BrownBagBets Celebrates Milestones and Prepares for Monday Night Football

A Weekend of Gratitude, Growth, and Getting Back on Track

It’s Monday, and while yesterday’s NFL slate delivered a mixed bag with a 7-7 result, we’re reminded of the bigger picture that drives the BrownBagBets community. Sure, some of our higher-value plays didn’t hit, and we started December with a slight dip, but this is why we preach the long game. The work we’ve done—adjusting, analyzing, and fine-tuning—isn’t about the day-to-day; it’s about winning over the course of weeks, months, and even years.

And beyond the numbers, this weekend gave us plenty to be thankful for:

Celebrating Our Wins Beyond the Bets

500 Instagram Followers

We hit a major milestone over the holiday weekend with 500 followers on Instagram! Each one of you is a testament to the power of our community. This isn’t just a group of bettors—it’s a collective of disciplined minds, learning and growing together. Thank you for being a part of this journey.

Support From Our Followers

Over the weekend, we received donations from followers who won off our plays, and we cannot thank you enough for your generosity. Every contribution, no matter the size, is a reminder of why we do this. It’s not just about the picks—it’s about building a system and a community that helps us all succeed.

Staying Focused: The Long Game Mentality

As we look back on the past month—and forward to the rest of December—it’s critical to highlight why the BrownBagBets approach is built to last:

• Consistency Over Time: Whether we hit 7-7 or 12-2, it’s never about the individual day. We aim to win the month by sticking to our disciplined approach, avoiding emotional reactions, and trusting our process.

• A System That Evolves: Yesterday’s losses don’t just disappear—we study them. Every play we make, every line we analyze, every trend we follow is part of the larger mission to improve every single day.

• Community Accountability: This isn’t just about us—it’s about you, our community, holding us accountable and pushing us to be better. We never take that for granted, and your faith in us drives us to keep delivering.

Today’s Slate: Monday Night Football and More

While today’s slate might be mild compared to the weekend, there’s plenty to get excited about:

1. Monday Night Football: Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos

• The 3-8 Browns head to Denver to take on the surprising 7-5 Broncos, led by their standout rookie quarterback.

• The line: Broncos -6, O/U 42.

• We’re eyeing a couple of props that align with our indicators.

2. EPL

• Two plays stand out today as Southampton and Brighton take the field. EPL often provides undervalued opportunities early in the week, and today’s no exception.

3. College Basketball, NBA, and NHL

• It’s a lighter slate, but that doesn’t mean we won’t find value. Across all three leagues, we’ve already identified spots worth exploring.

Let’s Get Back to Winning

Yesterday may not have been a massive win, but the BrownBagBets community knows that this is part of the journey. We’re incredibly grateful for the support you’ve shown, the milestones we’ve hit, and the continued opportunity to share this process with all of you.

Today, we’re back at it—focused, disciplined, and ready to attack the slate. Whether it’s NFL, EPL, NCAAB, NHL, or NBA, we’re confident that December will deliver.

Let’s stay locked in and win the day.

NFL: Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos

Pick 1: Nick Chubb Under 55.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 2%
Pick 2: Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Analysis:

Nick Chubb Under 55.5 Rushing Yards

• Denver’s Stout Run Defense: Over their past three games, the Broncos have allowed just 3.1 yards per carry, limiting opposing RBs effectively.

• Game Script: Denver is favored by nearly a touchdown, which could force Cleveland to rely more on the passing game if they fall behind early. Opponents have run the ball only 28.7% of the time against Denver over the last three games, a sharp decline from their season average.

• Volume Concerns: While Chubb received significant carries in adverse weather conditions against Pittsburgh, this was an outlier. Mild weather and a potential negative game script could cap his rushing attempts.

Courtland Sutton Over 63.5 Receiving Yards

• Browns Struggles Against No. 1 WRs: Cleveland has consistently been vulnerable against top receivers, particularly against man coverage, which they play 40% of the time.

• Sutton’s Hot Streak: Sutton has posted 70+ receiving yards in five consecutive games, solidifying his role as Russell Wilson’s go-to target.

• Weather Advantage: Mild conditions (low 40s, light wind) should allow Denver’s passing game to operate without hindrance.

Projected Outcome:

Denver’s defensive dominance against the run could stifle Nick Chubb’s production, while Courtland Sutton continues his strong form against a Browns secondary susceptible to top WRs.

Score Prediction: Broncos 23, Browns 17

NCAAB: Yale at University of Rhode Island

Pick: Rhode Island ML / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• KenPom Rankings: Rhode Island is ranked 13 spots higher than Yale, highlighting their stronger overall metrics.

• Team Momentum: The Rams are undefeated at 7-0, with head coach Archie Miller aiming to join program legend Frank Keaney as the only coaches in school history to start 8-0 or better.

• Player to Watch: Senior point guard Sebastian Thomas, who is closing in on 1,000 career points, has been instrumental this season, averaging 15.8 PPG.

• Head-to-Head Advantage: Rhode Island has won the past three meetings, including a close 76-72 victory last year.

