Sunday Funday: Keep the Wins Coming

Euro 2024: Germany vs Switzerland

Pick: Germany ML / Wager: 4%

Germany will look to maintain their winning streak when they take on Switzerland at Deutsche Bank Park in Frankfurt on Sunday. The Germans began their Euro 2024 campaign with a resounding 5-1 victory over Scotland and followed it up with a comfortable 2-0 win against Hungary. They currently sit at the top of Group A and are looking to secure first place with a strong performance against Switzerland.

Germany’s Recent Form

Germany has been in excellent form, demonstrating their attacking prowess and defensive solidity. In their opening match against Scotland, goals from Florian Wirtz, Jamal Musiala, Niclas Füllkrug, and Emre Can showcased their offensive depth. In their second match, Musiala continued his fine form with another goal, and captain Ilkay Gündogan added a superb finish to secure a 2-0 win against Hungary. This strong start has positioned Germany as the second-favorite to lift the trophy, with odds at +400.

Importance of the Match for Germany

This match is crucial for Germany’s path to the final. Securing the top spot in Group A would place them on the opposite side of the bracket from tournament favorites England and France, providing a potentially easier route to the final. A win or draw against Switzerland would ensure Germany finishes first in the group, allowing them to avoid a perilous path that includes facing England in the quarter-finals and France in the semi-finals.

Team News and Strategy

Germany’s manager, Julian Nagelsmann, is likely to field a strong starting XI to secure the top spot. While some key players like Ilkay Gündogan and Toni Kroos might be rested, the likes of Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz should start, providing Germany with enough firepower to secure a win. The team’s depth and quality across the pitch give them a significant edge over Switzerland.

Switzerland’s Recent Form

Switzerland opened their Euro 2024 campaign with a 3-1 win against Hungary, controlling the game comfortably. However, their performance in a 1-1 draw with Scotland was less convincing. Scott McTominay’s deflected strike put Scotland ahead before Xherdan Shaqiri’s wonder goal restored parity. Scotland came close to winning, with Grant Hanley’s header hitting the post, but the draw was a fair result.

Challenges for Switzerland

Switzerland’s squad includes several players who ply their trade in the Bundesliga, such as Granit Xhaka and Manuel Akanji, which could provide some familiarity against Germany. However, despite their solid players, Switzerland lacks the overall quality and depth that Germany possesses. Their performance against Scotland exposed some weaknesses that Germany could exploit.

Euro 2024: Hungary vs Scotland

Pick: Draw @ +269 / Wager: 3%

The Euro 2024 group stage match between Hungary and Scotland is crucial for both teams as they need a win to have a chance at making the knockout stage. Given the circumstances and the styles of both teams, a draw appears to be a likely outcome.

Scotland’s Recent Form

Scotland rebounded nicely from a heavy 5-1 defeat against Germany by playing a very even 1-1 draw with Switzerland. However, a draw in this match is not enough for Scotland; they need a win, which means they have to adopt a more aggressive approach than usual. Typically, Scotland’s style is more conservative, focusing on defense and set pieces rather than an aggressive attacking game.

Hungary’s Situation

Hungary has had a rough start to their Euro 2024 campaign with two losses, including a 2-0 defeat by Germany. They also need a victory to keep their hopes alive for qualifying via the third-place route. Like Scotland, Hungary is typically a passive team, preferring to defend in a structured 5-3-2 formation and hitting on the counterattack.

Tactical Battle

Both teams are known for their defensive setups and struggle when they are forced to play aggressively. Scotland, in particular, has issues with possession, often resorting to long balls and set pieces to create chances. Hungary, on the other hand, is overly reliant on Dominik Szoboszlai to generate offense. When Szoboszlai is neutralized, Hungary’s offensive output diminishes significantly.

Scotland’s Need for Aggression

Scotland will need to break out of their usual defensive shell and push for a win, which is not their comfort zone. This change in approach could lead to defensive vulnerabilities that Hungary might exploit. However, Scotland’s physicality and decent transition defense might help them manage Hungary’s counterattacks.

Hungary’s Struggles in Build-Up Play

Hungary is not proficient at building up play from the back and often ends up with low-quality crosses, which Scotland is adept at defending. Hungary’s inefficiency in pressing high and defending set pieces also plays into Scotland’s hands, as set pieces are one of Scotland’s few strengths.MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Phillies -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 6%

Phillies’ Form

The Philadelphia Phillies are back at home and their bats are showing life, making them a formidable opponent. Saturday’s game was expected to be a blowout, and similar attention is warranted for this matchup as well. With a strange start time for the Diamondbacks, it adds to the challenges they face against an in-form Phillies team.

