BrownBagBets Kicks Off December After a Resilient November

November in Review and December’s Fresh Start

As we close the chapter on November, we reflect on a month that tested every element of the BrownBagBets philosophy—discipline, resilience, and the unwavering focus on winning the month, not the day. While we didn’t quite cross the finish line into positive territory, we fought back to 99% of our starting bankroll, proving yet again that our approach works.

What is BrownBagBets?

For those new to our community, BrownBagBets is more than just a sports betting group—it’s a system, a mindset, and a community built on transparency, discipline, and long-term success. Here’s how it works:

1. Start Each Month with a Defined Bankroll

   • At the start of every month, we begin with 100% of our bankroll. Whether your bankroll is $1,000, $10,000, or more, the principle is the same: the goal is to grow it steadily over the course of the month.

2. Make Smart, Calculated Plays

   • November is a great example of this. Over the past 30 days, we made 327 individual plays. That’s not reckless volume—it’s calculated, diversified action across leagues and sports where our proprietary bankroll intelligence system finds value.

3. Win the Month, Not the Day

   • No single play, day, or week defines us. November saw its ups and downs, including a tough start, but we didn’t chase losses. Instead, we stuck to our principles, stayed disciplined, and worked our way back from deficits.

4. Debit Passive Income

   • When the month ends, we withdraw our winnings as passive income, leaving the original bankroll intact for the next month. Eight out of 11 months in 2024, we’ve done just that—paying ourselves from the work we’ve put in.

5. Earn Tier Credits Along the Way

   • One of the most overlooked benefits of our approach? The sheer volume of plays we make equals tier credits with betting platforms. This November alone, our plays earned enough credits to convert into perks, free cash, and loyalty bonuses. Even in a break-even month, those credits add significant value to the overall gains.

Why This System Works

Sports betting is a long game. It’s not about hitting every play or chasing a hot streak—it’s about building something sustainable. BrownBagBets works because:

• We play the entire board strategically, finding value across all sports and leagues.

• We stay disciplined in bankroll management, ensuring no single loss derails the month.

• We’re transparent about every play, win or lose, sharing our insights and process with our community.

Welcome to December: Fresh Month, Fresh Start

Today, we kick off December with a fresh 100% bankroll and a jam-packed sports slate. Here’s what’s on the board:

1. NFL Week 13

• The NFL takes center stage with a full Sunday slate of games. Our updated indicators have identified several strong plays, including spreads, totals, and props.

2. College Basketball

• Feast Week may be behind us, but December marks the heart of non-conference play. Today’s slate offers numerous matchups with lines that still reflect early-season inefficiencies.

3. NBA and NHL

• Both leagues feature key matchups and value plays, with player props, totals, and moneyline opportunities emerging as standout options.

4. EPL Showdown

• The day starts with a massive EPL match that has the potential to set the tone for an incredible day of sports betting.

Let’s Make December Count

As we look ahead to a new month, we’re reminded of what makes BrownBagBets special: a system that works, a community that holds us accountable, and the thrill of attacking each day with purpose. Whether you’re here for the NFL, basketball, hockey, or soccer, this is a fresh opportunity to grow your bankroll and close out 2024 on a high note.

Let’s trust the process, stay disciplined, and win the month. December starts now—let’s get to it.

English Premier League: Manchester City at Liverpool

Pick: Liverpool ML @ +115
Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Liverpool’s Counter-Attacking Edge:

• City’s Defensive Vulnerabilities: Manchester City has struggled against counter-attacking teams, conceding quality chances in transition. Liverpool, the best counter-attacking side in the world, is primed to exploit this weakness with players like Mohamed Salah and Darwin Núñez excelling on the break.

• Liverpool’s Defensive Solidity: The Reds boast the league’s best metrics for limiting quality chances. Their ability to disrupt opposition attacks will be crucial against City’s high-possession style.

Historical Trends:

• Home Dominance in This Fixture: The away team has won just 11% of the meetings between these sides, emphasizing the importance of Anfield’s intimidating atmosphere.

• Anfield as a Fortress: Liverpool has a dominant record at home, particularly against top-tier opposition. Their pressing game and crowd support make Anfield one of the hardest places to secure points.

Key Stats:

• Chance Creation: Liverpool leads the league in creating high-quality opportunities while conceding the fewest. Conversely, City has allowed the highest number of such chances per game among the top six teams.

