NFL Season Kicks Off Strong: Packers vs. Eagles in Brazil & More Winning Picks

Last night was another winning night for our small plays on the NFL opener, as the rematch of the AFC Championship went exactly as we predicted. We hit the over 47 points and saw the Chiefs cover the 3-point spread. It's clear that BrownBagBets is picking up in football right where we left off last season!

MLB didn’t treat us as kindly, but with fewer plays on the board, it wasn’t a heavy loss. This is all part of the bigger picture, and that’s how we maintain our consistency here at BrownBagBets. As we always say, we’re in it for the long haul, and our bankroll management system keeps us steady even on mixed nights. For September, we currently sit at 115% of our starting bankroll.

Tonight, the NFL season continues with a historic first: a game played in Sao Paulo, Brazil. This matchup between NFC contenders—the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles—is set to be an exciting one. The Eagles are coming off an 11-6 season and secured the fifth seed in last year’s NFC Playoffs. Meanwhile, Green Bay finished 9-8 and slipped into the playoffs as a Wild Card.

Kickoff from Neo Quimica Arena is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET, and the Eagles are two-point favorites in the latest odds. The over/under is set at 49.5 points, with the Eagles at -131 on the money line and the Packers as +111 underdogs.

The first full weekend of football is upon us, and it's packed with action from both NCAA Football and NFL games. Let’s keep riding this wave and bag some wins. September’s just getting started—let's get this bag!

NFL: Philadelphia Eagles vs Green Bay Packers (From Sao Paolo, Brazil)

Betting Trends: This line has moved, as most do in Week 1, but with the Eagles now at -2, it's a value pick. The Eagles have made significant upgrades, particularly on the defensive side of the ball, which could be a game-changer.

Historical Trends: Our simulations set this line at -3.5 for the Eagles, suggesting the Packers might be overvalued after a strong playoff run last season. The Eagles have been impressive in preseason evaluations and are expected to perform well, especially with their key players returning to full health.

Off Season Changes: The addition of Saquon Barkley is notable, offering a significant boost to the Eagles' offense. Despite the Packers' playoff success, the Eagles’ improvements, especially with their upgraded defense, provide a compelling edge.

Prime Time Game Analysis: The line seems unusually low, raising questions about the market's perception of both teams. With the Eagles' strong roster and a solid upgrade in key positions, they are well-positioned to cover the spread.

Pick: Eagles -2 / Wager: 2%

NCAAF: BYU at SMU

Betting Trends: Last year, Jake Retzlaff's performance showed gradual improvement, culminating in strong finishes in his last two games. This year, he's demonstrated significant progress, throwing for 348 yards and three touchdowns in his first game, suggesting a solid chance to cover a double-digit spread.

Historical Trends: SMU had a challenging opener against Nevada, highlighting potential weaknesses. Given BYU's recent form and Retzlaff's promising start, the trend favors BYU covering the spread.

Off Season Changes: Retzlaff's impressive performance in spring practice, including not throwing any interceptions, indicates a high level of preparedness and improvement. This off-season development is crucial for BYU’s potential to cover against SMU.

Prime Time Game Analysis: The large spread against SMU, who struggled in their first game, presents an opportunity to capitalize on BYU's momentum and Retzlaff's strong showing. The double-digit line seems favorable given the current form.

Pick: BYU +11.5 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Colorado Rockies at Milwaukee Brewers

Team Performance: The Brewers are poised for a strong performance at home, where they traditionally play well. The Rockies, by contrast, have struggled significantly on the road, entering Thursday with a dismal 19-52 record and having lost five consecutive games by 2+ runs.

Pitching Matchups: Frankie Montas has been a valuable addition for the Brewers, with Milwaukee boasting a 5-1 record in his starts and achieving three run-line victories. In contrast, Ryan Feltner's struggles are notable; he holds a 5.11 ERA and Colorado is 2-9 in his last 11 road starts, with six of those losses being by 2+ runs.

Recent Trends: The Rockies' recent form includes five straight losses by 2+ runs, underscoring their ongoing struggles. Conversely, the Brewers are looking to capitalize on this opportunity to continue their strong home performance and recent winning streak.

