BrownBagBets Prepares for December’s First Full Weekend of Action

Every Loss is a Lesson, Every Day an Opportunity

Last night didn’t go as planned, but if there’s one thing the BrownBagBets community knows, it’s this: setbacks are part of the process. It’s not just about weathering tough nights—it’s about learning, improving, and positioning ourselves for massive success in the days ahead.

The same discipline that has brought us eight winning months this year guides us now. Our process isn’t about perfection; it’s about progress. We analyze every loss, identifying where the lines beat us and where we might’ve misread value, and we use those insights to sharpen our edge for the future.

Poised for a Big December Weekend

The first full weekend of December is upon us, and the board is packed with opportunity. From Friday’s loaded slate through the high-stakes action of the weekend, this is the kind of stretch that defines our approach.

Tonight: A Packed Friday Night

We kick things off with a diverse lineup of plays, offering chances to capitalize across multiple sports:

• College Basketball: Non-conference mismatches and early-season inefficiencies are ripe for exploitation.

• NBA and NHL: Both leagues feature exciting matchups, with player props, moneylines, and totals catching our attention.

• EPL Matches: Friday’s soccer schedule has value plays we’re digging into as part of the weekend buildup.

The Weekend: A Perfect Storm of Action

1. College Football Conference Championships

• It’s the culmination of the season with conference championship games taking center stage. These are must-watch, must-bet games, featuring title implications and high-stakes drama.

2. English Premier League

• A weekend full of EPL matchups offers plenty of chances to find value in the lines. We’re targeting some under-the-radar plays to exploit public betting biases.

3. College Basketball

• Saturday and Sunday deliver another full slate of NCAAB action, with opportunities for both underdog upsets and totals plays.

4. NBA and NHL

• From fast-paced hardwood action to the grind of the ice, we’ll have a lineup of plays ready to diversify our weekend card.

Why This Weekend Matters

This isn’t just another weekend. It’s our first full weekend of December, and it’s a chance to make a statement. Despite last night’s result, our process is sharper than ever, and we’re ready to attack the board with precision and discipline.

At BrownBagBets, we trust our approach, and this weekend is a perfect reminder of why it works. Setbacks only make us better, and every day is a chance to improve. We’re ready. Let’s make it count.

NCAAF: Western Kentucky at Jacksonville State

Pick & Wager:

• Over 57.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup hinges heavily on the status of Jacksonville State quarterback Tyler Huff. Assuming Huff is healthy and able to play, Jacksonville State's dynamic offense could exceed its season average of 35.4 points per game. Huff’s dual-threat capabilities have been pivotal, accounting for over 2,000 passing yards, nearly 1,200 rushing yards, and 13 rushing touchdowns this season. His return should reinvigorate a Gamecocks offense that struggled last week.

Western Kentucky brings an offensive identity centered around their air raid system. Despite struggles earlier this season, they remain capable of producing high-scoring outputs. Quarterback Austin Reed leads the Hilltoppers' potent attack, and their ability to capitalize on explosive plays should keep this game competitive and the scoreboard active.

Jacksonville State is coming into this game with a revenge angle after losing to Western Kentucky last week in a lower-scoring affair. With the Gamecocks back home and potentially at full strength offensively, the pace of this rematch should significantly accelerate.

Betting Indicators:

• Scoring Trends: Jacksonville State averages 35.4 points per game and has hit the over in four of its last six home games.

• Explosive Offenses: Western Kentucky ranks Top 30 nationally in passing yards per game, while Jacksonville State thrives on creating mismatches through Huff’s mobility.

• Revenge Factor: Last week’s game totaled just 36 points, but a healthier Jacksonville State and adjustments from both teams should yield a higher total.

• Defensive Struggles: Both defenses are vulnerable to big plays, particularly Western Kentucky, which allows 28.5 points per game.

Final Prediction:

Jacksonville State 35, Western Kentucky 31
The offenses return to form, and the total easily clears 57.5 points.

NCAAF: Tulane at Army

Picks & Wagers:

• Tulane -4 / Wager: 5%

Analysis:

Tulane’s eight-game win streak prior to their disappointing loss to Memphis showed their consistency against quality opponents. The Green Wave’s ability to adapt against option offenses was evident in their shutout of Navy just three weeks ago. Tulane’s defense remains formidable, allowing less than 20 points per game and excelling in turnover margin, which could spell trouble for Army.

