Regrouping After Boxing Day Losses: College Bowls, NBA, & NHL

A Boxing Day Beatdown:

There’s no way to sugarcoat it—Boxing Day crushed us. After the Christmas Day miracle, the momentum we hoped to carry forward was quickly snuffed out. It was a tough day, and with only five days left in December, the clock is ticking. But as always, we’re not dwelling on the setback.

Today is another chance to turn things around. There’s still time, and with a diverse slate across multiple sports, we’re ready to attack the board and finish the month strong.

Resilience Through Setbacks:

Sports betting is a rollercoaster, and days like yesterday remind us why discipline and resilience are so critical. The BrownBagBets philosophy isn’t about being perfect every day—it’s about sticking to the process, learning from the losses, and focusing on the long game.

Yes, Boxing Day was a blow, but December isn’t over, and the story isn’t finished. We’ve made comebacks before, and with the right focus and execution, we’ll do it again.

Today’s Slate – A Packed Day of Betting Options:

Four College Bowl Games:

• Another big day for college football, with four bowl games giving us plenty of opportunities to find value and claw back from yesterday’s losses.

• Eight NBA Matchups:

• A solid NBA slate provides a chance to leverage our indicators and focus on high-confidence plays.

Eight NHL Games:

• The NHL offers another avenue to dig into value-rich matchups and diversify today’s betting strategy.

NCAAB Returns Tomorrow:

• While college basketball takes a day off, its return tomorrow adds another layer of excitement as we close out the month.

Final Thought – The Fight Continues:

The Boxing Day massacre is in the rearview. Today is a fresh start, and the path forward is clear: focus, discipline, and execution. With college bowl games, NBA, and NHL on the board, there’s no shortage of opportunities to make today a step in the right direction. Let’s regroup, lock in, and finish strong.

NCAAF - Armed Forces Bowl: Oklahoma vs Navy

Pick: Navy +2.5 / Wager: 4%

Oklahoma’s Decimated Roster

No team has been hit harder by the transfer portal than the Sooners (6-6), who currently have 26 players in the portal. Among the notable absences are QB Jackson Arnold, six receivers, top pass catcher Bauer Sharp (tight end), first team All-SEC linebacker Danny Stutsman, safety Billy Bowman Jr., and leading rusher Jovantae Barnes. With their leading passer, rusher, pass catcher, and tackler unavailable, Oklahoma faces a significant uphill battle, even with a depth advantage.

Navy’s Momentum and Consistency

The Midshipmen (9-3) are wrapping up a strong season, highlighted by a dominant 31-13 win over rival Army. QB Blake Horvath appears healthy after battling a late-season injury and will lead Navy’s triple-option attack, which averages 249.3 rushing yards per game (6th in the nation). Navy’s cohesive roster, intact and energized, contrasts sharply with Oklahoma’s depleted and disjointed lineup.

Key Matchup and Motivation

The question here is whether Oklahoma wants to be in this game. With numerous opt-outs, injuries, and transfer losses, the Sooners appear disinterested and vulnerable. Meanwhile, this is Navy’s first bowl appearance since 2019, and the team is eager to prove themselves against a high-profile SEC opponent. Oklahoma won only one game away from home this season, a fluky comeback at Auburn, while Navy comes in with momentum after dismantling AAC Champion Army.

Projection:
Navy’s disciplined rushing attack and cohesive roster exploit Oklahoma’s lack of depth and motivation. Final score projection: Navy 27, Oklahoma 21.

NCAAF - Birmingham Bowl: Georgia Tech vs Vanderbilt

Pick: Georgia Tech ML / Wager: 4%

Haynes King’s Impact for Georgia Tech

Georgia Tech’s offense is a completely different unit when QB Haynes King is healthy and available. His absence was felt in midseason losses to Notre Dame and VPI, but his return brought renewed competitiveness, including a valiant battle against Georgia in the season finale that stretched into eight painful overtimes. With four weeks to recover, King and the Yellow Jackets are primed for a strong showing in Birmingham, aiming to replicate last December’s bowl success against UCF.

Vanderbilt’s Late-Season Slide

Vanderbilt had an inspiring season with QB Diego Pavia leading the charge, but their momentum faltered down the stretch, losing four of their last five games. While the Commodores performed admirably as underdogs earlier in the season, much of their success came at longer odds than this matchup. Their recent struggles and inconsistent defense make them vulnerable against a rejuvenated Georgia Tech squad.

