Maximize Your MLB Betting with BrownBagBets: Winning Strategies for July

We enter the home stretch of July sitting at 135% of our starting bankroll, and things are looking strong again for BrownBagBets. Our recent MLB improvements seem to be paying off, setting us up for a strong month with baseball betting. With the final eight days of July ahead, we continue our hyper-focused approach on MLB opportunities.

Today, we have 15 games to choose from, and we’ve identified the most valuable picks and best wager guidance. In the spirit of transparency and insight, we want to share what’s been working as we’ve adjusted our MLB strategy. We’ve seen greater returns by enhancing the weighting of a team’s most recent performance. This adjustment highlights that sports betting is never a “set it and forget” approach. While recent performance has always mattered in finding winning picks, we previously ranked it below a few other indicators. By raising its importance, we’ve seen different plays stand out, winning at a 15% greater rate.

As we look to today, let’s keep the winning ways going and make the most of the opportunities ahead!

MLB: Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians

Pitching Matchup and Depth

In this game, both teams feature struggling starters, but Cleveland’s Xzavion Curry (0-2, 5.19 ERA) appears to be the lesser of two evils compared to Detroit’s Joey Wentz (0-1, 5.22 ERA). While neither pitcher has shown dominance, Curry has a slightly better record and has exhibited flashes of potential. Importantly, neither starter is expected to last long, making the game likely to be decided by bullpen performance, where Cleveland holds a significant edge.

Superior Lineup and Bullpen

Cleveland’s lineup is far more potent compared to Detroit’s, giving the Guardians a strong advantage at the plate. Additionally, Cleveland’s bullpen has been reliable and should be able to cover the innings effectively once Curry exits the game. The combination of a better offense and a stronger bullpen puts Cleveland in a favorable position.

Avoiding Extended Losing Streaks

The Guardians are currently on a three-game losing streak, their fifth of the season. Notably, they have not lost four games in a row this year, indicating their ability to bounce back and avoid prolonged slumps. This trend adds confidence to their ability to secure a win in this game.

Bet: Guardians ML / Wager: 5%

MLB: St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates

Rested and Dominant Paul Skenes

Paul Skenes comes into Tuesday’s start well-rested and in top form. Following his standout performance in Milwaukee on July 11, where he threw 6 1/3 scoreless innings and struck out eight, he only pitched one inning at the All-Star Game. This minimal workload ensures he is fresh and ready to dominate once again. In his previous outing against the Cardinals, Skenes demonstrated his effectiveness, striking out eight in 6 1/3 scoreless innings. Given his exceptional stuff, the Cardinals will find no advantage this time around.

Pirates’ Strategic Rotation and Recent Form

The Pirates have smartly rested their best starters for the series against St. Louis, showcasing a savvy approach. Skenes, riding the momentum from the All-Star Game, will be key in this matchup. Pittsburgh is 8-3 when Skenes starts, including a 4-2 record at home, with three of those home wins being comfortable victories. This bodes well for their chances against a struggling Cardinals team.

Lance Lynn’s Decline and Pittsburgh’s Offensive Surge

Lance Lynn has been facing difficulties, with a 6.43 ERA over his last seven starts. His struggles were evident earlier this season when he allowed three runs in 4 1/3 innings against the Pirates. On the other hand, the Pirates have been on a roll, winning eight of their last ten games entering Monday, with six of those victories coming by multiple runs. The home crowd’s support and lively bats add to the Pirates’ advantage, making them a strong pick for the run line.

Bet: Pirates -1.5 @ +130 / Wager: 4%

Skenes’ Strikeout Prowess

Paul Skenes has consistently demonstrated his ability to rack up strikeouts. He has struck out at least eight batters in seven of his last eight starts, with the only miss being a seven-strikeout performance. Given his dominant showing against the Cardinals earlier this season, where he struck out eight in 6 1/3 innings, it’s reasonable to expect a similar or better performance this time around.

Rest and Recent Performance

With minimal innings pitched since his dominant start in Milwaukee, Skenes is well-rested and in prime condition to deliver another high-strikeout game. His impressive stuff and recent form make him a reliable bet to surpass the 7.5 strikeouts mark against a Cardinals lineup that struggled against him previously.

Bet: Paul Skenes Over 7.5 K’s / Wager: 4%

MLB: San Diego Padres at Washington Nationals

Pick: Padres ML @ +105 / Wager: 6%

San Diego’s Recent Form

San Diego Padres come into this game with momentum, having won the last two games of their three-game series against the Cleveland Guardians. In those wins, the Padres’ pitching staff was stellar, allowing only three hits combined. This indicates a strong form in their pitching lineup, which is crucial for maintaining their recent success.

