November Rebound: Today’s Strategic Sports Betting Picks to Revitalize Our Bankroll

NCAAF

Boston College Eagles @ Pittsburgh Panthers, 7 PM, ESPN

Pick: Panthers ML

Wager: 12% Bankroll

Pittsburgh’s defense, despite recent struggles, has been strong in key metrics like Defensive Quality Drives, which could limit BC’s scoring opportunities.

The sharp money’s movement towards Pittsburgh suggests informed confidence in their ability to perform under pressure and potentially secure a win.

Boston College’s defense has been leaky, especially against the run, which aligns with Pittsburgh’s strategy to focus on their ground game.

The uncertainty at QB for Pittsburgh is a concern, but home-field advantage and the urgency following a coaching hot seat situation could galvanize the team.

BC’s turnovers and injury woes add to the likelihood of Pittsburgh capitalizing on mistakes and controlling the pace of the game to secure a victory.

In looking at the records you’d really struggle to understand how Pitt is even favored, we are going ML here simply to de-risk the play.

NFL

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens, 8:15 PM, Amazon PrimeTV

Pick: Ravens ML Wager: 16% Bankroll

Pick: Mark Andrews over 57.5 Yards Receiving Wager: 8% Bankroll

Pick: Gus Andrews over 46.5 Rushing Yards Wager: 8% Bankroll

Pick: Keaton Mitchell over 36.5 Rushing Yards Wager: 8% Bankroll

Pick: Justin Tucker over 1.5 FGs Wager: 8% Bankroll

Mark Andrews Over 57.5 Receiving Yards: Mark Andrews is the go-to receiver for Lamar Jackson and leads the Ravens in nearly every receiving category. The Bengals have shown a particular vulnerability to tight ends, and with their defensive ends hampered by injury, Jackson may rely on quick passes to his most trusted target. Although the line has increased, Andrews’ elite target share and consistent production make this a compelling pick, albeit with slightly less margin for error.

Keaton Mitchell Over 36.5 Rush Yards: Mitchell has shown explosive playmaking ability, averaging a remarkable 13.9 yards per touch, hinting at his potential to exceed the rushing yards total on limited carries. Coach John Harbaugh’s intention to increase Mitchell’s workload, especially after a strong performance in limited action last week, supports the likelihood of him surpassing this modest total. Given the Ravens’ first-ranking rush offense and the Bengals’ struggles against the run, this prop remains attractive despite the line adjustment.

Gus Edwards Over 46.5 Rushing Yards: Edwards has been a consistent force in the Ravens’ top-tier rushing attack and has historically performed well against the Bengals. His physical running style suits the Ravens’ game plan to control the clock and keep Burrow off the field, especially if they lead in the second half. Given that Edwards has surpassed this yardage threshold in previous games and the Bengals’ defense is ranked 28th against the rush, this prop bet holds value.

Ravens Moneyline: The Ravens, with their powerful run game and the coaching acumen of John Harbaugh, especially after a loss, stand as strong contenders to win outright against the Bengals. Despite the absence of key players like Marlon Humphrey, the Ravens’ home-field advantage and Lamar Jackson’s proven track record against Cincinnati bolster their prospects. Considering these factors, along with the Ravens’ overall balanced team and the Bengals’ injury concerns, there’s a solid rationale to back the Ravens on the Moneyline.

NCAA Basketball

Game: College of Charleston Cougars @ Vermont Catamounts, 11:30 AM, ESPN+

Pick: Under 145 Wager: 10% Bankroll

Given the over/under of 145 for the College of Charleston vs. Vermont game, the recommendation sit with the under. Vermont’s methodical offense aims to control the pace and limit possessions, which is a significant factor in lowering total game scores. Charleston’s early-season shooting struggles, particularly from beyond the arc, could continue to hamper their scoring potential despite their up-tempo style. The consensus among sharp bettors and the substantial amount of money on the under suggest a market belief in a lower-scoring affair, aligning with the teams’ current form and strategic tendencies.

Saint Louis Billikens @ Wyoming Cowboys, 2 PM, ESPN2

Pick: Under 149.5

Wager: 10% Bankroll

The under is a compelling pick for the Saint Louis vs. Wyoming game with the total set at 150. Both teams are experiencing significant transitions, losing key players that drove last season’s offensive success, which could lead to lower scoring as the new rosters find their rhythm. Saint Louis’ pace, while quick in their first two games against weaker defenses, is likely to slow down against Wyoming’s more deliberate style and focus on defensive rebounding, limiting fast-break opportunities and second-chance points. The early tip-off in a neutral venue may contribute to a slower start for both teams, a common trend that can affect shooting efficiency.

Wichita State Shockers @ Coastal Carolina Chanticleers, 4:30 PM, ESPNU

Pick: Wichita State -9.5

Wager: 12% Bankroll

The images provide a mixture of statistical analysis and expert opinion, which point towards Wichita State not only being favored to win but also to cover the spread of -9.5. A trusted expert for BrownBagBets (although he’s in a slump right now) suggests a fade against Coastal Carolina due to the team’s less impressive performance and recent changes, including many new transfers. Computer models and public sentiment lean towards Wichita State covering the spread, with a model even suggesting a -14 line, indicating a stronger performance than the consensus odds. The sharp action, or professional betting patterns, also show confidence in Wichita State, with two sharp moves in their favor and none for Coastal Carolina.

In conclusion, the combination of expert analysis, betting trends, and computer models suggest that Wichita State is likely to cover the -9.5 spread against Coastal Carolina.

3 Team Favorite Early Slate Parlay

Pick: College of Charleston ML, St. John’s ML, Saint Louis ML

Wager: 8% Bankroll @ +367 odds

Saint Louis -165: The expert notes that despite last year’s unfortunate season, the core players of Saint Louis, especially Gibson Jimerson, are returning, which could be a significant advantage. The promising 7-foot freshman, Bruce Zhang, adds potential on the court.

College of Charleston -130: The computer model predicts a win for Charleston with a projected score of 78-71 over UVM, indicating a strong offensive game from Charleston. The public and simulation support Charleston as the favorite, suggesting confidence in their ability to win.

St. John’s -150: The analysis suggests that St. John’s should be favored by more, but the line may be a reaction to a recent poor performance. With the expectation that the team will be highly motivated to prove themselves and with a size advantage, St. John’s is predicted to overcome North Texas.

Parlay Rationale: Parlaying these three favorites increases the potential payout compared to individual bets. Each team shows signs of a strong ability to win, backed by expert analysis, public opinion, and computer models. The confidence level in this parlay is moderate to high due to the consistency across various predictions and the identified advantages each team possesses.