NFL Week 9, EPL Showdown, NHL Battles, and NCAA Basketball Returns

Ready for a Big NFL Sunday and NCAA Basketball on the Horizon

Yesterday, we took a minor step back with a 6-7 day, but for those who know BrownBagBets, a day like that is just a small part of the journey. We’re right back at it today with a slate packed with NFL Week 9, EPL, NHL, and the anticipation of NCAA basketball tipping off tomorrow. November has arrived, the clocks have turned back, and we’re now in the heart of the betting season where champions are made, and the playoff picture starts to come into focus.

Today’s Betting Slate: NFL Week 9, EPL, and NHL

• NFL Week 9:

We’ve reached the midpoint of the NFL season, and with all but two teams in action today, we’re in for a jam-packed Sunday. It’s a time when the contenders separate themselves from the pretenders, and our data-driven approach is ready to identify the best plays on the board. With matchups that will help solidify the playoff picture, we’re prepared to navigate the opportunities and risks that come with midseason betting.

• EPL Matchweek 10:

Manchester United vs. Chelsea kicks off Sunday’s Premier League action at 11:30 a.m. ET from Old Trafford. Both clubs have been on uneven ground this season, making this matchup a pivotal one for gaining momentum as the league heats up. We’ll be analyzing this game for value plays and sharing our insights.

NHL Highlights:

Today’s NHL slate brings some marquee matchups:

• Islanders vs. Rangers: The Battle of New York takes center stage at Madison Square Garden at 1 p.m., promising an electric atmosphere.

• Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Winnipeg Jets: A clash between two strong early-season teams.

• Capitals vs. Hurricanes: Another top-tier matchup with both teams looking to solidify their standings.

• Our NHL model continues to find hidden value, and today is no different with these matchups and more on the schedule.

The Return of NCAA Basketball: Where BrownBagBets Began

As exciting as today’s slate is, tomorrow marks a special moment for us at BrownBagBets: the return of NCAA basketball. This isn’t just another sport on the calendar for us—it’s where this journey began. March Madness, with its mix of underdog stories, buzzer-beaters, and endless drama, was the birthplace of the analytical approach that grew into BrownBagBets.

Back in the day, what started as a passion for dissecting college hoops turned into a system, then a philosophy, and eventually into the community we have today. The NCAA basketball season is a reminder of why we started: the thrill of the game, the search for value, and the drive to share insights with others who love sports as much as we do. Our team has been prepping for weeks—analyzing rosters, studying offseason changes, and lining up the early indicators that will help guide us through the season.

This is where the magic of BrownBagBets takes on a different level. College basketball isn’t just another season for us; it’s the core of our DNA. From November’s first tip-off to the crescendo of March Madness, we’re ready to take the ride with you.

Keeping the Focus and Playing the Long Game

As we move into November, the focus is on maintaining discipline and sticking to our long-term strategy. Whether it’s NFL, EPL, NHL, or the excitement of NCAA basketball starting tomorrow, we’re ready to keep rolling and find the best plays on the board. Today’s slate is filled with potential, and we’re here to navigate it with the same approach that’s brought success month after month.

Follow along, trust the process, and let’s make this Sunday count!

NFL: Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Bet: Rico Dowdle over 9.5 Rushing Attempts / Wager: 2%

Bet: CeeDee Lamb over 83.5 Receiving Yards / Wager: 2%

Rico Dowdle’s Role and Opportunity

This number for Dowdle’s rushing attempts feels conservative. Before missing last Sunday night’s game due to illness, Dowdle logged 11, 20, and 5 carries in his prior three appearances. Notably, the game with just five carries occurred during a blowout loss to the Lions, where Dallas was forced to abandon the run game early. The struggles of Ezekiel Elliott and Dalvin Cook, who combined for only 46 rushing yards against the 49ers, underscore that neither has proven to be the solution in the Cowboys’ backfield. Dowdle was poised to take on a featured role coming out of the bye week, and there’s no reason to think that plan has changed after a one-game absence. Expect this line to move up to around 11.5 before kickoff.

CeeDee Lamb’s Usage Post-Bye

Last season, Dallas made a point of prioritizing CeeDee Lamb’s involvement in the offense following their bye week, and this season appears to be following the same script. Lamb has been the focal point of their passing attack and is primed for another big game. With the Cowboys’ offense needing to establish dominance against a Falcons secondary that has had mixed results, Lamb’s big-play ability and volume should push him past this modest receiving yard total of 83.5. Expect Dallas to lean heavily on their star receiver to set the tone.

