NCAAF Extravaganza: 10+Handpicked Games for October 14, 2023

Welcome to another action-packed Saturday of college football, brought to you by the dedicated team at BrownBagBets. We pride ourselves on the meticulous research and analysis that goes into each and every one of our picks. From combing through subscription sites and expert analyses so you don’t have waste your time nor pay for it, to leveraging our own proprietary betting systems, we leave no stone unturned in our quest to provide you with the most reliable betting guidance.

As we enter today's slate of games, we're sitting comfortably at 103% of our bankroll. That's right—after 13 consecutive days of betting, following our volume betting approach and per-game amount recommendations, you'd not only be up overall but also wouldn't have had to deposit a single dollar into your betting account. And let's not forget the icing on the cake: if you started October with a $1,000 bankroll, you'd have racked up over 300 tier credits on your preferred betting app—essentially gaining valuable rewards without losing a dime. The larger your bankroll, the more credits you're accumulating!

While today's NCAAF schedule is brimming with high-profile matchups, we're focusing our attention on games that meet our stringent confidence criteria. You won't find us making calls on many of the marquee games like Texas A&M @ #19 Tennessee or #18 UCLA @ #15 Oregon State, among others. However, keep an eye out for our special BrownBag Parlay play tied to a couple of the day's most exciting potential matchups.

Pick #1: Indiana @ Michigan - Under 46.5 (5% Bankroll Wager)

Kickoff Time:12 PM ET

Channel: Fox

We're doubling down on a system that paid dividends during Thursday night's NFL game featuring the Chiefs. In NCAAF games where the average wind speed at kickoff ranges between 13 mph and 34 mph, the under hits at a rate of 59%. Today's weather forecast for Ann Arbor, Michigan, fits right into this system, making it a compelling reason to go with the under.

But that's not the only reason we're confident in this pick. Michigan has been a fortress for under bettors, especially when playing at home. In their last 14 home games, the under has gone an astonishing 13-0-1.

And let's talk about Michigan's defense. They're allowing a meager 6.7 points per game on average. No, you're not misreading that; it's a real stat. Now, add Indiana's lackluster offense to the mix, and you've got a recipe for a low-scoring game.

With multiple factors aligning perfectly, from weather conditions to historical trends and defensive prowess, we're confident in recommending a 5% bankroll wager on the under 46.5 for this matchup.

Pick #2: Michigan State @ Rutgers, 12 PM ET, BigTen Network

Pick: Rutgers -3.5 | Wager: 4% of Bankroll

Sometimes, sentiment and trends tell a story that's too compelling to ignore. That's the case with this matchup. Since the departure of their head coach Mel Tucker, Michigan State seems to have mentally checked out for the season. They're 0-3 straight up and 0-2-1 against the spread (ATS) since he left. Contrast that with Rutgers, who are an impressive 5-0-1 ATS this year. When a team with such a strong ATS record meets a slumping opponent, we see it as a prime betting opportunity. This one's pretty straightforward for us: take Rutgers to cover.

Pick #3: Syracuse @ Florida State University, 12 PM ET, ABC

Pick: Over 53.5 | Wager: 4% of Bankroll

When it comes to over/under bets, context is key. On the surface, Syracuse's 1-5 record with the over might make you hesitant. But dig a little deeper, and you'll find that three of those games missed the over by just a single point. Now, consider FSU's offense, which ranks 20th in the nation in yards per play and has put up a whopping 105 points over their last two games. They're 4-1 in hitting the over this season. Add to that a Florida State defense that ranks 73rd in yards per play allowed and gives up over 21 points per game. We're confident that FSU will score plenty, and Syracuse will contribute enough to hit the over.

Pick #4: BrownBag Special ML Parlay

Pick: James Madison ML (Georgia Southern @ James Madison, 12 PM ET, ESPN2) Parlayed with Buffalo ML (Bowling Green State @ Buffalo, 3:30 PM ET, ESPN+) | Wager: 3% of Bankroll

Our BB special ML parlays are a staple in the BrownBagBets community, and for good reason. They offer excellent value when we identify two favorites with relatively small lines. First up, we have James Madison, a team that Vegas just can't seem to get right. They're 5-0 and coming off a bye week, ready to dive into the meat of their Sun Belt schedule. Plus, they're looking for revenge after last year's loss to Georgia Southern.

Then we have Buffalo, who are hosting their homecoming game. Our data shows a high return on investment for homecoming teams that are favorites by 4 points or less. The model sites we subscribe to (so you don't have to) have Buffalo favored by nearly 5 points. We're taking the safer money line here, which gets juiced to +140 after James Madison secures their win.

Pick #5: Navy @ Charlotte

Pick: Under 45 | 2 PM ET, ESPN+ | Wager: 5% of Bankroll

Both Navy and Charlotte have a penchant for running the ball, which naturally eats up the clock and limits scoring opportunities. Navy's ground-and-pound approach is well-known, but Charlotte also leans heavily on the run, doing so just under 60% of the time. This ranks them 36th in the nation in run-play percentage.

