NFL Sunday & More

NFL Week 10, Interception Props, and a Full Sunday Slate

Yesterday may have been a break-even day, but with NFL Week 10 upon us, we’re ready to dive into Sunday’s packed lineup and keep pushing forward. Sundays are made for football, and today, BrownBagBets is zeroing in on a unique angle—the quarterback interception market. Betting on quarterback miscues has proven profitable this season, and we’ve identified some key spots to cash in on turnover-prone QBs today.

Beyond the NFL, we’ve got a full slate with NBA, NHL, NCAA basketball, and more, giving us plenty of options to round out this Sunday of sports betting.

Today’s Betting Focus: NFL Interception Props and the Full Slate

Here’s a breakdown of what we’re targeting today across all sports:

NFL Week 10: Interception Prop Focus

• Quarterback inconsistency has been a big theme this season, and today, we’re diving headfirst into the interception market. Our analysis has highlighted several QBs who’ve struggled with turnovers, and we’ll be using that data to make smart prop bets on interceptions. Betting on mistakes might not be glamorous, but it’s effective—and we’re here to take advantage.

NBA

The NBA continues to bring daily action, and tonight’s slate offers a mix of intriguing matchups. We’re focused on finding value in lines that may be underestimating or overestimating certain teams as they settle into the season. From depth advantages to key matchups, we’re scouring the board for opportunities to add to the bankroll.

NHL

• Another busy day on the ice, with teams looking to build momentum as they push deeper into the season. Our NHL model has been effective in spotting undervalued sides, and we’re ready to capitalize on tonight’s matchups, focusing on teams that offer strong value plays based on recent performance trends.

NCAA Basketball

• Early-season college basketball action is still in full swing, and we’re locked in on games that provide solid edges. This time of year is great for finding discrepancies in lines as teams settle into new lineups and game plans. “Gains Season” continues, and we’re here to keep rolling with smart, calculated plays in NCAA hoops.

Making the Most of a Packed Sunday

Sundays are a marathon for us at BrownBagBets, and today’s full lineup is an opportunity to apply our disciplined approach across multiple sports. From cashing in on quarterback mistakes in the NFL to uncovering value in NBA, NHL, and NCAA basketball matchups, we’re sticking to our strategy, staying sharp, and playing the long game.

Let’s make this Sunday count—trust the plays, stay disciplined, and let’s finish strong

NFL: New York Giants at Carolina Panthers

Pick: Bryce Young to throw an Interception / Wager: 2%

Bryce Young’s Interception Trend

In his first four starts this season, Bryce Young has struggled with turnovers, throwing at least one interception in each game for a total of six. This trend suggests a high likelihood of him continuing to force throws under pressure, leading to potential mistakes.

Giants’ Pass-Rush Advantage

While the Giants haven’t recorded a high number of interceptions, their effective pass rush could disrupt Young’s rhythm and force him into hurried throws. Under pressure, Young has shown vulnerability, often making risky decisions that lead to interceptions.

NCAAB: Arizona State at Gonzaga

Pick: Gonzaga -19.5 / Wager: 4%

Arizona State’s Development and Dependence on New Faces

Arizona State showed improvement in their last game against Santa Clara, bouncing back from a rough opener. For further progress, head coach Bobby Hurley will rely on experienced players like Milwaukee transfer BJ Freeman, who scored 17 points, and senior guard Adam Miller, who added 16. However, ASU’s roster is young and dependent on freshmen, making consistency a challenge, especially on the road. Despite some strides, including 15 made three-pointers on Friday, the Sun Devils face an uphill battle against a much stronger opponent.

Gonzaga’s Offensive Depth and Early Dominance

Gonzaga looked formidable in their 101-63 win over Baylor, signaling their high potential this season. The addition of guards Khalif Battle (from Arkansas) and Michael Ajayi (from Pepperdine) has added even more firepower to an already strong roster, making Gonzaga’s offense especially potent. This depth and experience advantage could overwhelm an ASU team still finding its footing.

With Gonzaga showcasing an explosive offense and Arizona State working through growing pains with a young roster, the Bulldogs have a clear path to covering the 19.5-point spread.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Milwaukee Bucks

Pick: Celtics -4 / Wager: 4%

Bucks’ Struggles and Defensive Vulnerabilities

The Bucks have struggled significantly this season, posting a 2-7 record, with their only wins coming against an injury-plagued 76ers team and a Jazz squad near the bottom of the league. Of their seven losses, five have been by double digits, including an 11-point defeat to the Celtics in Boston. Milwaukee’s defensive inconsistencies have left them vulnerable against stronger teams, and they haven’t been able to find consistent form.

