Looking Ahead to 2025: A New Chapter for BrownBagBets

A Tough December, but Our Greatest Year Awaits:

Let’s start with the truth—December has been a grind. Losses sting, no matter how long you’ve been in this game, and right now, it’s easy to feel weighed down. But here’s another truth: this isn’t the story of 2024.

Take a step back and look at what we’ve accomplished. In March, we didn’t just win—we dominated, setting the tone for an incredible year. August and October? Those weren’t just profitable months—they were pillars of success, showcasing the power of our system and discipline. When we look at the year as a whole, there’s no question: we made money, we grew stronger, and we proved again why this process works.

Losses Teach, Wins Build Confidence:

Every setback carries a lesson, and December’s challenges are no exception. These losses don’t define us—they sharpen us. They force us to reexamine, refine, and double down on what works.

As a community, we’ve built something special. BrownBagBets isn’t about chasing perfection; it’s about creating consistency, resilience, and a pathway to passive income. Losses remind us why discipline matters. Wins show us what’s possible when we stick to the plan. And through it all, we’re learning, growing, and preparing for what’s next.

Final Thought – A New Year of Possibilities:

In two days, we get to turn the page and start a new chapter. 2025 is brimming with opportunity—a chance to take everything we’ve learned this year and use it to climb even higher. December’s losses are just part of the story—a difficult chapter, sure, but one that will make the victories ahead even sweeter.

Here’s what matters: we’ve proven we can win. We’ve built a system, a community, and a philosophy that work. And now, with the lessons December has given us, we’re positioned to enter 2025 stronger, smarter, and more determined than ever.

This isn’t the end—it’s the beginning of something even greater. Let’s dig deep, finish the year with pride, and attack the next with everything we’ve got. The best is yet to come.

English Premier League: Aston Villa at Brighton

Pick: Over 2.5 Goals / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Both teams are in strong form, with four of their last five meetings surpassing the 2.5 goal mark. Aston Villa has been especially consistent offensively, currently riding a four-match streak where games have gone over 2.5 goals. Brighton’s open style of play complements Villa’s aggressive attack, making this a likely high-scoring affair.

Betting Indicators

• 4 of the last 5 head-to-head meetings have gone over 2.5 goals.

• Aston Villa is on a 4-match streak of games exceeding 2.5 goals.

Projection:
Expect both teams to find the back of the net early, pushing this game well over the total. Final score projection: Aston Villa 2, Brighton 2.

English Premier League: Chelsea at Ipswich Town

Pick: Chelsea -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Chelsea remains one of the top-performing teams in the league, currently 4th in the standings and boasting the best away record in terms of points and goals. Despite recent setbacks, including a draw with Everton and a loss to Fulham, Chelsea’s offensive depth and overall quality make them the clear favorites. Ipswich Town, sitting 19th in the league, has lost five of their last six matches and continues to struggle with scoring. This is a prime bounce-back spot for Chelsea to assert their dominance.

Betting Indicators

• Chelsea is 5-3-1 ATS on the road this season.

• Ipswich has lost five of their last six games and sits in the relegation zone.

Projection:
Chelsea dominates on the road, capitalizing on Ipswich’s defensive issues. Final score projection: Chelsea 3, Ipswich 0.

English Premier League: Newcastle United at Manchester United

Pick: Newcastle ML @ +160 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Manchester United is in disarray, losing three consecutive matches, including a 2-0 defeat to Wolverhampton on Boxing Day. They currently sit 14th in the league, a far cry from their usual standards. The suspensions of Bruno Fernandes and Manuel Ugarte further weaken their lineup. In contrast, Newcastle is surging, having won four straight matches across all competitions and keeping clean sheets in their last three Premier League games. The value on Newcastle as slight underdogs, even at Old Trafford, is too good to pass up.

Betting Indicators

• Manchester United has lost three straight matches and sits 14th in the league.

• Newcastle has not conceded a goal in their last three Premier League games.

• Newcastle is riding a four-match winning streak across all competitions.

Projection:
Newcastle continues their strong form, taking advantage of Manchester United’s vulnerabilities. Final score projection: Newcastle 2, Manchester United 1.

NFL: Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers

Pick: Lions -3.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Motivation is the key difference in this matchup. The Lions are playing for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, while the 49ers have been eliminated from postseason contention and are riddled with injuries. San Francisco has struggled mightily, losing five of their last six games and failing to cover the spread in six of their last seven. Detroit, on the other hand, has been dominant on the road, boasting a perfect 7-0 record away from Ford Field this season.