Slade Cecconi’s Struggles

Slade Cecconi, the Diamondbacks’ starter, has had a challenging season. Despite a better performance last time out, Cecconi has generally struggled, allowing six or more earned runs in four of his last eight starts. This inconsistency is a significant disadvantage against a potent Phillies lineup.

Cristopher Sanchez’s Dominance

On the other hand, Cristopher Sanchez has been outstanding for the Phillies. Recently signing a lucrative extension, Sanchez has the confidence and support of the team. He has been particularly dominant at home, with the Phillies winning the last five home starts he has made. Sanchez’s form and the motivation to justify his new contract should drive another strong performance.

Offensive Momentum

The Phillies’ offense has been potent, and returning home seems to have reignited their bats. This surge in offensive production puts additional pressure on Cecconi and the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff, which has been less reliable on the road. The Phillies are expected to capitalize on this and continue their strong run at home.

MLB: Baltimore Orioles at Houston Astros

Pick: Orioles ML / Wager: 5%

The Baltimore Orioles will be looking to avoid a sweep against the Houston Astros. Despite Saturday’s loss, the Orioles have demonstrated resilience throughout the season, having only lost three games in a row once. They will be eager to bounce back and finish the series on a positive note.

Pitching Matchup

Albert Suarez (Orioles):

ERA: 2.35

Starts: 5 (since rejoining the rotation)

Advantage: The Astros have never faced him, which can give him an edge. Suarez has been effective, and his unfamiliarity to the Astros’ hitters could work in his favor.

Framber Valdez (Astros):

Baltimore Batters vs. Valdez: Current Orioles have a collective .923 OPS in 61 at-bats against Valdez. This suggests that the Orioles’ hitters have had success against him in the past, which could continue in this game.

Offensive Matchup

Orioles Offense: The Orioles have one of the top offenses in the league, currently ranked No. 2 in OPS at .772. They are likely to rebound following an uncharacteristic performance on Saturday.

Astros Offense: While the Astros have a strong lineup, the unfamiliarity with Suarez could pose a challenge.

Team Dynamics

Resilience: The Orioles have shown resilience throughout the season and have a strong track record of bouncing back after losses. Their potent offense is capable of putting up runs against any team.

Avoiding Sweeps: The Orioles have been effective at avoiding sweeps this season, indicating their ability to respond under pressure.

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates

Pick: Pirates -1.5 @ +140 / Wager: 6%

Riding the Paul Skenes Wave

Paul Skenes has been a revelation for the Pittsburgh Pirates. The team has shown a remarkable ability to perform when he takes the mound, evidenced by their 6-1 record in his starts. This includes five straight wins and four of those victories coming by two runs or more. The energy Skenes brings to the mound is palpable, and it clearly resonates with both his teammates and the home crowd, creating a supportive and enthusiastic environment that boosts the team’s performance.

Pirates’ Offensive Support

The Pirates have provided ample run support in Skenes’ starts, scoring six or more runs in five of his seven outings. This offensive production is crucial, especially when backing a run line bet, as it provides a cushion and increases the likelihood of a multi-run victory. The consistency in their offensive output when Skenes starts is a key factor in this pick.

Rays’ Struggles Against Skenes’ Profile

The Tampa Bay Rays have struggled with strikeouts, ranking in the bottom six in MLB in strikeout rate. They also have the fifth-worst chase rate and fourth-worst zone contact rate, metrics that play into Skenes’ strengths. His ability to generate swings and misses, combined with the Rays’ propensity to strike out and struggle with contact in the zone, suggests a favorable matchup for the young pitcher.

Aaron Civale’s Poor Form

Aaron Civale has been a weak link for the Rays, with the team losing eight straight games when he starts. Of those eight losses, five have been by two runs or more, highlighting his struggles and the team’s inability to support him adequately. Civale’s form and the Rays’ struggles when he pitches provide an additional edge for the Pirates in this matchup.

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians

Pick: Guardians ML / Wager: 8%

The Cleveland Guardians are in a strong position to sweep the Toronto Blue Jays, riding a four-game winning streak. The Guardians’ offense has been on fire, scoring at least five runs in each of their last six games. In contrast, the Blue Jays are struggling, having lost five straight games and failing to score more than three runs in any of those losses.

Pitching Matchup

Cleveland Starter:

The Guardians have not yet announced their starting pitcher, but their recent form suggests confidence in their rotation. Cleveland’s pitchers have been effective, and the team’s bullpen is reliable, adding to their advantage.