Celtics’ Consistency and Depth

Even with Jaylen Brown listed as questionable due to a hip issue, the Celtics’ overall strength and depth should enable them to cover the spread. Boston’s balanced lineup, featuring reliable options on both offense and defense, has given them a clear advantage over struggling teams like Milwaukee. Boston’s ability to capitalize on Milwaukee’s weaknesses makes them a solid pick here.

With Boston’s far superior form and Milwaukee’s struggles, the Celtics -4 is a strong play, even if Brown is sidelined.

NBA: Sacramento Kings at Phoenix Suns

Pick: Suns -1.5 / Wager: 3%

Suns’ Resilience and Defensive Improvement Under Budenholzer

Despite being without Kevin Durant (calf strain) and possibly Jusuf Nurkic (ankle), Phoenix’s system under new coach Mike Budenholzer has the team operating efficiently, particularly on defense. The Suns are 8-1, with Budenholzer instilling a stronger defensive focus than previous head coach Frank Vogel, allowing Phoenix to remain competitive even with key players sidelined.

Impact of Emerging Rookie Ryan Dunn

Phoenix does have some positive roster news, as rookie Ryan Dunn is expected to play. Dunn has been a surprise contributor off the bench, offering reliable 3-point shooting and solid defense, which will help the Suns maintain their rhythm without Durant. His presence adds depth to a roster that will need all available contributors to cover Durant’s absence.

Kings’ Schedule and Potential Fatigue

The Kings come into this game after a home loss to the Clippers on Friday, facing a quick turnaround and travel. The schedule has been relatively favorable, but they may not be as fresh as the Suns, who are motivated to hold their ground without Durant.

With Phoenix’s improved defense and Sacramento coming off a tough game, the Suns -1.5 offers value as they look to keep their momentum despite the injury challenges.

NFL: New England Patriots at Chicago Bears

Pick: Under 38.5 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Patriots +6.5 / Wager: 2%

Patriots’ Offensive Struggles and Defensive Matchup

The Patriots’ offense has been inconsistent, failing to reach even 300 yards in their last eight games. Facing Chicago’s defense, ranked fifth in points allowed, the Patriots may continue to struggle moving the ball effectively. With rookie QB Drake Maye leading New England’s offense, it’s unlikely the Patriots will break out offensively against one of the league’s tougher defenses.

Bears’ Offensive Challenges with Key Injuries

Chicago’s offensive line is weakened with starting tackles Braxton Jones and Darnell Wright out due to knee injuries, which could impact the Bears’ ability to protect their quarterback and sustain drives. In recent games against higher-scoring offenses, the Bears were involved in low-scoring contests, with point totals of 33 and 38. This matchup has additional under potential given the limitations on both offenses.

Game Outlook

With both teams fielding rookie quarterbacks and offenses struggling to find consistency, this game projects to be a low-scoring affair, making the under 38.5 an appealing play. Additionally, given Chicago’s offensive issues and the Patriots’ potential to keep this game close, taking New England +6.5 offers solid value in what’s likely to be a tightly contested matchup.

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars

Pick: Vikings -6.5 / Wager: 3%

Impact of Trevor Lawrence’s Potential Absence

The spread’s movement reflects concerns that Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence may be sidelined due to injury. Jacksonville’s recent improvement has been largely under his leadership, so his absence would be a significant setback. The recent signing of veteran QB C.J. Beathard adds weight to the likelihood that Lawrence could miss this game, potentially stalling the Jaguars’ offensive momentum.

Vikings’ Consistency and Defensive Edge

Minnesota has been strong this season, with only two losses straight-up and against the spread. One of those losses was by a narrow two-point margin to the high-performing Detroit Lions. Despite a slight dip after their impressive start, the Vikings remain a solid team with a consistent defense and balanced offense. They are well-positioned to take advantage of Jacksonville’s instability at quarterback.

NFL: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Pick: Broncos +8.5 / Wager: 3%

Favorable Spot to Fade the Chiefs as Big Favorites

The Chiefs, coming off a hard-fought OT win against the Buccaneers on Monday, face a quick turnaround, which can be challenging, especially for a team expected to cover a large spread. Historically, big favorites following an OT Monday night game often struggle to win by a significant margin the next week. While the Chiefs remain undefeated, they haven’t consistently blown out opponents, with only two wins by double digits this season.

Broncos’ Defensive Potential and Market Overvaluation of the Chiefs

Denver’s defense, typically a strength, struggled against the Ravens but could find better success against a Chiefs team that hasn’t excelled in securing large-margin victories. Teams that remain undefeated often see overinflated spreads, as the market begins to overvalue their performance (a trend evident in the ’07 Patriots’ ATS performance after their initial 8-0 ATS run). The post-MNF fatigue factor could make it challenging for the Chiefs to win comfortably.

