Redefining the Game: Adjusting the Algorithm for NCAAM Over/Unders
Welcome to another exciting day at BrownBagBets! Last night, the NBA was our saving grace, helping us navigate through a challenging evening with some positive outcomes. However, it wasn’t our best night in NCAA basketball, but that’s just part of the game. We’ve taken this as an opportunity to refine our approach. After a thorough post-mortem analysis, which is a crucial part of our daily routine, we’ve identified a promising strategy for tonight’s NCAA games. This level of detailed review and adaptation is what sets BrownBagBets apart.
We’re integrating two specific metrics from KenPom into our already robust college basketball algorithm. This tweak, we believe, will give us an edge and help boost our bankroll. So, let’s dive into tonight’s games with this enhances approach and watch the results unfold. Remember, constant evaluation and adaptation are key to staying ahead in the sports betting world, and we’re all about that at BrownBagBets!
NCAAM Plays:
Chattanooga @ Lipscomb, 12 PM
Pick: Under 152.5 / Wager 5% Bankroll
Central CT State @ Army, 4 Pm
Pick: over 127.5. / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Dartmouth @ University of Vermont, 7 PM
Pick: over 133.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Stoney Brook @ Yale, 7 PM
Pick: over 138.5 / Wager 3% bankroll
Maine @ Holy Cross, 7 PM
Pick: over 134.5 / Wager 3% Bankroll
Wichita State @ Richmond, 7:30 PM
Pick: Witchita State ML / Wager 3% Bankroll
Davidson @ Charlotte, 8 PM
Pick: over 123 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
University of North Florida @ Iowa, 9PM
Pick: Under 166.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
TXAMCC @ UTEP, 9 PM
Pick: under 145 / wager: 3% Bankroll
ACC/SEC Challenge Plays
Texas A&M @ Virginia, 7:30 PM
Pick: over 126.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
This game not only flags for the enhanced approach we are applying tonight to over/under, but also just so happens to be a monster match up within the ACC/SEC Challenge. In this highly anticipated matchup, we're eyeing the under as the smart play. The Texas A&M Aggies have shown commendable growth offensively, but they're about to face their toughest challenge yet against the Virginia Cavaliers' formidable defense. The Cavaliers rank 12th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, presenting a significant hurdle for the Aggies, who, despite their offensive prowess, have struggled with 3-point shooting, hitting only 29% from beyond the arc.
Virginia's defense excels in perimeter containment, which could further exacerbate the Aggies' shooting woes. Additionally, the Aggies' slower tempo and reliance on efficient use of their offensive possessions will likely result in a game with fewer scoring opportunities. While Wade Taylor IV's performance could be a game-changer, his current 27% shooting from the three-point line doesn't instill confidence against Virginia's stingy defense.
On the other side, Virginia's offense, known for its deliberate pace, aligns perfectly with a strategy that favors the under. Their methodical approach, combined with struggles in free-throw shooting and a below-par 2-point FG%, suggests limited scoring potential. This approach, coupled with their top-tier defense, particularly in 2-point defense and in creating turnovers, sets the stage for a low-scoring affair.
Both teams' defensive strengths and offensive challenges, particularly in the context of Virginia's homecourt advantage, point towards a game where points will be hard to come by. Expect a tightly contested battle, with defense overshadowing offense, making the under an attractive and logical choice for bettors looking for value in this matchup.
Duke @ Arkansas, 9 PM
Pick: Arkansas +5.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
At BrownBagBets, we’re setting our sights on Arkansas covering the spread at +5.5. You didn’t think we’d let tonight come and go without leaning into a couple of these heavy weight matchups did you? Despite a rocky start to the season, the Razorbacks have shown resilience and potential, particularly in their home environment at Bud Walton Arena. This setting often brings out the best in teams, especially when they’re hungry for a turnaround, and we believe Arkansas is just that – hungry and capable.
The Razorbacks’ offense, while not at its peak, still holds significant promise. They’ve been adept at drawing fouls and getting to the free-throw line, a key strategy against a team like Duke. With Khalif Battle’s sharpshooting, especially from beyond the arc, Arkansas has a reliable offensive weapon. This, coupled with their aggressive defense – marked by a high block percentage and strong rebounding – positions them well to challenge Duke’s inside game and limit their second-chance points.
Arkansas’ ability to maintain a fast tempo could disrupt Duke’s rhythm, forcing them out of their comfort zone. The absence of Tramon Mark is notable, but we’re confident in the Razorbacks’ depth and ability to adapt. Given these factors, the +5.5 line for Arkansas not only seems reasonable but also presents a valuable opportunity. We’re backing the Hogs to rise to the occasion, leveraging their home-court advantage and defensive strengths to cover the spread.
NHL Play of the Day:
Capitals @ Kings, 10:30 PM
Pick: Kings -1.5 @ +120 / Wager: 4% Bankroll
NBA Plays:
Lakers @ Pistons, 7 PM
Pick: Anthony Davis over 23.5 points / Wager 3% bankroll
We’ve been tracking this number since the early morning, and it’s rising, let’s grab it now as we think the movement is screaming to us. He’s eclipsed 26 in 3 of the his last 5.
Magic @ Wizards, 7 PM
Pick: Magic -10 / Wager 2% Bankroll
This one is pretty simply, the Wizards are not very good. Orlando has been a money making machine for sports bettors, covering 7 straight and 9 out of 10.
Suns @ Raptors, 8 PM
Pick: Pascal Siakam over 21.5 points / Wager 2% Bankroll
Suns love to push the rock, which will enable Siakam to hit this number by the end of the 3rd quarter.
Pick: Kevin Durant over 4.5 assists / Wager: 2% Bankroll
Durant has hit this number4 of his last 5 games.
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