Unpredictable Start to 2025: Sugar Bowl, Gator Bowl & More

January 1 – A Wild Start to the New Year:
The first day of January didn’t disappoint when it came to excitement—blowouts we didn’t expect, close games we didn’t see coming, and even some schedule shakeups. It wasn’t a winning day, but that’s the beauty of the BrownBagBets process: every day, every play, is a step toward the bigger picture.

Trust the Process, Focus on Today:
No single day defines the journey. Wins and losses are just part of the grind. What matters is how we respond, and today is a fresh slate filled with opportunity. The process works because it’s built to navigate the highs and lows, keeping us disciplined and focused on the long game.

Today’s Slate – Action-Packed with Variety:

• The Sugar Bowl:

  • Originally set for Wednesday, the game between Notre Dame and Georgia has been rescheduled for 4 p.m. ET today, making it the centerpiece of the afternoon slate.

• The Gator Bowl:

  • Down in Jacksonville, Duke takes on Ole Miss in what promises to be an exciting matchup with plenty of betting angles to explore.

• College Basketball:

  • An early start to a stacked slate of games gives us plenty to work with, including the day’s marquee matchup: Illinois at Oregon, tipping off late at 10 p.m. ET.

• NBA and NHL Action:

  • Both leagues round out the day with solid schedules, offering even more chances to find value.

Final Thought – Let’s Get It Today:
Yesterday reminded us of the unpredictability of sports, but that’s what makes the process so important. With a packed slate ahead, from bowl games to college hoops, NBA, and NHL, we’re ready to execute the system and make the most of today. Let’s lock in, stay focused, and get back on track.

NCAAF - National Quarterfinal - Sugar Bowl: Notre Dame vs Georgia
Pick: Georgia ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Bulldogs showed resilience in the SEC Championship game, winning with backup QB Gunner Stockton stepping in for the injured Carson Beck. Stockton brought renewed energy and composure, keeping Georgia’s offense balanced and effective. Despite Beck’s absence, Georgia's depth at key positions ensures they remain a formidable opponent. The Bulldogs have been here before, with head coach Kirby Smart emphasizing preparation and execution in critical postseason games. This experience gives them a significant edge in what essentially becomes a "one-game season."

Notre Dame, while impressive this season, faces a daunting challenge. Their most notable win came in Week 1 against Texas A&M, and while they’ve proved capable of stepping up in big games, Georgia represents a step above in terms of physicality and depth. The Irish defense may gain some advantages with Georgia’s offense being less dynamic without Beck, but the Bulldogs’ physical run game and elite defense should tilt the scales.

Moreover, playing in the Superdome adds another layer of advantage for Georgia. The Bulldogs are familiar with the environment, and their fan base should create a pseudo-home atmosphere. Kirby Smart's ability to maximize preparation time, combined with Georgia’s postseason experience, gives them the edge in this matchup.

Betting Indicators

• Coaching Edge: Kirby Smart is 7-2 in CFP/major bowl games, emphasizing preparation and execution.

• Injuries and Depth: Despite Carson Beck’s absence, Georgia’s roster depth remains elite, especially on the defensive side.

• Recent Performance: Georgia’s SEC Championship win showed their resilience under adversity.

• Venue Advantage: The Superdome will likely be packed with Georgia fans, creating a home-like environment.

• Notre Dame’s Record vs Top Opponents: While solid, the Irish have yet to face a team as physical and well-coached as Georgia this season.

Projection

Expect Georgia to control the pace with their defense and rushing attack, while Notre Dame struggles to match the Bulldogs' physicality for all four quarters. Kirby Smart’s experience and game-planning ability should guide Georgia to a hard-fought victory.

Prediction: Georgia 27, Notre Dame 20.

NCAAF - Gator Bowl: Duke vs Mississippi
Pick: Under 51.5 / Wager: 5%

Analysis

Bowl season has not been kind to SEC teams so far, but Ole Miss enters the Gator Bowl as a heavy 17-point favorite, which says a lot about the disparity in this matchup. That said, the focus here isn’t on the side but on the total, as this game sets up well for a lower-scoring affair.

Lane Kiffin’s Rebels have showcased one of the nation’s most effective defenses this season, holding opponents to fewer than 14 points per game and hitting the under in 10 of their 12 matchups. The defensive effort against Georgia, in particular, highlighted Ole Miss’s ability to completely disrupt opposing offenses, a trend that should continue against a depleted Duke team.

On the other side, the Blue Devils’ offensive situation is bleak. With both starting quarterbacks entering the transfer portal, Duke is left with third-stringer Henry Belin IV, who has attempted just one pass all season. The inexperience at QB will likely limit Duke’s ability to sustain drives or generate scoring opportunities. Duke’s offense is already built to grind out possessions, and now the personnel challenges will make them even more conservative.

Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart provides stability for the Rebels' offense, but their game plan will likely lean on the ground attack and clock control, particularly against a Duke defense that was respectable for most of the season. The Rebels aren’t looking for style points here; they’re aiming to secure a win in convincing yet efficient fashion.

Betting Indicators

• Ole Miss Defensive Dominance: Rebels are 10-1 to the under in their last 11 games.

• Duke Offensive Limitations: Starting a third-string QB, the Blue Devils averaged only 19.8 PPG over their last five contests even with their top quarterbacks.

• Pace and Philosophy: Ole Miss’s ability to control the clock and lean on defense sets up for limited possessions and a lower-scoring affair.

Projection

This game has all the makings of a defensive showcase, particularly for Ole Miss. Duke’s offense will struggle to find the end zone, and while Ole Miss should score enough to win comfortably, their own methodical approach likely keeps the total under.

Prediction: Ole Miss 31, Duke 10.

NCAAB: Longwood at Presbyterian
Pick: Longwood ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup presents a clear edge for Longwood, particularly in their ability to dictate tempo and exploit Presbyterian's vulnerabilities on both ends of the floor. The Lancers boast a balanced offensive attack, averaging 75 points per game with a 47% shooting efficiency. Their patient ball movement and high-percentage shot selection should shine against a Presbyterian defense that allows nearly 74 points per game.

Defensively, Longwood is sound, holding opponents to just 68.7 points per game and forcing 14.5 turnovers per contest. This strength aligns well against a Blue Hose team that struggles with ball security, averaging 13.8 turnovers per game. With Longwood’s disciplined defensive structure, Presbyterian’s offense—which heavily relies on Raequan Brown—will face significant challenges, especially against a deeper and more versatile Lancers lineup.

Additionally, Longwood’s advantage on the boards (35.4 rebounds per game vs. Presbyterian’s 32.6) offers them extra second-chance opportunities. This edge could prove critical, as Presbyterian has failed to consistently capitalize on their limited scoring chances.

Betting Indicators

• Head-to-Head: Longwood has won four straight meetings against Presbyterian, averaging an 8-point margin of victory.

• Recent Form: Presbyterian is 2-8 SU in their last 10 games and has failed to cover in six of those matchups.

• ATS Trends: Longwood is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings against Presbyterian.

• Professional Movement: Significant sharp money has been observed on Longwood -3, highlighting confidence in their ability to win outright.

Projection

This matchup sets up well for Longwood to control both pace and scoring opportunities. Their superior offensive efficiency, defensive prowess, and rebounding edge make them the more complete team. Expect the Lancers to outmatch the Blue Hose in key areas and secure the win to start the day strong.

Prediction: Longwood 73, Presbyterian 66.

NCAAB: Towson at UNC-Wilmington (UNCW)
Pick: UNCW -5.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

UNCW has shown resilience and adaptability this season despite the offseason departures of their top scorers. Starting the year 10-3 overall and 8-3 against the spread, the Seahawks have demonstrated a strong ability to regroup and remain competitive in the CAA. Their current three-game winning streak highlights their momentum, with the team playing efficient basketball on both ends of the court.

Towson, on the other hand, has struggled mightily this season. Before narrowly beating Bryant on December 22nd, the Tigers endured a six-game losing streak, plagued by inconsistency on offense and a defense that has failed to contain opposing teams effectively. Having not played since before the holiday, rust could be a factor for Towson, while UNCW benefits from having played as recently as December 28th, keeping their rhythm intact.

The Seahawks thrive at home, with their defense limiting opponents to under 67 points per game on their home court. This will be a tough hurdle for a Towson team averaging only 68 points per game this season. UNCW’s balanced scoring and disciplined defense should be enough to cover the spread against a struggling Towson squad.

Betting Indicators

• Recent Form: UNCW has won three straight games and is 8-3 ATS on the season.

• Towson’s Struggles: Towson has lost six of their last seven games and is 0-3 ATS in their last three road games.

• Home Advantage: UNCW is 5-1 SU at home this season, with their defense excelling in those contests.

• ATS Trends: The Seahawks have consistently covered as favorites, reflecting their ability to take care of business against weaker opponents.

Projection

Expect UNCW’s momentum and balanced play to overwhelm a Towson team still searching for consistency. With a stifling defense and efficient scoring, the Seahawks should control the pace and secure a convincing home victory.

Prediction: UNCW 74, Towson 66.

NCAAB: South Alabama at Georgia State
Pick: South Alabama -4.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Georgia State is in the midst of a frustrating six-game losing streak as head coach Jonas Hayes searches for the right lineup combinations. With only one player returning from last season’s roster, the Panthers are struggling to find cohesion, and the results have been dismal. Toneari Lane, the lone returning player, has been particularly cold from beyond the arc, hitting just 3 of his last 34 three-point attempts over the past four games. Offensively, the Panthers are disjointed, and their defensive effort hasn’t been enough to compensate.