Army’s season has been defined by their early success, but questions arise about the quality of their opposition during that stretch. Over the past four games, Army’s offense has sputtered, averaging just 19 points per game compared to 44 points per game in their first five. Quarterback Bryson Daily has been a workhorse, carrying the ball 65 times in his last two games, but the wear and tear are showing. With their annual grudge match against Navy looming, Army could find themselves emotionally divided.

Tulane’s first-year head coach Jon Sumrall has a proven track record in high-stakes games, going 2-0 in conference championships while at Troy. His experience could be pivotal in maintaining focus and discipline on the road. Tulane is 5-2 SU/ATS against bowl-eligible teams this season, demonstrating their ability to rise to the occasion against tougher competition.

Betting Indicators:

• Army's Declining Offense: Army’s scoring has dropped significantly in their last four games (19 PPG) compared to their early-season average of 44 PPG.

• Tulane vs. Option Offenses: Tulane blanked Navy, a similar triple-option team, earlier this season.

• Turnover Margin: Both teams are strong in this area, but Tulane’s balanced offense provides more scoring consistency.

• Army's Tougher Schedule Results: Army is 1-2-1 ATS against better teams this season, highlighting struggles when facing quality opponents.

• Road Favorites: Tulane has excelled in bounce-back scenarios and matches up well defensively.

Final Prediction:

Tulane 27, Army 17
Tulane rebounds after their Memphis loss, covers the spread, and puts the clamps on Army's option attack.

NCAAF: UNLV at Boise State

Picks & Wagers:

• Boise State ML / Wager: 2%

• Over 57.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

This matchup has blossomed into one of the Mountain West's most captivating rivalries, as the surging Rebels challenge perennial contender Boise State for conference supremacy. The Broncos, winners of four conference titles in the past decade, have a strong home-field advantage and should capitalize on it to secure another championship.

In their regular-season meeting, Boise State edged UNLV 29-24 in Las Vegas. The Rebels focused their defensive efforts on Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty, limiting him to 128 rushing yards, while dual-threat QB Hajj-Malik Williams contributed 284 yards and three total touchdowns for UNLV. Despite this, Boise State orchestrated a crucial late drive to seal the win. Now back on their blue turf, the Broncos are well-positioned to create enough separation for a victory.

This game features two high-powered offenses that should deliver fireworks. Boise State has averaged 47 points per game at home this season, while UNLV has maintained a solid 33 PPG on the road since 2023. Given the 53 points scored in their October clash and the Broncos’ 44-20 win in last year’s title game, this matchup is primed for another high-scoring affair. Expect Boise State to edge out UNLV in a close and exciting contest.

Betting Indicators:

• Home Field Advantage: Boise State is dominant at home, averaging 47 PPG this season.

• Offensive Firepower: Both teams have proven offensive efficiency, with Boise excelling at home and UNLV consistently scoring on the road.

• Recent Matchup: October’s 29-24 Boise win suggests another tightly contested game with potential for fireworks.

• Historical Trends: Boise State won last year’s title game 44-20, showcasing their ability to shine in high-pressure conference matchups.

• Ashton Jeanty Impact: The Broncos’ star running back is likely to bounce back after being slowed in the previous meeting.

Final Prediction:

Boise State 35, UNLV 31
The Broncos’ home dominance and offensive firepower push them to victory in a competitive, high-scoring game. Expect the Over 57.5 to hit comfortably.

NCAAB: Delaware at Duquesne

Pick & Wager:

• Delaware +4 / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Duquesne has struggled significantly at home this season, sitting at 0-4 in Pittsburgh, which negates any potential home-court advantage for this non-conference matchup. Meanwhile, Delaware boasts a strong track record in the Colonial Athletic Association (CAA), consistently contending at the top of the conference and delivering approximately 20 wins per season.

The Blue Hens excel in perimeter shooting, an area where Duquesne has failed to keep pace. Delaware is 4-1 ATS in their last five games, showcasing their ability to cover spreads consistently. On the other hand, the Dukes are underwhelming offensively, scoring less than 65 points per game and shooting below 41% from the field despite a relatively weak schedule. Moreover, Duquesne lacks scoring depth, with barely any players averaging double digits in points.

Though neither team has faced tough competition thus far, Delaware’s solid shooting and confidence-building wins give them the edge to cover the spread in what should be a closely contested game.

Betting Indicators:

• Duquesne Home Struggles: The Dukes are winless at home this season (0-4) and outside the top 340 in scoring nationally.

