Tonight’s NCAAF Spotlight: Why Tulane/Memphis is Our Sole Pick
Tonight's betting landscape is a bit sparse, but that doesn't mean we're not paying attention. While we don't bet on NHL or NBA preseason games, rest assured we're keeping a close eye on them to formulate future betting hypotheses. With MLB on a short break as they transition to the League Championship Series, we're left with limited NCAAF options. But limited doesn't mean non-existent. We've got one solid pick that meets our disciplined, methodical, and tried-and-true approach here at BrownBagBets.
The Pick: Tulane @ Memphis, 7PM Kickoff on ESPN. Memphis +5 at 5% Bankroll
Why Memphis +5? Here's why:
Line Movement: The line opened at Memphis +3 and has moved to +5. Despite heavy public backing on Memphis, the line has moved in the opposite direction, often indicating sharp money sees value on Memphis.
Historical Trend: The home team has won every matchup between these two teams since 2016.
Rushing Game: Memphis boasts the leading rushing RB in the AAC, Blake Watson, while Tulane allows an average of 86.2 rushing yards per game.
Game Projection: We don't rely on a single model. We access multiple premium projection services, so you don't have to. We then compile, manage sentiment, and assess success rates to identify the most likely outcomes. Our comprehensive analysis suggests this game should be a pick-em, pointing to the potential for Memphis to win outright.
Quarterback Play: Tulane's QB, Michael Pratt, has been struggling since his return two games ago.
Defensive Matchup: Tulane struggles to run the ball, and Memphis has an NFL-caliber secondary ready to capitalize on that.
We understand the itch to bet more, especially on a night like this. But remember, it's not about quantity; it's about quality. Our approach is designed to minimize both acute and long-term risk, allowing us to rebound even after a few bumps in the road. Stick with us, and you'll see why our methodical approach is the way to go for sustained success.
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