NFL Season Kickoff & Winning MLB Picks: September Starts Strong!

Last night was another winning evening for the BrownBagBets community, as our 5 MLB plays resulted in a solid 3-2 record. With our proprietary Bankroll Intelligence approach, even a slight edge can turn into a win, and last night was a perfect example of that. September is already shaping up to be a great month, with 3 of the first 4 nights ending in profit. Thanks to last night's gains, our total bankrolls now sit at 124% of our starting amount for the month!

Today, Thursday, September 5th, marks the beginning of what we call a sports bettor's paradise—the official kickoff of the 2024 NFL season! The action begins when the Baltimore Ravens visit the Kansas City Chiefs in a rematch of last year's AFC Championship Game. In that showdown, the Chiefs prevailed 17-10 on their way to another Super Bowl title.

Kickoff from Arrowhead Stadium is set for 8:20 p.m. ET, with the Chiefs as 3-point favorites and the over/under set at 46.5 points. Whether you're eyeing the moneyline, the spread, or total points, this game is sure to set the tone for an exciting NFL season.

As we dive into the weekend, it only gets better. Not only do we have NFL action tonight and again on Friday, but we've got a full slate of NCAA Football games to enjoy through the weekend, including Sunday's NFL lineup. Of course, we won’t forget about MLB—as the playoff picture sharpens, there are plenty of opportunities to bet as teams start setting their rotations for October baseball.

Let’s make September even bigger than August! Let’s get this bag, team!

NFL: Baltimore Ravens at Kansas City Chiefs

Betting Trends:
The total for this game opened at 47 and has remained steady despite over 80% of the public betting on the Over. Last season’s AFC title game ended with a 17-10 scoreline, reinforcing the trend toward lower scoring in this matchup.

Historical Trends:
The Chiefs have hit the under in 14 of their 21 games, particularly at home, where they’ve hit the under in eight of nine games. This trend continued with their 41-point total against the Lions last season. Primetime games since 2019 have seen the under hit 59.5% of the time, and the past two seasons have shown a 79-48 trend towards the under.

Off Season Changes:
Lamar Jackson is making his first appearance of the season, and with three new starters on the Ravens’ offensive line, there could be an adjustment period affecting offensive efficiency. Baltimore is expected to go run-heavy with Derrick Henry, which could limit scoring chances. The Chiefs’ defense might be weaker, but their improved offense could still result in a lower-scoring game due to the adjustments needed.

Prime Time Game Analysis:
Since 2019, unders in primetime games have been hitting at a 59.5% rate. The Chiefs’ performance in primetime games supports this trend, with the under being a consistent outcome in their games.

Pick and Wager:

• Under 47 / Wager: 2%

• Chiefs -3 @ +100 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Houston Astros at Cincinnati Reds

Betting Trends: The Astros have shown resilience and bounce-back capability, with Hunter Brown leading their pitching staff effectively. Since May, Brown has been a consistent performer, and Houston's lineup, despite the loss of Kyle Tucker, has been formidable.

Historical Trends: Houston has a strong record of winning by at least 2 runs in their recent games. Hunter Brown has posted a 2.12 ERA over his last 16 starts, and all of his last 11 wins have been by a margin of 2 or more runs.

Day Game Analysis: After a tough first inning on Wednesday, Houston is poised for a bounce-back performance. They face a Reds lineup that has been inconsistent and a young pitcher in Rhett Lowder, who might struggle against the veteran-heavy Astros lineup.

Pick: Astros -1.5 @ +100
Wager: 3%

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Team Form:

The Phillies are focusing on Ranger Suarez, who has struggled since his return to the lineup. In his second start since coming back, Suarez allowed four runs and five hits in just four innings against the Braves, leading to a 7-2 loss. This raises concerns about his current effectiveness, especially as the postseason approaches.

Pitching Analysis:

Adam Oller, the Marlins' starter, has shown promising recent form. He has allowed just one run and six hits across 11⅔ innings in his last two starts against the Cubs and Giants. This improvement positions him as a strong counter to Suarez’s struggles.

Historical Matchup:

In previous matchups between these teams, the Marlins have often been competitive and have managed to keep games close. This trend supports the idea that they can cover a +1.5 run line against the Phillies, especially with Suarez’s recent performance issues.

Recent Performance:

The Marlins have been resilient and have played well in close games. With the Phillies dealing with uncertainty in their rotation, the Marlins have a solid chance to keep the game within a 1.5 run margin.

Pick: Marlins +1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 3%

Colorado Rockies at Atlanta Braves

Pitching Matchup:

Austin Gomber’s road performance has been consistently poor, with a 4.89 ERA overall and a 5.90 ERA in his last 15 starts. The Rockies have struggled significantly with Gomber on the mound, losing eight of his last ten road starts, six of which were by more than 1.5 runs. Gomber has allowed four or more earned runs in nine of his last 15 starts, making him a frequent fade candidate.

Team Trends:

The Rockies have a dreadful road record of 19-51 entering Wednesday, and 10 of their last 11 road losses were by 2 or more runs. This trend indicates a strong likelihood that they will continue to struggle on the road, especially against a formidable opponent like the Braves.

Home Advantage:

Reynaldo Lopez has been exceptional at home, boasting a 1.72 ERA. The Braves have a solid track record when he pitches, with a 14-8 record and 12 of those wins coming by 2 or more runs. His last six home victories have all been by multiple runs, highlighting his effectiveness in securing larger margins of victory.

Playoff Push:

The Braves are in a tight playoff race and are performing well, especially at home. Their push for the postseason increases their motivation to secure wins by comfortable margins, particularly against struggling teams like the Rockies.

Pick: Braves -1.5 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Detroit Tigers at San Diego Padres

Team Form:

Since their first game loss after the All-Star break, the Padres have been the best team in baseball, showcasing a strong resurgence and consistent performance. This solid form contrasts with the Tigers, who, despite a decent run before this series, are expected to experience regression.

Pitching Matchup:

Casey Mize, the Tigers' starter, has struggled on the road this season with a 5.05 ERA. He was recently hit hard by the Red Sox's lackluster offense, which raises concerns about his effectiveness against a potent Padres lineup.

Padres’ Pitching Success:

The Padres have been undefeated in Martin Perez’s starts since acquiring him, reflecting his positive impact and the team's confidence in his ability to secure wins. This trend supports betting on a margin victory when Perez is on the mound.

Current Trends:

The Padres' exceptional performance since the All-Star break and the regression likely faced by the Tigers suggest a favorable outcome for San Diego. The Padres have maintained a high level of play, particularly at home.

Pick: Padres -1.5 @ +130 / Wager: 2%