Christmas Miracle: Boxing Day EPL & College Bowls Await

Yesterday’s Results – A Christmas Day Miracle!
What a day! Yesterday delivered exactly what we needed—a 7% bankroll gain, stacking on top of the previous day’s wins. December may have tried to knock us down, but let’s be clear: December hasn’t won.

We’re clawing our way back, and today, we sit at 91% of our starting bankroll. While we’re not exactly where we want to be, the progress is undeniable, and the hope is very much alive. This is what resilience looks like, and we’re not done yet.

Belief, Hope, and Execution:
The BrownBagBets philosophy is built for moments like these. It’s not about perfection—it’s about staying disciplined, making adjustments, and clawing our way back, one calculated play at a time.

With only a few days left in December, the focus remains on progress. We’re proving once again that with the right strategy and mindset, there’s always a way forward. Let’s carry this momentum into today and beyond.

Today’s Slate – Boxing Day Brings Opportunities Galore:

• EPL Boxing Day Action:

  • One of the most exciting days on the soccer calendar, Boxing Day delivers a full slate of Premier League matchups. With value on the board, it’s a chance to diversify and attack.

• College Bowl Games:

  • Two bowl games provide more opportunities to build on our recent success and close out December strong.

• NBA, NHL, and NCAAB:

  • The holiday week continues with packed slates across multiple sports, offering plenty of options to dig into and leverage our indicators.

Final Thought – The Fight Isn’t Over:
December hasn’t been easy, but the story isn’t finished yet. With 91% of our starting bankroll, a Boxing Day EPL slate, bowl games, and more, the stage is set for us to continue clawing back. Let’s keep the momentum rolling and finish this month the way we know we can.

English Premier League: Tottenham Hotspur at Nottingham Forest

Pick: Tottenham over 1.5 goals @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Analysis

Tottenham has been firing on all cylinders offensively, consistently finding the back of the net regardless of opposition. In their last three league fixtures, Spurs have scored three or more goals, demonstrating their attacking prowess and ability to generate high-quality chances. Even in their 6-3 loss to Liverpool, the Spurs attack proved potent, netting three goals against one of the league's stronger defenses. This resilience in scoring positions them well to deliver a similar output against Nottingham Forest.

On the defensive side, Nottingham Forest has been far from sturdy. They’ve conceded at least two goals in four of their last six Premier League matches and are allowing an average of 1.38 goals per match this season. At home, Forest’s defense often struggles to contain fluid attacking teams, and Tottenham’s high tempo and clinical finishing make them an excellent candidate to exploit those weaknesses.

With key players like Son Heung-min and James Maddison driving the attack, and the supporting cast delivering consistently, Tottenham is well-equipped to clear this relatively modest total of 1.5 goals.

English Premier League: 2-Team MoneyLine Parlay

Pick: Manchester City ML + Manchester United ML @ +140 / Wager: 2%

Manchester City Bounces Back at Home

Enough is enough for Manchester City. A home fixture against a struggling Everton side is the perfect scenario for Pep Guardiola’s squad to reassert their dominance. Everton has managed just 14 goals in their last 18 league matches and has struggled to threaten consistently in the attacking third. City’s potent attack, coupled with their stingy defense, ensures they’ll control possession and dictate the match tempo. Look for City to score early and cruise to a comfortable win at the Etihad, where they remain one of the toughest teams to beat in Europe.

Manchester United Capitalizes on Wolves’ Inconsistency

While Wolves are coming off a resounding win over Everton, consistency remains their Achilles’ heel. They lead the league in goals conceded, and despite moments of brilliance, their defensive lapses continue to cost them. Wolves have lost 6 of their last 8 home matches, conceding in bunches against superior sides. Against Manchester United, their recent form is abysmal—four losses in their last five meetings, managing only one goal in that span. United’s attack should find plenty of opportunities to exploit Wolves’ vulnerabilities and secure the second leg of this parlay.

Projection:
Manchester City wins decisively, 3-0, while Manchester United grinds out a 2-0 victory over Wolves. This parlay offers strong value as both teams handle their business against inferior opponents, cashing the +140 ticket.

