Time Running Out - Three Days Left: EPL, NFL, & More Betting Action

Yesterday’s Results – Even Day, All Eyes on the Finish Line:

With just three betting days left in December, yesterday was a push—essentially an even day across the board. While it didn’t hurt us, it also didn’t bring us closer to our goal of turning December green. That means the stakes are high, and it’s now or never.

Today, we’re leaving nothing on the table. It’s a massive day of sports betting, and we’re going all in with a packed slate of EPL matches, NFL, NCAAB, NHL, and NBA. The opportunities are there, and so is our focus.

All In for the Final Push:

This is the time to trust the process and play to win. The BrownBagBets philosophy is built for moments like this—disciplined, data-driven, and ready to attack high-value plays across a wide board.

While December hasn’t been easy, we’re embracing the challenge and pushing hard in these final days. Today’s slate is stacked, and we’re here to make every play count. It’s all about execution, focus, and turning the corner before the month ends.

Today’s Slate – A Massive Day of Action:

• EPL Matches:

  • A loaded day of Premier League matchups gives us plenty of opportunities to find value in the soccer world.

• NFL Action:

  • With just days left in the regular season, NFL provides a chance to dig into sides, totals, and props for today’s games.

• NCAAB, NHL, and NBA:

  • Across these three leagues, we’ve got volume, indicators, and a chance to attack matchups that align with our confidence levels.

• No Bowl Games Today:

  • While college football is quiet, the other sports more than make up for the action.

Final Thought – Three Days to Win December:

It’s crunch time. With only three betting days left in December, every play matters more than ever. The opportunities today are massive, and we’re ready to lean into EPL, NFL, NCAAB, NHL, and NBA with the focus and strategy that defines BrownBagBets. Let’s dig deep, execute with precision, and make today the day we start flipping December back to green.

English Premier League - Same Game Parlay: Manchester City at Leicester City

Pick: Manchester City ML + over 2.5 Goals Scored / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Manchester City has historically dominated Leicester City, winning the last four matchups convincingly. Both teams are in poor defensive form, but City’s quality in attack remains undeniable. After missing a golden opportunity against Everton, City is unlikely to falter again, especially against a Leicester side fighting relegation. The open nature of Leicester’s play often leads to high-scoring encounters.

Betting Indicators

• Manchester City has averaged 2.6 goals in their last five matches against Leicester.

• Leicester’s defense has conceded an average of 2.2 goals per game this season.

Projection:
Manchester City bounces back with a commanding performance. Final score: Manchester City 3, Leicester City 1.

English Premier League: Southampton at Crystal Palace

Pick: Crystal Palace ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Southampton has struggled throughout the season and currently sits at the bottom of the league. Palace, on the other hand, has shown consistency in this matchup, winning four consecutive games against the Saints. Aside from a heavy loss to Arsenal, Palace has played well recently, leveraging their home advantage effectively. Southampton’s inability to defend consistently makes them vulnerable.

Betting Indicators

• Crystal Palace has covered the spread in three of the last four wins against Southampton.

• Southampton’s goal differential is the worst in the league at -18.

Projection:
Palace takes control early and secures a comfortable win. Final score: Crystal Palace 2, Southampton 0.

English Premier League: Nottingham Forest at Everton

Pick: Everton - Draw No Bet / Wager: 2%

Analysis

While Nottingham Forest has shown improvement in recent weeks, this game feels like a potential trap. With Wolves and Liverpool on the horizon, Forest may overlook Everton, who has quietly been a covering machine. Everton has drawn three straight matches and has shown resilience against stronger opponents, making the draw no bet option a safer play.

Betting Indicators

• Everton has covered the spread in their last four matches.

• Nottingham Forest’s last five matches have averaged 2.4 goals, leaning toward lower-scoring games.

Projection:
Everton grinds out a result, taking advantage of Forest’s potential focus on upcoming fixtures. Final score: Everton 1, Nottingham Forest 0.