Yusei Kikuchi (Blue Jays):

ERA: 3.67, Kikuchi has had mixed results recently, allowing five earned runs in three of his last five starts. While he has had some success against the Guardians, his inconsistency this season raises concerns. Kikuchi is not an ace-level starter who can be relied upon to dominate a hot offense like Cleveland’s.

Offensive Matchup

Guardians Offense: Cleveland’s bats have been hot, consistently scoring runs and putting pressure on opposing pitchers. Their ability to score in bunches has been a key factor in their recent winning streak.

Blue Jays Offense: Toronto’s offense has been ice-cold, failing to produce runs and support their pitching staff. This offensive slump puts them at a significant disadvantage.

Team Dynamics

Home Field Advantage: The Guardians have been excellent at home, with a 25-9 record. Their familiarity with the ballpark and support from the home crowd provide a significant boost.

Performance Against Lefties: Cleveland is 14-5 in games against left-handed starters, showcasing their ability to handle southpaws effectively.

Key Statistics

Guardians’ Record in Close Games: Cleveland is 37-17 in games decided by more than one run, indicating their ability to win convincingly.

Blue Jays’ Recent Struggles: Toronto’s five-game losing streak and inability to score more than three runs highlight their current form and lack of offensive firepower.

MLB: Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds

Pick: Under 9.5 / Wager: 7%

Pitching Matchup

Nick Lodolo (Reds)

Home Record: 4-1

ERA: 3.21 Recent Form: Lodolo has been particularly effective at home and has continued his strong form since being activated in late May, posting a 2.16 ERA in four June starts. His ability to control the game at Great American Ball Park (GABP) is a significant factor in leaning towards the under.

Zack Kelly (Red Sox)

ERA: 1.75 in 19 appearances

Role: The Red Sox are deploying Zack Kelly as the opener for this game, a strategy that often helps limit scoring early in the game. With Kelly’s solid performance out of the bullpen, this approach could help suppress the Reds’ offense initially.

Weather Conditions

Wind Factor: Winds at GABP are tricky to predict but typically play a crucial role in scoring. Current conditions suggest that the wind may not significantly favor the hitters, aiding the under bet.

Offensive Matchup

Boston Red Sox

Performance vs. Lefties: 9-13

Lineup Adjustments: Boston is sitting a couple of regulars against Nick Lodolo, which should weaken their offensive output. This tactical move could further limit their ability to score runs.

Cincinnati Reds

The Reds’ offense has been relatively consistent, but they have shown a tendency to engage in lower-scoring games, especially during their recent 11-2 run. This trend aligns with the effectiveness of their pitching staff, including Lodolo.

Recent Trends

Under Trend for Reds: The Reds have been good to back on the under in recent games, thanks to strong pitching performances.

Series Performance: The previous two games in this series have both gone under, indicating a pattern of well-pitched, low-scoring games.

Rubber Match: The final game of the series often sees a more strategic approach from both teams, with a focus on pitching and defense. Given the historical context and the pitching matchups, this game is likely to follow a similar pattern.

MLB: Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers

Pick: Royals ML @ +130 / Wager: 6%

Max Scherzer’s Uncertain Form

Max Scherzer, despite his illustrious career, has shown signs of decline. Last season already hinted at a downward trend, and this year has been inconsistent for him. Making a late debut this season adds another layer of uncertainty. The Rangers need to manage Scherzer carefully, and there is a genuine possibility that he may not be at his best, especially in his first few outings. Scherzer’s potential vulnerability makes the Royals a more enticing pick.

Rangers’ Inconsistency

The Texas Rangers have been erratic throughout the season. While they have a strong roster, their form fluctuates, and they’ve managed to win four consecutive games only once this season. This inconsistency makes them a risky proposition as heavy favorites, particularly with a pitcher returning from a long layoff.

Alec Marsh’s Success with the Royals

Alec Marsh has been a reliable pitcher for the Kansas City Royals. The team has a 9-4 record when Marsh starts, indicating his ability to keep them competitive. His last outing saw him throwing only 76 pitches, suggesting he will be well-rested and ready for this game. Marsh’s effectiveness and the team’s confidence when he pitches are key reasons to back the Royals.

Veterans’ Strong Results Against Scherzer

Several veterans in the Royals’ lineup have historically performed well against Max Scherzer. This familiarity and success against one of the league’s premier pitchers can provide a significant advantage. The Royals’ experienced hitters are capable of making the necessary adjustments and capitalizing on any mistakes Scherzer might make.