Heat Wave Saturday: BrownBagBets Best Bets

Euro 2024: Czech Republic vs Georgia

Pick: Czech Republic ML / Wager: 4%

Georgia’s Tactical Shift and Defensive Issues:

Georgia approached their match against Turkey with a much more aggressive setup than what they displayed during the qualifying rounds. During qualifying, Georgia was one of the most passive teams, preferring to sit back and absorb pressure. However, against Turkey, they played a more proactive game, likely influenced by conceding an early goal. This aggressive approach exposed several weaknesses in their squad, particularly in ball-winning and defensive solidity.

One significant problem with Georgia’s setup is their lack of ball-winning capabilities in the midfield and insufficient defensive talent to handle an up-and-down match. If they employ a similar strategy against the Czech Republic, they risk playing into Czechia’s hands, which excels in transition play. Georgia would be better off sitting deeper and forcing Czechia to break them down from the back, but even then, their defensive frailties, particularly against crosses and set pieces, could prove costly.

Czech Republic’s Strengths and Tactical Approach:

The Czech Republic’s game plan against Portugal was straightforward: sit deep in a compact defensive block, deny space through the middle, and defend crosses effectively. This strategy worked reasonably well, even though they eventually lost the match. Against Georgia, Czechia will likely have more possession and will be able to attack more frequently.

Czechia’s high pressing game should be very effective against Georgia. During the qualifying rounds, Georgia struggled significantly against high presses, especially against teams like Spain. Georgia allowed the second-most high recoveries in the Euro field during qualifying, a vulnerability that Turkey exploited by achieving 18 high recoveries in their recent match.

If the Czech Republic can successfully deploy their high press, it will likely lead to numerous transition opportunities and high-quality chances. Additionally, Czechia’s proficiency in attacking via crosses will be a significant advantage against Georgia’s poor aerial defense and below-average set-piece defense.

Euro 2024: Portugal vs Turkey

Pick: Portugal ML + Over 1.5 Goals / Wager: 4%

Pick: Both Teams to Score / Wager: 4%

Portugal’s Strong Start:

Portugal’s campaign in Group F began with a hard-fought 2-1 victory over Czechia, secured by a last-minute strike from substitute Francisco Conceição. This win put Portugal level on points with Turkey, who also started strong with a 3-1 win over Georgia. The upcoming match between Portugal and Turkey at BVB Stadion Dortmund promises to be crucial for determining the group leader.

Roberto Martínez’s Tactical Choices:

Portugal’s manager Roberto Martínez faces a pleasant dilemma given the depth of attacking talent at his disposal. In their opening match, Martínez opted for a back three consisting of Ruben Dias, Pepe, and Nuno Mendes, with Diogo Dalot and João Cancelo as wing-backs. Vitinha anchored the midfield, while Bruno Fernandes operated in a deeper role alongside him. The attacking quartet featured Bernardo Silva, Rafael Leão, and Cristiano Ronaldo up front.

However, this setup didn’t work perfectly. Portugal found themselves trailing before Martínez introduced Diogo Jota and Gonçalo Inácio, which improved their attacking potency. Jota, in particular, was instrumental and almost scored, highlighting his importance. Moving forward, Martínez might favor starting Jota and possibly reverting to a 4-3-3 formation to include more attacking options.

Turkey’s Defensive Vulnerabilities:

Turkey deserved their win against Georgia, with standout performances from youngsters Arda Güler and Kenan Yildiz, and strong leadership from Hakan Çalhanoğlu. However, despite the 3-1 scoreline, Turkey’s defense looked susceptible, and Georgia had several scoring opportunities. This defensive frailty could be exploited by Portugal’s more clinical forwards.

Portugal’s Offensive Edge:

Portugal’s attack boasts a wealth of talent that can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Turkey. The likes of Cristiano Ronaldo, Bernardo Silva, and potentially Jota, are more than capable of breaching Turkey’s backline. Additionally, if Martínez opts for a more aggressive formation with five attackers, Portugal’s offensive threat will be even.

Euro Cup 2024: Belgium vs. Romania

Pick: Romelu Lukaku Anytime Goal @ +100 / Wager: 4%

Lukaku’s Goal-Scoring Prowess

Despite a minor setback in the opening match, Romelu Lukaku remains a formidable striker, and backing him to find the net again is a sound bet, especially at even money or better. Lukaku thrives against defenses that sit deep, and Romania’s setup is likely to provide him with numerous opportunities to showcase his goal-scoring abilities.

Romania’s Defensive Setup

Romania, known for their collective defensive strength, presents a challenge similar to Slovakia. Their squad features elite defenders like Tottenham Hotspur’s Radu Dragusin and Horațiu Moldovan, who serves as Jan Oblak’s backup at Atletico Madrid. However, despite these strong defensive pieces, their overall strategy often involves conceding possession and relying on counterattacks.

Romania’s Performance Against Ukraine

Romania’s opening victory over Ukraine was atypical. Holding only 30% possession, they managed to score three goals, a feat they achieved only once in their qualifying campaign. This performance deviated from their usual playstyle, indicating potential vulnerabilities that Belgium can exploit. Nicolae Sanciu’s opener was arguably fortunate, while Razvan Marin’s goal benefited from a late reaction by Ukraine’s goalkeeper Andriy Lunin.

