Tough Start to November, NCAA Basketball Returns, and Monday Night Football"

Facing the Challenge Head-On and Embracing NCAA Basketball’s Return

Another tough day yesterday has put us behind the 8 ball at the start of November, but if there’s one thing BrownBagBets knows how to do, it’s manage a comeback. We’re no strangers to early-month struggles; this is part of the journey, and we know how to navigate our way back to the top. The NFL and NCAA football weekend was brutal, with line adjustments and unexpected outcomes that didn’t play to our favor. But as always, we’re already hard at work identifying what needs adjusting, ensuring we’ll be sharper and ready for next weekend’s action.

The Excitement of NCAA Basketball Returns

Today brings a bright spot as we welcome back NCAA basketball for the 2024-2025 season! For us at BrownBagBets, college hoops is more than just another sport on the calendar—it’s where our love for sports betting began. The analytical approach, the thrill of March Madness, the search for under-the-radar plays; it’s all part of what makes this season special. Our team has spent weeks pouring over preseason data, evaluating teams, and gearing up for tip-off. We’re ready to dive into the action and share our insights as we begin the journey that leads to one of the most electrifying tournaments in sports.

Monday Night Football: Bucs at Chiefs

Tonight, Monday Night Football delivers an intriguing matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-4) and the Kansas City Chiefs (8-0) at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs, still undefeated, will put their perfect record on the line against a scrappy Bucs team that’s shown flashes of resilience throughout the season. With Kansas City’s high-powered offense and Tampa Bay’s tenacity, this game is set to be a thrilling clash that could offer plenty of betting angles.

NBA and NHL Action

Beyond football and basketball, tonight’s NBA and NHL slates provide even more opportunities to get back on track:

• NBA: A diverse lineup of games that we’re analyzing for value, with several teams settling into early-season form. We’ll be looking for favorable matchups and line movements that play into our strengths.

• NHL: An exciting set of matchups on the ice as teams look to find rhythm in their campaigns. Our models are calibrated and ready to identify which sides are undervalued and where the best plays are.

The BrownBagBets Commitment

While this start to November has been a challenge, our history shows we know how to bounce back. We’ve had early setbacks before, and each time, our methodical approach has guided us to profitable months. Our commitment to you is that we’re continuously analyzing, learning, and adjusting to make sure we’re back in the win column. As we launch into NCAA basketball, revisit Monday Night Football, and sift through the NBA and NHL options tonight, we’re here to take the smart shots and play the long game.

Let’s trust the process, stay focused, and make November another month to remember!

NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Kansas City Chiefs
Bet: Rachaad White Over 55.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards / Wager: 3%
Bet: Cade Otton over 4.5 Receptions / Wager: 3%
Bet: Bucs +9.5 / Wager: 3%

Chiefs’ Win Margin and Bucs’ Resilience
While the Chiefs remain the last undefeated threat to the legacy of the 1972 Dolphins, their wins this season have often come without excessive margins. Only one victory has exceeded 10 points—a 13-point win over the mistake-prone Saints. The Buccaneers, on the other hand, have been strong on the road, covering 10 of their last 13 games as visitors, showcasing their ability to stay competitive. They are also 11-7 as underdogs since last season and have only suffered one double-digit loss this year. Baker Mayfield’s resourcefulness will be tested without his primary targets Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, but Tampa Bay has proven its knack for keeping games close.

Rachaad White’s Versatile Role
With the Bucs missing key receivers, Rachaad White’s role in both the running and passing game has expanded. While he shares the backfield with Bucky Irving, injuries to Godwin and Evans have pushed White into a more significant receiving role. Even if Irving is active, White’s versatility should see him receive around 7-8 carries and 3-4 receptions, putting him in a favorable spot to surpass 55.5 combined yards. The combo prop protects against varied game scripts, making it a solid play.

Cade Otton’s Increased Targets and Matchup
Tight end Cade Otton has become Baker Mayfield’s primary option in recent weeks, catching 17 of 20 targets over the past two games. The Chiefs’ defense has struggled against tight ends, allowing an NFL-high 8.71 targets and 7.0 receptions per game to the position. With the Bucs likely playing from behind and needing to throw, Otton is set up to exceed the 4.5 receptions line as he continues to be a focal point in the offense.

Game Outlook
Tampa Bay’s track record as road warriors and solid underdogs aligns well with keeping this game competitive against Kansas City. The Chiefs are adept at controlling games but don’t often push for large margins, giving Tampa Bay a legitimate chance to cover the 9.5-point spread. Expect the Buccaneers to lean on White and Otton as key contributors, with White’s combined yardage and Otton’s reception total both poised to hit their marks in a game where Tampa Bay fights to stay in earshot.

NHL: New Jersey Devils at Edmonton Oilers
Bet: Oilers ML @ +110 / Wager: 3%

Oilers’ Recent Form and Response Without McDavid
Despite the absence of star forward Connor McDavid due to an ankle injury, the Oilers have shown impressive resilience, winning four of their last five games and outscoring their opponents 16-5 in those victories. Even without McDavid, Edmonton has managed to maintain solid offensive output, as evidenced by their 2-0 record without him so far, where they outscored opponents 9-3. The Oilers have shown an ability to rally as a team, particularly in key moments when they’ve needed to step up.

Goaltending Edge with Pickard
Cal Pickard is expected to start for Kris Knoblauch’s squad tonight, and he’s been solid in net, leading Edmonton to wins in his last three starts. This stability between the pipes adds confidence to backing Edmonton in a matchup where consistent goaltending could be pivotal.

