November Finale: Thrilling Matchups Across NFL, NCAA, NBA, and NHL

As November draws to a close, we're gearing up for an exhilarating night filled with top-tier sports action, headlined by the NFL showdown between the Seahawks and Cowboys and the NCAA basketball spotlight on Texas Tech vs. Butler. It's a night brimming with potential, featuring a carefully curated selection of NBA and NHL games to add to the excitement. We're riding high on the wave of success from our newly refined NCAA algorithm, which proved its mettle last night, and our spot-on NBA picks that swept the board clean. This surge in our performance has brilliantly recouped some of our recent bankroll dips, injecting a fresh dose of optimism into our strategy. As we bid farewell to November, we're not just celebrating the wins of the past; we're looking ahead with renewed vigor and focus. Tonight is not just another evening of games; it's our launching pad into December, where we aim to keep this winning streak alive and thriving. Let's dive into tonight's action with the confidence and enthusiasm that has become the hallmark of our community here at BrownBagBets. Here's to ending November on a high note and stepping into a new month with our bankroll poised for even greater successes! 🌟🏀🏒🏈

NFL Thursday Night Football

Seahawks @ Cowboys, 8:15 PM

Pick: Cowboys -8.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Over 47.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Tony Pollard over 62.5 yards rushing / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Tony Pollard over 88.5 rushing + receiving / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Jaxon Smith - Njigba over 47.5 receiving / Wager: 4% Bankroll

The stage is set for a standout performance from rookie wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba in the Seahawks' clash with the Cowboys. Growing up as a Cowboys fan just 40 minutes from AT&T Stadium, this game is more than just another matchup for JSN; it's a homecoming. With the Seahawks likely to be in a position where they need to catch up, JSN is poised for an increased number of targets, especially considering he faces a favorable matchup against Jourdan Lewis, while his teammates Metcalf and Lockett contend with tougher opponents. This scenario mirrors the recent success of Commanders' slot receiver Curtis Samuel, who racked up 100 receiving yards against Dallas. JSN's ascent is timely, and we expect him to shine in this pivotal game. This prop combined with Tony Pollard running wild is really what helps us rationalize the over here as well.

Turning our attention to the Cowboys, they have consistently demonstrated their ability to not just cover large spreads but to do so with substantial margins. Their recent track record of dominating lesser teams, coupled with an average winning margin of 30 points over the last three games, underscores their prowess. The Seahawks, reeling from a significant loss to the 49ers and hampered by Geno Smith's less than optimal health, seem ill-equipped to counter the Cowboys' momentum. With Kenneth Walker III sidelined, the Seahawks' challenges only mount, particularly against a robust Dallas defense.

Focusing on Tony Pollard, his potential in this game is immense, facing the NFL's 20th ranked defense in yards allowed per carry. Pollard's versatility and recent form, both as a rusher and a receiver, position him to be a central figure in the Cowboys' offensive strategy. His ability to exploit Seattle's defensive vulnerabilities, especially their struggles with tackling, sets the stage for a significant performance. With the Cowboys' run game gaining momentum and Pollard's efficiency on the rise, we see him surpassing the 62.5 yards rushing mark comfortably, capitalizing on a Seattle defense that has been increasingly susceptible to the run.

NCAA Basketball

Texas Tech @ Butler, 7 PM

Pick: Texas Tech +2.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Is the wrong team favored here? Our deep dive into this game’s potential sure leads us to believe so. The line moving to 2.5 though is just too much for us to go against vs a ML play. In tonight's matchup, Texas Tech's strengths in defensive and offensive efficiency are key factors in our decision to back them. The Red Raiders, ranking 13th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency and 99th in Adjusted Offensive Efficiency, have a knack for controlling the game's pace, a crucial advantage in tight contests. Their defensive prowess is expected to pose significant challenges for Butler, particularly in the paint.

Offensively, Texas Tech has room for improvement, especially in their 3-point shooting, where they've been hitting only 27.4% from beyond the arc. Despite this, players like Devan Cambridge, Darrion Williams, and Pop Isaacs have shown potential, each shooting at least 33% from the outside last season. This suggests an imminent turnaround that could significantly impact any game.

Furthermore, Texas Tech excels in drawing fouls and dominating the boards, adding to their ability to control the game's flow. Their current struggle with selecting the right 3-point shots, as indicated by their 188th rank in Open 3 Rate, is an area for improvement. However, their proficiency in scoring at the rim, where they rank 57th in points per possession, indicates a strategic shift towards driving the ball could be beneficial.