• Momentum: Liverpool enters this match with momentum and the psychological advantage of playing at home.

Projected Outcome:

Liverpool’s superior counter-attacking ability and City’s defensive frailties against such strategies give the home side the edge. Expect a high-intensity match with the Reds capitalizing on key moments to secure a victory.

Projected Score: Liverpool 2, Manchester City 1

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders

Pick 1: Titans +6.5
Wager: 3%
Pick 2: Calvin Ridley Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception
Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Titans +6.5

• Commanders’ Recent Decline: After a strong start, Washington has faltered. QB Jayden Daniels, who led the NFL in EPA/play through Week 9, now ranks 26th over the past three games. The absence of key players, including RB Austin Ekeler and RT Andrew Wiley, further hampers their offense.

• Titans’ Resilient Defense: Tennessee’s defense ranks second in the league in yards allowed per game and fourth in defensive success rate. They held the Texans to just 4.8 yards per play last week and continue to stifle opposing offenses.

• Levis’ Downfield Potential: Despite occasional errors, Will Levis has thrown five touchdowns to just two interceptions over the past three games, with a focus on attacking deep. The Titans have proven they can stay competitive even with mistakes, as shown in their outright win over Houston last week.

• Washington’s Vulnerabilities: The Commanders' offense has struggled without Ekeler, and their defense, ranked 21st in EPA allowed on explosive plays, may struggle to contain Tennessee’s vertical attack.

Calvin Ridley Over 23.5 Yards Longest Reception

• Big Play Potential: Ridley has recorded a catch of 25+ yards in five of his last six games. With DeAndre Hopkins gone, Ridley is the primary deep threat in this offense.

• Washington’s Defensive Weakness: The Commanders rank 21st in EPA allowed on throws of 20+ yards, making this a favorable matchup for Ridley to exploit deep opportunities.

• Levis’ Deep Ball Tendencies: Will Levis has consistently attacked downfield, averaging 9.5+ yards per attempt over his past two games. This aggressive approach aligns well with Ridley’s big-play ability.

Projected Outcome:

Tennessee’s strong defense and Levis’ ability to connect on deep shots should keep this game within the spread. Ridley’s deep play potential further enhances the Titans’ offensive chances.

Projected Score: Titans 20, Commanders 24

NFL: Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets

Pick: Seahawks ML
Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Seahawks’ Defensive Resurgence: Seattle's defense has significantly improved under Mike Macdonald's schemes, allowing only 23 combined points in recent wins against the 49ers and Cardinals. The addition of Ernest Jones IV has been impactful, as he has racked up 47 tackles in just four games.

• Geno Smith’s Strong Road Play: Geno Smith thrives in 1 PM kickoffs, posting a 102.2 QB rating over his last eight early starts, with 12 touchdowns and just three interceptions. He's 5-3 in those games and 4-1 against his former teams (Jets and Giants). Seattle’s 4-1 road record this season underscores their resilience away from home.

• Jets’ Offensive Struggles: The Jets are in turmoil, with just one win and cover in their past eight games. Their inability to score, coupled with a declining defense, makes it hard to trust them. They’ve lost six of their last seven games coming off a bye week.

• Seattle’s Momentum and Adjustments: The Seahawks have already secured two East Coast wins this season and come into this matchup refreshed from their own bye week. Their ability to limit rushing attacks (3.8 yards per carry allowed over the past three games) should neutralize the Jets’ ground game, forcing Aaron Rodgers to rely on a shaky offensive line and limited receiving options.

Key Matchup:

Seattle’s improving defense against a Jets offense that has failed to score consistently all season. If Seattle forces Rodgers into passing downs, their edge in defensive adjustments and pressure should control the game.

Projected Outcome:

Seattle’s balanced attack and defensive discipline should be enough to win a low-scoring battle against a struggling Jets team.

Projected Score: Seahawks 20, Jets 13

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Pick: Colts ML
Wager: 2%

Analysis:

• Colts’ Resilience Against Tough Competition: While Indianapolis has lost four of their last five games, those losses came against high-level playoff-caliber teams such as the Lions, Bills, Vikings, and Texans. Against lesser opponents, the Colts have consistently performed well, both straight up and against the spread.

• Dominance Over Struggling Teams: The Colts have excelled against weaker competition, reflected in their 8-4 record against the spread this season. Their ability to capitalize on favorable matchups makes them a strong play against a struggling Patriots team.