English Premier League: Crystal Palace at Bournemouth

Pick: Bournemouth ML @ +105 / Wager: 2%

Bournemouth's Unstoppable Form

The Cherries are riding a wave of momentum, with four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This stretch includes an emphatic 3-0 win over Manchester United, catapulting them into the Premier League’s top five. Bournemouth's current run reflects both confidence and tactical precision, making them a formidable opponent at the Vitality Stadium.

Crystal Palace's Defensive Vulnerabilities

Crystal Palace, sitting precariously at 16th, continues to struggle. Back-to-back losses to Arsenal have exposed glaring defensive weaknesses, with multiple goals conceded in recent outings. These frailties are ripe for exploitation by Bournemouth's in-form attack, spearheaded by the dynamic Semenyo, who has been pivotal in converting chances into goals.

Home Advantage and Value on the Moneyline

Bournemouth's success at home has been a cornerstone of their rise this season. Playing at the Vitality Stadium has provided a psychological and tactical edge, with the team thriving on familiar ground. The moneyline odds of +105 undervalue Bournemouth’s advantages in form, venue, and matchup dynamics, offering a prime opportunity for bettors to capitalize.

Projection:
Bournemouth capitalizes on their form and home-field advantage to secure a 2-1 victory over Crystal Palace. Expect Semenyo to play a critical role in breaking down Palace's defensive line, sealing the value at +105.

English Premier League: Manchester United at Wolverhampton

Pick: Both Teams to Score / Wager: 2%

Wolves' Defensive Vulnerabilities and Offensive Resilience

In their last eight matches, Wolves have seen over 2.5 goals in seven instances, with both teams scoring in five of those games. They’ve conceded the first goal in six of these matches, highlighting defensive vulnerabilities but also showcasing their ability to respond offensively.

Manchester United's Similar Patterns

The Red Devils mirror Wolves in recent form, with over 2.5 goals in seven of their last eight matches and both teams scoring in five. Defensive lapses have been evident, as they’ve allowed goals in six of these matches and often been the first to concede.

Historical Trends and Matchup Dynamics

Encounters between Wolves and Manchester United are historically competitive, with several past meetings featuring both teams on the scoresheet. While United claimed a 2-0 win over Wolves in the 2023/2024 season, prior seasons included tighter results like 1-1 draws and 2-1 games.

Statistical Indicators

Both teams’ recent defensive frailties point toward a high likelihood of goals at both ends. Wolves have conceded an average of 2.2 goals per match in their last ten games, while Manchester United has allowed 1.5 goals per match over the same period. On the attacking side, Wolves have averaged 1.9 goals per match, with key players delivering consistently, while United's dynamic forward line has averaged 1.8 goals per match.

Projection:
Expect a competitive, back-and-forth contest with both teams finding the net. Final score projection: 2-1 Manchester United.

English Premier League: Leicester City at Liverpool

Pick: Liverpool -2.5 / Wager: 2%

Unstoppable Attack at Anfield

Liverpool enters this match as the Premier League leaders, boasting 43 points from 17 matches and averaging an impressive 2.65 goals per game. Their dominance at Anfield is unmatched, with 8 wins and a draw, fueled by 26 goals in 9 home matches (2.89 per game). On the defensive end, they've conceded just 5 goals at home, underscoring their fortress-like performance. With an xG of 2.45 per match, Liverpool consistently generates high-quality chances that translate into goals.

In contrast, Leicester's defense has been a liability, conceding 37 goals this season—the third-most in the league—and an abysmal 22 goals in just 8 away matches (2.75 per game). Liverpool’s attack, spearheaded by Mohamed Salah (14 goals, 9 assists), alongside Darwin Núñez and Luis Díaz, is primed to exploit Leicester’s fragile backline.

Set-Piece Dominance and High Turnovers

Leicester has conceded 7 goals from set-pieces this season, while Liverpool thrives in this area. The duo of Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold ensures that Liverpool maximizes these opportunities. Moreover, Liverpool’s relentless high press, leading the league in turnovers forced in advanced positions, poses a nightmare for Leicester, whose struggles under pressure frequently result in giveaways in dangerous areas.