Game Outlook

Given the Chiefs’ tight schedule and tendency to keep games close, the Broncos +8.5 is a solid pick. Denver’s defense should have a better showing, and with the Chiefs possibly feeling the effects of a short week, this game has the potential to stay within the spread. Expect a closer contest than the line suggests.

NFL: Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints

Pick: Falcons -3 / Wager: 2%

Saints’ Struggles and Coaching Transition

The Saints are on a seven-game losing streak, with interim head coach Darren Rizzi stepping in after Dennis Allen’s departure. Historically, teams with an interim coach debuting midseason haven’t fared well, going 16-22 straight up since 2000. Rizzi, though experienced as a coordinator, lacks prior NFL head coaching experience, and the Saints’ current form suggests he’s inheriting a tough challenge.

Injury Impact on Saints’ Offense

Quarterback Derek Carr may return, but his options are limited. Top receiver Chris Olave, dealing with his second concussion, seems unlikely to play. Without Olave, the Saints’ already struggling offense (ranked 21st) faces further limitations, leaving them at a disadvantage against a Falcons team on a strong 5-1 SU run.

Falcons’ Offensive Edge

Atlanta’s offense ranks seventh, far above New Orleans. Given the Falcons’ recent success and stability, along with the Saints’ issues and lack of offensive firepower, Atlanta has a significant edge heading into this matchup.

NFL: San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Pick: 49ers -5.5 / Wager: 4%

Pick: Jauan Jennings over 42.5 receiving yards / Wager: 2%

Pick: Baker Mayfield over 0.5 interceptions / Wager: 2%

49ers’ Health Advantage and Historical Post-Bye Success

The 49ers come into this game fresh off their bye, healthier than they’ve been all season. Key players like Christian McCaffrey are set to return, providing a boost to an already potent offense. Historically, the 49ers have been dominant in the second half of the season, with a 23-4 record in Weeks 10-18 since 2021. Last season, a similarly timed bye led to a 34-3 win over Jacksonville, sparking a strong finish. Facing a Buccaneers team coming off a grueling Monday night game, the 49ers are well-positioned to cover the spread.

Jauan Jennings’ Expanded Role

With Brandon Aiyuk sidelined, Jauan Jennings is expected to take on a larger role in the 49ers’ passing game. Upgraded to a full practice, Jennings’ size and ability to create separation make him a key target, especially in the middle of the field where Tampa Bay struggles (ranked 28th in pass defense there). Jennings has shown he can step up in these situations, and the matchup should enable him to exceed 42.5 receiving yards.

Mayfield’s Likelihood of an Interception

Baker Mayfield has thrown at least one interception in five of nine games this season and will likely face pressure to keep up with the 49ers’ offense. While he avoided multiple picks against the Chiefs, there were close calls. The 49ers’ defense ranks fourth in the NFL with 10 interceptions, and Mayfield could be forced into risky throws if Tampa Bay falls behind, increasing his interception risk. With the Bucs on a short week and Mayfield potentially less than 100%, this sets up well for a 49ers defensive takeaway.

NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers at Washington Commanders

Pick: Steelers +3 / Wager: 4%

Steelers’ Strong History Post-Bye and Mike Tomlin’s Edge

The Steelers come into this matchup well-prepared after a bye week, and Mike Tomlin has a history of getting his team ready with extra time, going 4-0 SU and ATS in his past four games following a bye. Tomlin’s ability to exploit matchups, particularly against rookie quarterbacks, is noteworthy and gives Pittsburgh a significant edge here. The Commanders are also dealing with the absence of key players like Brian Robinson and newly acquired Marshon Lattimore, which could impact their depth on both sides of the ball.

Pittsburgh’s Offensive Momentum and Recent Roster Additions

The Steelers have shown offensive improvement, averaging 31 points per game in their last three games and acquiring WR Mike Williams and pass rusher Preston Smith to bolster both offense and defense. With Russell Wilson running the offense efficiently, Pittsburgh has generated over 400 yards in consecutive games. The Commanders’ defense has faced limited pass rush pressure this season, but the Steelers’ defensive front should bring that intensity, especially with Washington facing injuries on their offensive line.

Commanders’ Recent Cooling Off

After a hot start, Washington’s recent performances have been less impressive, with close wins against the Bears and Giants by narrow margins. While they opened the season strong, their recent struggles indicate they could be vulnerable, particularly against a rested and recharged Steelers squad.

Pittsburgh’s track record coming out of the bye and Tomlin’s preparation style give the Steelers a strong chance to not only cover but potentially win outright.

