New Year, New Chapter: BrownBagBets’ 2025 Kickoff

A New Year, A New Chapter – Welcome to 2025:

It’s January 1, and with it comes the start of a fresh year. December is behind us, and now it’s time to write the next chapter of the BrownBagBets story. A new year means new opportunities to refine our process, share our picks, and create monthly gains that build toward consistent, long-term success.

Who We Are – Just a Bunch of Average Guys:
At our core, BrownBagBets is built by people just like you. We’re a group of regular sports fans who’ve spent years working together to master the art, craft, and science of sports betting. What started as a shared passion for the games we love has evolved into a disciplined process designed to create passive income month after month.

We’ve built this process over years of success and failure, learning from both to create a system that works. Everything we do is rooted in transparency and discipline. Every single pick we share is built on the same principles:

• Betting Indicators: Proprietary signals flagging value in the pick, from market trends to statistical analysis, all of which we share openly.

• Wager Guidance: Built on a unique, proprietary bankroll management system that ensures gains over the month, while protecting against short-term swings.

• Monthly Dividends: Our approach isn’t about keeping your account alive or chasing losses—it’s about ending each month ahead, cashing out your winnings, and distributing the gains to yourself like a dividend.

We stand against the common traps of gambling. Too many people bet whatever is in their account, trying to keep it alive until they inevitably deposit more. We say: start with one thoughtful amount as an investment, and let’s manipulate it together throughout the month to finish with cash above where you started.

Our Philosophy – Winning the Month, Not the Day:
Sports betting isn’t about perfection. It’s about consistency, discipline, and focus. Our goal isn’t to win every play or every day—it’s to win the month. By creating steady, incremental gains, we’ve built a system that produces passive income for our community and proves the value of strategic betting.

We believe in:

• Transparency: Every pick comes with a play, wager percentage, analysis, betting indicators, and projected outcome.

• Discipline: Thoughtful risk management that prioritizes protecting your bankroll while maximizing returns.

• Community: Sharing our lessons, insights, and strategies so you grow as a bettor, not just as a follower.

What’s Ahead – 2025 Starts Now:
This year brings new promotions, new opportunities, and new faces to the BrownBagBets community. As we continue to grow, our commitment remains the same: to deliver actionable insights, maintain transparency, and stick to the process that’s created success for years.

Today, we kick off with the NCAAF National Quarterfinals, an exciting slate of matchups that highlight the power of our system. This is what we do—day by day, month by month, we create results.

Here’s to a new year, a stronger process, and the journey ahead. Let’s make 2025 our best year yet.

English Premier League: Arsenal at Brentford

Pick: Brentford +1.5 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Brentford has been a formidable force at the Gtech Community Stadium this season, boasting a strong home record of 7 wins, 1 draw, and just 1 loss. Their resilience at home underscores their ability to challenge top-tier teams, as evidenced by their offensive output of over 1.5 goals per match. The duo of Bryan Mbeumo and Yoane Wissa have been particularly effective, providing the Bees with consistent scoring threats.

Arsenal faces a significant challenge without key winger Bukayo Saka, sidelined for two months due to injury. Saka’s absence diminishes Arsenal’s attacking threat, potentially limiting their ability to dominate. While Arsenal has built a robust defense this season, their focus on defensive solidity has occasionally reduced their offensive output, making it harder to break down resilient teams like Brentford.

Brentford’s physical style and tactical discipline have historically unsettled Arsenal, especially at home. The Bees have demonstrated their ability to keep matches competitive against the league’s top teams, and this encounter presents a unique challenge for the Gunners, who will find it difficult to secure a dominant victory in this setting.

Betting Indicators

• Brentford has the joint-best home form in the Premier League this season, tied with Liverpool.

• Arsenal will be without Bukayo Saka, a key offensive player.

• Brentford averages over 1.5 goals per match at home.

• Arsenal’s defensive focus has occasionally limited their attacking output.

Projection:
Brentford’s strong home form and Arsenal’s injury concerns keep this match competitive. Final score projection: Arsenal 1, Brentford 1.

NCAAF - Peach Bowl - National Quarterfinal: Texas vs Arizona State

Pick: Texas -12 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

This matchup heavily favors Texas. Arizona State relies on their running game, but Texas boasts one of the top rushing defenses in the country, allowing just 104.2 yards per game (10th nationally). The Sun Devils have faced a weaker schedule with an average total defense rank of 76.6 among their opponents, while Texas ranks No. 3 in total defense. Without star WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State's offense lacks the explosiveness to challenge the Longhorns’ elite secondary, which ranks second nationally in passing yards allowed (156.9 per game).

