Saturday Early Look

The Comeback Begins Today

There’s no sugarcoating it—last night was rough. In fact, it might go down as one of the toughest single nights of the season. A 12% loss overnight isn’t something we take lightly, but if there’s one thing that defines the BrownBagBets community, it’s our resilience. We don’t rest, and we don’t wallow. Instead, we do what we’ve always done: dig in, analyze, adjust, and come back stronger.

And there’s no better day for a turnaround than NCAAF Conference Championship Saturday! With a packed board of opportunities, we’re ready to make today the defining moment of December.

Our Commitment to the Process

If you’ve followed us long enough, you know that every loss is a lesson. After last night, we’ve spent the morning diving deep into our data to ensure today is different:

• 30-Day Trends: We’ve analyzed a month’s worth of results, teasing out patterns and identifying actionable opportunities for today.

• NCAAB Adjustments: College basketball has been a thorn in our side lately, but today’s slate has revealed several plays we’re confident in after recalibrating our indicators.

• NCAAF Championship Analysis: A full season’s worth of data has highlighted trends we love for today’s conference title games.

• NHL Success: Hockey has been one of our stronger sports in recent weeks, and we’re leaning into what’s been working to find value tonight.

• NBA Troubles: We’re not hiding from it—NBA has been a problem. While we’re not ignoring the league, we’re being selective to avoid repeating mistakes.

Today’s Slate: Championship Saturday and More

1. NCAAF Conference Championships

• Today is the culmination of the college football season, with conference titles on the line across the country.

• We’ve identified plays that align with season-long trends and matchups we love.

2. NCAAB Rebound Plays

• Non-conference action offers a great chance to exploit inefficiencies in lines. After reanalyzing recent results, we’re targeting some standout opportunities.

3. NHL Consistency

• With hockey showing steady improvement over the last month, we’re leaning into the edges we’ve uncovered to find value tonight.

4. NBA Caution

• While the slate is intriguing, we’re approaching the NBA with caution, sticking to a few highly selective plays.

Today Will Be Better

We won’t accept yesterday’s result. That’s not who we are. Our system is built on discipline, research, and adaptation, and we’ve doubled down on that this morning to ensure today is better.

As always, our promise to you is transparency, effort, and results. This is about closing December strong and entering 2024 with the momentum we’ve worked so hard to build.

Let’s get it right. Let’s win today.

NCAAF: Ohio vs Miami (OH)

Picks & Wager:

• Ohio ML @ +115 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup between Ohio and Miami (OH) promises to be one of the most competitive games of the weekend. Both teams enter the MAC Championship Game on extended winning streaks, with Ohio winning five straight and Miami claiming seven consecutive victories. While Miami won the conference title last year and defeated Ohio 30-20 earlier this season, there are compelling reasons to back the Bobcats in the rematch.

Ohio boasts the top rushing defense in the MAC, allowing just 98.7 yards per game, and pairs that with the conference’s best rushing attack, averaging 210.5 yards per game. The Bobcats have improved dramatically since their earlier loss to Miami, going 5-0 straight up and against the spread in their subsequent games. Meanwhile, Miami has been strong but may struggle to repeat its earlier success against an Ohio team that has found its rhythm.

History also favors the underdog in MAC Championship Games, with an 11-3-1 ATS record since 2008, adding more confidence to this play.

Betting Indicators:

• Ohio's Defensive Strength: Leads the MAC in rushing defense, holding opponents under 100 yards per game.

• Rushing Attack: Ohio averages 210.5 rushing yards per game, providing a physical edge.

• Momentum: Ohio is undefeated straight up and ATS in their last five games.

• Historical Trends: Underdogs in MAC Championship Games have a strong 11-3-1 ATS record since 2008.

• Revenge Factor: Ohio is 5-0 since losing to Miami and is poised to flip the earlier result.

Final Prediction:

Ohio 23, Miami (OH) 16
Ohio's balance between a stout rushing defense and a powerful ground game gives them the edge in this rematch. Expect the Bobcats to secure their first MAC Championship in program history.

NCAAF: Iowa State vs Arizona State

Picks & Wager:

• Under 51 / Wager: 3%

• Iowa State +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup features two teams known for their defensive prowess, making both the under and the Cyclones a solid play. Iowa State leads the Big 12 in scoring defense, allowing just 19.6 points per game, while Arizona State isn't far behind at 21.5 points per game. Both teams thrive in controlling the tempo, with Arizona State leveraging RB Cam Skattebo to grind out the clock and limit possessions.

Matt Campbell's Iowa State teams consistently trend toward low-scoring games when in the underdog role, evidenced by a 40-21-1 record to the under in such scenarios. Iowa State’s secondary is a major strength, allowing only 156.9 passing yards per game (third fewest nationally). However, their vulnerability to the run could play into Arizona State’s hands, enabling the Sun Devils to maintain control of the pace.