• Patriots’ Offensive Struggles: New England boasts the worst offense in the league, averaging just 280 yards per game, and their -7 turnover margin underscores their inability to execute consistently. This creates a favorable matchup for a Colts defense capable of creating pressure and turnovers.

• Momentum Factor: While the Patriots have shown occasional flashes, their inability to string together sustained offensive drives puts them at a clear disadvantage against a Colts team eager to take advantage of a weaker opponent.

Key Matchup:

The Colts’ balanced offensive attack, led by their run game, should exploit a Patriots defense that has struggled to keep pace when their offense leaves them on the field too long.

Projected Outcome:

Expect the Colts to control the game flow, force turnovers, and capitalize on New England’s inefficiencies.

Projected Score: Colts 24, Patriots 17

NFL: Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings

Pick: Vikings ML
Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Cardinals' Offensive Struggles: Arizona's offense hinges on an effective run game, which has faltered recently. The Cardinals managed just 49 rushing yards on 14 carries in their loss to Seattle, and they now face Minnesota's league-best rushing defense. The Vikings allow only 95 rushing yards per game and a league-low 2.6 yards per rush by opposing quarterbacks, potentially neutralizing Kyler Murray's mobility.

• Justin Jefferson Factor: Arizona struggles against outside receivers, ranking 24th in EPA allowed to the position. This sets up a potential breakout game for Justin Jefferson, who remains one of the most explosive weapons in the NFL.

• Minnesota's Momentum: The Vikings are in contention for the NFC North title and a top playoff seed. With this being their first home game in nearly a month, expect an energized performance in front of their home crowd.

• Arizona's Inconsistency on the Road: The Cardinals have struggled in two of their past three road games, underscoring their difficulties away from home.

• Sam Darnold's Efficiency: While there are doubts about Darnold's long-term consistency, he has shown recent improvement with back-to-back games of at least two passing touchdowns and no interceptions.

Key Matchup:

The Vikings' ability to stifle Arizona's rushing attack and force Murray to rely solely on his arm will likely dictate the outcome. Minnesota’s defensive front, combined with Jefferson's big-play potential, makes the Vikings a strong play in this matchup.

Projected Outcome:

The Vikings should control the game on both sides of the ball, limiting Arizona's offense and leaning on their playmakers to secure the win.

Projected Score: Vikings 27, Cardinals 17

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals

Pick: Steelers +3
Wager: 2%
Pick: Mike Gesicki Under 2.5 Total Receptions
Wager: 2%

Analysis:

• Mike Gesicki Prop: In games where Tee Higgins plays, Mike Gesicki’s role in the Bengals' offense diminishes significantly. Over the last five games with Higgins active, Gesicki has managed just four total receptions. Despite what appears to be a favorable matchup for tight ends, the data suggests Gesicki’s involvement will be limited again.

• Steelers ATS Trends:

  • Pittsburgh thrives as underdogs, going 4-0 ATS this season in that role, with all four wins outright.

  • Mike Tomlin is 14-4 against the Bengals in his career and has an 8-3 SU record as a road underdog in his last 11 such games.

  • Tomlin's teams rarely lose consecutive division road games, having done so only once since 2014.

• Bengals Defensive Issues: Over their last three games, Cincinnati has allowed 5.8 yards per play, showing vulnerability despite their recent urgency.

• Pittsburgh Resilience: All of the Steelers’ losses this season have been close, with two by a field goal and one in challenging weather conditions (a 24-19 loss in Cleveland).

Key Trend:

The Bengals have struggled against Tomlin-coached teams, and Joe Burrow has had difficulty against this Pittsburgh defense in prior matchups.

Projected Outcome:

Expect a tightly contested AFC North battle, with the Steelers’ defense keeping them in the game and their offense doing enough to cover or win outright. Gesicki’s limited role supports the under on his reception total.

Projected Score: Steelers 20, Bengals 17

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons

Pick: Falcons +2.5
Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Chargers' Rushing Defense: The Chargers struggled mightily against Baltimore's run game, allowing 212 rushing yards at 5.7 yards per carry on Monday Night Football. Now, on a short week, they face another elite rushing duo in Bijan Robinson (4.7 ypc) and Tyler Allgeier (5.0 ypc).