On the other hand, South Alabama has been playing like a team that understands its identity. Their unselfish ball movement and strong team chemistry have been paying dividends, with the Jaguars operating as a cohesive unit on both ends of the floor. They rank in the top half of the Sun Belt in both offensive and defensive efficiency, and their ability to capitalize on Georgia State's struggles should give them a significant edge in this matchup.

South Alabama’s recent performances suggest they have the tools to control this game, both in terms of tempo and execution. With Georgia State lacking consistent scoring threats and struggling to gel as a team, this is an ideal spot for the Jaguars to cover the modest spread.

Betting Indicators

• Georgia State’s Struggles: Panthers are 0-6 SU in their last six games and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall.

• South Alabama Momentum: Jaguars have covered the spread in four of their last six games, showing steady improvement in conference play.

• Offensive Cohesion: South Alabama averages 15.6 assists per game, ranking in the top tier of the Sun Belt, while Georgia State is one of the bottom teams in assist-to-turnover ratio.

Projection

Georgia State’s lack of offensive rhythm and defensive inconsistencies will likely result in another tough outing for the Panthers. South Alabama’s balanced attack and superior teamwork should be enough to secure a comfortable road victory.

Prediction: South Alabama 72, Georgia State 63.

NCAAB: St. Thomas (MN) at North Dakota State
Pick: North Dakota State -2.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

St. Thomas has been one of the surprising teams in the Summit League this season, sitting at 10-5. They’ve leveraged their Division III pedigree to find value in transfers, with G Miles Barnstable emerging as their leading scorer at 13.3 points per game. Head coach John Tauer has developed a deep rotation, regularly going 10 players deep to maintain a consistent tempo. However, their schedule reveals a lack of quality wins, with their best victories coming against sub-.500 teams like Montana and Bowling Green. This raises concerns about how they’ll fare against the Summit's top competition.

North Dakota State, meanwhile, has been on a tear, riding an eight-game winning streak into this contest. Their offense has been explosive, scoring 91 or more points in their last three games. Head coach David Richman has constructed a formidable lineup led by D-II transfer forward Jacksen Moni (18.5 ppg) and veteran guard Jacari White (16.5 ppg). This dynamic duo provides the kind of firepower that can overwhelm an opponent like St. Thomas, especially on their home court.

The Bison’s physicality and efficient scoring will be a significant challenge for the Tommies, who haven’t faced a team of North Dakota State’s caliber during this win streak. With North Dakota State clicking offensively and holding home-court advantage, they look well-positioned to cover this modest spread.

Betting Indicators

• St. Thomas Against Top Teams: The Tommies are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against teams with a winning record.

• North Dakota State Home Dominance: The Bison are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games, winning by an average of 10.3 points.

• Recent Form: NDSU has won eight straight, covering the spread in six of those games.

Projection

North Dakota State’s offensive efficiency and home-court advantage should allow them to take control against an overachieving St. Thomas team. Expect the Bison to exploit mismatches and dominate the paint with Moni and White leading the charge.

Prediction: North Dakota State 78, St. Thomas 69.

NCAAB: South Dakota at Kansas City
Pick: Kansas City -3 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Kansas City is heating up after a sluggish start to the season, riding a four-game winning streak that includes impressive victories over quality opponents like Wichita State and East Tennessee State. The Roos have started to gel offensively, averaging 75 points per game during this stretch, and their defense has also stepped up, limiting opponents to just 62 points per game over the same span. Kansas City’s balanced attack, led by G RayQuawndis Mitchell (14.2 ppg), will challenge a South Dakota team that has been abysmal on the road.

South Dakota, meanwhile, has struggled mightily away from home, going 1-6 in road games this season. Even more alarming is their inability to defend, as the Coyotes have allowed an average of 92 points per game in their road losses. Their lack of defensive discipline makes it challenging to stay competitive, especially against a Kansas City team that has found its rhythm offensively. With the Roos building momentum and holding home-court advantage, this looks like an excellent spot to back Kansas City.

Betting Indicators

• Kansas City at Home: The Roos are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.

• South Dakota on the Road: The Coyotes are 1-6 SU on the road this season, failing to cover in five of those losses.

• Recent Form: Kansas City has covered in three of their last four games, while South Dakota has failed to cover in four of their last five.

Projection

Kansas City’s recent form and defensive improvements give them a clear edge over a South Dakota team that can’t seem to stop anyone on the road. Look for the Roos to control the pace and pull away in the second half.

Prediction: Kansas City 76, South Dakota 67.

NHL: Minnesota Wild at Washington Capitals
Pick: Capitals ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis

The Wild are in a tough spot tonight, missing key players that have been instrumental to their success. With backup goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury (.898 SV%) starting instead of Filip Gustavsson, the Wild's defense is already at a disadvantage. Compounding the issue, they remain without Hart Trophy candidate Kirill Kaprizov and top defenseman Jared Spurgeon, both critical to their offensive and defensive stability.

