Game Day Deals: Black Friday’s Most Valuable Picks !

What a day we had yesterday at BrownBagBets! Our strategic plays and insightful picks have once again proven their worth, catapulting our bankroll to an impressive 114%. It’s not just about the numbers; it’s about the exhilarating journey we’re on together. As we revel in a 3-day winning streak, particularly in college basketball with another remarkable 5-2 day, it’s clear that our collective wisdom and betting acumen are paying off.

Our prowess in NCAAF continues to be the cornerstone of our success, with a solid 1-0 performance yesterday, bringing our November tally to an impressive 26-14. This isn’t just betting; it’s a masterclass in sports analysis and strategic wagering.

And let’s not forget the drama and excitement brought to us by Iowa State’s stunning comeback against VCU. This victory wasn’t just a win; it was a testament to our foresight in the ESPN Invitational. As Iowa State gears up to take on Virginia Tech in the semifinal, our future bet remains very much alive, adding another layer of thrill to today’s betting landscap

NFL Friday Play

Miami Dolphins @ NY Jets, 3:00 PM, Amazon Prim Video

Pick: Under 41.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

The over/under at 41.5 may seem low for a matchup involving a high-scoring team like Miami, but key insights suggest a tighter game. Miami’s offense, while explosive, could be tempered by the Jets’ defense, which has been steadily improving. New York’s switch to Tim Boyle at quarterback might not inspire a surge in scoring, especially given Miami’s defense, which has been adept at limiting opponents’ scoring opportunities.

Moreover, weather conditions and the playing surface at MetLife Stadium can affect play styles, often leading to more conservative game plans with an emphasis on ball control and time of possession, which could further suppress scoring. Special teams’ performance and turnover margins, which are unpredictable yet significantly impact game flow and scoring, should also be taken into account.

Pick: Raheem Mostert over 58.5 rushing yards / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Given that the Dolphins are entering this game as strong favorites and the Jets have been vulnerable to the run, the inclination might be to back Mostert to exceed the 58.5 rushing yards total. However, it’s worth considering the dynamic of the Dolphins’ offense. If Miami secures an early lead, there’s potential for a varied offensive strategy in the second half, which might include a more balanced attack rather than a run-heavy approach. This could limit Mostert’s opportunities to accumulate rushing yards.

Additionally, the Dolphins’ offensive line performance and the Jets’ defensive adjustments at halftime should be factored into the equation. While Mostert has been consistent, the Jets’ coaching staff will likely prepare to contain him, especially if they anticipate a run-focused game plan from Miami. Also, with the potential return of the rookie De’Von Achane, the backfield duties could be more divided than usual, further impacting Mostert’s chances of hitting the over on his rushing yards.

Pick: Tyreek Hill over 76.5 Yards Receiving / Wager: 3% Bankroll

NCAAF Friday Plays

Game #1: Memphis Tigers @ Temple Owls, 12 PM, ESPN

Pick: Over 64 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

For the over 64 in the Memphis vs. Temple game, the analysis leans on several key points. Firstly, Memphis has consistently put up high numbers on the scoreboard, demonstrating an offense that can break through even the stiffest defenses. They have a track record of scoring 34 or more points in recent games, which shows their capability to contribute significantly to the over.

Secondly, despite Temple’s struggles this season, they have shown resilience in their recent matchups, staying competitive against teams like USF and UAB. With E.J. Warner back at quarterback, the team’s offensive capabilities are enhanced, suggesting they could engage in a back-and-forth scoring dynamic with Memphis.

Moreover, Memphis’s defensive challenges are notable; they have one of the nation’s worst defenses on early downs. This vulnerability could be exploited by Temple’s offense, leading to more scoring drives. The idea that Memphis can’t “stop a nosebleed” implies that even if Temple doesn’t typically put up big numbers, they have a chance to do so against such a weak defense.

Additionally, the lack of stakes for Memphis might paradoxically lead to a more open game. With the pressure of title hopes gone, Memphis could play a less conservative game, potentially leading to more risks taken on the field that can result in higher scores for both teams.

Lastly, historical precedent in the AAC has shown that games involving Memphis can spiral into high-scoring affairs, as evidenced by their earlier season results. Even if Temple’s defense manages some stops, Memphis’s offensive pace and their own defensive shortcomings could combine to push the total score over the 64 mark.

Game # 2: University of Texas at San Antonio @ #22 Tulane, 3:30 PM,

Pick: UTSA over 23.5 Points / Wager: 3% Bankroll

The winner of this matchup will advance to the AAC Championship game, as both teams are in the conference title hunt for the second straight year.

Tulane will try to defend its AAC Championship, but something about it hasn’t looked quite right all season. The Green Wave are 10-1 straight up but have gone just 4-7 against the spread, failing to cover against the worst teams in the conference.

Quarterback Michael Pratt is still fantastic and the leader of this offense. The Green Wave have talent at the receiver position, but their top two targets in Lawrence Keys and Jha’Quan Jackson both missed last week with injury.

Keys has already been ruled out against UTSA, and Jackson is questionable.