NFL: Denver Broncos at Baltimore Ravens

Bet: Broncos +9.5 / Wager: 4%

Broncos’ Resurgence and Competitive Edge

The Broncos are quietly climbing their way into the AFC playoff picture, having won five of their last six games. This run has shown that Denver is more than capable of competing, even in tough matchups like this two-week stretch facing the Ravens and Chiefs. Remarkably, Denver hasn’t lost a game by more than seven points this season, backed by a defense that’s allowing just 17 points per game. The return of standout cornerback Pat Surtain II is a crucial boost for Vance Joseph’s defense, as it effectively cuts off significant downfield passing options for opponents. Bo Nix has also shown growing confidence under center, steering the Broncos’ offense to notable success.

Ravens’ Challenges and Injury Concerns

On the other side, Lamar Jackson is set to start but was limited in practice throughout the week, raising questions about his readiness. The Broncos’ offense has found a rhythm, scoring 28 or more points in three of their last four games thanks to Nix’s improved play. Baltimore’s defense, while formidable, is dealing with significant injury issues. The status of All-Pro cornerback Marlon Humphrey remains uncertain as he’s been limited all week due to a knee issue. If he’s out or limited, the Ravens’ secondary will be vulnerable, which plays into Denver’s hands.

Key Defensive Stats and Projections

Denver’s defense has been particularly efficient, allowing an NFL-low 4.4 yards per play. While critics might point to the quality of quarterbacks they’ve faced as a factor, this unit has shown they can stifle opposing offenses. Given the Ravens’ potential limitations and the Broncos’ ability to keep games close, this matchup projects to be a tighter contest than the spread suggests. A likely outcome could be a 28-20 win for Baltimore, making the +9.5 points for Denver a valuable play.

NFL: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills

Bet: Bills -5.5 / Wager: 3%

Head-to-Head Dominance and Recent Trends

The Bills come into this matchup with significant historical and situational advantages, having won the last five meetings against the Dolphins, including a victory earlier this season where they managed to knock out Tua Tagovailoa. The Dolphins have struggled to cover spreads, going just 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games. Buffalo’s recent dominance over Miami is marked by a 10-1 record for Josh Allen against the Dolphins since 2019, where he has completed 69.5% of his passes, averaged 277 yards per game, and thrown 29 TDs to only 4 INTs for a 113 passer rating. Tua Tagovailoa, by contrast, has a 1-7 record against Buffalo with a 61.9% completion rate, 7 TDs, and 10 INTs, resulting in a 74.1 passer rating.

Turnover Efficiency and Offensive Precision

A major edge for Buffalo lies in their turnover margin, leading the league at plus-12. Josh Allen has been exceptionally careful with the ball this season, throwing only one interception and contributing to just three total turnovers by the offense (two fumbles). This level of ball security is a testament to a team in sync with its game plan, showcasing the discipline and execution required to handle divisional opponents. Buffalo’s efficient, balanced attack paired with sound coaching underscores why they should control this matchup.

Weather and Home Field Advantage

With colder weather starting to set in at Buffalo, this game presents an additional challenge for Miami. The Dolphins’ performance last week did not reflect the spark many expected with Tua’s return. Buffalo’s recent ATS track record is strong, standing at 5-1-3 in their last nine matchups against Miami, covering the spread by an average of 11.5 points. They are also 4-2-1 ATS in their last seven home games against the Dolphins, covering by an average margin of 10.1 points. The Bills have secured wins in six of the last eight matchups against Miami by a touchdown or more, further cementing their status as the more balanced, better-coached, and overall superior team.

NFL: New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers

Bet: Over 43.5 / Wager: 3%

Quarterback Updates and Offensive Adjustments

Derek Carr’s expected return provides a needed boost for the Saints’ offense, which should translate into more effective downfield plays and better red-zone efficiency. On the Panthers’ side, Bryce Young is set to continue under center for the second consecutive week with Andy Dalton sidelined due to a thumb injury. Young showed signs of improvement in last week’s game against Denver, displaying more confidence in his downfield passing. Offensive coordinator Mike Canales is giving Young another chance to prove himself as Carolina evaluates its quarterback situation heading into the offseason.

Scoring Trends and Previous Matchup Insights

The first meeting between these teams this season resulted in a lopsided 47-10 win for New Orleans, a game that showcased their offensive capabilities. More interestingly, Carolina has seen the total go over in six of their last eight games—a surprising trend given their overall season performance. With Young gaining some footing and the Saints reinvigorated by Carr’s return, both teams have the potential to contribute to the scoring, making the over an appealing play.