Historical and Recent Trends

Liverpool has dominated Leicester in recent years, winning their last 4 meetings with a combined score of 11-1, including a 3-0 triumph at the King Power Stadium. Additionally, Boxing Day fixtures have been kind to Liverpool, with a +14 goal differential in their last 5 matches during this period. They’ve scored 3 or more goals in 5 of their last 7 league games, while Leicester has conceded 3 or more in 3 of their last 5. Liverpool’s average margin of victory at Anfield this season is 2.6 goals—an ominous stat for a Leicester side that has lost by 3 or more goals in 4 of their away matches.

Bet Recommendation:
Take Liverpool -2.5.
Liverpool's attacking firepower, dominance at Anfield, and Leicester's glaring defensive vulnerabilities align perfectly for a statement win. Expect Liverpool to extend their lead at the top of the table with another high-scoring performance.

Betting Indicators

1. Tottenham’s Recent Scoring Form: Spurs have scored 3+ goals in three consecutive league fixtures, showcasing their offensive momentum.

2. Nottingham’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: Forest has allowed 2+ goals in four of their last six matches and has struggled to contain higher-caliber attacking teams.

3. Head-to-Head Dynamics: Tottenham has found success against defensively inconsistent teams like Forest, leveraging their pace and technical precision in the final third.

4. Value Play: The +105 price offers good value given Tottenham’s recent form and Forest’s defensive struggles.

Projection

Expect Tottenham to dictate the pace of the game and capitalize on Nottingham Forest’s defensive lapses. Spurs’ dynamic attacking options should easily create multiple scoring opportunities, and their recent form indicates a strong likelihood of converting those chances.

Final Projection: Tottenham 3, Nottingham Forest 1.

NCAAF - Rate Bowl: Rutgers vs Kansas State

Pick: Rutgers +7 / Wager: 3%

Offensive Adjustments Without Star RBs

Both offenses relied heavily on their running backs this season—D.J. Giddens for Kansas State and Kyle Monangai for Rutgers. With both players out, each team will need to adjust. Rutgers appears better positioned to pivot under head coach Greg Schiano, whose experience and adaptability shine in postseason scenarios.

Schiano’s Bowl Game Expertise

Greg Schiano holds an impressive 6-2 outright record in bowl games, giving Rutgers a clear edge in preparation and game management. Unlike Kansas State, which faces the challenge of reigniting their motivation after falling short of a Big 12 title, Rutgers is playing with a clear focus and no lingering end-of-season slump.

Turnover Discipline and Offensive Growth

Rutgers boasts just eight turnovers all season, the second-fewest in the FBS, reflecting their disciplined approach. This efficiency pairs with an offense that averaged 27.9 points per game, a notable improvement over their usual production. Kansas State may have more raw talent, but Rutgers’ discipline and consistent execution make them a formidable underdog.

Projection:

Rutgers stays within the number, leveraging Schiano’s coaching and their disciplined playstyle. Final score projection: Kansas State 27, Rutgers 23.

NCAAF - GameAbove Bowl: Pittsburgh vs. Toledo

Pick: Toledo +7.5 / Wager: 4%

Analysis

The GameAbove Bowl presents a compelling matchup between Pittsburgh and Toledo, but recent trends and situational factors tilt heavily in favor of the Rockets. Pittsburgh began the season 7-0 but faltered down the stretch, losing five straight games. Their early-season success masked underlying issues, as several wins were decided by narrow margins. Now, the Panthers face additional uncertainty at quarterback. Starter Eli Holstein missed much of November due to a leg injury, and his availability remains unclear. If he’s unavailable, Pittsburgh may have to rely on redshirt freshman David Lynch, who has just nine career pass attempts. Backup Nate Yarnell has already entered the transfer portal, leaving the Panthers thin at the position.

Toledo, on the other hand, brings consistency and momentum. Quarterback Tucker Gleason has thrown 22 touchdowns with zero interceptions over his last three games, giving the Rockets a reliable offensive weapon. While leading rusher Peny Boone has transferred, Jacquez Stuart should step up as a capable replacement, averaging 4.7 yards per carry this season. Toledo’s defense has also been solid, holding opponents to 21.3 points per game and giving them the tools to limit a potentially inexperienced Panthers offense.