On the spread side, Iowa State has proven their grit in tight matchups, especially with QB Rocco Becht pulling out tough road wins at Iowa and Utah. Meanwhile, Arizona State enters without leading receiver Jordyn Tyson (75-1101-10), which could hinder their offensive explosiveness. Additionally, playing in the vast AT&T Stadium might mute some of the Sun Devils' adrenaline-fed energy that carried them during the regular season.

Iowa State’s physical defense and ability to limit explosive plays should keep them competitive, if not outright victorious, in this neutral-site clash.

Betting Indicators:

• Defensive Strength: Iowa State leads the Big 12 in scoring defense (19.6 PPG), and Arizona State allows only 21.5 PPG.

• Trends Favoring the Under: Iowa State is 40-21-1 to the under when an underdog under Matt Campbell.

• Pass Defense Dominance: Iowa State allows just 156.9 passing yards per game, ranked third nationally.

• Clock Control: Arizona State’s Cam Skattebo thrives on keeping the ball on the ground, limiting possessions and game tempo.

• Injury Impact: Arizona State is without their top receiver Jordyn Tyson, reducing their aerial threat.

• Neutral-Site Dynamic: The cavernous AT&T Stadium might temper the emotional edge Arizona State has relied upon.

Final Prediction:

Iowa State 24, Arizona State 21
The Cyclones’ defensive structure limits Skattebo’s effectiveness, while QB Rocco Becht makes enough plays to keep Iowa State competitive. Expect a low-scoring, physical game with Iowa State covering and the total staying under.

NCAAF: Marshall vs Louisiana

Picks & Wager:

• Marshall +5.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Marshall’s resilience this season has been remarkable, as the team has consistently defied odds with an impressive 11-1 record against the spread. Their journey to this game highlights their grit, especially after overcoming a 17-point halftime deficit at James Madison last week, securing a double-overtime victory to clinch their spot.

Quarterback Braylon Braxton has been a game-changer, steering the Thundering Herd to a perfect 7-0 record with him under center. Marshall’s offense has flourished under Braxton, averaging more than 37 points per game during his starts. On defense, the team boasts a powerhouse in Mike Green, who leads the nation in tackles for loss (21) and the Sun Belt in sacks (16). His presence is a game-wrecker and could give Louisiana’s offense significant trouble.

Louisiana, while strong, faces a Marshall team hitting its stride at the perfect time. The Herd’s ability to win on the road, coupled with their offensive firepower and defensive disruptors, makes them not just a solid pick to cover but a viable candidate for an outright upset.

Betting Indicators:

• Against the Spread Dominance: Marshall is 11-1 ATS this season, consistently exceeding expectations.

• Quarterback Impact: Marshall is 7-0 with Braylon Braxton at QB, averaging 37+ PPG in that stretch.

• Defensive Playmaker: Mike Green leads the nation in tackles for loss (21) and the Sun Belt in sacks (16), providing a key defensive edge.

• Resilience on the Road: Marshall has thrived in tough environments, including back-to-back road wins to reach this matchup.

Final Prediction:

Marshall 31, Louisiana 28
The Thundering Herd covers the spread and has a strong chance to pull off a surprising upset, riding their red-hot form and defensive dominance.

NCAAF: Georgia vs Texas

Picks & Wager:

• Georgia +3 / Wager: 5%

Analysis:

Is the wrong team favored here? Georgia already handled Texas convincingly (30-15) earlier this season in Austin, limiting the Longhorns to just 259 yards of total offense and forcing four turnovers. Now, this rematch moves to Atlanta—effectively a home game for the Bulldogs—where Kirby Smart's team is 2-0 this season, including a dominant win over Clemson to open the year.

Texas has benefited from the SEC’s weakest possible schedule, facing only one legitimate contender—Georgia—and losing that matchup. Meanwhile, Georgia endured the brutal SEC gauntlet and remains battle-tested. Despite razor-thin wins over Kentucky and Georgia Tech, the Bulldogs have stepped up in marquee matchups, as seen in their win over Texas and other top-tier opponents.

On offense, QB Carson Beck has rebounded well from a rocky start to the season, throwing 11 touchdowns without a pick in his last three games. Defensively, the Bulldogs held Texas to just 29 rushing yards in their previous meeting and are well-equipped to stifle a Longhorns attack that has stagnated of late, particularly with QB Quinn Ewers passing for under 200 yards in each of his last three games.

While Georgia’s 3-9 record against the spread this season is concerning, one of their three covers came against Texas, and the Bulldogs seem poised for another strong performance in the SEC Championship.

