BrownBagBets is Grateful for Games: Thanksgiving Day of NFL and NCAA Basketball Plays
As we gather around the Thanksgiving table, laden with the bounty of the season, our hearts at BrownBagBets are filled with a profound sense of gratitude. Today, we’re not just celebrating a holiday; we’re honoring the trust and faith you, our cherished community, place in us. Your belief in our vision and your unwavering support are the cornerstones of our journey, and for that, we are deeply thankful.
In the spirit of Thanksgiving, a day steeped in tradition and togetherness, we bring you a carefully curated selection of NFL and NCAA Basketball plays. These picks are more than just numbers and odds; they represent the culmination of our shared passion, the result of a collective pursuit of excellence in the world of sports betting.
As the NFL action unfolds, bringing with it the strategic depth and exhilarating moments we all relish, let us also turn our attention to the dynamic world of NCAA Basketball. Each game, each play, resonates with the excitement and potential that makes sports betting a journey worth embarking on.
Today, as we give thanks for the blessings in our lives, let us also celebrate the unity and strength of our BrownBagBets community. Together, we’ve created a space where passion meets strategy, where every bet is a step towards our collective goal. So, as you enjoy the holiday with loved ones, join us in embracing the thrill of the game, the joy of shared success, and the promise of many more victories to come.
Game #1: Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions, 12:30 PM, Fox
Pick: Lions -7.5 / Wager: 5% Bankroll
The Lions at -7.5 is not just a bet on the team’s current form and matchup advantages; it’s also a strategic choice backed by historical Thanksgiving Day trends. Since 2004, favorites have shown remarkable strength on Thanksgiving, with a record of 46-8 straight up (SU) and 36-18 against the spread (ATS). This trend becomes even more pronounced when looking at favorites of seven points or more, who are 21-2 SU and 17-6 ATS since 2006.
Furthermore, public betting patterns on Thanksgiving also favor the Lions. Favorites with 60% or more of the tickets have a strong track record of 22-8 ATS. When considering public sides (teams with 51% or more of the tickets), they stand at 32-18 ATS. More specifically, public sides who are also favorites have an even more impressive record of 28-13 ATS.
In the case of the Lions at -7.5, the betting patterns align favorably with these trends. Currently, -7.5 has attracted 72% of the tickets and 80% of the total money, indicating strong public and monetary support. This, combined with the Lions’ home-field advantage, Jared Goff’s potential for a strong comeback, and the Packers’ defensive vulnerabilities, makes the Lions at -7.5 a sophisticated and historically informed bet for Thanksgiving Day.
Pick: David Montgomery Over 66.5 Rushing Yards / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Montgomery’s impressive form, averaging 4.9 yards per carry, positions him well to exploit Green Bay’s vulnerable run defense. His consistent scoring and strong performance post-injury make this a solid bet.
Pick: Jahmyr Gibbs Over 77.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Gibbs has been consistently hitting over 90 scrimmage yards in recent games. His role in the Lions’ offense, especially against a tired Packers defense, should see him easily surpass this total.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Over 80.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 3% Bankroll
St. Brown’s performance is expected to be strong in a game where the Lions will likely leverage their passing game effectively against the Packers’ defense.
Pick: David Montgomery 2+ TDs @ +380 / Wager: 2% Bankroll
Given Montgomery’s scoring streak and the Packers’ defensive weaknesses, betting on him to score multiple touchdowns seems like a high-value wager.
Pick: Jared Goff Over 1.5 TDs / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Despite his recent struggles, Goff’s potential for a rebound against the Packers’ defense, which is weaker against the run and has a low interception rate, makes this a promising bet.
Game #2: Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys, 4:30 PM, CBS
Pick #1: Washington +13.5 / Wager: 5% Bankroll
The Cowboys’ impressive home record (17-5 SU and 15-7 ATS over the last three seasons, including 4-0 SU and ATS this season) suggests a strong performance. However, the Commanders’ ability to keep games close, coupled with the significant betting interest (48% of the tickets and 73% of the money on Washington +13.5), indicates they can cover the spread.