Last year, the Lions had the 49ers on the ropes with a 24-7 halftime lead in a playoff game but suffered a heartbreaking 34-31 loss. This year, Dan Campbell’s squad is determined to finish strong and erase last season’s disappointment. San Francisco’s offense has sputtered behind Brock Purdy, who has struggled at home all season. Meanwhile, Detroit has been dominant against the NFC West, winning all three matchups by at least six points.

Betting Indicators

• Lions are 7-0 on the road this season.

• Detroit has covered 7 of 10 games outside the NFC North, with an average cover margin of +9.6 PPG.

• 49ers are 1-8 ATS vs. winning teams, failing to cover by 9.4 PPG.

• Dan Campbell is 23-10 ATS on the road, tied for the best in the NFL since 2021.

Projection:
The Lions’ superior motivation, health, and road dominance allow them to comfortably cover against a depleted and demoralized 49ers team. Final score projection: Lions 30, 49ers 20.

NCAAF - Music City Bowl: Iowa vs Missouri

Pick: Missouri ML / Wager: 5%

Iowa's Offensive Limitations:

Iowa enters the Music City Bowl with glaring offensive deficiencies, compounded by key absences. Star RB Kaleb Johnson, responsible for 1,537 rushing yards and 23 touchdowns this season, is opting out, creating a significant void in their ground attack. Without their most reliable offensive weapon, Iowa’s ability to control the clock and sustain drives is severely hampered. The situation worsens at quarterback, where the already-struggling Hawkeyes (ranked 124th nationally in passing yards per game) will rely on Brendan Sullivan, who was only recently cleared to play after missing the regular-season finale. Iowa QBs combined for just nine passing touchdowns all season, highlighting a lack of explosiveness and red-zone efficiency in their aerial game.

Missouri's Stability and Strengths:

On the other side, Missouri boasts a more balanced and proven offensive attack led by QB Brady Cook. Cook’s extensive experience—making his fourth bowl game start and holding a career 26-13 record—provides a stabilizing force. Even with WR Luther Burden unavailable, Missouri has shown the ability to adapt and maintain offensive efficiency through its deep roster and play-calling versatility. The Tigers’ offensive physicality and execution were on full display in last year’s Cotton Bowl, where they outmatched a high-powered Ohio State team, proving their ability to contend with elite Big Ten defenses.

Comparative Dynamics:

This game pits Missouri's offensive balance and experience against an Iowa team struggling to establish consistency or generate points. Iowa’s defense remains its strength, allowing just 12.2 points per game (2nd nationally). However, their defensive prowess often masks their inability to sustain drives and flip field position—a problem likely to be exacerbated by Johnson’s absence and an uncertain QB situation. Missouri, averaging 30.3 points per game this season, has shown they can produce scoring opportunities even against top-tier defenses, including their impressive SEC schedule.

Betting Indicators and Key Stats:

1. Iowa’s Passing Game Woes: Iowa QBs accounted for only nine passing touchdowns all season, underscoring the lack of a vertical threat and the team's one-dimensionality.

2. Brady Cook’s Proven Leadership: Cook's 26-13 career record and extensive bowl experience make him one of the most reliable QBs in postseason play.

3. Missouri’s Big Ten Success: Missouri’s victory over Ohio State in last year’s Cotton Bowl demonstrates their ability to match the physicality and discipline of Big Ten powerhouses.

4. Points Differential: Missouri’s ability to average 30+ points per game is crucial against an Iowa offense that has consistently struggled to score and is likely to remain stagnant due to personnel losses.

This game ultimately hinges on Missouri’s ability to exploit Iowa’s offensive shortcomings while maintaining their own composure on both sides of the ball. Iowa’s defensive unit will keep them competitive early, but their lack of offensive firepower and depleted backfield make it difficult to keep pace with a well-rounded Missouri squad. The Tigers’ proven track record in bowl games, Brady Cook’s stability under pressure, and a deeper arsenal of offensive options position Missouri as the clear favorite to control this matchup.

By contrasting Missouri’s offensive balance and postseason success with Iowa’s glaring offensive limitations and injury-depleted roster, the betting edge decisively tilts in favor of Missouri. Expect the Tigers to wear down the Hawkeyes and pull away in the second half.

NCAAB: Houston at Oklahoma State

Pick: Under 138 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Houston’s first true road game of the season presents an opportunity for their elite defense to shine. The Cougars have allowed just 55 points per game, ranking No. 1 in the nation, and their opponents are shooting only 34% from the field, also No. 1 nationally. Additionally, Houston’s defense limits opponents to just 17.6 made field goals per game. Oklahoma State, undefeated at home, also boasts a strong defensive presence, which should lead to a low-scoring battle. Both teams’ ability to grind games down makes this a solid under play.