Matchup and Motivation

Georgia Tech comes into this game with a cohesive and motivated roster, led by a healthy King. Vanderbilt, on the other hand, enters the Birmingham Bowl on shaky footing, lacking the form they showcased earlier in the year. The Yellow Jackets’ ability to rebound and finish strong under head coach Brent Key gives them the edge in this neutral-site clash.

Projection:
Georgia Tech, energized by Haynes King and a month of preparation, takes control in a gritty contest. Final score projection: Georgia Tech 28, Vanderbilt 24.

NCAAF - Liberty Bowl: Texas Tech vs Arkansas

Pick: Over 51.5 / Wager: 4%

High-Scoring Trends and Offensive Potential

Bowl season has seen plenty of overs since Monday, and the Liberty Bowl is poised to follow suit despite some notable absences. Texas Tech will be without QB Behren Morton, while Arkansas misses RB Ja'Quinden Jackson. However, both teams retain enough offensive firepower to deliver a shootout in Memphis.

Arkansas’ Fast-Paced Attack

Dual-threat QB Taylen Green leads a Razorbacks offense that has consistently moved the ball quickly, averaging nearly 500 yards per game. Their ability to push the pace and capitalize on explosive plays makes them a consistent threat to the scoreboard, even without Jackson in the backfield.

Texas Tech’s Recent Over Trend

The Red Raiders hit the over in five of their last six games, showcasing their ability to engage in high-scoring affairs. Head coach Joey McGuire has expressed confidence in freshman QB Will Hammond, who delivered an impressive performance in his audition against TCU in late October. Hammond’s ability to execute against a vulnerable Razorbacks defense adds to the potential for points.

Projection:
Both teams lean on their offensive depth to create scoring opportunities, leading to a high-scoring affair. Final score projection: Arkansas 35, Texas Tech 31.

NCAAF - Holiday Bowl: Syracuse vs Washington State

Pick: Syracuse -15 / Wager: 4%

Washington State’s Depleted Roster

This is not the same Washington State team that competed during the regular season. The Cougars have been gutted by the transfer portal, losing star QB John Mateer (now at Oklahoma) along with several key staff members. Head coach Jake Dickert departed for Wake Forest just nine days before the bowl, leaving interim Pete Kalgis to piece together a team. Zevi Eckhaus, a little-used backup, will step in as QB. This mirrors last year’s LA Bowl, where the Cougars, also hit hard by portal defections, were routed 29-6 by Fresno State.

Syracuse’s Stability and Key Playmakers

In stark contrast, Syracuse has maintained roster stability, with QB Kyle McCord (29 TDP) leading an offense loaded with key weapons. McCord, who leads the nation in passing yards per game (360.5), will have TE Oronde Gadsen, WR Jackson Meeks, and RB LeQuint Allen at his disposal. These players are motivated to end their season on a high note, potentially in their final games for Syracuse. The Orange offense is well-positioned to exploit a Cougars defense ranked 116th in the nation against the pass, allowing 255.3 yards per game.

Mismatch in Momentum and Motivation

Washington State has endured the most turbulent December of any program, with coaching departures and significant roster turnover leaving them in disarray. Meanwhile, Syracuse has a cohesive unit ready to compete, further motivated by the opportunity to dominate against a shorthanded Cougars team. The Orange’s offensive firepower and defensive stability give them a decisive edge in this matchup.

Projection:
Syracuse controls the game from start to finish, leveraging their superior roster and motivated lineup to cruise to a comfortable win. Final score projection: Syracuse 42, Washington State 17.

NCAAF - Las Vegas Bowl: USC vs Texas A&M

Pick: USC +5 / Wager: 4%

USC’s Familiarity and Bowl Game Readiness

USC began their season with a victory over LSU at Allegiant Stadium, the same venue as the Las Vegas Bowl. This familiarity with the environment provides a slight edge in comfort and preparation. Last year’s Holiday Bowl showcased USC’s ability to overcome opt-outs and deliver a strong postseason performance, as Lincoln Riley and his staff motivated the team to compete fiercely against Louisville. This experience demonstrates USC’s readiness to adapt and perform under bowl conditions.

Texas A&M’s Late-Season Struggles

Texas A&M enters the Las Vegas Bowl after losing three of their last four games, including their final three conference matchups. The Aggies have been further weakened by the loss of three starting defensive linemen to the transfer portal, a major blow to what was previously the strength of their defense. These absences leave Texas A&M vulnerable against USC’s dynamic offense.

USC’s Depth and Motivation

While USC has also experienced some roster turnover, their depth remains a significant advantage. Lincoln Riley’s squad has shown the ability to rally and compete, even in the face of challenges. With a deep roster and proven coaching staff, the Trojans are well-positioned to cover the spread and potentially win outright against a depleted Aggies team.