Expectations for Game Flow

The Saints should be able to take advantage of a Panthers’ defense that has been inconsistent, while Carolina, with Young showing flashes of growth, could find ways to put points on the board against a New Orleans defense that has shown vulnerability at times. The combination of these factors points toward a game that could exceed the 43.5 total, especially if both offenses come out with more aggressive game plans.

NFL: Las Vegas Raiders at Cincinnati Bengals

Bet: Raiders +7.5 / Wager: 2%

Value in Recent Raiders’ Performances

Despite the Raiders being on a four-game losing streak, they have managed to cover the spread in their last two outings, showing resilience and the ability to keep games competitive. Gardner Minshew’s recent performance against Kansas City, where he completed 80% of his passes and threw for two touchdowns without an interception, indicates that he’s capable of managing the game effectively. This steadiness could be key for the Raiders to stay within the spread in this matchup.

Injury Concerns for the Bengals

Cincinnati faces significant challenges with Tee Higgins and Orlando Brown both listed as doubtful. Their potential absences would put a dent in the Bengals’ offensive production, limiting Joe Burrow’s options in the passing game and affecting the protection up front. This makes a double-digit victory tougher to achieve for Cincinnati, pointing towards a tighter contest.

NFL: Los Angeles Chargers at Cleveland Browns

Bet: Elijah Moore over 3.5 receptions / Wager: 2%

Target Share and Role in the Offense

In Jameis Winston’s first start for the Browns, Elijah Moore emerged as his go-to receiver, leading the team with 12 targets and commanding a substantial 29% first-read target share. His 10 first-read targets in Week 8 ranked fifth among all wide receivers, indicating a strong connection and trust between Winston and Moore. This involvement in the passing game positions Moore well for a productive outing against a defense that struggles to defend underneath routes.

Chargers’ Defensive Vulnerabilities

The Chargers’ defense has been susceptible to giving up high completion rates on short and intermediate throws, which plays directly into Moore’s strengths as a possession receiver. With Cleveland likely to utilize quick passes to counteract the Chargers’ pass rush, Moore should find himself with plenty of opportunities to secure receptions and move the chains.

Projection and Expectation

Given Moore’s volume in recent games and the favorable matchup against the Chargers’ defense, surpassing the 3.5 receptions mark is a solid bet. Expect him to be a primary option in the Browns’ passing attack, making at least four catches and potentially more as Winston continues to rely on his playmaking ability.

NFL: Washington Commanders at New York Giants

Bet: Giants ML @ +175 / Wager: 2%

Resilient Giants and Missed Opportunities

The Giants have endured a tough three-game losing streak since their road upset against the Seahawks, but their recent performances indicate that their record could easily be better if a few breaks had gone their way. Despite being plagued by self-inflicted errors, this team has shown glimpses of competitive play that suggest they’re capable of securing a win, especially at home.

Commanders’ Fortunes and Potential Regression

The Commanders have managed to stay afloat thanks to a series of improbable outcomes, highlighted by last week’s last-second Hail Mary win over the Bears. However, their streak of fortunate breaks is due for regression, and this matchup against a motivated Giants team could be where it turns. In their first meeting this season, New York outplayed Washington, sacking Jayden Daniels five times and preventing the Commanders from reaching the end zone. The Giants’ defensive front proved disruptive, and they’ll look to replicate that pressure.

Game Outlook

Expect the Giants to come out inspired, determined to capitalize on their defensive strengths and finish the job this time around. With the added value of the moneyline at +175, this is a spot where backing New York to secure a home victory is a smart play.

NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars at Philadelphia Eagles

Bet: Eagles -7 / Wager: 3%

Bet: AJ Brown over 79.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 2%

Bet: AJ Brown over 26.5 Longest Reception / Wager: 2%

Bet: AJ Brown Anytime TD @ +110 / Wager: 1%

Eagles’ Advantages and Matchup Analysis

The Eagles’ formidable offensive line is set to dominate a Jacksonville defense that is not only struggling but also dealing with significant injuries. Philadelphia’s ground game, led by Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley, will open up opportunities for big play-action shots downfield. Trevor Lawrence’s record against NFC teams is a glaring weakness—he’s 3-13, with 10 of those losses by a touchdown or more. The Jaguars’ defense ranks 30th in points allowed (28 PPG) and their man coverage scheme is a recipe for disaster when facing A.J. Brown, who thrives against such defenses. The Eagles’ defense has also been surging, holding recent opponents to just 3.9 yards per play, the best in the NFL.

