Monday Night Football, NCAA Hoops, NBA & NHL Picks

Football Weekend Recap, Tier Credits Gains, and Monday Night Football

It was another mixed weekend in football for BrownBagBets, with a pair of .500 days and a slight dip in bankroll. However, thanks to our high-volume approach, there’s a silver lining—those 30+ plays over the past two days have racked up significant tier credits with our preferred betting platform. This reimbursement in credits has once again proven valuable, offsetting the bankroll loss and then some in actual dollar value. At BrownBagBets, we’re always looking for ways to make each play count, not only on the scoreboard but also in terms of long-term rewards.

Monday Night Football and Tonight’s Slate

With the weekend behind us, we’re shifting focus to a packed Monday night lineup headlined by Monday Night Football, along with college basketball, NBA, and NHL games.

• NFL Monday Night Football:

  • The Miami Dolphins head west to take on the Los Angeles Rams in a matchup that promises intrigue. The Dolphins, led by Tua Tagovailoa, are dealing with uncertainty in the receiving corps, as Tyreek Hill is managing a wrist injury that could impact his performance. Meanwhile, the Rams’ Puka Nacua is aiming to get back to his standout form after battling injuries early this season. With both teams having something to prove, we’re digging into props and line movements to identify the best plays for tonight’s game.

• NCAA Basketball:

  • The college basketball season is heating up, and tonight offers a handful of interesting matchups:

    • Buffalo heads to Notre Dame in a game where the Bulls don’t appear to have the same underdog magic we’ve seen in previous seasons. Still, this one could provide some value as we assess Notre Dame’s early-season form.

    • Gardner-Webb travels to take on Pittsburgh, where Jeff Capel’s Panthers have been lighting up the scoreboard. We’re analyzing both matchups and more to find the best plays on tonight’s college hoops board.

• NBA:

  • A solid lineup of 10 NBA games is on tap, with teams settling into the season and early trends taking shape. Tonight’s slate offers plenty of potential, and we’ll be looking for value plays as we continue to track matchups and recent performances.

• NHL:

  • Rounding out the night, 7 NHL games bring a full set of matchups for us to evaluate. Our NHL model has been identifying strong edges recently, and tonight’s games present more chances to keep that momentum going. We’re zeroing in on teams with favorable matchups and seeking value in both sides and totals.

Staying the Course and Maximizing Value

While this past football weekend didn’t deliver the gains we aimed for, the BrownBagBets approach continues to prove its value beyond each individual play. By betting volume and maximizing tier credits, we’re adding real value to our bottom line that helps offset any minor losses. Tonight’s lineup across NFL, NCAA basketball, NBA, and NHL offers plenty of options, and we’re ready to capitalize with smart, disciplined plays.

Let’s stay focused, keep building on our process, and make this Monday night another winning one!

NFL: Miami Dolphins at Los Angeles Rams
Pick: Rams -2.5 / Wager: 4%

Rams’ Defensive Edge and Pressure on Tua
The Rams' defense has been gaining traction, fresh off a dominant seven-sack performance. They rank impressively over the last five weeks, allowing just 3.7 yards per carry, ranking 6th in passing rating, and sitting 5th in pressure rate. With Miami’s offensive line struggling (30th in sack rate allowed), Tua Tagovailoa could face constant pressure, limiting his effectiveness, especially given his reliance on short throws.

Dolphins’ Recent Struggles and Questionable Motivation
The Dolphins are coming off two disappointing losses to the Cardinals and Bills and have struggled to regain their rhythm offensively, even after Tua’s return. Miami’s defense has also had trouble containing strong offenses, which could be a challenge facing a Rams team that’s been bolstered by the return of Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Tua is just 1-3 this season, and Miami is 2-6 ATS, missing covers by an average of over 8 points per game.

Rams’ Urgency and Sean McVay’s Tactical Advantage
With competition tightening in the NFC West, the Rams can’t afford any setbacks. Head coach Sean McVay has a clear tactical edge, understanding Mike McDaniel’s offensive approach well. With the Rams’ recent momentum—recovering from a 1-4 start and winning three straight—they are well-positioned to keep up their intensity, especially at home. Additionally, with Tyreek Hill potentially out, Miami’s offensive threats become even more limited.

Given the Rams’ defensive resurgence, Miami’s inconsistency, and the motivation within the NFC West, the Rams -2.5 offers strong value.

NCAAB: Buffalo at Notre Dame
Pick: Notre Dame -20.5 / Wager: 2%

Buffalo’s Roster Overhaul and Early Struggles
Buffalo is in full rebuilding mode this season, entering with one of the lowest-rated rosters in college basketball. Their recent 87-79 win over Division III Fredonia State exposed major defensive issues, as they allowed Fredonia to shoot 50% from the field and 48.5% from beyond the arc. They were only able to out-rebound their lower-division opponent by a slim margin, highlighting their lack of size and defensive presence.

Notre Dame’s Expected Dominance
Notre Dame comes into this game well-positioned to exploit Buffalo’s weaknesses. The Irish have the size, depth, and skill to control both ends of the court, making a blowout likely. While a large spread always opens the door for a possible backdoor cover, the line shift from -18.5 to -20.5 reflects confidence in Notre Dame’s advantage, and anything under -23 still holds value.

With Buffalo’s roster still finding its footing and Notre Dame expected to control the game, the Irish -20.5 is a solid pick.