Betting Indicators:

• Defensive Dominance: Georgia held Texas to just 259 yards and 29 rushing yards in their earlier matchup.

• Strength of Schedule: Georgia navigated a much tougher SEC slate, while Texas benefited from avoiding top-tier opponents.

• QB Form: Carson Beck has thrown 11 TDs without an interception in his last three games.

• Home Advantage: The game is played in Atlanta, where Georgia already has a signature win this season.

• ATS Trends: Georgia is 3-9 ATS this season but covered against Texas in a dominant road performance.

Final Prediction:

Georgia 27, Texas 21
With a de facto home-field advantage and the defensive formula to stymie Texas, Georgia should prevail in this rematch. The Bulldogs' physicality and recent offensive efficiency will prove too much for the Longhorns to handle. Play Georgia +3 confidently.

NCAAF: Clemson vs SMU

Picks & Wager:

• Clemson ML @ +120 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Clemson enters this matchup with momentum and a history of dominance in conference championship games under head coach Dabo Swinney. Despite their loss to South Carolina last week, the Tigers find themselves in the title game thanks to a shocking Syracuse upset over Miami. Clemson is playing on house money, which often lends itself to loose, confident performances.

Swinney has an exceptional 8-1 straight-up record in conference championship games, with the Tigers winning eight straight. Adding intrigue, a fascinating historical trend shows teams entering conference title games on a 3+ game ATS losing streak are 7-0 straight up and against the spread in those scenarios over the last decade.

SMU has had an impressive season, but their strength of schedule and depth are concerns heading into this game against a battle-tested Clemson squad. Clemson has an edge in both trenches, and their defensive front is likely to cause issues for SMU's high-powered offense. Offensively, Clemson's run game should thrive against a vulnerable SMU defensive line.

With the Tigers motivated to redeem their season and Swinney’s mastery in championship scenarios, Clemson is poised to secure the win and disrupt the playoff hopes of an SEC team.

Betting Indicators:

• Dabo’s Dominance: Swinney is 8-1 SU in conference title games, with eight consecutive wins.

• Historical Trends: Teams on 3+ game ATS losing streaks are 7-0 SU/ATS in conference championships over the last decade.

• Trench Play: Clemson has a significant advantage on both the offensive and defensive lines.

• House Money Effect: Clemson is playing without pressure after backing into the title game, which often leads to an aggressive, confident game plan.

Final Prediction:

Clemson 31, SMU 20
The Tigers’ edge in physicality and championship experience should allow them to pull away in the second half. Play Clemson ML confidently at +120 odds.

NCAAB: Drexel vs University of Pennsylvania (UPenn)

Picks & Wager:

• Drexel -2.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Drexel enters this matchup as the statistically superior team, backed by a KenPom ranking that places them over 100 spots higher than UPenn. The Dragons have demonstrated strong rim protection, averaging 4.4 blocks per game, which could severely limit UPenn's ability to generate points in the paint.

UPenn has struggled against teams with effective interior defense, and this matchup may exacerbate those issues. Meanwhile, Drexel's efficient play on both ends of the floor has allowed them to control the pace and dominate lower-ranked opponents. Our predictive model gives Drexel a double-digit edge, which suggests substantial value at this short spread of -2.5. Even if a double-digit win is ambitious, most projections align with a margin of at least five points.

Betting Indicators:

• KenPom Ranking Advantage: Drexel is ranked more than 100 spots higher than UPenn.

• Defensive Strength: Drexel's 4.4 blocks per game create significant challenges for UPenn's offensive scheme.

• Model Projections: Our model and others suggest Drexel wins by at least five points, providing value at -2.5.

Final Prediction:

Drexel 72, UPenn 64
Expect Drexel to use their defensive prowess and efficient scoring to control the game, covering the short spread comfortably.

NCAAB: Iowa at Michigan

Pick & Wager:

• Michigan -8.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Iowa brings a capable lineup with experienced players like 6-10 Owen Freeman (17.3 ppg), 6-8 Payton Sandfort (16.1 ppg), and 6-6 wing Josh Dix (13 ppg). However, glaring weaknesses in defense and rebounding have been exposed, particularly in their lone road game, where Utah out-rebounded them 47-31. These issues are likely to be magnified on the road in Ann Arbor.

Michigan, under Dusty May, appears to be hitting its stride. The Wolverines are coming off dominant performances, including convincing wins over Virginia Tech, Xavier, and a road victory at Wisconsin. Transfers Danny Wolf (formerly Yale) and Vladislav Goldin (FAU) are emerging as a dominant frontcourt duo, with Goldin's 24-point performance against Wisconsin showcasing his potential to control the paint. Michigan’s depth, physicality, and defensive intensity should overwhelm an Iowa team that has struggled outside of its home arena.