Those would be huge losses because Tulane doesn’t run the ball well. Makhi Hughes has OK numbers, but the Green Wave rank just 107th in Rushing Success Rate and 109th in explosiveness on the ground.

They have not been able to replace the explosiveness of Tyjae Spears, who was such a big part of last year’s title run.

So much talent from last year’s defense moved on, which has caused the unit to really struggle to defend the pass. The Green Wave have been really good against the run, but opponents are completing 66% of their passes against the Tulane secondary, which is the worst mark in the conference.

That is going to be a massive problem against Roadrunners quarterback Frank Harris. The veteran Harris has 52 career games under his belt and has been at UTSA so long that he likely has a Ph.D. already.

Dr. Harris leads an offense that ranks 28th in the nation in Passing Success Rate despite battling injuries early in the year.

He has excellent chemistry with Joshua Cephus, the school’s all-time leading receiver, while Kevorian Barnes leads an explosive backfield.

UTSA’s defense has been excellent against the pass this season and should be able to keep Pratt in check.

Rashad Wisdom is the quarterback of this defense, and the tackling machine is one of the best safeties in the country. On the outside, the Roadrunners have two great cornerbacks, including Kam Alexander who ranks fifth in the country in passes defensed.

These two teams have played five common opponents this season — UAB, North Texas, Rice, ECU and FAU. Tulane beat those teams by 12, 7, 2, 3 and 16 points. UTSA beat them by 21, 8, 20, 14 and 26. The Roadrunners beat every common opponent by more than the Green Wave.

Dating back to their time in Conference USA, the Roadrunners have now won 16 consecutive conference games. UTSA enters this game playing better football right now and has a good matchup with Dr. Harris and this passing attack against a vulnerable Tulane secondary.

Game #3: Miami Hurricanes @ Boston College Eagles, 12 PM, ABC

Pick: Boston College +10.5 / Wager: 3%

The data reveals a telling story: despite only receiving 46% of the bets, Boston College has attracted a whopping 94% of the money. This indicates that the more experienced bettors with substantial stakes are favoring BC, which is a strong signal of the value on that side.

Defensively, Boston College stands out, particularly in their tackling, where they rank significantly higher than Miami. This level of defensive prowess is key in a matchup like this, where preventing after-contact yardage can be the difference between a close game and a blowout.

On the offensive side, the stats suggest that while BC might not be a powerhouse, they’re up against a Miami defense that has shown weaknesses in crucial areas such as pass success and drive finishing. This gives BC a tangible path to keep the game within the spread.

Moreover, the intangibles are in BC’s favor. The game’s being played in Boston, with cold weather conditions that Miami players might not be accustomed to. This climate factor can often act as a great equalizer.

Adding to the narrative, expert opinions, underline doubts about Miami’s coaching effectiveness this season, suggesting potential for mistakes that Boston College could capitalize on.

In sum, combining the sharp money indications, Boston College’s defensive strengths, Miami’s potential underperformance, and situational factors, we see BC not just keeping it close, but challenging Miami throughout the game, making Boston College +10.5 a compelling bet.

Game #4: Oregon State Beavers @ Oregon Ducks, 8:30 PM, Fox

Pick: Oregon State +13.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

The case for taking Oregon State with the +13.5 points is quite compelling when looking at the matchup with Oregon. Our staff consensus is strong on this position, especially in a rivalry game where stakes and emotions run high. The betting trends show that there’s a significant 17% differential between the percentage of bets and the percentage of money placed on Oregon State, signaling that savvy bettors with larger stakes are backing the Beavers.

Oregon State’s offense is grounded in a powerful rushing attack that ranks among the nation’s best. With a backfield led by the emerging Damien Martinez, who has been racking up yards and touchdowns with impressive efficiency, the Beavers have the tools to control the clock and keep Oregon’s potent offense on the sidelines. This run-first approach is strategic, playing directly into the weakness of the Oregon defense and potentially easing the pressure on quarterback DJ Uiagalelei.

Moreover, Oregon State’s balanced offensive scheme should keep the Ducks’ defense guessing, and if Uiagalelei can maintain his form, it adds a dimension to the Beavers’ attack. With the modeled Projections suggesting only an 11.8-point differential, the current line offers a slight edge to Oregon State backers.

In rivalry games, the expected performance can often be closer than projections suggest, and the Oregon State Beavers have the offensive firepower and strategic advantage on the ground to cover the +13.5 spread. The smart play here is to back the visiting Beavers, especially if you can lock in the spread at 13 points or better.

NCAAB Friday Plays:

Game #1: Jax State @ UTSA, 1 PM, ESPN +

Pick: UTSA +2.5 / Wager: 4% Bankroll

The betting trends indicate a positive sentiment towards UTSA, which is underlined by the fact that a significant percentage of the money is backing them despite a less favorable betting percentage. This suggests that the larger stakes are confident in UTSA’s ability to cover the spread, or potentially win outright.

UTSA’s recent performance has shown they are competitive, and the presence of a standout point guard who leads in assists is a crucial factor in college basketball. Effective ball distribution and court leadership often translate to scoring opportunities and tight games. Additionally, the fact that UTSA is playing at home cannot be overlooked; home-court advantage is a well-documented phenomenon in college sports.