English Premier League: Bournemouth at Fulham

Pick: Fulham -0.5 @ +130 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Bournemouth has been inconsistent this season, alternating between impressive performances and lackluster showings. Fulham, however, has been in strong form, covering four of their last five spreads. Craven Cottage provides a notable home-field advantage, and Bournemouth’s defensive lapses could be costly against Fulham’s balanced attack.

Betting Indicators

• Fulham has averaged 1.8 goals per game at home this season.

• Bournemouth has allowed an average of 2.1 goals in their last five away matches.

Projection:
Fulham uses home-field advantage to secure a hard-fought win. Final score: Fulham 2, Bournemouth 1.

English Premier League: Wolves at Tottenham

Pick: Draw @ +400 / Wager: 1%

Analysis

While draws are often avoided, the value at +400 is too enticing to ignore in this matchup. Wolves have surprisingly won four of the last five meetings against Tottenham, but a fifth victory seems unlikely. Tottenham’s injury issues, combined with their poor form, make a draw a realistic outcome. Both teams may struggle to find the decisive edge.

Betting Indicators

• Tottenham has lost four of their last five league matches.

• Wolves’ defense has allowed fewer than 1.5 goals in four of their last five matches.

Projection:
A closely contested game ends in a stalemate. Final score: Wolves 1, Tottenham 1.

English Premier League: Liverpool at West Ham United

Pick: West Ham +1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

West Ham has shown resilience this season, including a 2-0 win over Newcastle and a 1-1 draw with Brighton. Liverpool’s ability to score is unquestionable, but their defensive frailties have been exposed, conceding an average of two goals per game over their last five matches. This matchup last season ended in a draw, further suggesting a close game.

Betting Indicators

• Liverpool has failed to cover the spread in three of their last five matches.

• West Ham has covered in four of their last six matches as underdogs.

Projection:
West Ham keeps it competitive, leveraging Liverpool’s defensive vulnerabilities. Final score: Liverpool 2, West Ham 2.

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants

Pick: Colts -7 / Wager: 4%
Pick: Anthony Richardson Anytime TD / Wager: 2%

Anthony Richardson’s Red Zone Impact

We’re sticking with Anthony Richardson in this spot as he continues to showcase his potential as a dual-threat quarterback. His ability to power the run game, especially in red zone situations, has been a key factor for the Colts’ offense. Richardson has scored a rushing TD in three straight games and four of his last five, and the Giants’ defense is particularly vulnerable against scrambling QBs. While Jonathan Taylor may take some red zone carries, Richardson’s knack for finishing drives makes him a strong bet to find the end zone again.

Giants’ Historic Struggles

The Giants are in the midst of their worst ATS season in franchise history, going 4-11 ATS in 2024. They’ve lost ten consecutive games outright, covering just once in that span (1-9 ATS). This is the longest losing streak in franchise history, and their performance against the spread has been equally dismal. Over the past decade, teams on ten-game losing streaks are 4-10 ATS when playing at home, a trend that further highlights the Giants’ struggles.

Colts’ Opportunity to Dominate

The Colts have the tools to capitalize on the Giants’ woes. With a mobile quarterback in Richardson and a solid run game, Indianapolis can exploit New York’s tepid run defense. The Giants’ inability to contain dual-threat QBs adds another layer of confidence in both the spread and Richardson’s anytime TD prop.

Projection:
The Colts control the game from start to finish, with Richardson leading the charge. Final score projection: Colts 28, Giants 17.

NFL: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills

Pick: James Cook over 79.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards / Wager: 4%
Pick: Jets +10 / Wager: 3%

James Cook’s Versatility and Opportunity

James Cook has surpassed this combined yardage mark in four of his last seven AFC East matchups, coming close (71 yards) in another. The Bills aren’t expected to take many deep shots in this game, which bodes well for Cook’s workload. With a likely 20-touch workload in a game that should remain close, Cook has already shown he can excel against the Jets, surpassing 100 scrimmage yards against a stronger version of this defense last season. Buffalo’s limited stakes in this game also point to a heavier reliance on the run and short-yardage plays.

