On a Roll: Last Night’s Success and Tonight’s NFL Picks
Last Night's Recap
Fantastic news, BrownBagBets community! We went 5-1 last night and even cashed in on our Astros future bet as they closed out their series against the Twins. Unfortunately, our losses came from the over/under in that game and the Dodgers' future bet, as they were surprisingly swept in three games. On the bright side, the Phillies won Game 3, keeping our future bet alive and well. We're sitting at 104% of our bankroll, or an effective 107% when accounting for our Phillies future bet.
Standing Down on the Phillies Game
Tonight, the Phillies are back in action against the Braves at 8:05 PM ET. While we'd usually be all over this, we're choosing to stand down. Why? We've already got our future bet on the Phillies, and with Suarez on the mound for Philly and Strider for the Braves, we're not seeing a clear edge to exploit. Sometimes the best bet is the one you don't make, and tonight, we're letting our future bet do the talking.
No NCAAF Picks Tonight
There are two NCAAF games on the slate tonight, but after thorough analysis, we're not seeing any value that we're comfortable with. It's not about making a pick on every game; it's about making the smart picks. Tonight, we're choosing to focus our attention on the NFL, where we see more predictable variables and better opportunities.
Tonight's Picks:
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs Under 49 - 3% Bankroll
Tonight's Thursday Night Football matchup is a tough one, with indicators on both sides for the over/under. However, we're going with a combination of fading the public and a high-winds system play. We're tracking big money coming in on the under, while 71% of public tickets are on the over. Games with wind speeds above 10 mph have a 57% hit rate for the under, with a 10% ROI. The weather forecast predicts gusts of 30-40 mph and a steady state of 14 mph throughout the game.
Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD - 3% Bankroll
We're also taking a prop bet on Isiah Pacheco to score an anytime TD. Given our reasoning for the under, we expect a run-heavy game tonight. Pacheco has scored in three straight games, making this a solid choice.
Isiah Pacheco Over 76.5 Rushing Yards - 3% Bankroll
Continuing with the run-heavy theme, we're also taking a prop bet on Pacheco to go over 76.5 rushing yards. He's touched the ball at least 17 times in each of the last three games. If the Chiefs blow out the Broncos and cover the 10.5-point spread, it's likely to be a drawn-out 4th quarter where Pacheco thrives running the ball.
There you have it! We're riding a hot streak and looking to keep the momentum going. Let's make it another winning night!
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