Additionally, Texas has shown the ability to pressure opposing quarterbacks, while Arizona State’s offensive line has struggled, ranking 100th in sacks allowed. The Longhorns should dominate the trenches on both sides of the ball and limit the effectiveness of ASU’s standout RB Cam Skattebo. Expect Texas to control the game tempo and pull away late.

Betting Indicators

• Texas allows just 104.2 rushing yards per game, ranking 10th nationally.

• Arizona State ranks 100th in sacks per game, unable to pressure elite QBs.

• Longhorns are facing a depleted ASU offense missing key playmakers.

Projection:
Texas dominates defensively and scores consistently to cover the spread. Final score projection: Texas 38, Arizona State 20.

NCAAF - Rose Bowl - National Quarterfinal: Ohio State vs Oregon

Pick: Oregon +2.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Over 55 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

This rematch between Ohio State and Oregon promises another thrilling high-scoring affair. The first meeting showcased the evenly matched nature of these teams, with both exceeding 450 yards of total offense and Oregon edging out a 7.6 to 6.9 advantage in yards per play. Ohio State’s corners struggled against deep shots in the first game, and Oregon QB Bo Nix will look to exploit that again.

Ryan Day’s conservative play-calling against Michigan could resurface here, while Oregon HC Dan Lanning has proven to be aggressive and creative in high-stakes situations. Additionally, Ohio State has played just one true road game this season, a loss to Oregon. With the pressure mounting and the game outside Columbus, the Ducks have the edge in coaching and preparation.

Betting Indicators

• Oregon averaged 7.6 yards per play in the first matchup.

• Ohio State’s corners were vulnerable to deep shots in the first meeting.

• Ducks have shown composure in high-stakes games under Dan Lanning.

Projection:
Oregon wins a closely contested rematch, relying on aggressive play-calling and better execution. Final score projection: Oregon 34, Ohio State 31.

NCAAF - Sugar Bowl - National Quarterfinal: Notre Dame vs Georgia

Pick: Georgia ML / Wager: 5%

Analysis

Georgia enters this matchup as the SEC champions, showcasing their depth and resilience after overcoming the loss of starting QB Carson Beck in the title game. Backup QB Brock Vandagriff brings a chip on his shoulder and has proven capable in high-pressure moments. Georgia’s experienced roster, accustomed to games of this magnitude, provides a significant edge over Notre Dame.

The Irish’s most impressive win came in Week 1 against Texas A&M, but their consistency has wavered against elite competition. Georgia’s elite rushing defense (Top 5 nationally) will force Notre Dame into a one-dimensional game plan. Additionally, the Bulldogs’ fan base is expected to travel well, creating a favorable environment in the Sugar Bowl. Georgia’s combination of talent, depth, and experience should carry them to a hard-fought victory.

Betting Indicators

• Georgia’s defense ranks among the best nationally against the run.

• Notre Dame has struggled to consistently beat elite teams.

• Bulldogs boast extensive experience in high-stakes postseason games.

Projection:
Georgia grinds out a victory with superior depth and execution. Final score projection: Georgia 27, Notre Dame 20.

NCAAB: University of Connecticut at DePaul

Pick: DePaul +12 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

DePaul has shown resilience in recent games, highlighted by a solid 70-58 victory over Chicago State. This win underscores their ability to remain competitive, especially when playing under the cushion of a significant point spread. The Blue Demons are averaging 66.9 points per game, with key contributors like Chico Carter Jr., who averages 13.5 points per game, leading their offensive efforts. This balanced scoring provides confidence in their ability to stay within a 12-point margin.

UConn, while having an impressive season, has displayed inconsistencies in recent matchups. Their 75-60 loss to Seton Hall and a narrow 69-65 win over St. John’s (where they trailed at halftime) reveal potential vulnerabilities in covering large spreads. The Huskies’ defensive allowance of 64.2 points per game aligns closely with DePaul’s scoring average, suggesting the Blue Demons could approach or exceed this threshold.

DePaul has a history of covering spreads effectively, particularly when labeled as underdogs. Their ATS performance and competitive showings against UConn in prior matchups support their capability to stay within the +12 margin. Historically, contests between these two teams have often been closer than expected, reinforcing the value in backing DePaul.