• Injury Concerns: LB Denzel Perryman missed the last game with a groin injury and remains questionable. LA is also without RB J.K. Dobbins, which limits their offensive flexibility.

• Falcons' Home Advantage: Atlanta is rested following their bye week, and a return to Mercedes-Benz Stadium could provide the spark they need after two straight losses.

• Chargers' Offensive Struggles: Against tougher defenses this season, including the Steelers, Chiefs, Cardinals, and Ravens, Justin Herbert's offense has managed just 14.5 points per game in their losses.

Key Trend:

The Chargers are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with a winning record at home.

Projected Outcome:

With a superior ground attack and fresh legs after their bye, Atlanta should keep this one tight or even win outright. Taking the points adds a cushion in what could be a low-scoring, close contest.

Projected Score: Falcons 23, Chargers 20

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

Pick 1: Rams -2.5 / Wager: 3%
Pick 2: Cooper Kupp Over 69.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%
Pick 3: Alvin Kamara Over 37.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Rams to Cover -2.5

• Saints Defensive Struggles: Despite a two-game winning streak under their interim coach, the Saints' defense remains vulnerable. They allowed 468 yards to Atlanta and 443 yards to Cleveland in their last two outings.

• Rams Offense Rebound: LA’s offensive inefficiencies have stemmed from fumbles and third-down struggles, but their talent-packed roster makes this a prime spot for a bounce-back game.

• Pressure is Key: The Rams lead the NFL in pressure rate, a critical factor against Saints QB Derek Carr, who has struggled under pressure this season.

Cooper Kupp Over 69.5 Receiving Yards

• Volume Target: Kupp has been targeted 50 times in five games since his return, making him a focal point of the Rams' passing game.

• Favorable Matchup: Saints slot corner Ugo Amadi has allowed 17 catches on 22 targets for 166 yards over his last two games. Kupp should exploit this matchup.

• Proven Production: Kupp has surpassed this receiving total in three of his last four games and is set for double-digit targets in this contest.

Alvin Kamara Over 37.5 Receiving Yards

• Rams Vulnerability to RBs: Opponents are 46-for-50 when targeting running backs against the Rams this season, a trend that heavily favors Kamara.

• Game Script Fit: LA’s high pressure rate will force Carr to rely on quick, short passes, playing perfectly into Kamara’s hands.

• Consistent Receiver Role: Kamara has cleared this receiving line in three of his last four games, and he’s a vital outlet in a Saints offense that often struggles to push the ball deep.

Projected Outcome:

The Rams’ ability to generate pressure and exploit mismatches with Kupp should allow them to take control of this game. Kamara will be heavily involved as a receiver, but New Orleans’ defensive vulnerabilities are likely to give the Rams the edge.

Score Prediction: Rams 27, Saints 20

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens

Pick 1: Ravens ML / Wager: 3%
Pick 2: Saquon Barkley Over 17.5 Total Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

Ravens Moneyline

• Lamar's Dominance vs. NFC: Lamar Jackson has a sterling 10-0 record at home against NFC opponents and is 23-1 SU in all-time games against NFC teams.

• Key Eagles Injuries: Philadelphia will be without pass rusher Brandon Graham (IR) and cornerback Darius Slay (concussion), weakening their defense significantly. WR DeVonta Smith (hamstring) is questionable, further limiting their offensive firepower.

• Baltimore's Ground Control: The Ravens' top-tier defense excels at limiting opposing rushing attacks, setting up a favorable matchup against an Eagles team reliant on the run game.

Saquon Barkley Over 17.5 Receiving Yards

• Baltimore's Weakness vs. RBs in the Passing Game: Despite their strong run defense, the Ravens have been vulnerable to running backs catching passes. RBs have exceeded this receiving total in four of Baltimore’s last six games.

• Saquon's Usage in the Passing Game: Barkley has surpassed 40 receiving yards in three of his last four outings, showcasing his involvement as a receiver, especially in challenging matchups.

• Game Script Fit: Baltimore’s elite run defense will likely force the Eagles to lean on short passes to Barkley to move the chains and exploit mismatches.

Projected Outcome:

The Ravens’ strong home-field advantage and ability to exploit an undermanned Eagles defense make them the likelier winner in this matchup. Meanwhile, Saquon Barkley’s role as a receiver should be amplified against a Ravens defense that’s struggled to limit receiving production from opposing running backs.

Score Prediction: Ravens 24, Eagles 20