• Delaware's ATS Success: The Blue Hens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games, indicating a strong trend toward covering spreads.

• Shooting Advantage: Delaware’s sharp perimeter shooting could exploit Duquesne’s offensive inefficiencies.

• Offensive Disparity: Duquesne is averaging under 65 points per game and has limited scoring depth, a disadvantage against a capable Delaware offense.

Final Prediction:

Delaware 70, Duquesne 66
Delaware’s shooting and consistent ATS performance make them a strong pick to cover +3.5 in this matchup.

NCAAB: Brown at Bryant

Pick & Wager:

• Bryant ML / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Bryant returns home for the first time in nearly a month, and this should provide a significant boost as they take on Brown. KenPom gives Bryant the edge, ranking them at No. 170 compared to Brown at No. 198. The Bulldogs have a potent offense, spearheaded by standout players Rafael Pinzon and Earl Timberlake.

Pinzon is among the best shooters in the nation, ranking fifth in 3-point percentage at 56.0% and leading Bryant in scoring with 19.1 PPG. Timberlake, a former Miami and Memphis guard, adds versatility and star power. Averaging 14.8 PPG, 7.9 RPG, and 5.0 APG, he’s a consistent double-double threat and was named to the watchlist for the Lou Henson Award, highlighting his impact as one of the top mid-major players in the country.

Brown, while competitive, lacks the offensive firepower and high-level talent that Bryant possesses. The Bulldogs' efficiency from deep and Timberlake’s ability to control the game in multiple facets should give Bryant the edge at home.

Betting Indicators:

• KenPom Rankings: Bryant (170) is favored over Brown (198), indicating a measurable team quality gap.

• Home Court Advantage: This is Bryant’s first home game in almost a month, a situational advantage after a long road stretch.

• Star Power: Rafael Pinzon’s elite shooting and Earl Timberlake’s all-around game provide a significant talent edge.

• Team Scoring Potential: Bryant boasts a more dynamic offense, with the ability to score efficiently from beyond the arc.

Final Prediction:

Bryant 74, Brown 68
Bryant’s offensive firepower and home-court energy should lead them to a moneyline victory.

NCAAM: Kennesaw State at Georgia State

Picks & Wager:

• Kennesaw State +2.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Kennesaw State embarks on a short road trip to face Georgia State in Atlanta. The Owls recently competed in a challenging three-game tournament in Canada, where their offensive production took a hit due to the quality of their opponents. This game provides a strong opportunity for Kennesaw State to rebound offensively against a Georgia State team that allows 78 points per game.

Kennesaw State’s familiarity with Georgia State should also play to its advantage, as the Owls notched an 88-point performance in a victory over the Panthers last season. The matchup favors Kennesaw State’s ability to score efficiently and exploit Georgia State’s defensive lapses. With the proximity of this game essentially making it a pseudo-home matchup for the Owls, they’re a live underdog in this spot.

Betting Indicators:

• Defensive Weakness: Georgia State allows 78 points per game, providing Kennesaw State with an opportunity to regain its offensive rhythm.

• Head-to-Head Success: Kennesaw State scored 88 points in a win over Georgia State last season.

• Proximity Advantage: A short bus trip minimizes travel fatigue for the Owls, offering near-home conditions.

Final Prediction:

Kennesaw State 81, Georgia State 76
Expect the Owls to bounce back offensively and cover the slim +2.5 spread, if not secure an outright win.

NBA: Milwaukee Bucks at Boston Celtics

Picks & Wager:

• Celtics -7.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Boston Celtics have been dominant recently, winning 9 of their last 10 games, with six of those victories by at least nine points. Their efficiency on both ends of the court has set them apart as one of the league's most formidable teams. Despite some injury concerns—Jayson Tatum, Kristaps Porzingis, and Al Horford are listed as questionable—it’s reasonable to expect at least one of them to play, ensuring Boston retains enough firepower to handle the Bucks.

Milwaukee, while improving, has largely benefitted from matchups against struggling teams like the Pistons, Wizards, and Hornets. Against top-tier competition, the Bucks' inconsistent defense and reliance on their star duo of Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard could leave them vulnerable, particularly on the road in a hostile TD Garden.

This first game of a back-to-back for the Celtics presents an opportunity for a statement win against a potential playoff rival.

Betting Indicators:

• Boston’s Form: 9-1 in their last 10 games, with six wins by 9+ points.