Jets’ Ability to Keep It Close

The Jets have a history of playing the Bills tough, going 5-5 ATS in their last 10 meetings and losing by just 3 points in their first matchup this season. The Bills, who are just 4-3 ATS at home this year, have won three of their division games by only 3 points each. Quarterback Josh Allen has struggled as a big favorite, going 0-8 ATS in his last eight games as a favorite of 10 or more, failing to cover by an average of 8.06 points. Within the division, Allen’s record as a double-digit favorite is just 2-5-1 ATS.

Game Script Expectations

With the Chiefs having already clinched the top seed, the Bills have little at stake, and their sluggish performance last week could carry over. The Jets’ defense and ability to grind out close games make this an ideal spot for them to cover the spread. Expect a low-scoring, ground-heavy game, with the Bills’ run defense potentially showing vulnerabilities and giving Cook a strong opportunity to shine.

Projection:
The Jets keep this game close with their defense and ground attack, while Cook delivers a strong performance in total yardage. Final score projection: Bills 20, Jets 14.

NFL: Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: Over 48 / Wager: 3%

Division Game Trends Favoring the Over

The NFC South has produced high-scoring matchups, and this game should be no exception. All four of Tampa Bay’s division games this season have totaled at least 49 points, averaging 62.5 per game. Similarly, four of Carolina’s five division games have hit 49 or more, with an average of 55 points. Their first meeting this year totaled 49 points, reinforcing the trend of high-scoring divisional clashes.

Offensive Factors and Defensive Weaknesses

While Baker Mayfield has struggled against Carolina’s defense, the Buccaneers have been able to run effectively against the Panthers this season. Tampa Bay’s defense, on the other hand, continues to show vulnerabilities, leading to shootout potential. The Buccaneers are 9-3 to the over in their last 12 games, and the Panthers are 6-2 to the over in their last eight. Both teams are expected to exploit each other’s defensive flaws.

Historical Trends Support the Over

The last five meetings between these two teams have gone over the total, and seven of their last ten matchups have followed suit. With desperation from Tampa Bay and Carolina’s ability to keep pace in high-scoring games, this matchup is primed for another high total.

Projection:
Expect another NFC South shootout, with both offenses capitalizing on defensive struggles. Final score projection: Buccaneers 31, Panthers 27.

NFL: Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles

Pick: Saquon Barkley over 111.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3%
Pick: Cowboys +8 / Wager: 3%

Saquon Barkley’s Historic Chase

Saquon Barkley is only 267 yards shy of Eric Dickerson’s 40-year-old record of 2,105 rushing yards in a season. With Philadelphia’s uncertain quarterback situation, expect the Giants to lean heavily on Barkley, who could see up to 25 carries against one of the NFL’s worst rushing defenses. Barkley has consistently delivered in high-volume situations, and this matchup is primed for another huge performance. This prop is worth laddering up to 150 yards given the circumstances.

Cowboys’ Resilience and Eagles’ Uncertainty

The Eagles face significant uncertainty with Jalen Hurts in concussion protocol and Kenny Pickett managing a rib injury. If Hurts plays, the line could shift to Eagles -11, but if it’s Pickett, the spread likely adjusts to Eagles -6 or even lower with McKee at QB. The Cowboys have played tough down the stretch, winning four of their last five games, and Cooper Rush has improved significantly since his earlier struggles against Philadelphia. Dallas’ strong recent form and the Eagles’ late-season inconsistencies make this a valuable play.

Key Trends and Historical Context

• Jalen Hurts as a Big Favorite: Hurts has failed to cover six straight games as a favorite of 9+ points, falling short by an average of 10.75 points.

• Eagles at Home: Philadelphia is just 3-4 ATS at home this season and 2-7 ATS in their last nine home games, all with Hurts at QB.

• Dallas on the Road: The Cowboys are covering by an average of 8 points per game on the road and have covered in four of their last five games. They are 3-1 within the division and thrive in the spoiler role.