• Yale’s Profile: A solid Ivy League team picked second in the conference but faces a tough challenge on the road against a surging Rams squad.

Projected Outcome:

Expect Rhode Island’s strong start to continue, led by Sebastian Thomas and their home-court advantage.

Score Prediction: Rhode Island 74, Yale 69

NCAAB: Washington State at Nevada

Pick: Washington State +12.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Injury Update: Washington State will likely still be without leading scorer Cedric Coward (shoulder), who missed last week's games. Despite his absence, the Cougars were competitive in a split against Fresno State and SMU.

• Rebounding Concern: The loss to SMU was primarily due to a significant rebounding disadvantage (51-25). Nevada, however, lacks the physical dominance of SMU and is more reliant on perimeter play.

• Nevada’s Style: The Wolf Pack's offense leans on players like Cal Poly transfer Kobe Sanders (17 PPG) and 6'10" Nick Davidson, who operates more as a perimeter and mid-range scorer rather than a traditional post presence.

• Competitive Matchup: Washington State has avoided being blown out in most games this season, and Nevada’s style of play may not exploit the Cougars' key weaknesses.

Projected Outcome:

The Cougars should be able to keep this game competitive, leveraging their ability to counter Nevada’s perimeter-heavy offense. Taking the points provides solid value in what should be a closer contest than the spread suggests.

Score Prediction: Nevada 74, Washington State 66.

NHL: New Jersey Devils at New York Rangers

Pick: Rangers ML @ +105 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Rangers' Form: New York recently broke a four-game losing streak with a dramatic 4-3 victory over Montreal, featuring a late Kaapo Kakko game-winner on the power play.

• Goaltending Edge: Igor Shesterkin returns to the net tonight. While he's on a four-game skid, he posted a strong performance against Philadelphia last Friday, stopping 32 of 34 shots.

• Devils' Defensive Struggles: New Jersey has been inconsistent, allowing 13 goals in their last three games and alternating between wins and losses during that stretch.

• Home Ice Advantage: The Rangers are back at Madison Square Garden, where they tend to perform well in key rivalry games.

Projected Outcome:

The Rangers have momentum from their recent win and the goaltending edge with Shesterkin. Expect them to exploit the Devils' defensive lapses and secure a close win.

Score Prediction: Rangers 4, Devils 2.

NHL: Dallas Stars at Utah Hockey Club

Pick: Utah +1 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Scheduling Factor: Dallas is coming off a big win over Winnipeg on Sunday, creating a potential letdown scenario in an unfamiliar Salt Lake City environment.

• Goaltending Matchup: Dallas is expected to start backup Casey DeSmith, who has allowed 10 goals in his last two starts and has lost four straight games.

• Utah’s Recent Form: Utah has been competitive, with results that would yield three cashes and three pushes in their past six games if playing at +1.

• Travel and Fatigue: The Stars are playing the second game of a back-to-back, which often results in slower starts and potential fatigue.

Projected Outcome:

Utah should keep this close, with the +1 providing a strong cushion for either a narrow loss or an outright upset.

Score Prediction: Dallas 3, Utah 3 (OT).

NBA: New Orleans Pelicans at Atlanta Hawks

Pick: Jalen Johnson Over 13.5 Rebounds + Assists / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Season Performance: Johnson is averaging 10.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists per game, giving him a strong baseline to surpass this prop.

• Consistency: He has hit this mark in seven of his last nine games, demonstrating reliability in this category.

• Previous Matchup: Against the Pelicans earlier this season, Johnson recorded nine rebounds and eight assists, showing he can capitalize on this specific matchup.

• Pelicans' Weaknesses: New Orleans ranks ninth in rebounds allowed per game and third in assists allowed per game, presenting a favorable environment for Johnson’s strengths.

Projected Outcome:

Johnson's versatility and recent form make him a strong candidate to clear this line. He should take advantage of the Pelicans’ defensive vulnerabilities to have another productive outing.

Stat Projection: 10 rebounds, 5 assists = 15 total.

NBA: Los Angeles Lakers at Minnesota Timberwolves

Pick: Under 219.5 / Wager: 3%

Analysis:

• Lakers' Recent Struggles: The Lakers have lost four of their last six games, with their offense sputtering. They’ve failed to score more than 105 points in four of their last five outings, even against weaker defenses.

• Injury Concerns: Austin Reaves (hip) missed last night’s game, and his potential absence further limits the Lakers' offensive efficiency.

• Timberwolves' Defense: Minnesota remains an elite defensive unit, having gone under the total in four of their last five games. They can suffocate opposing offenses, particularly one as inconsistent as the Lakers'.

• Back-to-Back Fatigue: The Lakers are playing on a back-to-back, having just barely scraped by the Jazz last night. Fatigue may play a role in keeping this game low-scoring.

Projected Outcome:

With both teams struggling offensively and Minnesota’s defensive prowess, this matchup projects as a grind-it-out, low-scoring affair.

Predicted Total: 211-215 points.