Regional proximity could also play a role, as Toledo fans only have a short trip to Ford Field in Detroit, creating a pseudo-home environment for the Rockets. With Pitt trending downward and potential quarterback instability, Toledo has a clear path to cover—and possibly win outright.

Betting Indicators

1. Line Movement: The spread opened at Pitt -9 and has shifted to -7, indicating sharp money backing Toledo.

2. Quarterback Concerns: Pittsburgh may be forced to start their third-string QB, redshirt freshman David Lynch.

3. Toledo's Offensive Consistency: Tucker Gleason’s 22 touchdowns and no picks in his last three games highlight the Rockets' reliable offense.

4. Regional Edge: With the game being played in Detroit, Toledo benefits from a stronger local presence and shorter travel.

Projection

Expect Toledo’s balanced offensive attack and solid defense to exploit Pittsburgh’s issues at quarterback and lack of momentum. The Rockets should keep this game within the spread, if not win outright.

Final Score Projection: Toledo 27, Pittsburgh 24.

NFL: Seattle Seahawks at Chicago Bears

Pick: Over 42.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Seahawks -3 / Wager: 3%
Pick: Tyrice Knight over 6.5 total tackles and assists / Wager: 3%
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba over 70.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Geno Smith over 1.5 TDs @ +115 / Wager: 2%

Chicago's Defensive Struggles Continue

Under interim head coach Thomas Brown, the Bears have been outscored 64-14 in first halves over three games, exposing their inability to compete early. The Bears’ defense, already one of the weakest in the league, has regressed further, struggling to defend both the run and pass. Chicago has given up over 30 points in 4 of their last 5 games, while Seattle’s offense, led by Geno Smith, has been effective against weaker opponents, averaging 28.5 points in their last four victories.

Seattle's Passing Game and Matchup Advantages

Jaxon Smith-Njigba has become the centerpiece of Seattle’s offense, leading the team with 32 more targets than any other Seahawk since Week 8. His production has been consistent, with at least 74 receiving yards in seven straight games, making him a reliable target for Geno Smith. Chicago’s inability to defend motion and slot receivers adds to JSN’s advantage, as the Bears have allowed significant production to similar players. Geno Smith, despite only throwing for multiple TDs once on the road this season, is positioned to exploit a Chicago defense that has allowed this in 4 of their last 5 games.

Tyrice Knight's Emerging Role

Seahawks rookie linebacker Tyrice Knight continues to impress, recording at least seven combined tackles in 5 of his 6 starts. With Chicago’s fast-paced offense (63.3 plays per game, 5th-fastest tempo), Knight will have ample opportunities to add to his tackle total, especially with the Bears relying heavily on their running backs and inside receivers.

Seattle’s Dominance Over Lesser Teams

The Seahawks excel against subpar competition, with a 5-2-1 ATS record against losing teams and an average margin of victory of 10 points in such games. Their ability to take care of business is evident in all eight of their wins, which have come by at least three points. Chicago, on the other hand, has lost 10 straight games and trailed by double digits at halftime in all three games under Brown.

Projection:
Seattle dominates this matchup with a 31-17 victory. Expect the Seahawks to clear the total comfortably, cover the spread with ease, and see individual player props (JSN, Knight, and Geno Smith) hitting as they exploit the Bears' numerous weaknesses.

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NBA: Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers

Pick: Thunder -4 / Wager: 3%

Pacers’ Home Struggles

The Pacers have played solid basketball on the road, but their home performances have been lackluster. Their +1.9 home net rating ranks just 16th in the league, and they’ve recently lost at home to lowly teams like the Pistons and Hornets. Additionally, Indiana is 1-5 ATS in their last six home games, failing to cover against teams like New Orleans, Washington, and Portland. They’ve struggled against the West, posting an 11-14-1 ATS record in those matchups.