NCAAB: Gardner-Webb at Pittsburgh

Pick: Over 150.5 / Wager: 3%

Pittsburgh’s High-Scoring Start Under Jeff Capel Pittsburgh is off to a strong offensive start, averaging nearly 90 points per game in their first two outings. Jeff Capel has been giving his starters extended minutes, and it’s paid off with high point totals, as both of Pitt’s games have comfortably exceeded the 150-point mark. Sophomore guard Jaland Lowe is emerging as a key scorer, putting up 20.5 points per game so far, while transfer Damian Dunn has been a reliable contributor with 15 points per game.

Gardner-Webb’s Increased Tempo Under New Leadership Gardner-Webb, under new head coach Jeremy Luther, has been playing at a faster pace, which could further fuel the game’s scoring potential. The Bulldogs’ willingness to push the tempo aligns well with Pittsburgh’s offensive rhythm, suggesting a high-scoring matchup is likely.

With Pittsburgh’s scoring depth and Gardner-Webb’s accelerated pace, this game has a strong setup to surpass the 150.5-point total. The over holds solid value given both teams’ early-season style and personnel.

NCAAB: Tennessee Chattanooga at Austin Peay

Pick: Chattanooga ML / Wager: 2%

Austin Peay’s Challenge in Following Up a Major Upset Austin Peay pulled off a surprising upset over Butler as significant underdogs, but following up such performances can be challenging, especially against a resilient Chattanooga team. This matchup sets up as a potential letdown spot for Austin Peay after their big win, particularly with Chattanooga coming in focused on securing their first win.

Chattanooga’s Resilience Against Strong Opponents The Mocs enter this game after tough matchups on the road against USC and Saint Mary’s. While they didn’t win, Chattanooga demonstrated resilience, especially in a competitive showing against Saint Mary’s, where reserve Makai Richards emerged as a key contributor. Richards could see more floor time and add depth to the Mocs’ lineup, enhancing their chances against Austin Peay.

NCAAB: Idaho at Washington State

Pick: Over 155 / Wager: 3%

Washington State’s Fast Start and High-Scoring Potential Washington State has surprised early in the season, putting up impressive offensive numbers under new head coach David Riley, who joined from Eastern Washington. Riley brought key pieces from his previous 21-win team, including top scorer Cedric Coward, who is averaging 20.5 points per game. The Cougars have scored at a brisk pace, averaging 96 points over their first two games, indicating a willingness to play fast and push the scoring.

Idaho’s Improved Offense with Key Transfers The Idaho Vandals have also shown offensive potential, averaging 84.5 points per game to start the season, aided by impactful transfers like guards Jack Payne and Isaiah Brickner. With just a short trip to Pullman, the Vandals will look to keep pace with the Cougars and capitalize on their early-season scoring upgrades.

NHL: San Jose Sharks at Philadelphia Flyers

Pick: Sharks +1.5 / Wager: 2%

Sharks’ Recent Form and Goaltending Confidence The Sharks have shown resilience recently, winning five of their last seven games, including a strong 1-0 shutout win over New Jersey to kick off their East Coast road trip. Tonight, Vitek Vanacek will be in goal for San Jose, a reliable option who has won two of his last three starts, notably securing a 4-2 victory against the Kings that helped ignite San Jose’s current momentum.

Flyers’ Offensive Struggles and Recent Skid Philadelphia comes into this game off a 3-game road swing, having lost three of their last four matchups. Scoring has been an issue for the Flyers, managing only 13 goals over their past six games, which could be a challenge against a Sharks team that’s found recent success on the defensive end.

NBA: Sacramento Kings at San Antonio Spurs

Pick: Spurs +2 / Wager: 4%

Spurs’ Recent Boost and Kings’ Fatigue Factor The Spurs come into this game looking to bounce back from a disappointing loss to the Jazz, but the return of Devin Vassell—who scored 21 points in just 22 minutes—should give them a much-needed lift. Meanwhile, the Kings are on the second night of a back-to-back after an exhausting OT win over the Suns, where several key players logged heavy minutes: DeMar DeRozan (43), Keegan Murray (43), De’Aaron Fox (41), and Domantas Sabonis (39). Sacramento may choose to rest one of these core players or limit minutes, especially with Sixth Man Malik Monk questionable after an injury on Sunday.

San Antonio’s Strong ATS Record at Home The Spurs have shown solid recent performance against the spread at home, going 8-3 ATS in their last 11. With the Kings potentially dealing with fatigue and roster limitations, the Spurs are well-positioned to capitalize, especially if they can carry over the intensity and energy that Vassell brings.

NBA: Los Angeles Clippers at Oklahoma City Thunder

Pick: Under 218.5 / Wager: 3%

Thunder’s Defensive Focus and Impact of Holmgren’s Absence Oklahoma City has relied heavily on defense for their recent success, though their scorelines have been on the rise. The loss of Chet Holmgren, their top shot-blocker, due to a hip injury is a setback, especially defensively. However, the Thunder still have defensive stalwart Lu Dort, who has been effective in disrupting key offensive players, as he did against James Harden on November 2, holding him to 4-13 shooting and just 12 points.

Clippers’ Strong Trend Toward the Under The Clippers’ games have consistently leaned toward lower scores, with an 8-2 record to the under this season. Their methodical offensive pace combined with a focus on defense aligns with the Thunder’s preference for defensive battles, particularly with Holmgren sidelined.