BrownBag Double Play: During the Day Wager Updates!

Stay tuned for special releases here today as college basketball preseason invitationals take center stage. As the day rolls on check back for new plays off of earlier wins. Note, bankroll amount is equal to the same ratio as we started the day.

Oklahoma State @ St. Bonaventure, 6:30 PM, EPSNU

Pick: Under 136

Wager: 10% Bankroll

1. Both teams have shown a propensity to play at a slower pace, with Oklahoma State and St. Bonaventure focusing on defense.

2. The previous scores and the offensive struggles early in the season for both teams suggest a lower-scoring game.

3. The odds movement shows a slight decrease in the over/under, signaling market agreement with a lower-scoring expectation.

With these factors, the recommendation would lean towards taking the “Under” on the total points. However, given the recent performance where Oklahoma State hit 17 treys, there’s potential for a higher-scoring game if they replicate that shooting performance.

Presbyterian Blue Hose @ North Florida Ospreys, 7 PM, ESPN +

Pick: N. Florida ML

Wager: 10% Bankroll

1. Performance and Trends: Presbyterian is off to a strong start with a 3-0 record, including a notable win against Vanderbilt. North Florida has had a less impressive start but has the home-court advantage where they have won nine of their past 12 games.

2. Expert Opinion: Experts seem to lean towards North Florida, suggesting that while Presbyterian has had a good run, North Florida might be underappreciated due to their previous season’s performance.

3. Betting Action: There’s a significant amount of “sharp” money indicating professional betting favoring North Florida. This is often a strong indicator as it suggests informed betting behavior.

4. Recent Performance: The provided picks show that North Florida has been competitive and can leverage their home advantage. The fact that Presbyterian was picked to finish last in their conference despite their current record may indicate overperformance or underrating.

Recommendation: The recommendation would be to take North Florida on the ML. Despite Presbyterian’s current record, North Florida’s home advantage and the sharp money backing them up are compelling reasons to lean towards their victory.

Utah Utes @ Wake Forest Demon Deacons, 9 PM, ESPNU

Pick: Utah -5.5

Wager: 10% Bankroll

• Utah is seen as a team that is primed for a strong performance this season, with significant inside presence and scoring ability.

• Wake Forest has talented scorers and has performed well offensively but has shown defensive weaknesses.

• Expert picks lean towards Utah covering a -3.5 spread, and the predicted advantage for Utah seems consistent across different sources.

• Utah’s size and skill, particularly inside, might be a decisive factor against Wake Forest, which has struggled defensively.

• Wake Forest’s ability to score from the perimeter and free-throw line could keep them in the game, but Utah’s defense against offensive rebounds could negate this.

Considering Utah’s strong start, their defensive capabilities, the inside presence, and the expert opinions leaning towards Utah having the edge, it would be reasonable to feel comfortable taking Utah at -6. However, the confidence level might not be as high as if the spread were lower due to the potential for Wake Forest to close the gap with perimeter shooting.

Confidence Level: Taking Utah at -6 would have a confidence level of around 6 out of 10. While Utah is favored to win, the 6-point spread adds a level of risk, especially in a game that could be high-scoring or close if Wake Forest’s shooting offsets Utah’s advantages.

Given the analysis and the expert opinions suggesting that Utah has the edge in this matchup, particularly with their inside presence and defensive capabilities, a -5.5 spread for Utah is more favorable than -6. This is because it slightly reduces the risk of a close game falling within that 6-point margin.

With Utah’s advantages and the projections supporting them to cover, taking Utah at -5.5 is more comfortable than at -6. Wake Forest’s struggles on defense and Utah’s strong inside game could very well lead to Utah covering this spread.

Confidence Level: At a -5.5 spread, the confidence level could be nudged up to around a 7 out of 10. The half-point reduction decreases the risk of a push on a 6-point margin, giving slightly more leeway for Utah to cover the spread.