Projection:
Barkley has another monster game, powering past the 111.5-yard mark. Meanwhile, the Cowboys keep the game close, leveraging their strong recent form and the Eagles’ late-season struggles. Final score projection: Eagles 24, Cowboys 20.

NFL 2 Team ML Parlay: Las Vegas Raiders ML + Tennessee Titans ML @ +242

Pick: Raiders ML + Titans ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Leg 1: Raiders ML

While betting on the Raiders as road favorites isn’t ideal, the Saints’ current situation makes this a prime spot to fade them. Saints QB Spencer Rattler has struggled, and with Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, and two starting offensive linemen out, their offense looks depleted. The Raiders’ defense, grading out as middle of the pack, should have enough to stifle New Orleans, who just got shut out. Meanwhile, Aidan O’Connell has shown flashes of competence under center, and head coach Antonio Pierce has emphasized that the team is playing to win, not tank for draft position.

Leg 2: Titans ML

The Titans get a slight upgrade with veteran Mason Rudolph stepping in at QB. Despite a dreadful 3-12 SU and 2-13 ATS record, Tennessee’s defense has remained solid and should limit Jaguars QB Mac Jones, who has thrown seven interceptions in six starts. Even without Tony Pollard, RB Tyjae Spears has proven to be an effective dual-threat option, scoring twice last week. The Jaguars’ inconsistency and Jones’ turnover-prone tendencies make Tennessee a strong value play as underdogs.

Betting Indicators

• The Saints were shut out in their last game and are missing multiple key offensive players.

• Raiders are 2-1 SU under Antonio Pierce, showing renewed effort and focus.

• Titans’ defense ranks top 10 in fewest yards allowed per play.

• Jaguars QB Mac Jones has thrown 7 interceptions in 6 starts, leading to multiple losses.

Projection:
The Raiders handle the shorthanded Saints in a grind-it-out victory, while the Titans’ defense and Spears’ dynamic play secure a narrow win over Jacksonville. Final score projections: Raiders 21, Saints 13; Titans 20, Jaguars 17.

NFL: Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns

Pick: Under 34.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

NFL totals rarely drop as low as 34.5, but in this case, the line reflects the realities of the matchup. Miami is likely starting Tyler Huntley at quarterback, while Cleveland counters with Dorian Thompson-Robinson. Neither quarterback has shown the ability to lead a productive offense, with the Dolphins scoring 12, 15, and 10 points in Huntley’s three appearances. Meanwhile, the Browns have managed just 14, 7, and 6 points in their last three outings, with Thompson-Robinson under center for the most recent game.

The Browns’ offense is further hampered by injuries, with key contributors like TE David Njoku, WR Cedric Tillman, and RB Nick Chubb unavailable. Additionally, the predicted weather conditions—featuring rain and high winds—will make moving the ball even more difficult for two already struggling offenses. Notably, this line opened at 44.5, illustrating how sharp action has brought it to its current level.

Betting Indicators

• The Dolphins are averaging 12.3 points per game in Huntley’s starts.

• The Browns have averaged just 9 points per game over their last three outings.

• Cleveland has failed to reach 20 points in 5 of its last 6 games.

• The total has dropped by 10 points from its opening line due to sharp action.

Projection:
Both teams struggle to find the end zone in a game dominated by defensive play and adverse weather conditions. Final score projection: Dolphins 13, Browns 10.

NFL: Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Packers ML / Wager: 4%
Pick: Jordan Love over 1.5 Passing TDs / Wager: 3%
Pick: Jayden Reed over 50.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Packers ML

Green Bay has significant advantages in this matchup, including better net yards per play on both offense and defense, as well as a superior sack differential (+1.8 vs. -0.2). This will be the Vikings’ 11th consecutive game without a bye, potentially neutralizing the Packers’ shorter rest period. While Minnesota won the earlier meeting in a close 31-29 game, Green Bay outgained them 465-379. With Jordan Love finding his rhythm and the Packers’ defense improving, the road team is well-positioned to take the victory.