Considering these factors, along with the relatively even matchup between the two teams and the potentially diminished impact of Butler's home court advantage, we recommend taking the Red Raiders in this game. Their superior defense and potential for offensive improvement make them a solid pick.

New Orleans @ Minnesota, 7 PM

Pick: Minnesota +12 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

In tonight's game, Minnesota's prospects look promising despite the apparent talent gap between them and New Orleans. While it's true that New Orleans Head Coach Mark Slessinger has had a mixed track record over his tenure, with only one standout team in 11 years and several others languishing in the lower rankings, this year's team appears to be following a similar pattern. Their most notable victory to date has been against the 342nd ranked Central Arkansas, and they've suffered a disappointing loss to the 242nd ranked North Dakota.

On the other hand, Minnesota's performance this season, though not spectacular, has shown more promise. They haven't secured a win against teams ranked higher than 300, but their losses have been against considerably stronger teams. They narrowly lost to Missouri by just two points and faced a tough game at San Francisco, both teams ranking between 70 and 80. This suggests that Minnesota is capable of holding its own against more formidable opponents.

Our analysis and model predict a more favorable outcome for Minnesota, suggesting they could outperform expectations by a significant margin. Given these factors, we see value in backing Minnesota at +12, as they have demonstrated the potential to compete more effectively than their record might initially suggest.

Delaware State @ Chicago State, 8 PM

Pick: Chicago State ML @ -160 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

Transparency - Honesty - Openess - these are the words that our leadership at BrownBagBets aspires to model the behaviors of each and every day. And in that vein - we will shoot it straight on this one. We know ZERO about either of these teams other then the fact that the history on Chicago State is that they are never really good. What we do know is that they have 2 players who average 30 points a game, headlined by Wesley Cardet, who is currently projected as a 2024 NBA second-round pick, alongside Jahsean Corbett, forms a formidable duo.

On the other side, Delaware State's performance has been less than stellar. Their victories have come against SWAC schools, which, in terms of competitive level, are often considered akin to Division II. This record suggests a vulnerability that Chicago State could exploit.

Liberty @ Florida Atlantic University (FAU), 6:00 PM

Pick: FAU -7.5 / Wager 2% Bankroll

Pick: Over 143 / Wager 2% Bankroll

In tonight's eagerly anticipated matchup between Liberty and FAU, our decision to back FAU at -7.5 and take the over at 143 is deeply rooted in our model's analysis, coupled with some intriguing late developments. It's important to be transparent with our community: there's been a bit of internal debate regarding the spread in this game. However, after thorough consideration, we're aligning with our model's findings. The model's simulation shows an average spread probability of 69.0%, a stark contrast to the consensus odds implied probability of 52.4%. This significant discrepancy is a key factor in our decision-making process.

As for the over, we're more confident. The model's simulation average over probability stands at 61.3%, slightly higher than the consensus odds implied probability of 52.8%. This edge, though not overwhelming, aligns well with our overall strategy and analysis.

Adding to our confidence is the late sharp movement favoring FAU at -7.5. Such movements often indicate insights or trends not immediately apparent to the public, and we value this information highly.

Moreover, this isn't just any game. It's a clash between a 6-0 Liberty and a 5-1 FAU, making it not only a top-tier game in terms of records but also KenPom's #1 game of the night. At BrownBagBets, we're committed to bringing you not just any games, but the ones that capture the essence of competitive sports – the games everyone wants to watch. And this matchup is certainly one of those. So, let's dive into this exciting game, trusting our model and the latest market movements to guide our betting strategy.

Louisiana @ Samford, 8 PM

Pick: Samford ML @ -160 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

Creighton @ Oklahoma State, 9 PM

Pick: Creighton -6.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Hawaii @ Utah, 9 PM

Pick: Utah -11.5 / Wager: 2% Bankroll

NBA

Blazers @ Cavaliers, 7 PM

Pick: Blazers +12.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pick: Donovan Mitchell over 4.5 Assists / Wager: 4% Bankroll

Pistons @ Knicks, 7:30 PM

Pick: Over 218.5 / Wager 4% Bankroll

Pick: Jalen Brunson over 25.5 Points / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Hornets @ Nets, 7:30 PM

Pick: Nets -8.5 / Wager: 4% bankroll

Jazz @ Timberwolves, 8 PM

Pick: Timberwolves -11 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

NHL

Stars @ Flames, 9 PM

Pick: Stars ML / Wager: 3% bankroll

Panthers @ Canadians, 7PM

Pick: Matthew Tkachuk to Score a Goal / Wager: 0.00576% Bankroll