NFL: Tennessee Titans at Los Angeles Chargers

Pick: Chargers -7.5 / Wager: 3%

Pick: Will Levis over 0.5 interceptions / Wager: 2%

Chargers’ Turnover Advantage and Defensive Dominance

The Chargers have excelled in ball security, ranking in the top four for turnover margin, which has been a cornerstone of their success. Jim Harbaugh’s impact on the defense is clear, as they’re allowing a league-best 12.6 points per game. This defensive strength, combined with Justin Herbert’s efficient play, positions the Chargers as a tough matchup for a Titans team that has struggled against high-caliber offenses.

Titans’ Defensive Struggles and Passing Game Vulnerabilities

The Titans’ defense, while strong early in the season, has regressed, giving up 5.5 yards per play over their last three games. Tennessee’s secondary has been vulnerable, particularly against strong quarterbacks, and Herbert is likely to exploit this. The Chargers’ recent wins have all been by seven or more points, while the Titans have five losses of seven or more, making this matchup lean heavily toward a Chargers cover.

Will Levis’ Risk of Turnovers

With Tennessee’s offense lacking firepower, there’s increased pressure on rookie QB Will Levis (or backup Mason Rudolph) to keep pace with Herbert and the Chargers. This scenario could force Levis into high-risk situations, making him more likely to throw an interception. The Chargers’ disciplined defense and ball-hawking secondary further increase the likelihood of a turnover.

The Chargers’ defensive dominance and Tennessee’s tendency to struggle when behind make this a strong spot for Los Angeles to cover -7.5. With Levis in a high-risk situation, the over 0.5 interceptions also holds value.

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Pick: Eagles -7 / Wager: 2%

Pick: Saquon Barkley over 90.5 rushing yards / Wager: 2%

Eagles’ Offensive Firepower and Cowboys’ Defensive Vulnerabilities

The Eagles enter this game with significant momentum, having scored 93 points over their last three games. Their offense has been coming alive, and Jalen Hurts hasn’t thrown an interception in five games, showcasing efficient and steady play. Philadelphia has won four straight games despite not yet reaching their peak performance, and they’ll be motivated to take down a Cowboys team that embarrassed them in Dallas last season. The Eagles also bring a powerful ground game, ranking No. 2 in rushing yards per game (178), which should exploit a Cowboys defense currently ranked 30th against the run, allowing an average of 147 rushing yards per game.

Saquon Barkley’s Recent Dominance Against a Vulnerable Run Defense

Saquon Barkley has been a workhorse in recent games, posting rushing totals of 176, 108, and 159 yards, and clearing the 90.5-yard mark in six of eight games this season. With the Cowboys surrendering 5.0 yards per carry over the past three games, Barkley is in a prime position for another big performance. Given his recent form and Dallas’ struggles against the run, Barkley could be in line for another monster workload, especially in a divisional matchup where the Eagles will look to control the tempo on the ground.

Cowboys’ Offensive Instability and Defensive Struggles

With Dak Prescott dealing with a thumb injury, the Cowboys may rely on Cooper Rush, who struggled last week, completing just around 50% of his passes. Dallas’ offense has shown inconsistency, and their defense has struggled, allowing 28 points per game at home with a -66 scoring differential across three games. Even the return of Micah Parsons might not solve the Cowboys’ run defense issues, making this a tough matchup for Dallas on both sides of the ball.

The Eagles, eager to avenge last season’s loss in Dallas, should have the edge in this matchup, and taking them -7 offers solid value. Expect Barkley to play a central role in the game, making his over 90.5 rushing yards prop another favorable pick.

NFL: Detroit Lions at Houston Texans

Pick: Lions -3 / Wager: 4%

Lions’ Strong ATS Record and Offensive Dominance

The Lions are rolling at 7-1 both straight up and against the spread, covering in six consecutive games. Head coach Dan Campbell has developed an aggressive approach, often going for it on 4th down, and seems to keep the spread in mind as Detroit consistently covers. The Lions’ offense is firing on all cylinders, scoring an NFL-best 32 points per game. Jared Goff has been highly efficient, completing over 80% of his passes in each of the last three games, and the Lions lead the league with a 74% completion rate, highlighting their precision and consistency.

Texans’ Defensive Strength and Key Injury Concerns

The Texans boast the league’s No. 2 defense, allowing just 287 yards per game, and have kept games competitive with their stout defensive play. However, Houston’s receiving corps is in flux, with both Nico Collins and Tank Dell questionable for this matchup. If neither can suit up, the Texans could be forced to rely on Robert Woods as their primary receiver, which would make it challenging to generate enough offense, particularly against a team as strong as Detroit. The Lions also face an injury with Taylor Decker out, but the absence of Texans’ pass rusher Will Anderson offsets this loss.

Potential Line Movement Based on Availability

The line may stay at -3 if Collins and Dell are available for Houston, but if both receivers are ruled out, the line could move past -4 in Detroit’s favor. With Houston’s offensive limitations and the Lions’ balanced, high-powered attack, Detroit is in a strong position to secure another cover.