Betting Indicators

• DePaul is averaging 66.9 points per game, led by Chico Carter Jr. with 13.5 PPG.

• UConn has struggled to dominate in recent games, including a loss to Seton Hall and a close win over St. John’s.

• DePaul’s historical ATS performance as underdogs supports their ability to cover.

• UConn allows an average of 64.2 PPG, close to DePaul’s scoring output.

Projection:
DePaul keeps the game competitive, leveraging their offensive efforts to stay within the spread. Final score projection: UConn 74, DePaul 65.

NCAAB: Evansville at Southern Illinois

Pick: Under 139.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

Southern Illinois has showcased a strong defensive presence this season, allowing just 64.2 points per game. This disciplined defensive approach has been a cornerstone of their success and a critical factor in keeping game totals low. Additionally, Evansville has demonstrated recent improvements in tightening their defense, leading to lower-scoring outcomes.

Offensively, the Purple Aces struggle significantly, averaging only 62.8 points per game, which places them among the lower-scoring teams in Division I. This lack of offensive efficiency further supports the likelihood of a lower-scoring game. The Salukis, on the other hand, employ a deliberate offensive strategy, emphasizing ball control and high-percentage shots. This methodical pace naturally suppresses scoring.

In their previous meeting, Southern Illinois defeated Evansville 65-53, with a combined total of 118 points, falling well below tonight’s 139.5 threshold. Both teams have shown a consistent trend toward unders in recent matchups, reinforcing confidence in this play.

Betting Indicators

• Southern Illinois has allowed an average of 64.2 points per game this season.

• Evansville averages only 62.8 points per game, highlighting offensive struggles.

• The Salukis hit the under in 15 of their last 26 games; Evansville in 16 of their last 27.

• The previous meeting totaled 118 points, significantly below the current line.

Projection:
A slow-paced, defensive battle keeps the scoring in check. Final score projection: Southern Illinois 67, Evansville 58.

NCAAB: Villanova at Butler

Pick: Butler +1.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

Strong professional money is coming in on Butler's side, aligning with our position. Villanova has struggled on the road this season, going 0-2 SU away from home. Additionally, the home team has historically dominated this matchup, winning 10 of the last 11 meetings between these two programs.

The Bulldogs have shown resilience despite some tough losses to UConn and North Dakota State. They possess the better defense in this matchup, holding opponents to just 30.4% shooting from beyond the arc. Villanova’s offense, ranked 7th in efficiency nationally, remains a challenge, but Butler’s defensive edge could make the difference in a close game.

Butler has lost five straight games, yet the betting line has shifted in their favor, indicating smart money sees value in the Bulldogs. With this game essentially a pick ‘em now, we’ll take the contrarian route and back Butler to snap their skid at home.

Betting Indicators

• Villanova is 0-2 SU on the road this season.

• Home teams have won 10 of the last 11 matchups between these two.

• Butler holds opponents to 30.4% from three-point range.

• The line movement toward Butler suggests professional backing despite their recent struggles.

Projection:
Butler capitalizes on home-court advantage and defensive grit to edge Villanova. Final score projection: Butler 68, Villanova 64.

NHL: New Jersey Devils at Los Angeles Kings

Pick: Kings ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Los Angeles Kings are riding a six-game winning streak, underscoring their strong current form and heightened confidence. During this impressive run, the Kings have demonstrated defensive solidity, allowing an average of just 1.4 goals per game. Their ability to stifle opponents’ offenses has been a key factor in their recent success.

Offensively, the Kings are firing on all cylinders. Anze Kopitar has recorded at least one assist in seven of their last eight games, showcasing his critical role in creating scoring opportunities. Meanwhile, Adrian Kempe has added firepower by scoring in three of the Kings' last four night games, further elevating their offensive threat.

Historically, the Kings have performed well against the Devils, winning five of their last seven matchups. With a moneyline of -105, bettors are receiving near-even odds on a team with significant momentum and a proven track record against their opponent.

Betting Indicators

• Kings are on a six-game winning streak, allowing just 1.4 goals per game during this run.

• Kopitar has recorded assists in seven of the last eight games.

• Kempe has scored in three of the last four night games.

• Kings have won five of their last seven matchups against the Devils.