Betting Indicators:

• Rebounding Edge: Iowa was dominated on the boards in its only game away from home, a potential liability against Michigan's strong frontcourt.

• Michigan’s Momentum: The Wolverines are firing on all cylinders, with notable wins against tough opponents.

• Iowa’s Road Struggles: Iowa's defensive and rebounding woes tend to worsen away from Carver-Hawkeye Arena.

• Depth & Transfers: Michigan’s roster, bolstered by impactful transfers, is beginning to coalesce effectively under Dusty May.

Final Prediction:

Michigan 84, Iowa 71
The Wolverines' superior defense, rebounding, and frontcourt dominance lead to a comfortable cover of the 8.5-point spread.

NCAAB: St. Mary’s (CA) at Utah

Pick & Wager:

• Utah -2.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

This marks Saint Mary’s first true road game of the season, presenting a major challenge for the Gaels against a strong Utah squad. While Saint Mary’s leads the nation in offensive rebounding, Utah has the size and depth to neutralize this advantage. The recent return of Lawson Lovering has bolstered the Utes' interior presence, adding to their ability to battle on the boards.

Utah boasts an impressive 60.7% effective field goal percentage at home, making them one of the most efficient offensive units Saint Mary’s has faced this season. The Gaels, who prefer a slower pace, are shooting just under 39% from beyond the arc, compared to Utah’s sharp 40.4% three-point shooting at home.

Additionally, the Utes have dominated this matchup historically, winning four of the last five meetings. With a balanced offense and the ability to defend against Saint Mary’s physicality, Utah should control the tempo and secure a decisive home win.

Betting Indicators:

• Home Efficiency: Utah shoots an impressive 60.7% effective field goal percentage at home.

• Interior Defense: Utah's Lawson Lovering provides key size and defensive presence to counter Saint Mary’s rebounding edge.

• Three-Point Shooting: Utah’s 40.4% from beyond the arc at home gives them a perimeter advantage over the Gaels.

• Matchup History: Utah has won four of the last five meetings in this series.

Final Prediction:

Utah 74, Saint Mary’s 68
Utah’s home efficiency, size inside, and perimeter shooting help the Utes cover the 2.5-point spread in a competitive game.

NHL: Philadelphia Flyers at Boston Bruins

Picks & Wager:

• Bruins ML / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Boston finds itself in a favorable spot, entering this matchup with three consecutive wins and a well-rested, healthy roster. The Bruins have maintained dominance at home, particularly against the Flyers, having won seven of the last nine meetings in Boston. This game carries added significance as it precedes a challenging 12-day, five-game road trip that includes tough Western Conference opponents where the Bruins may be underdogs.

Philadelphia, on the other hand, has struggled to find consistency, especially in net. Their recent performances in Boston highlight their challenges in this venue, making it tough to back them here.

Betting Indicators:

• Home Advantage: Boston has dominated the Flyers in Boston, winning seven of nine recent matchups.

• Momentum: Bruins are on a three-game winning streak and enter this game rested and healthy.

• Urgency: With a lengthy road trip ahead, Boston is likely to prioritize this game for added momentum.

• Flyers’ Issues in Net: Philadelphia continues to have goaltending inconsistencies, which Boston's efficient attack can exploit.

Final Prediction:

Bruins 4, Flyers 2
Expect Boston to capitalize on home ice, extend their win streak, and maintain dominance over the Flyers in Boston.

NHL: Washington Capitals at Montreal Canadiens

Picks & Wager:

• Canadiens +1 / Wager: 4%

Analysis:

Montreal has been a solid underdog play recently, going 2-0 outright this week, buoyed by the return of Patrik Laine. The Canadiens are finding their form, and this matchup presents another opportunity to capitalize on their resurgence. The key here will be ensuring Sam Montembeault gets the start in net, as he has been a steady presence for the Habs.

Washington, meanwhile, comes into this game on the second of a back-to-back after a surprising upset win in Toronto last night. Historically, the Capitals have been inconsistent in these scenarios, and fatigue could play a factor against a Canadiens team on a roll.

Betting Indicators:

• Montreal Momentum: The Canadiens have won two straight as underdogs, showcasing resilience and improvement with key players returning from injury.

• Capitals’ B2B Performance: Washington is on a back-to-back, which could lead to fatigue and lineup adjustments.

• Goaltending Confidence: Sam Montembeault’s expected presence in net is a stabilizing factor for Montreal.

• Underdog Value: Montreal has proven they can punch above their weight, making the +1 a smart play with potential outright value.

Final Prediction:

Canadiens 3, Capitals 2 (OT)
Montreal continues its underdog streak with a tight, competitive game that could push to extra time. The +1 provides a strong safety net in this scenario.