Betting Indicators

• Houston allows only 55 points per game, the best in the country.

• Oklahoma State is 5-0 at home this season.

• Both teams rank in the top tier defensively, emphasizing physical play and slow tempos.

Projection:
A defensive struggle sees both teams struggle to score consistently. Final score projection: Houston 64, Oklahoma State 61.

NCAAB: Iowa State at Colorado

Pick: Colorado +9.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Colorado enters this game with an 8-0 SU record at home, providing a clear advantage. Despite a blowout loss to Iowa State five games ago, the Buffaloes’ size and shooting ability (37.2% from beyond the arc) give them a chance to keep this game close. Iowa State has excelled defensively but has been less effective guarding the perimeter. Playing their second true road game, the Cyclones may find it difficult to replicate their earlier dominance, particularly against a Colorado team with a better game plan and home crowd support.

Betting Indicators

• Colorado is 8-0 SU at home this season.

• Colorado shoots 37.2% from three-point range.

• Iowa State is playing only its second true road game of the season.

Projection:
Colorado competes well at home and stays within the number. Final score projection: Iowa State 72, Colorado 67.

NCAAB: Loyola Marymount at Washington State

Pick: Washington State -8.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Loyola Marymount recently put together a five-game win streak but has struggled as a visitor, losing handily to Colorado State and USF in their last two road games. While Jevon Porter (14.2 ppg) has been a bright spot for the Lions, other key players like Myron Amey Jr. have underperformed, with Amey hitting just 25.5% from three-point range. The Lions are also facing fatigue after a 15-point road loss at San Francisco on Saturday, now traveling to Pullman for a matchup against Washington State.

The Cougars have adapted well to the loss of top scorer Cedric Coward (17.7 ppg) and continue to show offensive balance with five players averaging double figures. Head coach David Riley has the team playing solid basketball, already starting their temporary WCC stint with a win. Loyola Marymount’s unfamiliarity with Pullman and Washington State’s depth and home-court advantage make this a tough matchup for the Lions. Two games in three days after a holiday layoff only add to LMU’s challenges.

Betting Indicators

• LMU started the season 0-3 against Division I opponents and struggles on the road.

• Washington State has five double-digit scorers, showcasing balanced offensive production.

• Loyola Marymount is coming off a 15-point road loss and now faces back-to-back road games.

Projection:
Washington State takes control early, leveraging their depth and home-court advantage for a comfortable win. Final score projection: Washington State 79, Loyola Marymount 68.

NCAAB: Pacific at San Diego

Pick: Under 144.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The much-anticipated "Steve Lavin Revolution" at San Diego has not materialized, as the Toreros continue to struggle under his tenure. Now 3-10 on the season, USD is operating with a depleted roster, highlighted by only one double-digit scorer, sophomore guard Kjay Bradley (15.7 ppg). The Toreros’ offensive woes are significant—they’re averaging just 66 points per game and shooting a dismal 26% from three-point range. As a result, the under has hit in six of their last eight games.

On the other side, Pacific has hit a rough patch, losing six straight games. Head coach Dave Smart’s team, built largely through the transfer portal, seems to have run out of steam offensively. The Tigers are also trending under, with seven of their last nine games falling short of the total. Both teams’ struggles on offense make this a strong play on the under.

Betting Indicators

• San Diego is averaging only 66 points per game and hitting 26% from three-point range.

• USD is 6-2 to the under in its last eight games.

• Pacific is under in seven of its last nine games.

Projection:
A slow-paced game with limited offensive production keeps the total well under. Final score projection: Pacific 68, San Diego 62

NCAAB: Santa Clara at San Francisco

Pick: Over 145.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Santa Clara’s high-powered offense has been red-hot, averaging 90 points per game over their last five contests and clearing the 90-point mark in each of their last three wins. Their six-game win streak has also seen the over hit in four straight games, thanks to improved three-point shooting (35% for the season) and standout performances from Adama Alpha Bal, who is averaging 22 points per game during this stretch. San Francisco plays at a slower pace but may be forced to match Santa Clara’s scoring tempo if the Broncos continue to hit shots efficiently. The potential return of Elijah Mahi (foot) adds further upside to the over.

Betting Indicators

• Santa Clara is averaging 90 points per game over their last five contests.

• The over has hit in four straight Santa Clara games.

• San Francisco may need to increase tempo to keep up with Santa Clara’s offensive pace.

Projection:
A fast-paced game with plenty of scoring opportunities on both ends. Final score projection: Santa Clara 81, San Francisco 77.