Randy Vasquez’s Performance

Randy Vasquez, the former Yankee, has been impressive on the mound lately. Over his last four starts, he has posted a commendable 2.21 ERA, showcasing his ability to keep opposing hitters at bay. This form suggests that he can continue to perform at a high level against the Nationals, providing a solid foundation for the Padres in this matchup.

Washington’s Inconsistency

On the other side, the Washington Nationals might be overvalued due to their recent sweep of the Cincinnati Reds. While sweeping the Reds is noteworthy, it’s important to remember that the Reds have been inconsistent this season. Dave Martinez, the Nationals’ manager, is still considering several options for his starting pitcher tonight, which indicates a lack of stability and confidence in their rotation.

San Diego’s Advantage

San Diego’s strong recent pitching performances and the uncertainty surrounding Washington’s starting pitcher give the Padres a significant edge in this matchup. The Padres’ ability to limit hits and runs against a capable Guardians team suggests that they can handle the Nationals, especially given the Nationals’ erratic form.

Bet: Padres ML @ +105 / Wager: 6%

MLB: Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins

Pick: Twins ML @ +125 / Wager: 6%

Philadelphia’s Recent Form

While the Phillies have not been in a significant slump recently, their performance has lacked the spark seen earlier in the season, especially after their home sweep of the Dodgers. This dip in intensity might be attributed to their comfortable lead in the NL East, causing the team to appear somewhat complacent. Analyzing deeper, we see that Zack Wheeler, though a formidable pitcher, has not been a consistent road performer. The Phillies are 4-4 in his starts away from home, highlighting potential vulnerabilities when he pitches on the road.

Minnesota’s Home Advantage

In contrast, the Minnesota Twins have shown resilience and a solid home advantage. They have a capable starter in Simeon Woods Richardson, who boasts a respectable 3.51 ERA. Woods Richardson typically navigates through the middle innings effectively, providing a strong foundation for the Twins. Moreover, Minnesota has won his last four starts, indicating the team’s confidence and ability to support him on the mound.

Phillies’ Road Struggles

Philadelphia’s recent road form has been less than stellar, with five losses in their last six away games. This includes struggles to generate consistent offense and maintain leads, suggesting potential difficulties in this matchup against the Twins. The Phillies’ inconsistent road performance, combined with their recent lack of intensity, makes them vulnerable in this game.

Twins’ Momentum

Minnesota’s momentum, especially at home, positions them as a strong contender in this matchup. The team’s recent success with Woods Richardson starting provides a psychological edge, and the Twins will look to capitalize on Philadelphia’s road inconsistencies. With a balanced approach on both offense and defense, the Twins are well-equipped to handle the Phillies.

In conclusion, considering the Phillies’ road struggles, Wheeler’s mixed performance away from home, and the Twins’ solid form and home advantage, betting on the Twins to win offers significant value.

Bet: Twins ML @ +125 / Wager: 6%

MLB: Chicago White Sox at Texas Rangers

White Sox Offensive Struggles

The Chicago White Sox have struggled offensively, managing to score only three runs over the entire weekend series in Kansas City before “erupting” for three runs in a 4-3 loss to the Rangers last night. This offensive drought has been a recurring theme for the Pale Hose, contributing to their current eight-game losing streak and having lost eleven of their last twelve games. Given their current form, it is difficult to envision them putting up significant runs against Jon Gray and the Rangers.

Rangers’ Jon Gray’s Effectiveness

Jon Gray, the Rangers’ starting pitcher for tonight, has been consistently effective this season. With the White Sox’s ongoing struggles at the plate, Gray is well-positioned to keep their offense in check. His ability to limit runs and maintain control on the mound will be crucial in ensuring a low-scoring game.

Garrett Crochet’s Dominance

On the other side, Garrett Crochet has been a bright spot for the White Sox, particularly since the start of May. With an impressive 1.47 ERA, Crochet has demonstrated his ability to keep opposing offenses at bay. Given the Rangers’ lineup, if Crochet can continue his dominant form, he should be able to limit Texas’s scoring opportunities effectively.

Recent Trends and Matchup Dynamics

The combination of Chicago’s offensive struggles and the solid pitching expected from both Gray and Crochet points towards a low-scoring affair. The White Sox have consistently found it difficult to generate runs, and while they managed three runs last night, their overall trend suggests that such outbursts are the exception rather than the norm. Additionally, with Crochet potentially being showcased ahead of the trade deadline, there is added motivation for a strong performance on the mound.

In conclusion, with both teams likely to struggle offensively and two capable pitchers on the mound, the under 7.5 total runs appears to be a strong bet for this matchup.

Bet: Under 7.5 / Wager: 6%