Jordan Love over 1.5 Passing TDs

Jordan Love has been highly productive against the Vikings, posting 4 TD and 3 TD performances in his last two meetings. Even against Brian Flores’ aggressive blitz packages, Love has shown poise and the ability to exploit deep shots. With this game expected to be high-scoring, Love’s involvement in the red zone and ability to generate explosive plays make this prop appealing.

Jayden Reed over 50.5 Receiving Yards

Jayden Reed torched the Vikings in their first meeting, catching seven of eight targets for 139 yards. With Christian Watson (knee) questionable and missing practice all week, Reed should see an increased target share. Coming off a 76-yard performance against the Saints, Reed has a favorable matchup against Vikings slot corner Byron Murphy and will likely play a prominent role in Green Bay’s passing attack.

Betting Indicators

• Green Bay has a better net yards per play differential and sack differential than Minnesota.

• Jordan Love has 7 passing TDs in his last two games against the Vikings.

• Jayden Reed has exceeded this yardage total in two straight games, including a 139-yard outing vs. Minnesota earlier this season.

• Minnesota is playing its 11th straight game without a bye, which could contribute to fatigue.

Projection:
The Packers leverage their defensive improvements and Love’s composure to edge out a close win, with Reed playing a key role in the passing game. Final score projection: Packers 27, Vikings 23.

NCAAB: Southern Illinois at Northern Iowa

Pick: Northern Iowa -10.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Northern Iowa under Ben Jacobson continues to thrive against weaker competition, demonstrating the ability to dominate with impressive win margins of 42, 19, 26, 27, 44, 20, and 28 points this season. The Panthers have covered their last five games as favorites by significant spreads, showcasing their capability to bring out the hammer. Their balanced lineup features four double-digit scorers, including standout performances from 6-6 wing Tytan Anderson (13.3 ppg) and 6-11 center Jacob Hutson, who recently had three straight 20+ point games. Virginia transfer Leon Bond III adds another dimension, dropping 37 points against Montana on December 16.

Southern Illinois, on the other hand, appears vulnerable, having suffered double-digit losses to Bradley and High Point. With just one spread cover in their last seven games (1-5-1), the Salukis face a steep challenge against a surging UNI squad.

Betting Indicators

• Northern Iowa has covered its last five games as favorites, with margins of 20+ points in each cover.

• Jacob Hutson is averaging 20+ points over his recent hot streak.

• Southern Illinois is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven games, including two double-digit losses.

Projection:
Northern Iowa dominates from the opening tip, leveraging their balanced attack and depth to secure a comfortable win. Final score projection: Northern Iowa 82, Southern Illinois 65.

NCAAB: Missouri State (MO St.) at Evansville

Pick: MO St. -4.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Evansville’s second-year head coach David Ragland saw significant improvement last season with the help of transfers, but this year’s roster reset has been less successful. The Purple Aces have lost nine of their first 12 games, suffering several blowout defeats. Their offense has been a major liability, averaging just 65 points per game while shooting an abysmal 28% from beyond the arc. They’ve also failed to cover the spread in their last four games.

Missouri State, led by Cuonzo Martin in his return season, has navigated the transfer portal more effectively. Additions like Dez White (18.3 ppg) and Vincent Brady II (13.6 ppg) have revitalized their offense, while Michael Osei-Bonsu (10.3 ppg, 7.5 rpg) provides physicality in the paint. The Bears have covered seven of their last 10 games, showcasing consistency against the spread.

Betting Indicators

• Evansville has lost four straight games against the spread.

• Missouri State has covered 7 of its last 10 games.

• Evansville averages only 65 points per game and shoots 28% from three-point range.

Projection:
Missouri State capitalizes on Evansville’s struggles and dominates on both ends of the floor. Final score projection: Missouri State 74, Evansville 64.