Projection:
USC leverages their familiarity with Allegiant Stadium and depth to edge past Texas A&M in a close contest. Final score projection: USC 31, Texas A&M 28.

NBA: Minnesota Timberwolves at Houston Rockets

Pick: Rockets ML @ +100 / Wager: 4%

Timberwolves’ Inconsistencies

The Timberwolves have shown flashes of brilliance but remain an erratic team. Following their strong Christmas performance against the Mavericks, they are prone to a letdown against a rising Rockets squad. Minnesota’s ATS trends highlight their inconsistency: 6-8 ATS after a win, 8-7 ATS on the road, and 7-9 ATS with one day off. Additionally, they’ve covered in just one of their last four games, signaling a potential vulnerability in this matchup.

Rockets’ Strong Home Form

The Rockets have been excellent at home, covering 9 of their last 11 games ATS. They’ve covered all by at least 3 points, with 7 of those covers being by multiple possessions (including 5 by double digits). Houston thrives against teams with defensive weaknesses, boasting a 17-7 ATS record in such matchups. Their earlier season victory over Minnesota, a 6-point win, further underscores their ability to handle this opponent.

Matchup Momentum

Houston’s upward trajectory and solid home performance provide a stark contrast to Minnesota’s recent struggles. The Rockets' ability to exploit defensive lapses and maintain intensity at home positions them well to secure another win over the Timberwolves.

Projection:
The Rockets capitalize on Minnesota’s inconsistencies and ride their strong home form to victory. Final score projection: Houston 116, Minnesota 109.

NBA: New York Knicks at Orlando Magic

Pick: Magic +7.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Tristan da Silva over 12.5 Points / Wager: 2%

Orlando’s Resilience Despite Injuries

Even shorthanded, Orlando remains a tough matchup. Head coach Jamahl Mosley has navigated injuries to key players like Paolo Banchero, Franz Wagner, and Mo Wagner, yet the Magic have beaten strong teams like the Heat and Celtics in the past week. Last night, they were within one point of beating Miami again. Orlando’s depth has been evident, with four different players leading the team in scoring over the last four games (Anthony Black, Cole Anthony, Tristan da Silva, and Jalen Suggs). This versatility keeps them competitive even against tougher opponents.

Knicks’ Recent Form and Line Movement

The Knicks have been in their best stretch of the season, winning five straight, including a 100-91 win at Orlando on December 15. However, the line for this matchup has shifted significantly, with the Knicks now laying an extra three points compared to their last visit. This adjustment feels excessive, given Orlando’s competitive nature and ability to stay close, even against elite teams.

Tristan da Silva’s Expanded Role

With Banchero and Franz Wagner sidelined, Tristan da Silva has stepped into a larger role, logging at least 32 minutes in four of the last five games. He has scored at least 15 points in all four of those contests, including a 20-point performance against the Knicks in their last meeting. His increased workload and consistent scoring make the over on 12.5 points a strong play.

Projection:
Orlando keeps this game competitive, covering the +7.5 spread, while da Silva delivers another strong offensive performance. Final score projection: Knicks 102, Magic 98.

NBA: Golden State Warriors at Los Angeles Clippers

Pick: Clippers ML / Wager: 4%

Golden State’s Defensive Decline

The Warriors have struggled significantly in their last 14 games, going 3-11 and showing a clear drop-off in performance. Once anchored by strong defense early in the season, Golden State now ranks just 21st in defensive rating for December, with a -6.7 +/- margin. They have regularly allowed 104+ points, leaving their defensive identity in question.

Clippers’ Home Dominance

The Clippers have thrived at home, covering 9 of their last 12 games ATS. They have already defeated the Warriors twice this season and boast a 7-2 ATS record as favorites, including 5-2 ATS as home favorites. Their 10-6 ATS record at home further demonstrates their ability to perform well in familiar territory. While their recent form has been inconsistent (1-4 ATS in their last 5), the Clippers remain a reliable play at home, especially against struggling teams like the Warriors.

Matchup Trends and Edge

Golden State has not fared well as an underdog, particularly when given just a few points. Conversely, the Clippers have capitalized on these situations, beating division rivals and weaker defensive teams with consistency. This game represents a prime opportunity for Los Angeles to assert dominance and capitalize on Golden State’s struggles.

Projection:
The Clippers leverage their home advantage and superior recent form to edge out the Warriors. Final score projection: Los Angeles 112, Golden State 106.