Projection:
The Kings continue their strong defensive and offensive form, securing a hard-fought victory. Final score projection: Kings 3, Devils 2.

NBA: Chicago Bulls at Washington Wizards

Pick: Bulls -5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Washington Wizards have struggled mightily this season, securing victories against only three teams: Atlanta, Charlotte (twice each), and Denver. As underdogs of 10 points or less, the Wizards are 5-9 ATS, with all five covers coming against Atlanta and Charlotte. Against all other opponents, they are a dismal 1-9 ATS. Additionally, Washington is battling key injuries that further hinder their competitiveness.

The Bulls previously dominated the Wizards, winning by 19 points in Washington as 5.5-point favorites around Thanksgiving. Chicago has been consistent as a two-possession favorite, going 4-1 ATS in such situations while covering margins of 18.5, 13.5, 8.5, and 3 points. The Bulls have also covered three of their last five games on the road and play with a tempo and shot rate conducive to outpacing the Wizards, who rely on their ability to score but often fail to keep up defensively.

Washington’s trend is striking: of their 25 losses this season, 24 have been by 9 or more points. This pattern strongly suggests that when the Wizards lose, they lose big, aligning with a confident play on the Bulls to cover the spread.

Betting Indicators

• Wizards are 1-9 ATS vs. teams other than Atlanta and Charlotte when underdogs of 10 or less.

• Bulls are 4-1 ATS as two-possession favorites, with sizable margins of cover.

• Chicago scored 127 points against Washington in their last meeting.

• 24 of Washington’s 25 losses have been by 9+ points.

Projection:
The Bulls’ offensive efficiency and tempo overpower the undermanned Wizards. Final score projection: Bulls 120, Wizards 108.

NBA: New Orleans Pelicans at Miami Heat

Pick: Over 221 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The Pelicans have been involved in high-scoring games lately, going over the total in five of their last six contests and nine of their last twelve. These twelve games have averaged a combined total of 235 points, highlighting their defensive struggles and offensive pace. When the total is set between 221-223.5, New Orleans is 6-3 to the over, reinforcing their tendency to exceed expectations in this range.

Miami, despite some offensive inconsistencies, should be able to capitalize on the Pelicans’ weak defense. The Heat are 6-3 to the over when the total is set between 221-224 and have surpassed this total in seven of their last twelve home games. While Miami has leaned toward unders this month, their matchups with porous defensive teams like the Pelicans tend to turn into shootouts.

Both teams’ recent trends and the specific total range indicate strong potential for a high-scoring affair, making the over a solid play.

Betting Indicators

• Pelicans have gone over in 9 of their last 12 games, averaging 235 total points.

• Pelicans are 6-3 to the over when the total is between 221-223.5.

• Heat are 6-3 to the over in the 221-224 total range.

• Miami has gone over this total in 7 of their last 12 home games.

Projection:
Expect a fast-paced game with both teams capitalizing on defensive lapses. Final score projection: Heat 118, Pelicans 112.

NBA: Brooklyn Nets at Toronto Raptors

Pick: Nets +1 / Wager: 3%

Analysis

The Raptors started the season as one of the league's best covering teams but have recently fallen off a cliff defensively. They are only 9-9-1 ATS against Eastern Conference opponents and have failed to cover in both instances as a home favorite. Toronto is mired in an 11-game losing streak, with 10 of those losses coming by two possessions or more and eight by at least seven points.

When the spread is within +/- 3 points, the Raptors are 1-4 ATS, and they've failed to cover in six of their last seven games overall. Toronto allowed 125 or more points in four straight games and has been outscored by an average of 17.9 points during their current slump. Their defense has become a glaring weakness, giving the Nets a clear opportunity.

Brooklyn comes into this matchup with momentum, having won three of their last four road games and covering in three of those contests. The Nets previously defeated the Raptors by seven points in Toronto on December 19. Brooklyn has shown resilience, with only one-third of their losses coming in blowout fashion, which makes them a strong play in this close spread.

Betting Indicators

• Raptors are 1-4 ATS in spreads within +/- 3 points.

• Toronto is 0-2 ATS as a home favorite and 1-6 ATS in their last seven games.

• Nets have won three of their last four road games and covered in three of those.

• Toronto allowed 125+ points in four straight games, a defensive low point for the season.

Projection:
Brooklyn capitalizes on Toronto’s defensive struggles to pull off a tight road win. Final score projection: Nets 112, Raptors 106.