Injury Concerns for Jacksonville

The Jaguars are expected to be short-handed offensively, with Brian Thomas and Christian Kirk both likely out. This further strains Trevor Lawrence’s limited options, placing more pressure on Tank Bigsby. Meanwhile, Travis Etienne’s availability is also in doubt, which would further deplete Jacksonville’s offensive arsenal.

A.J. Brown’s Dominance Against Man Coverage

A.J. Brown has been a matchup nightmare this season, hitting at least 84 receiving yards in his last four games. The Jaguars’ secondary allows the second-most yards per attempt to wide receivers (8.8) and ranks among the bottom in opposing QB rating on passes to WRs. Brown’s ability to capitalize on deep throws and turn short passes into significant gains makes him a key weapon. Given Jacksonville’s poor tackling and their tendency to play more man coverage than any other team, Brown is poised for a big game. He’s hit his longest reception prop in three of his four games this season and should find plenty of chances to extend plays against this defense.

Scoring Opportunities and Red Zone Efficiency

Philadelphia’s recent shift in play-calling suggests more focus on scoring efficiency in the red zone. The Jaguars’ defense ranks among the worst in red zone coverage, making it likely for Brown to be targeted when the Eagles reach scoring territory. His ability to high-point the ball and outmuscle defenders positions him well to find the end zone.

NFL: New England Patriots at Tennessee Titans

Bet: Titans ML / Wager: 2%

Titans’ Potential and Matchup Advantage

The Patriots are coming off a surprising upset win at home against the New York Jets, but now face the challenge of heading on the road to take on a Titans team that has been showing signs of progress. Tennessee has demonstrated flashes of solid play over their last two games, hanging tough in the first half against the Buffalo Bills and showcasing offensive capability in a high-scoring game against the Detroit Lions.

Titans’ Defense and Offensive Upside

While Tennessee’s defense was heavily criticized for allowing 52 points against the Lions, much of that damage came from special teams mishaps. Their defensive unit should find more success containing a Patriots offense that is still finding its identity, particularly with uncertainty surrounding whether Drake Maye will play. Even if he does, the Titans have shown they can move the ball effectively, racking up over 400 yards of offense last week. This sets them up well to take advantage of a Patriots defense that can be inconsistent on the road.

Turnover and Special Teams Regression

Expect regression to the mean for Tennessee’s special teams and turnover luck, which played a major role in last week’s lopsided scoreline. If the Titans can clean up these areas, they should have the upper hand in this matchup. With home-field advantage and a motivated team looking to piece together a complete performance, the Titans are a strong pick to come out on top against New England.

NFL: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks

Bet: Rams -1 / Wager: 4%

Health and Offensive Edge for the Rams

The Rams are coming into this matchup healthier and more balanced offensively. With Puka Nacua expected to play, Matthew Stafford will have his full complement of top receivers, a luxury Geno Smith will not enjoy with DK Metcalf sidelined. The Rams’ offense, led by Stafford and his star WR tandem, is finding its rhythm at the right time, and their recent win over Minnesota adds momentum as they aim to stay competitive in the division race.

Seahawks’ Challenges and Key Absences

Seattle has managed to thrive in games against mediocre teams but faces significant challenges this week. They will be without Metcalf, TE Noah Fant, and tackle Abraham Lucas, which impacts their offensive firepower and protection. The Seahawks’ offense could struggle to keep pace with an L.A. team that has shored up its defensive weaknesses and continues to apply effective QB pressure. Defensively, Seattle remains shorthanded as well, missing edge rusher Uchenna Nwosu, safety Rayshawn Jenkins, and cornerback Artie Burns. These absences make it difficult for Seattle to contain the Rams’ passing attack and limit their defensive effectiveness.

Rams’ Defensive Improvements and Recent Trends

The Rams have addressed some of their earlier defensive issues and have started generating consistent pressure on opposing quarterbacks. This plays to their advantage against a Seahawks offense likely to struggle with missing pieces. Seattle, despite being at home, is just 1-4 SU and ATS at Lumen Field this season, suggesting that their perceived home-field advantage has not translated into results. With Seattle heading into their bye week, the timing may not favor their performance, as they seem to be limping to the finish line before their break.