Pick and Wager Details: Brewers -1.5 @ +105 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Cincinnati Reds at New York Mets

Team Performance: The Mets are on a 100-win pace since June, showcasing their strength. They have been performing exceptionally well and are expected to continue their dominant run.

Pitching Matchups: Sean Manaea has been outstanding, with a 19-8 record in his starts for the Mets, including 14 wins by at least 2 runs. His recent form includes a 2.71 ERA and a .566 OPS against, with 8 of his last 15 wins coming by 2+ runs. Manaea was also sharp in an earlier start against the Reds.

Recent Trends: The Mets have a strong track record on the run line after a day off, with a 7-5 record. Given their current hot streak, they are well-positioned to maintain their performance against the Reds, who may experience a downturn after a surprising sweep of the Astros.

Pick and Wager Details: Mets -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 2%

MLB: Seattle Mariners at St. Louis Cardinals

Playoff Implications: The AL West race is heating up, and the Mariners are still in contention. With the Astros recently getting swept by the Reds, Seattle has gained some ground, now trailing by just 4.5 games. The Mariners' performance in the last two games of their series against Oakland suggests they're gaining momentum.

Pitching Matchups: Bryce Miller has been exceptional, posting a 1.88 ERA over his last five starts. His recent form is a key factor for the Mariners as they push for a playoff spot. On the other hand, Erick Fedde has struggled since joining the Cardinals, with St. Louis losing four of his six starts and Fedde holding a 4.64 ERA during this period.

Team Form: The Mariners have shown signs of stabilization, with recent wins boosting their confidence. Meanwhile, the Cardinals have faced difficulties with their pitching, particularly with Fedde, contributing to their inconsistent performance.

Pick and Wager Details: Mariners ML @ +100 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Atlanta Braves

Urgency Factor: The Braves are in a critical spot, having seen the Mets catch up in the NL wild card race. With playoff implications on the line, Atlanta needs a strong performance.

Pitching Edge: Max Fried has been solid recently, pitching seven innings in two of his last three starts. His reliability on the mound gives the Braves an advantage in securing a win by more than one run.

Recent Form: The Blue Jays have struggled in September, losing three straight and six of their last eight games. Their offense has been inconsistent, with a couple of shutouts in recent games. Additionally, Toronto has been poor against teams not named the Angels, going 5-10 over the past three weeks.

Pick: Braves -1.5 @ +125 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins

Starting Pitching Performance: Zack Wheeler has been a key factor in the under hitting for Philadelphia, with five of his last six starts resulting in unders. His ability to limit runs aligns well with the trend of low-scoring games. On the other side, Edward Cabrera of the Marlins has also been effective in recent outings, with three straight games hitting the under while he’s on the mound.

Recent Trends: Both teams have shown a consistent pattern of unders recently. Wheeler’s recent performance and Cabrera’s ability to keep runs low contribute to a favorable under trend. This consistency supports a continued low-scoring affair.

Game Conditions: Given both starters’ strong recent performances and the tendency of their games to go under, this game is set up well for another low-scoring outcome. Both teams’ current form indicates a lower-scoring game is likely.

Pick: Under 7.5 / Wager: 3%

MLB: Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers

Recent Performance: The Angels have shown inconsistency and a lack of patience at the plate, evident from their 3-1 loss in Arlington last night. With rookie Samuel Aldegheri taking the mound, who struggled in his recent start against the Mariners, the Angels face a challenging situation.

Pitching Matchup: Samuel Aldegheri, despite making history as the first Italian-born pitcher in MLB, was hit hard in his previous outing. On the other hand, Gerson Garabito, used as an opener by Bruce Bochy, has been effective with a 2.55 ERA over eleven appearances. Garabito’s performance, combined with a solid bullpen, gives the Rangers an advantage.

Team Dynamics: The Texas Rangers are well-positioned to capitalize on Aldegheri’s struggles, especially with their recent strong play and depth in both pitching and hitting. The Rangers’ ability to utilize the opener strategy effectively adds to their edge.

Pick: Rangers -1.5 @ +130 / Wager: 3%