• Milwaukee’s Recent Schedule: Success against weaker teams may not translate against a top-tier opponent like Boston.

• Home Advantage: The Celtics are one of the league’s best home teams.

• Defense vs. Offense: Boston's defense ranks in the top five of several metrics, while Milwaukee’s inconsistency on defense could be exposed.

Final Prediction:

Celtics 118, Bucks 107
Boston’s depth and defensive consistency should allow them to cover the spread and secure a convincing victory at home.

NBA: Indiana Pacers at Chicago Bulls

Picks & Wager:

• Under 248 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

While both teams have a tendency to play at a faster pace and struggle defensively, the massive total of 248 points provides value on the Under. The Pacers, known for their offensive firepower, have slowed their pace compared to the first half of last season. Additionally, they’ve struggled offensively in recent games, scoring just 90 points on Wednesday against Brooklyn, marking their fourth straight loss.

The Bulls, despite their defensive inefficiencies, haven’t shown the consistent offensive explosiveness required to justify such a high total. This matchup features two teams trying to recover from recent struggles, making it more likely to trend toward a lower-scoring contest than anticipated.

Both statistical models provide support for the Under, with the projection comfortably below the posted total.

Betting Indicators:

• Indiana's Offensive Dip: The Pacers have not exceeded 112 points in their last four games.

• Chicago's Inconsistency: While the Bulls push the pace, their offense hasn’t consistently delivered the numbers to support this high of a total.

• Model Projections:

  • Custom Model: 237 total points

  • Massey Model: 242 total points

• Historical Trends: Both teams have been inconsistent in hitting high totals, especially against middle-tier competition.

Final Prediction:

Pacers 118, Bulls 114
While the game could be fast-paced, inefficiencies on both sides and the inflated total make the Under 248 a strong play.

NHL: Washington Capitals at Toronto Maple Leafs

Picks & Wager:

• Maple Leafs ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The Washington Capitals have exceeded expectations this season despite missing their cornerstone player, Alex Ovechkin, due to injury. However, cracks are starting to show, especially in net with Charlie Lindgren. The Capitals’ goaltender has allowed 12 goals over his last three outings, signaling potential regression.

On the other side, Toronto's Anthony Stolarz has been solid, giving up more than three goals just once in his last seven appearances since November. The Maple Leafs have the firepower to exploit Washington's vulnerabilities, led by Auston Matthews, who has been on a tear since returning from injury.

Toronto also holds a strong historical edge, having won the past five matchups in this series. With home ice and a more consistent netminder, the Maple Leafs are well-positioned to take this one.

Betting Indicators:

• Goaltending Trends: Lindgren's recent struggles (12 goals in 3 games) contrast with Stolarz's steadier performances.

• Head-to-Head Success: Toronto has won the last five games against Washington.

• Auston Matthews' Form: The Maple Leafs' star is back to his best and will likely have a big impact.

• Home Advantage: Playing at home adds further weight to Toronto's edge.

Final Prediction:

Maple Leafs 4, Capitals 2
Toronto’s offensive firepower and steadier goaltending should secure a moneyline victory.

NHL: Pittsburgh Penguins at New York Rangers

Picks & Wager:

• Penguins +1.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

The New York Rangers enter this matchup in a bit of a slump, largely due to the struggles of former Vezina Trophy winner Igor Shesterkin. Shesterkin has now lost five straight starts, posting an uncharacteristic 3.69 GAA during that stretch. While the Rangers have Jonathan Quick as an option in net, it’s unclear why he hasn’t been given more opportunities considering his strong season thus far.

On the other side, the Penguins are playing their best hockey of the season. Their ability to generate offense, coupled with a surging defensive effort, has made them a tough opponent in recent matchups. Given their current form and the vulnerabilities in New York’s net, this game sets up well for Pittsburgh to at least keep the score close. With a +1.5 goal cushion, bettors have solid insurance in what could be a tightly contested game.

Betting Indicators:

• Shesterkin's Struggles: Five straight losses with a 3.69 GAA in that span.

• Penguins' Momentum: Pittsburgh is playing its best hockey of the season, creating opportunities and tightening defensively.

• Value on +1.5: Offers a margin for error, especially in a game where Pittsburgh could easily stay within one goal or push to overtime.

Final Prediction:

Rangers 3, Penguins 2 (OT)
Pittsburgh continues its strong play and takes advantage of New York’s recent issues in net, keeping the game close enough to cash the +1.5.