But here's the kicker that makes us love this under even more: both teams are among the slowest in the nation when it comes to tempo. Charlotte ranks #117, taking 30 seconds between each play, while Navy is even slower at 30.5 seconds, ranking them #123. This slow pace should contribute to a lower-scoring game, making the under a strong play in our book.

Pick #7: Florida Atlantic University @ S. Florida

Pick: S. Florida -2.5 | 3:30 PM ET, ESPN2 | Wager: 4% of Bankroll

This is a new rivalry in the making, as both teams are vying for in-state recruits. What has us excited about this pick is the emergence of S. Florida's freshman QB, Byrum Brown. Over his last three games, he's led his team to scores of 42, 44, and 35 points. His stats are eye-popping: 72 completions on 106 attempts for 1,033 yards, 7 TDs, and just 2 INTs.

Contrast that with FAU, who have only managed to score 61 points over their last four games. They're a different team without their starting QB, who's out with an ACL injury. Given these factors, we're confident in taking S. Florida to cover the small spread.

Pick #8: Two-Team Parlay - Oregon and USC

Pick: #8 Oregon +3.5 @ #7 Washington, 3:30 PM ET, ABC | #10 USC +3.5 @ #21 Notre Dame, 7:30 PM ET, NBC | Parlay Bankroll Wager: 3%

Let's be upfront: this is a parlay we're excited about, but it's also a bit of a gamble. We're leaning into the hype of the day's biggest matchups. First off, we want action on these games; it's as simple as that. Secondly, we've got insights from key professional handicappers who are backing both of these underdogs not just to cover, but to win outright.

For the Oregon vs. Washington game, the Ducks are out for revenge from last year. Oregon's defense, particularly their back seven, ranks as the 15th best coverage unit in the FBS. This could pose a problem for a Washington team that likes to air it out over 60% of the time.

As for USC vs. Notre Dame, we're betting on Caleb Williams, arguably the best player in college football right now. USC narrowly escaped defeat against Arizona, but we believe they have the firepower to take down Notre Dame. The Fighting Irish may still be reeling from their last-second loss to Ohio State, and we're not convinced they've fully recovered.

Pick #9: Ohio @ N. Illinois

Pick: N. Illinois +6, 4 PM ET, ESPNU | Bankroll Wager: 4%

N. Illinois has been a consistent performer for us this season, contributing to more of our wins than any other college football team. They've covered the spread in their last two games, and we're confident they'll do it again. Michigan State transfer QB Rocky Lombardi has been showing his potential recently, and we believe he'll continue to do so against Ohio.

Furthermore, multiple models that we follow—and pay for, so you don't have to—indicate that this should be a close game, likely decided by less than one score. Given that, we see tremendous value in taking N. Illinois with the points here.

Pick #10: Louisville @ Pittsburgh

Pick: Pittsburgh +7.5, 6:30 PM ET, CW Network | Bankroll Wager: 6%

We're putting a hefty 6% of our bankroll on this one, and for good reason. The hottest professional handicapper we subscribe to has picked this game, and that expert is currently boasting an impressive 14-2-2 record in NCAAF picks this season. Pittsburgh is coming off a bye week, which only adds to our confidence in this pick.

The recent quarterback switch to Christian Veilleux, a Penn State transfer, is expected to inject some much-needed life into Pittsburgh's offense. We're also seeing sharp money coming in on Pittsburgh, which isn't surprising given the backing from a high-value professional capper. Additionally, our betting system that recommends fading the favorite after they've won outright as an underdog in a high TV ratings game also supports this pick.

Pick #11: Auburn @ LSU

Pick: LSU -10.5, 7 PM ET, ESPN | Bankroll Wager: 5%

LSU has been on an upward trajectory, improving their performance with each game. In their last three matchups, they've been offensively dominant, averaging 6 yards per rush and over 10 yards per pass. This week, they face an Auburn team that averages 29 points per game. While that might not seem like a significant drop from the 33, 41, and 31 points LSU's defense has recently faced, that small difference is more telling than it appears.

When you dig into the individual game statistics, this difference becomes an indicator of the quality of play and the caliber of the team. We're confident that LSU will continue their positive trend and cover the spread, making this a solid pick for us.

Closing Thoughts

What an exciting slate of games we have for today! From weather-based system plays to sharp money indicators and expert handicapper insights, we've left no stone unturned in our quest to provide you with the most well-researched and potentially profitable picks. At BrownBagBets, we pride ourselves on the rigorous methodology we employ, which includes leveraging subscription site guidance, expert analysis, and our own proprietary betting systems.

While today's slate features a number of high-profile matchups, we've focused on the games that meet our stringent criteria for confidence. So, buckle up and get ready for a thrilling day of NCAAF action. As always, bet responsibly and let's bag those wins!

Good luck, and may the odds be ever in your favor!