Considering the recent schedule and performance, UTSA has demonstrated resilience, and the matchup against their opponent seems favorable when accounting for UTSA’s home performance and key players’ form. Based on these factors, the confidence in UTSA +2.5 is justified, warranting a bet size above the average due to the perceived value in this line.

Game #2: Texas A&M @ FAU, 11 am

Pick: over 141.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Game #3: Penn State @ Butler, 1:30 PM

Pick: Over 147.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Game #4: Davidson @ St. Mary’s, 4 PM

Pick: Davidson +9.5/ Wager: 3% Bankroll

Game #5: Baylor @ Florida, 5:30 PM

Pick: Over 157.5 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Game: Jacksonville @ Robert Morris

Pick: Robert Morris ML / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Friday NHL Plays:

Game #1: LA Kings @ SJ Sharks

Pick: Kings -1.5 @ +126/ Wager: 3% Bankroll

The argument in favor of the LA Kings covering a -1.5 spread against the Anaheim Ducks is robust when considering the current form and statistics. The Kings have a strong away record, standing undefeated in recent games, and they’ve consistently outperformed the Ducks in head-to-head matchups. With the Kings’ offense ranking second in goals and their powerplay percentage being one of the best in the league, they have the firepower to secure a win by multiple goals.

The Ducks, on the other hand, are struggling defensively, sitting in the middle of the pack in goals allowed and having one of the worst save percentages in the league. They also have a less than stellar home record, which doesn’t bode well against a team with a solid away performance like the Kings.

The situational results further emphasize the Kings’ dominance, with a significantly better overall and last 10 games record compared to the Ducks. Additionally, LA’s offense and defense statistics are superior, particularly in goal scoring and blocked shots, which could translate into a strong defensive game coupled with high offensive output.

The odds of +126 for Kings -1.5 indicate value, given the trends and statistics that suggest the Kings have a significant edge. The combination of the Kings’ potent offense, their impeccable away record, and the Ducks’ defensive struggles, especially in goaltending, underpin the confidence in LA covering the spread.

Game #2: Winnipeg Jets @ Florida Panthers

Pick: Jets ML @ + 117 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Looking at the matchup between the Winnipeg Jets and the Florida Panthers, taking the Jets on the moneyline at +117 odds presents a valuable opportunity. The betting trends indicate that while the Jets are receiving a smaller percentage of bets, they have a substantial portion of the money wagered on them, suggesting that bigger bets and possibly more informed bettors are backing Winnipeg.

Statistically, the Jets have a robust offense, ranking high in goals scored. Their shooting percentage is commendable as well, which could pose a threat to the Panthers’ defense that has been relatively average. Winnipeg’s special teams performance, particularly their powerplay, may not be top-tier, but their solid overall offense and the ability to block shots — a key defensive metric — could offset this.

Furthermore, the head-to-head record shows that Winnipeg has had success against Florida in recent matchups, and their overall record is strong, with a positive run in the last 10 games. The situational results also favor Winnipeg, indicating that as underdogs, they’ve been performing well.

Given the Jets’ competitive edge in offense, coupled with the Panthers’ less impressive stats, particularly in shooting percentage and save percentage, the Jets have a strong chance of a win. The moneyline odds of +117 for Winnipeg reflect good value, and with the public betting differential indicating confidence from seasoned bettors, it supports the decision to place a bet on the Jets in this game.

Special 2 Team Parlay:

Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes ML (NCAAF)/Boston Bruins ML @ +228 / Wager: 3% Bankroll

Based on the information provided in the images, here’s an analysis for the parlay of Iowa Football Moneyline (ML) and Boston Bruins Moneyline (ML) at +228:

Iowa Football ML:

Iowa is presented as an underdog with a spread of +2.5 against Nebraska. However, the simulation (SIM) numbers indicate a 58% chance of Iowa covering the spread and a 53% chance of winning outright (Moneyline +123). The projection score also favors Iowa over Nebraska (17-15). Moreover, the commentary from “Severance Pays” suggests a belief in Iowa’s superiority despite being an underdog. This underdog status can offer a higher value in a parlay.

Boston Bruins ML:

The Boston Bruins display a significantly strong record overall (14-1) and an impeccable home record (7-0), indicating a robust performance, especially when playing on home ice. The Bruins are favorites, and their statistics in the offense are impressive, ranking 1st in goals and shooting percentage, which can be crucial in determining the outcome of a game. The comparison with Detroit’s stats, which are much lower in key defensive areas, suggests a clear advantage for Boston.

Parlay Analysis (+228):

The combination of these two bets into a parlay offers enhanced value. Iowa’s strong chance of winning against the spread, and potentially outright, paired with the Bruins’ dominant statistics and home record, can be seen as a calculated risk. The odds of +228 imply that the bookmakers see this as a less likely outcome, which is precisely why it can offer great value. If both teams perform to their strengths, the parlay could be a rewarding wager.

Remember, while the analysis might favor this parlay, betting on sports always involves a significant degree of uncertainty. It’s essential to bet responsibly and within one’s means, which is why the BrownBagBets philosophy to bankroll management is the key. Enjoy the day and let’s get this bag!!!