Meanwhile, the Capitals have been one of the more surprising teams this season, outperforming expectations despite their early-season roster questions. While they’ve been a bit unpredictable, their consistency at home and ability to exploit undermanned opponents makes them an appealing pick in this matchup. The absence of Kaprizov leaves a significant hole in Minnesota's scoring potential, and Fleury’s struggles add further vulnerability, especially against a Capitals team that has shown resilience and depth.

Betting Indicators

• Minnesota's Absences: Kaprizov (leading scorer) and Spurgeon (defensive anchor) are out, impacting both ends of the ice.

• Goaltending Disadvantage: Fleury’s .898 SV% this season pales in comparison to Gustavsson’s more consistent play.

• Washington’s Momentum: The Capitals have surprised analysts this season with their competitiveness, especially at home.

• Head-to-Head Trends: Capitals have performed well historically against teams missing top offensive weapons.

Projection

The Capitals should capitalize on the Wild’s weakened lineup and take advantage of Fleury’s inconsistent play. Washington’s balanced attack and solid goaltending edge should carry them to victory in what could be a tighter-than-expected game.

Prediction: Capitals 3, Wild 2.

NHL: Boston Bruins at New York Rangers
Pick: Bruins ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Rangers are in the midst of a prolonged slump, losing 15 of their last 19 games and showing little improvement despite lineup adjustments and trades. Defensive issues have plagued them, and the absence of Igor Shesterkin due to injury only exacerbates their struggles. Backup goaltender Jonathan Quick has been unreliable in December, posting a concerning 3.74 GAA and an abysmal .847 save percentage in his three starts. These factors make it difficult to back the Rangers against any competent opponent, let alone the Bruins.

Boston, on the other hand, continues to perform consistently under interim head coach Joe Sacco. The Bruins have dropped consecutive games only once since Sacco took the reins, and goaltender Jeremy Swayman has been solid in net, boasting a .910 save percentage in nine of his last ten outings. Boston’s structure and discipline make them a reliable team to trust against struggling opponents, especially when priced fairly.

Betting Indicators

• Rangers' Form: Just 4-15 in their last 19 games, unable to contain opponents’ offensive threats.

• Goaltending Woes: Jonathan Quick’s December performance (3.74 GAA, .847 SV%) has been a liability, and Shesterkin’s absence further weakens their defense.

• Bruins' Consistency: Boston has avoided prolonged slumps, with strong performances under Joe Sacco and steady goaltending from Swayman.

• Matchup History: Boston’s disciplined style and depth often exploit teams like the Rangers, who struggle defensively and lack scoring punch.

Projection

The Bruins are simply the more reliable team, both in form and personnel. Against a Rangers squad lacking defensive cohesion and competent goaltending, Boston should capitalize and secure the win.

Prediction: Bruins 4, Rangers 2.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Minnesota Timberwolves
Pick: Anthony Edwards Over 24.5 Points / Wager: 5%
Pick: Under 219.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Anthony Edwards Over 24.5 Points
Anthony Edwards is primed for a breakout performance in this marquee matchup. While he’s had a quieter December, his track record against Boston suggests a big night. Edwards has scored 28 or more points in his last five games against the Celtics, consistently playing significant minutes (38+ in each) and taking 20+ shots. The Celtics’ defense might focus on limiting other Wolves’ scorers, creating opportunities for Edwards to lead the offensive charge. This nationally spotlighted game is an ideal stage for Edwards to shine, particularly in what projects to be a tight contest.

Under 219.5
Both teams are playing exceptional defense, making the under an appealing play. The Celtics have allowed just over 100 points per game in their last nine outings, while the Timberwolves have consistently kept opponents in check, going 11-6-1 to the under in their last 18. Their first meeting this season ended with a total of 212 (107-105 Boston), reflecting both teams' defensive prowess. Even with offensive firepower on both sides, the pace and defensive intensity should keep this game from becoming a shootout.

Betting Indicators

• Edwards' Performance vs. Boston: Averaged 28+ points in his last five matchups against the Celtics, with heavy minutes and high usage.

• Celtics' Defensive Form: Boston is 6-3 to the under in their last nine games, allowing just over 100 points per game.

• Timberwolves' Defensive Consistency: Minnesota is 11-6-1 to the under in their last 18 games.

• Matchup History: The first meeting between these teams landed at 212 total points, consistent with their defensive tendencies.

Projection

• Anthony Edwards: 29 points, 6 rebounds, 4 assists.

• Final Score: Celtics 108, Timberwolves 105 (Total: 213).

Both picks align with the game’s expected pace and player matchups, offering solid value for bettors.