Belgium’s Offensive Dynamics

Belgium created a higher expected goals (xG) value than Slovakia in their opening match, highlighting their offensive potential. Despite an apparent leveler from Lukaku being correctly ruled offside, Belgium’s performance demonstrated their capacity to generate numerous chances. Most of Belgium’s 14 shot attempts after falling behind were low-quality opportunities, indicating room for improvement in converting chances into goals.

Strategic Adjustments for Belgium

Manager Domenico Tedesco’s side is significantly more dangerous when scoring first. This was evident in their qualifying campaign, where Belgium secured all six of their victories after taking an early lead. Lukaku’s presence and goal-scoring ability are crucial for Belgium to break down Romania’s deep-lying defense.

Copa America: Mexico vs. Jamaica

Pick: Mexico to Score in the First Half / Wager: 4%

Pick: Mexico over 1.5 Team Total Goals / Wager: 4%

Dominant History:

Recent history favors Mexico significantly in this matchup, with Jamaica failing to secure a win in their last five meetings. Mexico has outscored Jamaica 10-4 in these encounters, consistently finding the net early on. This trend suggests Mexico’s ability to impose their attacking style from the onset.

Confidence Boost:

Mexico enters this Copa America fixture with a morale boost after scoring twice against a formidable Brazil side. This recent performance against a stronger opponent highlights Mexico’s attacking capabilities and sets the stage for them to strike early against a less formidable Jamaican defense.

Attacking Frontline:

The Mexican attack, led by Santiago Gimenez, Uriel Antuna, and Julian Quinones, is their strongest asset. Gimenez, in particular, has been prolific in his role as a true striker, making Mexico a constant threat in the attacking third. With such a potent forward line, Mexico is likely to press Jamaica’s aging and injury-plagued backline right from the kickoff.

Jamaica’s Defensive Struggles:

Jamaica has been dealing with significant injuries and an aging defense, which has struggled to maintain consistency. This weakness is something Mexico can exploit, particularly in the first half when Jamaica might still be trying to find their footing in the match.

MLB: Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies

Pick: Over 9 / Wager: 6%

Analysis:

Diamondbacks’ Offensive Surge:

The Arizona Diamondbacks have managed to pull themselves back to a .500 record thanks to an impressive 13-6 run over their last 19 games. This resurgence has largely been driven by their offense, necessitated by injuries to key starting pitchers. In each of their wins during this streak, the Diamondbacks have managed to score at least four runs. This indicates a trend towards high-scoring games, especially when their pitching staff is compromised.

Phillies’ Home Advantage and Offensive Potential:

The Philadelphia Phillies have been enjoying a strong run at home, winning 12 of their last 13 games at Citizens Bank Park. This venue has been known to be hitter-friendly, which should further support a high-scoring affair. The Phillies’ lineup, featuring the likes of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner, has the potential to put up big numbers, especially against a weakened Diamondbacks pitching staff.

Pitching Matchup:

The pitching matchup, featuring Taijuan Walker for the Phillies and Jordan Montgomery for the Diamondbacks, suggests potential for runs. Walker has been solid for the Phillies but can be inconsistent at times. Montgomery, on the other hand, has struggled with his strikeout rate and has been prone to giving up hard contact. This is particularly concerning against a powerful Phillies lineup in a hitter-friendly park.

Recent Trends and Performance:

Both teams have shown a tendency towards high-scoring games recently. The Diamondbacks, as mentioned, have been scoring well over their past few weeks. Meanwhile, the Phillies have the third-best weighted on-base average (wOBA) against left-handed pitching in MLB, which does not bode well for Montgomery. Philadelphia also has a strong record after a loss, which suggests they are likely to bounce back offensively.

MLB: Atlanta Braves at New York Yankees

Pick: Yankees ML / Wager: 8%

Pick: Juan Soto HR @ +350 / Wager: 3%

Urgency for the Yankees:

The New York Yankees are on a three-game skid and are facing the possibility of losing four in a row for the first time this season. This series against the Atlanta Braves feels like a crucial point for them to regain their momentum, especially after being dominated in back-to-back home games. The Yankees will be keen to avoid a sweep and show resilience in front of their home crowd.

Yankees’ Home Advantage:

Playing at Yankee Stadium has its benefits, particularly for the Yankees’ lineup, which has historically performed well at home. The short porch in right field is particularly advantageous for left-handed hitters, and the ball tends to carry well during the warmer months. The Yankees have a strong record of bouncing back from losses and are likely to come out with intensity to end their losing streak.

Pitching Matchup - Charlie Morton:

Charlie Morton, the Braves’ starter, is a veteran pitcher who has had his share of struggles at Yankee Stadium. He has allowed seven home runs in seven career games at this venue, and the current Yankees lineup has several hitters with good splits against him. Morton’s tendency to give up home runs, especially in a hitter-friendly park, could be exploited by the Yankees’ power hitters.

Key Hitters - Juan Soto:

Juan Soto has an excellent track record against Charlie Morton, with three home runs in 11 career at-bats. Given the Yankees’ reliance on their top hitters to produce, Soto’s performance will be crucial. In a game where the Yankees need their stars to step up, Soto’s ability to hit long balls could be a game-changer.