NCAAB: Illinois-Chicago at Illinois State

Pick: Illinois State -4.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Illinois State has made noticeable improvements this season, and the market doesn’t seem to have fully adjusted yet. The Redbirds are on a roll, covering 8 of their last 9 games against the spread. Their proficiency from beyond the arc makes them one of the top three-point shooting teams in the country, which is a critical advantage in this matchup. Illinois-Chicago struggles mightily on defense, ranking 342nd in three-point percentage defense. This glaring weakness should give Illinois State plenty of open looks and the opportunity to exploit mismatches on Sunday.

Betting Indicators

• Illinois State is 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.

• Illinois State ranks among the top teams nationally in three-point shooting percentage.

• Illinois-Chicago ranks 342nd in three-point percentage defense, one of the worst in the country.

Projection:
Illinois State’s shooting prowess and Illinois-Chicago’s defensive struggles lead to a decisive Redbirds victory. Final score projection: Illinois State 78, Illinois-Chicago 70.

NHL: Buffalo Sabres at St. Louis Blues

Pick: Under 5.5 @ +100 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Despite a wild 7-4 shootout against the Predators on Friday, the Blues are expected to return to their typical low-scoring ways. Under new coach Jim Montgomery, St. Louis has shown defensive discipline, ranking near the top of the league defensively since late November. Before the Nashville game, the Blues had gone under the total in six straight contests. Jordan Binnington, who recorded a shutout against the Red Wings last Monday, returns to the net, further solidifying their defensive outlook.

Buffalo has shown recent signs of life, snapping a 13-game losing streak with back-to-back wins. Goalie Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen was instrumental in those victories, stopping 42 of 45 shots. Both teams have strong goaltending performances to lean on, setting up a likely return to a defensive battle.

Betting Indicators

• The Blues went under in six consecutive games before the Nashville matchup.

• Jordan Binnington is coming off a shutout performance.

• Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen has saved 42 of 45 shots in Buffalo’s last two games.

Projection:
A defensive, tightly contested game with limited scoring opportunities. Final score projection: Blues 3, Sabres 1.

NBA: Brooklyn Nets at Orlando Magic

Pick: Under 204.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Orlando continues to struggle offensively with top scorers Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and key rotation player Mo Wagner sidelined. The Magic have consistently failed to reach 100 points in recent games, fighting to stay competitive while shorthanded. Brooklyn has faced its own challenges with Cam Thomas out for an extended period, though his return on Sunday remains uncertain in terms of immediate impact. The Nets have already played Orlando three times this season, never scoring more than 101 points, reinforcing the low-scoring trend for both teams.

Betting Indicators

• Orlando has averaged under 100 points in its last five games.

• Brooklyn has scored 101 points or fewer in three matchups against Orlando this season.

• Cam Thomas is returning after a month but may be limited.

Projection:
A defensive battle keeps the total well under the mark. Final score projection: Nets 98, Magic 94.

NBA: Miami Heat at Houston Rockets

Pick: Rockets -8.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Jamie Jacques under 12.5 Points / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Rockets -8.5

Houston has been dominant at home, carrying over last season’s strong ATS performance. The Rockets are 10-5 ATS at home this year and face a Heat team in turmoil. Miami is just 6-9 ATS on the road this season and has struggled amid Jimmy Butler’s formal trade request. Houston’s defense has been outstanding, making them a tough matchup for the inconsistent Heat.

Jamie Jacques Under 12.5 Points

Jacques has gone under this total in eight of his last ten games. Facing Houston’s stout defense, particularly at home, adds another layer of difficulty for the Heat’s supporting cast. Jacques’ opportunities could be further limited as Miami’s offensive struggles persist.

Betting Indicators

• Houston is 10-5 ATS at home this season and had a strong home ATS record last year.

• Miami is 6-9 ATS on the road and has failed to find rhythm amid roster turmoil.

• Jacques has gone under 12.5 points in 8 of his last 10 games.

Projection:
The Rockets maintain control throughout, and Jacques struggles to find his offensive footing. Final score projection: Rockets 112, Heat 98.