Pick #2: Over 48.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll
Both teams have shown a propensity for high-scoring games, especially the Cowboys at home. The expectation of a shootout, driven by the Cowboys’ offensive prowess and the Commanders’ scoring potential, makes the Over 48.5 a solid bet.
Pick #3: CeeDee Lamb over 90.5 yards receiving / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Lamb, averaging over 100 receiving yards this season, is due for a bounceback against Washington’s vulnerable defense. With the Cowboys likely to maintain offensive pressure, Lamb is expected to be a primary target, making it probable he’ll exceed 90.5 yards.
Pick #4: Brandin Cooks over 37.5 rushing + receiving yards / Wager: 3% Bankroll
With Gallup’s reduced playtime, Cooks steps up as a key offensive player. His recent target rate and the matchup against Washington’s struggling defense suggest he’ll easily surpass 37.5 yards from scrimmage.
Game # 3: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks, 8:20 PM, NBC
Pick #1: 49ers -7 / Wager:
The 49ers’ robust defense, particularly after the addition of Chase Young, is well-positioned to dominate against a potentially Geno Smith-led Seahawks or even Drew Lock. The 49ers’ past performance against the Seahawks, including sweeping them last year, supports their ability to cover the spread.
Pick #2: 49ers over 24.5 Points / Wager:
San Francisco’s offense, averaging 28 points per game, has consistently surpassed this total, especially against weaker defenses like Seattle’s. Their balanced attack through the air and on the ground makes them likely to exceed 24.5 points.
Pick #3: Christian McCaffrey over 113.5 yards rushing + receiving / Wager:
McCaffrey’s historical performance against Seattle (686 scrimmage yards in 4 games) and his significant role in the 49ers’ offense position him well to surpass 113.5 yards. The likelihood of heavy utilization in this critical divisional matchup further supports this pick.
Pick #4: George Kittle over 51.5 receiving yards / Wager:
Kittle’s recent resurgence, combined with the Seahawks’ vulnerability to tight ends (allowing 7.7 yards per attempt and 76% completion to TEs), makes it likely he’ll exceed 51.5 receiving yards. His successful history against Seattle, especially with Purdy at QB, adds to the confidence in this pick.
NCAA Football Play
Egg Bowl: #12 Ole Miss @ Mississippi State, 7:30 PM, ESPN
Pick: Under 54.5 / Wager 4% Bankroll
This one ends up being a pure data play for us, and since our NCAAF track record is strong when this is the case, we enter this one with confidence. The statistics show strong defensive capabilities on both sides, with Ole Miss displaying a significant edge in pass defense, a critical factor in controlling the game’s tempo. Mississippi State’s slower seconds per play (27.9) suggests a less aggressive offensive strategy, which could lead to fewer scoring opportunities. Additionally, the rush success and line yards are closely matched, indicating a likely battle for control in the trenches, where time-consuming ground games prevail over quick scores. Market trends reveal sharp bettors heavily favoring the under, driving the line down from 57.5 to 54.5, a testament to their confidence in a lower-scoring affair. Finally, aligning with top college football bettors who have a history of success further supports the under as the strategic play in this matchup.
NCAA Basketball Plays
Game #1: Penn State @ Texas A&M, 12 PM, ESPN
Pick: Under 159.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Texas A&M’s coach, Buzz Williams, is known for a strong defensive strategy, which likely means a game focused on defense, decreasing the chances of a high-scoring outcome. Penn State has undergone significant changes, losing key offensive players, which is reflected in their drop to 147th in offensive efficiency and 254th in 3-point shooting percentage. Despite playing up-tempo, Mike Rhoades’ Penn State team has shown a strong defensive start, ranking 38th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Texas A&M’s shooting struggles, particularly from beyond the arc with only a 24.7% success rate this season, suggest difficulties in scoring heavily. Given both teams’ current dynamics, with A&M’s balanced but not sharpshooting offense and Penn State’s rebuilding phase, the under 136.5 becomes a compelling option based on the provided data and historical performance.
