BrownBagBets: Achieving Long-Term Success in MLB Betting

Another strong day for BrownBagBets as we won 4 out of our total 6 MLB plays last night. We now sit at 145% of our starting bankroll for the month of July, and we are truly grateful for the support that our community has provided us over the past two months as we worked diligently to get our MLB priority indicators organized.

At BrownBagBets, we stand for a disciplined and strategic approach to sports betting. We believe that professional handicappers aren’t born—they are crafted through relentless study, discipline, and continuous improvement. Our focus is on winning the total month and the total year, rather than trying to win every single night or every single month. We understand that even the best handicappers in the world only win around 56% of their plays. This long-term perspective is what sets us apart and ensures sustained success for our community. We prioritize the art of smart betting, emphasizing the importance of bankroll management, data analysis, and the willingness to adapt and refine our strategies based on what the numbers show us.

As we look to tonight, we have our eyes set on another subset of the 16 total MLB games on the schedule. Let’s continue this winning streak and make the most of the opportunities ahead!

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Cardinals' Recent Performance

The St. Louis Cardinals have shown resilience and a knack for clutch performances, as evidenced by their win last night. They managed to turn limited baserunners into a victory against the formidable Paul Skenes, a significant achievement. This momentum can carry over into today's game, where the Cardinals look to secure another win.

Pittsburgh's Pitching Struggles

The Pirates will start Martin Perez, who has struggled since his return from the injured list. With an 8.23 ERA in four starts, Perez has not been able to find his form, making him a vulnerable target for the Cardinals' lineup. His recent performances suggest that the Cardinals will have opportunities to score and control the game.

Cardinals' Bullpen Strategy

St. Louis plans to utilize a bullpen game, starting with Matthew Liberatore. This strategy allows the Cardinals to mix and match their pitchers based on matchups, potentially giving them an edge. Liberatore has the potential to set the tone early, and if the game progresses favorably, closer Ryan Helsley can shut the door as he did last night with a dominant ninth inning.

Motivation and Confidence

After securing a victory against a top prospect like Skenes, the Cardinals' confidence is likely high. Their ability to win tight games and make the most of their scoring opportunities gives them an edge in this matchup. The Pirates, on the other hand, may struggle with consistency, especially with Perez on the mound.

Bet: Cardinals ML / Wager: 6%

MLB: San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals

Recent Momentum

The San Diego Padres have shown positive momentum since coming out of the All-Star break, winning two of three games in Cleveland—a team with a strong home record—and securing the first game of their series in Washington, D.C. This recent form indicates the Padres are finding their stride at a crucial point in the season.

Improved Performance Against Left-Handed Pitching

Early in the season, the Padres struggled significantly against left-handed pitchers. However, they have made noticeable improvements in this area, raising their wRC+ against lefties to 99. This upward trend suggests that their lineup is becoming more effective against southpaws, which bodes well for their chances against Nationals' lefty Mitchell Parker.

Parker's Recent Struggles

Mitchell Parker, the Nationals' starter, has had a rough patch recently, posting a 6.20 ERA over his last five starts. His struggles present an opportunity for the Padres' hitters, who have been improving against left-handed pitching. This matchup leans in favor of the Padres, especially given Parker's recent form.

Waldron's Road Effectiveness

On the mound for the Padres is Matt Waldron, who has been reliable on the road with a 2.97 ERA. His effectiveness away from home provides the Padres with a solid foundation to build on, especially against a Nationals team that has had its ups and downs.

Comparative Team Strengths

Overall, the Padres have the edge in this matchup. They are a more balanced team with strengths in both pitching and hitting, particularly given their recent trends. The Nationals, meanwhile, continue to face inconsistencies, especially with their starting pitching.

Bet: Padres ML / Wager: 5%

MLB: New York Mets at New York Yankees

Gerrit Cole's Recent Form

Gerrit Cole has been in top form in his last two starts, showcasing his elite pitching skills. This gives the Yankees a solid advantage on the mound. With Cole pitching at his best, the Yankees are in a prime position to control the game from the start.

Yankees' Motivation

The Yankees will be highly motivated to avoid a season sweep in the Subway Series against their crosstown rivals. This added motivation could provide the extra push needed for a strong performance, especially in front of their home crowd.