Thunder’s Road Dominance

Oklahoma City has been exceptional on the road, covering 6 of their last 9 games ATS and boasting an 8-4-1 ATS record as a road favorite. They’ve also thrived against Eastern Conference teams, going 5-1-2 ATS in their last eight matchups. Their +10.9 road net rating is the second-best in the NBA, reflecting their strong play in hostile environments.

Key Trends and Balanced Attack

The Thunder’s balanced offense has been too much for teams like the Pacers to handle. They are 4-2 ATS when favored by five points or less, with one of those misses coming by just 0.5 points. Notably, Oklahoma City’s last nine wins have all been by at least six points, emphasizing their ability to finish games decisively.

Projection:

Oklahoma City extends their road success with a balanced offensive performance, securing a 118-108 victory over Indiana and covering the -4 spread comfortably.

NBA: Miami Heat at Orlando Magic

Pick: Under 208.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Tristan da Silva over 11.5 Points / Wager: 2%

Defensive Identity and Recent Trends

Orlando’s defense and rebounding have been the backbone of their success this season, even amid injuries to key players like Paolo Banchero and the Wagner brothers. This defensive focus has led to the Magic hitting the under in three of their last four home games (with the sole exception being last Friday's game against Miami). Jamahl Mosley’s ability to motivate his team and rely on a balanced effort from players like Anthony Black, Cole Anthony, and Tristan da Silva keeps Orlando competitive but often in low-scoring battles.

Meanwhile, Miami’s offense has been inconsistent, especially with Jimmy Butler likely out again tonight. In their previous meeting, Miami struggled mightily in the 4th quarter, scoring only 8 points against Orlando’s suffocating defense. The Heat’s deliberate pace and defensive mindset also lend themselves to lower-scoring games, particularly against an Orlando team that thrives on limiting easy buckets.

Spotlight on Tristan da Silva

With Orlando’s primary scorers sidelined, rookie Tristan da Silva has stepped up as a reliable offensive option. Against a Miami defense that funnels action toward spot-up shooters (3rd most points allowed on 6th highest frequency), da Silva is poised for another productive night. The Magic will look to him for consistent scoring opportunities, and his recent form suggests he can capitalize. Without Banchero and the Wagners, Orlando’s offensive adjustments will prioritize da Silva’s ability to find open looks and exploit mismatches.

Projection:
Expect a slow-paced, defensive grind between two teams missing key offensive contributors.

Final score projection: Orlando 102, Miami 98. Tristan da Silva exceeds expectations with a 15-point outing, comfortably hitting the over on his points prop.

NBA: Charlotte Hornets at Washington Wizards

Pick: Over 226.5 / Wager: 2%

Defensive Woes and High Scoring Potential

When these two teams met in Charlotte earlier this season, they combined for 237 points. Both teams have shown little interest in playing defense—Washington allows an abysmal 123 points per game at home, while Charlotte gives up 116 points per game on the road. Neither team is contending for anything meaningful, and their defensive struggles make them prime candidates for another shootout.

Pace of Play and Scoring Trends

The Wizards play at the NBA’s 4th fastest pace, and while the Hornets rank 26th in pace overall, they jump to league average on the road as they’re forced to chase points. Both teams are well-rested heading into this matchup, which should translate to plenty of up-and-down basketball. Washington’s home games average 233 points, and the Wizards are 5-1 to the over when the total is between 224.5 and 230 points.

Key Players and Recent Trends

LaMelo Ball is poised for a big game, and his playmaking ability could even spark a triple-double performance. With the Wizards’ inability to defend and their tendency to turn games into track meets, Ball should thrive. Both teams have the offensive talent to capitalize on transition opportunities and weak defensive matchups, making the over an attractive play.

Projection:
A fast-paced, high-scoring affair ends with both teams easily surpassing the total. Final score projection: Wizards 123, Hornets 118.