Game #2: University Northern Iowa @ Texas Tech, 12 PM, ESPN
Pick: Over 135.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
We’ve got a projection on this one of 141. Northern Iowa has gone over in 4/5.
Game #3: Boston College @ Loyola Chicago Illinois, 1:30 PM
Pick: Over 141 / Wager : 3% Bankroll
We’ve got a projection here of 145.
Game #4: FAU @ Butler, 2:30 PM
Pick: Butler + 7 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
We can’t seem to find a single model/projection that has this game at anything more than a 3 point game. FAU’s offensive challenges, highlighted by scoring only 51 points against Bryant, indicate potential struggles that Butler’s defense could exacerbate. Despite FAU’s previous success from beyond the arc, their dip to a 33.3% 3-point shooting percentage this season may hinder their ability to pull away, making Butler at +7 a strong position. Butler’s defense is formidable, ranking 55th in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency, and their ability to force turnovers and limit scoring inside the arc could keep the game close. The Bulldogs’ strong defensive stats, including a notable 27% allowed 3-point percentage, suggest they can contain FAU’s shooters, which is crucial for covering the spread. Lastly, with a seasoned player like Posh Alexander, who averages 2.3 steals per game, Butler’s capacity to disrupt FAU’s backcourt adds confidence in their ability to cover.
Game #5: Memphis @ Arkansas, 5:00 PM
Pick: Memphis ML @ +105 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Our projections have Memphis winning outright here 58% of the time, love that with a +105 odds play. 92% of the total cash has them covering the 1.5 and 90% on them with the ML.
Game #6: Boise State @ Virginia Tech, 8:00 PM
Pick: Over 141.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Virginia Tech’s strong shooting performance, with a 37% success rate from the 3-point line and an impressive 57.2% from inside the arc, suggests they have the firepower to push the total score up. Boise State, while historically good at limiting outside shots, has shown some early susceptibility by allowing a 35.3% shooting percentage from deep, which Virginia Tech could exploit to drive up the score. The Broncos’ top-80 rankings in both Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency indicate they have the capability to engage in a high-scoring affair, especially against a team that focuses more on offense. With Boise State’s array of solid players who can score from deep and contribute on the glass, they have the potential to keep up with Virginia Tech’s scoring, making for a competitive and high-scoring game. Given both teams have shown they can score in double digits across multiple players, this matchup has the ingredients for a game where the offense could shine, lending support to the over 141.5.
Thanksgiving Day Bonus Plays
Parlay: Arizona ML/USC ML @ +119 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Arizona’s significant size advantage and ability to score in the paint, as evidenced by their national ranking of 10th in post-up points per possession, positions them strongly against Michigan State’s less formidable interior defense. With Arizona running a fast-paced offense that has proven effective against strong defenses, their ability to disrupt Michigan State’s pick-and-roll plays with top-tier ball-screen defense enhances their chances of a win. On the USC front, their duo of Isaiah Collier and Arrinten Page have exceeded expectations defensively, ranking as the two best defenders on the roster, which could stifle opponents’ scoring. USC’s history of elite rim defense seems to be continuing with a minor setback, as shown by holding previous opponents to under 40% from inside the arc. The combined defensive prowess and offensive efficiency of Arizona and USC, alongside the advantageous odds of +119, make this parlay an attractive option for a bet.
Future: Iowa St to win ESPN Invitational @ +290 / Wager: 3% Bankroll
Having a little fun with this one. A very solid field for this 4 day tournament. The Cyclones excel in their defensive game, entering the tournament with an impressive ranking of second in Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Despite facing no notable opponents yet, their undefeated 4-0 record has earned them the 13th spot in the overall KenPom rankings, the highest in the tournament field. Players like Tamin Lipsey, Robert Jones, and Curtis Jones are adept at creating turnovers, which is poised to challenge VCU’s offensive strategy. Their notable defensive turnover rate of 30% compared to a mere 12.7% on the offensive end is likely to be a decisive factor in their games throughout the season.
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