Mets' Pitching Struggles

Mets starter Sean Manaea is coming off one of his worst outings of the year, and the Yankees lineup will be looking to capitalize on this. While the Mets might try to pitch around Aaron Judge due to his strong track record against Manaea, the Yankees still have other capable hitters who can step up.

Strategic Play: -1 Instead of -1.5

Choosing the -1 line instead of -1.5 is a strategic move. While the Yankees' offense has been inconsistent outside of Judge and Juan Soto, the -1 line provides a safer bet. If the Yankees win by just one run, we push instead of losing, making this a more favorable option given the circumstances.

Yankees' Recent Hitting

The Yankees' lineup, while not firing on all cylinders, has enough firepower to get the job done against a struggling Manaea. Judge and Soto are key players, but contributions from the rest of the lineup will be crucial in securing a win.

Conclusion

The combination of Cole's excellent form, the Yankees' motivation to avoid a sweep, and Manaea's recent struggles make the Yankees a solid pick. Opting for the -1 line provides a balanced approach, offering better value without the risk associated with the -1.5 line.

Bet: Yankees -1 / Wager: 4%

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers

Texas's Strong Form

The Rangers have been in strong form recently, showing resilience and consistency. Their offense has been productive, and they've managed to convert their opportunities into runs effectively. This level of performance gives them a solid edge over the White Sox.

White Sox's Struggles

The White Sox have had a tough season, and their struggles continue. Their pitching and defense have been inconsistent, often allowing opponents to score easily. This trend is likely to continue against a potent Rangers lineup.

Pitching Matchup

Texas's pitching has been reliable, and their starter tonight is expected to deliver another strong performance. On the other hand, the White Sox's pitching has been less dependable, often leading to high-scoring games for their opponents.

Conclusion

Given the Rangers' recent form and the White Sox's ongoing struggles, Texas has a good chance to win by at least two runs. This makes the -1.5 run line a valuable pick.

Bet: Rangers -1.5 / Wager: 6%

MLB: Tampa Bay Rays vs Toronto Blue Jays

Bullpen Usage and Schedule

The Blue Jays used five relievers last night and face a quick turnaround game on Thursday afternoon. This situation necessitates a longer outing from starter Yariel Rodriguez to give the bullpen some rest.

Player Development

With the Blue Jays out of playoff contention, they are focused on developing future talent. Rodriguez, being part of their future, will likely be given an extended outing to gain experience and demonstrate his capabilities.

Managerial Strategy

Managers typically prefer to let their starters pitch long enough to qualify for a win. This strategic consideration, combined with the need to rest the bullpen, suggests Rodriguez will aim for at least five innings (15 outs) tonight.

Conclusion

Considering the situational factors and strategic motivations, Rodriguez is expected to pitch deep into the game, making the over 14.5 outs a valuable pick.

Bet: Yariel Rodriguez over 14.5 Outs / Wager: 4%

MLB: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

Robbie Ray's Tough Comeback

Robbie Ray is making his season debut very late into the year, almost in August, after recovering from a major injury. The first game back can often be challenging for pitchers, as they need time to regain their form and command.

Dodgers' Dominance Against Lefties

The Dodgers have been exceptionally good against left-handed pitchers this season, boasting the best record in MLB with a 26-10 mark. This ability to hit lefties effectively adds to their advantage in this matchup.

Head-to-Head Record

The Dodgers have a strong head-to-head record against the Giants this season, entering Tuesday with a 7-3 record and a +14 run differential. This trend of dominance is likely to continue given their current form and the Giants' struggles.

Tyler Glasnow's Reliable Performance

Tyler Glasnow has been a solid starter for the Dodgers, contributing to their success. The Dodgers have won 12 of the 18 games he has started, with 11 of those wins coming by two or more runs. Glasnow's shortest outing of the season was against the Giants, so a better performance is expected here.

Conclusion

Considering Ray's challenging return, the Dodgers' strong performance against lefties, and their head-to-head dominance, backing the Dodgers on the run line at +115 provides good value.

Bet: Dodgers -1.5 @ +115 / Wager: 4%