NBA: Chicago Bulls at Atlanta Hawks

Pick: Bulls +6.5 / Wager: 2%
Pick: Nikola Vucevic over 1.5 3-Pointers Made / Wager: 2%
Pick: Dyson Daniels over 2.5 steals @ +120 / Wager: 2%

Dyson Daniels’ Defensive Dominance

Dyson Daniels has been a defensive force, racking up 14 steals over his last two games. He’s averaging 3.2 steals per game this season, showcasing his ability to disrupt opposing offenses. The Bulls’ third-fastest pace in the league has contributed to their 15.1 turnovers per game, making them an ideal opponent for Daniels. He’s already recorded six steals in one matchup and four in another against Chicago this season. With this history and favorable odds, the over on steals offers significant value.

Nikola Vucevic’s Deep Threat

Nikola Vucevic bounced back from a poor showing against the Celtics by hitting two of eight three-point attempts against the Bucks on Monday. Shooting 45.2% from deep this season, he’s made at least two three-pointers in 12 of his last 15 games. Against the Hawks, Vucevic has consistently delivered, making two three-pointers in both matchups this season. His role as a stretch big will be critical in this game, and the over on his threes is a strong play.

Bulls’ Road Resilience

Post-holiday games often present opportunities for teams to reset, and the Bulls are positioned well to bounce back after back-to-back blowout losses to Milwaukee and Boston. Their road form has been much better, winning their last three away games outright. Notably, the Bulls have already beaten Atlanta twice this season, including a 125-113 victory on the road. Chicago’s ability to play competitively against Atlanta makes them a solid pick to cover the spread.

Projection:
The Bulls keep this game close, potentially winning outright, with a final score projection of Atlanta 118, Chicago 115. Expect Daniels to notch three or more steals, and Vucevic to knock down at least two three-pointers, delivering strong value on both props.

NBA: Toronto Raptors at Memphis Grizzlies

Pick: Grizzlies -11.5 / Wager: 2%

Toronto’s Recent Struggles

While the Raptors have been a profitable team in many spots this season, their recent form raises concerns. Toronto has a habit of falling behind early, frequently facing deficits of 20+ points. This has led to them covering just 1 of their last 4 games. On the road, they are a modest 8-6 ATS, but as double-digit underdogs, they’ve struggled, going 2-5 ATS in their last seven opportunities.

Memphis’ Dominance at Home and After Losses

The Grizzlies have been a covering machine, going 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games. Their recent covers have been emphatic, with margins of 14.5, 49, 6, 18, and 13 points. Memphis has been especially reliable after a loss, boasting an 8-1 ATS record in such situations. At home, they’re equally strong, covering in 10 of 15 games (10-5 ATS) and winning by an average margin of 12.3 points. Their offense has been electric, averaging 122 points per game at home.

Key Trends Favor Memphis

The Grizzlies’ dominance against Eastern Conference teams is another factor, as they’ve gone 12-3 ATS in those matchups. Combining their home dominance, strong bounce-back ability, and Toronto’s recent struggles, Memphis has all the tools to comfortably cover the spread.

NBA: Utah Jazz at Portland Trail Blazers

Pick: Blazers ML / Wager: 3%

Portland’s Home Advantage

While neither team has had a great season, the Trail Blazers have shown they can hold their own at home with a 6-7 record. Portland enters this matchup with most of their key players healthy, save for Robert Williams III (ankle) and Dalano Banton (hip), who remain questionable. In contrast, the Jazz will be without several key contributors, including John Collins (hip), Jordan Clarkson (foot), and Keyonte George (ankle). This leaves Utah shorthanded and heavily reliant on their remaining roster.

Jazz’s Road Struggles and Key Absences

Utah has been inconsistent at best, and the absence of three of their top players further diminishes their chances. Without Clarkson, Collins, and George, the Jazz lack offensive firepower and depth. Their struggles on the road compound their issues, making this an uphill battle against a Blazers team looking to capitalize on their healthier roster and home-court advantage.

A Must-Win Spot for Portland

This is a crucial opportunity for Portland to secure a victory against a depleted Jazz team. If the Blazers can’t win at home in this scenario, serious questions would arise about their competitiveness this season. Portland has the pieces to pull through, and their home-court energy should be enough to edge past a weakened Utah squad.

Projection:
Portland takes advantage of Utah’s absences and delivers a solid home performance, earning a 112-104 victory.