try to regroup.

Meanwhile, the Stars are firing on all cylinders, with a balanced attack and solid goaltending. They have the depth and consistency to exploit Nashville's depleted lineup.

Betting Indicators:

• Nashville's Struggles: The Predators have lost eight straight games, showing signs of fatigue and frustration.

• Injury Impact: Key absences include Ryan O'Reilly and Roman Josi, significantly weakening both offense and defense.

• Home Ice Advantage: Dallas has won four straight at home and thrives in familiar surroundings.

• Head-to-Head: The Stars defeated the Predators 4-3 in Nashville earlier this season.

Final Prediction:

The Stars should dominate this matchup given Nashville’s injury issues and lack of momentum. Dallas has the depth to control the game, and with Nashville missing key players, the Stars should win comfortably.

Final Score Prediction: Stars 4, Predators 1