Devils’ Road Inconsistencies
The Devils began their road trip on a high note with a dominant 6-0 victory over Vancouver but followed it up with a flat 3-0 loss to Calgary, showcasing their inconsistency. The question of which version of the Devils shows up tonight looms large, and with Edmonton’s current form and motivation to continue their strong play without McDavid, the Oilers present a compelling option.

NBA: Boston Celtics at Atlanta Hawks
Bet: Trae Young Under 28.5 Points / Wager: 2%

Defensive Matchup and Recent Trends
Trae Young enters this matchup averaging 27.0 PPG but has fallen short of the 28.5 mark in four of his last five games. The Celtics, known for their elite defensive schemes, are well-positioned to focus their efforts on limiting Young, especially given Atlanta’s current injury woes that leave fewer offensive threats on the floor. This allows Boston’s defensive pressure to zero in on Young more effectively.

Back-to-Back Game and Fatigue Consideration
This game marks the second of a back-to-back for the Hawks, increasing the potential for fatigue and a possible blowout scenario. Should the game become lopsided, Young’s minutes could be reduced, further decreasing his scoring opportunities.

Modeling and Projection
Projections have Young averaging around 25 points in this contest, indicating value in betting the under. Considering Boston’s defensive capabilities, Atlanta’s injuries, and the factors of playing on consecutive nights, Young staying under 28.5 points is a strong play.

NCAAB: Santa Clara at Saint Louis
Bet: Santa Clara ML / Wager: 4%

Continuity and Experience Advantage
Santa Clara enters this matchup with a significant edge in continuity, returning five of their top six scorers along with three of their primary rebounders and playmakers. This familiarity and established chemistry give them an advantage as the season begins, allowing them to rely on proven team dynamics. Head coach Herb Sendek’s squad already boasts victories over power conference teams like Stanford, Oregon, and Washington State from last season, highlighting their ability to compete against strong competition. The return of guard Carlos Stewart, who previously averaged 15.2 PPG with the Broncos and was an All-WCC honorable mention, adds even more firepower to a well-rounded lineup.

Saint Louis’ Adjustments and Key Absences
The Billikens, under new head coach John Schertz, are entering a period of transition. Schertz had a successful run at Indiana State and has brought over key transfers Robbie Avila and Isaiah Swope. However, Avila, a 6-10 forward expected to play a vital role, only just returned to practice after a significant ankle injury, which could limit his impact in this game. While Saint Louis shows promise with new additions, their cohesion and game-time readiness are less certain compared to Santa Clara’s more settled roster.

Game Setting and Outlook
This game being played at a neutral venue in Sioux Falls, SD, minimizes any true home-court advantage for the Billikens. With Santa Clara’s solid returning core and proven track record against quality opponents, they are well-positioned to secure a win. Expect the Broncos’ experience and balanced play to carry them through this matchup against a Saint Louis team still finding its footing under a new coach and integrating key transfers.

NCAAB: Lipscomb at Duquesne
Bet: Duquesne ML / Wager: 2%

Duquesne’s Continuity and Scoring Edge
Duquesne, coming off an NCAA Tournament appearance last season, is adjusting to a leadership change with long-time head coach Keith Dambrot retiring and assistant coach Dru Joyce stepping up to lead the team. This promotion should ensure continuity in the program’s style and approach. The Dukes were highly successful last season when hitting the 70-point mark, finishing 12-0 in such games and boasting a 31-game winning streak when reaching that milestone.

Lipscomb’s Defensive Vulnerabilities and Scheduling Factor
While Lipscomb is a strong ASUN program and a preseason favorite to win their league, their defensive ranking at 284th in scoring defense presents a potential weakness. This could allow Duquesne to exploit their scoring capabilities and reach the 70-point threshold. Additionally, Lipscomb might have an eye on their upcoming Wednesday game against a ranked Arkansas team, which could lead to a slight focus lapse in this matchup.

NCAAB: Baylor at Gonzaga
Bet: Over 156.5 / Wager: 3%

High-Scoring Offenses and Key Additions
One thing that stands out in this matchup is the offensive firepower on both sides. Last season, Gonzaga averaged an impressive 84.5 points per game (8th nationally), while Baylor wasn’t far behind at 80.4 points per game. Both teams not only bring back experienced scoring threats but have also added impactful newcomers to their rosters. For Gonzaga, keep an eye on Pepperdine transfer Michael Ajayi, a sought-after player in the transfer portal, and Khalif Battle, who averaged 14.3 PPG during his stints at Temple and Arkansas. These additions will blend with Gonzaga’s already dynamic offense to maintain their high-scoring pace.

Baylor’s Offensive Potential
Baylor has similar scoring depth, bolstered by the arrival of 6-5 freshman wing VI Edgecombe, a five-star recruit who adds versatility and scoring punch. The Bears also have veteran guard Jeremy Roach, familiar to fans from his time contributing to Duke’s contending teams over the past three seasons. This combination of seasoned talent and fresh, high-impact newcomers positions Baylor to keep pace with Gonzaga’s offensive tempo.

Game Expectations
Both teams have the personnel and offensive schemes to push this game into high-scoring territory. Given their scoring averages from last season and the enhancements to their rosters, the over on 156.5 points is an attractive play. The matchup is set up to be a showcase of fast-paced, high-efficiency basketball where both sides will look to outscore the other rather than rely solely on defensive stops. Expect plenty of points and an exciting battle that clears the total.